“For the Day of the Lord will come like a Thief in the Night.”
– 1 Thessalonians 5:2
And just so, this year’s June Election is likely to sneak up on you and bite you on the ass – it is exactly four months away today (Monday Feb. 7) and have you put any thought into who you’re going to vote for, who you’re going to donate to, who you’re going to walk / phonebank for, who you’re going to tell all your friends about?
I’ve decided to call it the “June Election” rather than a “Primary” because many of the races will be “GAME OVER” on June 7, and some of those are important. There are three categories of races in a California June Election:
1. Simple Plurality (OCBOE)
The two races for the OC Board of Education, in which the county’s sane people have an outside chance of transforming that madhouse into a useful, constructive body, is “simple plurality” – just one shot. In a race with a lot of candidates somebody could win with only 20%. In 2020 Tim Shaw won with 33% of the vote, while three Democrats (including the saboteur Jordan Brandman) split up the other 67% – let’s not do that again this year! (Tim is a nice guy for a conservative Republican, and I voted for him for Supervisor in 2018, but on the OCBOE he’s just one more vote for Ken Williams’ nutty and wasteful Clown Crusades.)
This year, alt-right Williams allies Mari Barke (in HB/Seal Beach/Garden Grove area) and Lisa Sparks (South County) are up for re-election, and if there’s an unprecedented June 7 blue wave (from Democrats and other decent people) we could be replacing them and transforming the Board. But we can’t have more than one decent candidate in these races this time, and you all have to remember to VOTE “DOWNBALLOT.” We’ll let you know who the challengers are when they announce – the deadline for ALL these races is March 11!
Then there’s…
2. Top Two, OR 50% plus 1 Wins
A lot of June races are a kind of hybrid where if a candidate gets over 50% they win, and otherwise the top two go on to November – most notably the DA, Sheriff, and Supervisors.
DISTRICT ATTORNEY. This historic race is the most important one in the County this year. It’s well-known that this blogger, who had high hopes for Todd Spitzer as a reformer, is bitterly disappointed in him, and glad to see the progressive DPOC-backed prosecutor Pete Hardin taking on the deranged demagogue. But it put a lot of pressure onto the June election, since there was a good chance either of them could break 50%. Now that a third viable candidate has joined the race, the respectable bloodthirsty conservative Michael Jacobs, it’s very unlikely any of them will break 50% (unless a WHOLE LOT of Democrats come out in June) so two of them will go on to November. I’m betting that’ll be Spitzer vs Hardin, though Hardin vs Jacobs would be better.
SHERIFF. We’d love to see the smooth authoritarian Don Barnes gone, but nobody seems to be taking him on yet.
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS – see what district you’re in!
SUPERVISOR DISTRICT 2. In this Central-County Latino-majority district, including Santa Ana and a lot of East Anaheim, so far we have Santa Ana Mayor Vincente Sarmiento running against Garden Grove inquisitor Kim Bernice Nguyen, and no incumbent. We wrote about this race here.
SUPERVISOR DISTRICT 4. In this Northwest-County district, incumbent Doug Chaffee is being challenged by Sunny Kim, and right now we’re tilting toward Sunny. We also wrote about this here.
SUPERVISOR DISTRICT 5. In this South Coastal district stretching from Costa Mesa and Newport to San Clemente, quasi-incumbent Democrat Katrina Foley (an Orange Juice favorite) WAS running against the awful Diane Harkey, but the Republicans have just recruited octogenarian politician Pat Bates; we don’t know yet if Diane will be forced to withdraw. We wrote about this here.
OTHER MINOR RACES – There are other races in this category that most of us don’t pay much attention to, and sometimes the incumbents are so uncontroversial that nobody runs against them. That would include Assessor, Auditor-controller, Clerk (everyone loves Hugh Nguyen), Treasurer (everyone loves Shari Freidenrich), Superintendent of Schools (Al Mijares does just fine), Superior Court Judges (who Greg will probably write about), Community College Boards, and … actually we DO care about OC Water District members – Kelly Rowe should sail to re-election, and kleptocrat Dina Nguyen (in the Garden Grove area) will hopefully be challenged by someone honest.
UPDATE: State Board of Equalization should go here too. I’ll write more about this soon, but I know I’m for OJ friend David Dodson!
3. Traditional Top-Two Jungle Primary
These are the races where the top two from June go on to face each other in November, even if one candidate got 90% and the other got 10%. That’s basically Congress, State Senate and Assembly.
First, see what Congressional, Senate, and Assembly districts you’re in!
And now I’ll just share, from this handy Register resource, the folks currently running to represent YOU:
Congressional Races
- 38 – La Habra (and LA County) – longtime incumbent Dem Linda Sanchez challenged by three nobodies.
- 40 – North/East White/Republican district – Republican incumbent Young Kim‘s to lose unfortunately; challenged by maverick conservative Mission Viejo Mayor Greg Raths, psycho Trumpy Nick Taurus, and a Democrat named Asif Mahmood.
- 45 – Majority Asian, Democrat-favoring district going from Fullerton and West Anaheim thru Cerritos and then catching all of Little Saigon. We are rooting hard for Democrat Jay Chen and against Trumpy Republican Michelle Steel; Cerritos Democrat Joseph Cho has also thrown his hat in, and is the only one who lives in the district. If you squint really hard you might think all these candidates are Vietnamese, but none of them are.
- 46 – the central county (SA/East Anaheim) Latino district, where we are rooting for progressive Mike Ortega to beat heavy favorite Conservative Democrat incumbent Lou Correa; there are also a couple of clowns in the race.
- 47 – coastal district from Seal to Laguna Beaches plus Irvine; Democrat superstar Katie Porter will be trying to hang on to this, and is being challenged by three Republicans – lobbyist and former OCGOP chairman Scott Baugh, Brian “Make HB Great Again” Burley, and the psychotic Amy Phan West. Which Republican will make it through June to get clobbered in November by the hyper-funded Porter?
- 49, south county and into SD. We didn’t like Democrat Mike Levin at first but he’s been doing a great job his first two terms. He’s being challenged by three Republicans – corrupt, termed-out Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, former SJC mayor Brian Maryott, and some guy from Oceanslime.
State Senate – notice how it’s the EVEN-numbered seats that come up in 2018, 2022, 2026, etc.
- 30 – Brea and some LA hinterlands – a VERY Democratic district – incumbent Pico Rivera Dem Bob Archuleta challenged by another Dem, Henry Bouchot of Whittier.
- 32 – Yorba Linda and hinterlands of 3 other counties – a VERY Republican district – so far only Murietta assemblyman Kelly Seyarto (hey isn’t that where Steve Lodge really lives?)
- 34 – Damn, Josh Newman WAS my senator, now Tom Umberg is. So far Tom is the only one running for this district which goes from south Whittier in L.A. County and swings southeast to include part of Fullerton, La Habra, Buena Park and Orange plus most of Anaheim and Santa Ana; very Democratic and Latino district. We deserve a better Democrat.
- 36 – Cerritos, Little Saigon, and coastal OC from Seal to Laguna Beach (Wow, sounds huge!) Decent HB Democrat Kim Carr is taking on corrupt nightmare Janet Nguyen who just keeps bouncing from office to office.
- 38 – inland south OC (Mission Viejo, San Juan Capistrano, etc, down into San Diego County) – a Democratic district – and here’s where Joe Kerr has popped up his gopher head again (at least he really lives there), along with three others that who has ever heard of them. (Seriously maybe Democratic Encinitas mayor Catherine Blakespear has the best chance.)
Assembly
- 59 – so far nobody is challenging mediocre Republican incumbent Philip Chen for this boring and depressing white Republican district which includes Yorba Linda, Placentia, Brea, Anaheim Hills and North Tustin along with Chino Hills.
- 64 – La Habra and a shitload of LA County, VERY Democratic. Surprise, our old friend Rose “Rosie’s Garage” Espinoza is running there, along with a shitload of LA Democrats we’ve never heard of.
- 67 – is now the number of Sharon Quirk-Silva‘s very Democratic and Asian-American district including Fullerton, Buena Park, Cypress and west Anaheim plus Cerritos; this year’s Republican sacrificial lamb is one Sou Moua of Stanton; there’s also some person nobody knows anything about and I don’t have time to type their name.
- 68 – a brave young man we love, Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente, is taking on the most conservative Democrat in the assembly (and whitest man in OC) Tom Daly, in the very Democratic Santa Ana-Orange-Anaheim Latino district. We’ll be rooting, and working, for Boomer!
- 70 – this Little Saigon district has a large Democratic advantage, surprisingly, so you’d think Garden Grove Democrat Diedre Nguyen (whom we like a lot) would have an advantage over the four mediocre Republicans she’s up against – Kimberly Ho, Ted Bui, Tri Ta, and Emily Hibard.
- 71 – Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, and the hardcore boondocks up to Temecula, very Republican, very white, so far an RSM Republican lady is taking on the Temecula mayor like a couple of tarantulas in a jar.
- 72 – coastal OC from Seal to Laguna Beach (thus including HB and NB.) Very Republican and white. Newport Reep Diane Dixon probably has an advantage over Lake Forest Reep Benjamin Yu and Laguna Beach Democratic Animal Rights Activist Judie Mancuso (who I THINK used to direct a children’s choir that I accompanied a long time ago.)
- 73 – this Irvine / Costa Mesa / Tustin district heavily favors Democrats, so you’d think unexciting Democrat Cottie Petrie-Norris should do well there against the mumbling Trumpy Steven Choi. Even though she doesn’t really live there.
- 74 – this is the coastal South County district going down to Oceanslime, evenly balanced between parties, and I’m gonna go ahead and root for San Clemente Democrat Chris Duncan against incumbent Republican toll-troll Laurie Davies. I like Chris! There’s another Democrat too, Laurie Girand of SJC.
So, as more developments develop, you just KNOW what the Orange Juice Blog is going to keep you = = = APPRISED! And don’t let this important June Election sneak up on you – ballots go out around May 9, and voting centers open up May 24!
I haven’t written about this yet, but the OCBOE districts will themselves be changing. We’re just not sure to what though, as the OCBOE Board Members themselves submitted one map, but the OCBOE Committee for Redistricting (I can’t recall its actual name), which according to state law is the one that gets to choose, chose a different map. So the self-interested Board Members submitted their own map to the ROV’s office and litigation may ensue. Power concedes nothing without a struggle.
Oh, that’s right. I was almost involved in that controversy, except Billy Joe Wright weirdly won’t talk to me.
UPDATE THURSDAY – I just heard Billy Joe’s map won out, Map #9, and without my help even though I wanted to help. Good news anyway!
No, not that FIRST map they tried which woulda ejected Ken Williams, but a good fair map anyway. One that’s good for Democrats which is important because there are no more reasonable Republicans interested in the OCBOE.
Maybe he got your and Donna’s Christmas Card too! He is aligned with Jordan after all.
I don’t know about any imaginary Christmas Card, but yeah, if he’s friends with Jordan that makes sense.
That committee is known as “the obscure Orange County Committee for School District Organization (OCCSDO)” according to Matt Cunningham, who seems to be getting paid by the OCBOE now as he’s writing more about their abuses and travails than anything Anaheim.
He’s even launched a new blog, untied to Anaheim, called the “OC Independent.” https://ocindependent.com/2022/02/oc-board-of-education-fights-two-front-battle-against-union-backed-foes/
LOL I always laugh when Matt calls himself “independent.” Did I mention that after he was ordered by his bosses not to call himself “Anaheim Blog,” he changed that to “Anaheim Independent,” and then he was ordered not to use that any more so he’s now the “Anaheim Observer.” And his old links don’t link to his new site this time. https://www.anaheimobserver.com/ You’re welcome Matt!
(Hey welcome Matt, that sounded funny.)
There always seems to be somebody dumb enough to buy his constipated, tedious wordsmithing.
I see that Flamingham no longer invites reader comments at all. I’ll bet that really helps him a lot!
OCBOE gave the game away when it contracted for that bogus White Paper on Covid policy by Will Swaim. Anything that Dave Min or Jackie Filbeck or anyone else did to keep them from drawing their self-serving lines — regardless of the “precedent” that existed back when OC was tomato red rather than eggplant purple — is not one that needs to be followed.
Not giving incumbents the right to choose their own electorate — as is the case in most redistricting right now (the Supervisorial districts being an obvious and unfortunate exception) — is good anti-corruption policy. No wonder the Teddy Bear Murderer cannot abide it.
Greg: Sorry it took 2 years for me to reply — a helpful Dem friend pointed it out. What errors of fact do you think you’ve identified in the Covid research I produced? I’m not likely to find this site again, so feel free to email me at
Will@CaliforniaPolicyCenter.org
Helpful Dem friend, please ask Mr. Swaim to identify you, because I have a hard time believing that he has any helpful friends who are actually Dems.
I’m looking for an online copy of the Swaim Report. It would be pretty funny if it were no longer available online, but if need be I’ll email for a copy that surely he must still have.
Meanwhile I did find this 2021 piece from Gabriel on Swaim. It’s perhaps a bit overly generous towards him, but it does quote Commie Girl at the end, who is not!
I also found this excellent story in the VOC about whom experts whose names were listed in the report were clamoring to distance themselves from the reports conclusions, which they saw as flawed.
OK, maybe it WAS a Dem who sent Swaim here — for a comeuppance! Still looking for the White Paper itself online!
Finally found it — I was thrown off because it was under a “Transcripts” tab, but it was an Exhibit to a forum.
We’ll have fun with this! Others should feel welcome to join in!
Also, given that you say “we”: I’m officially neutral for now about the DA’s race and the Bd of Equalization race, because I want to be open to talk to all candidates with the clear intention to treat them fairly. (I do expect to offer an informed endorsement when the time comes.) I still think highly of Dodson and my feelings about Spitzer are already public: I think he’s killing himself with the “anti-woke” crap.
In other of the races, I expect I’d agree with you, except that I may endorse one of the nobodies instead of Linda Sanchez (if one or two are poisonous and another one or two are not), so as to avoid a nasty person making the runoff. I may endorse Raths over Mahmood if the latter has smaller chance of winning. I want Young Kim out — and if Mahmood can’t do it there’s no point in losing the chance to have Raths do it. (Hey, what’s the use of being kicked out of the party if you can’t stop letting them control you?)
It’s ridiculous for SD 34 not to have a Latino Rep. (No, not you, Solorio!)
OK I changed the “we” on those two things.
I am beyond ANGRY at the 3 “Democrats” in Orange County representing us in Sacramento in the Assembly, who chose to remain neutral to effectively kill AB1400 CalCare vote last week. Cottie Petrie-Norris, Tom Daly, and Sharon Quirk-Silva have sided with the insurance companies and have killed any chance of Single Payer healthcare in California, tabled for the foreseeable future. Healthcare has been the biggest issue on my mind the last several years and it hurts that we will continue to suffer under the broken system that we somehow laughably call as “Healthcare.” I have submitted initial paperwork to primary against Republican Steven Choi (duh) but also against Cottie Petrie-Norris in AD73, who now must come into my Irvine to seek MY VOTE. Well no, sorry I will NOT be supporting Cottie and I will work hard the next 4 months on letting Cottie (and Steven) know that their refusal to support AB1400, their decision to stand with Insurance Companies and NOT the families of Orange County, they will pay a political price. I have no grand plans, I don’t know what else to do to convey to all the politicians that say all the right things (and some don’t even say the right things) and expect us all to continue to vote for them. NO. Not here. Not in June. Not in November.
Luis Huang 4 AD73
No one in government is willing to create a plan that they and their families must be part of. Same with those in our government unions. For the ACA exemptions were handed out AFTER the ACA was passed. Especially to the government unions who avoided paying their fair share and passed the cost onto others.
Are you willing to put yourself and your family in a government plan that everyone must participate in and no one gets to buy their way out of? No way can there ever be a good government health plan when those that force it on others allow exemptions for themselves and their cronies. – This is a very fair question to ask anyone who demands government run plans.
I myself was part CA run healthcare and it was a horror show. Cottie Petrie-Norris is the BIGGEST hypocrite in this arena (and many others) and she would NEVER, EVER let anyone in her family be part of a government run plan. Ask Cottie why when I was forced into the CA plan my pre-existing prescription, from a previous doctor who knows my long history and lifelong disability, the State of California refused to honor my prescription and Cottie’s office told me “too bad, go pound sand”
Certainly you and I have various different political positions; however, when we see a devil in charge, Common Ground should be used to remove it.
Also ask Cottie why she REFUSED to vote for ACA5 the anti-discrimination bill that all of her counterparts voted for. Seems the privileged white Ivy League girl thinks she and her wealthy white friends can pretend they care until they have to put their money where their mouth is.
Same with Banning Ranch. Force Newport Beach to build “affordable housing” on what is very limited land in Newport Beach, then Cottie ensures there will be none built next to her campaign funding friends next to Banning Ranch.
BTW – did you see Cottie’s healthcare friend at UCI got a $300K raise this year? Any of us have friends that got that big of a raise, ever? Or how many we know that even make $300K a year, never mind a raise. Not to mention, a part-time position compared to real world workers now making a $1 MILLION salary. COVID money meant to help people being, used to pay off her friends that pump money back her way. And none of the will ever accept being in a government run healthcare plan – https://transparentcalifornia.com/salaries/search/?q=Lefteris
*Steel – The Korean! Chen – The Chinese!
Which Country will make the most EV’s by 2035?
Mike Levin – Our Hero!
Katrina Foley – Just fine….!
Katie Porter – Lights out!
*The OC DA Race – The 2nd Guy Hardin ..looks OK.
Sunday – The Bengals over the Lambs by 2 points!
I’ve been told the eternal Marty Simonoff from Brea is running for 4th District Supervisor although I’ve seen nothing personally. If Sunny runs a spirited campaign she might force the unspeakably despicable Chaffee a runoff.
Oh Lord. I’m going to have to dig out that file.
A reliable source says that the infamous and fatuous Steve Vargas is running. So if Simonoff is running as well, it may be to hamstring Vargas.
I don’t need to dig out the Vargas file. I published it here.
And here’s something for the enjoyment of Vern and Zenger:
Again, the lines are not yet finalized — so we’ll see whether this ends even up being possible.
One reason for doing this, aside from finally making Paulette an official elected, might be to have more “ELECT CHAFFEE” signs up with the office to which they refer in very small type — especially if they use the same or similar colors, fonts, etc. The effect of that would be that people donating (and especially maxing out) to both Paulette and Doug would essentially be funding double signage for both campaigns. (This is less of an issue if the signs are distinct from each other and clearly state the officers sought.)
It also means that any “BAD CHAFFEE” signs — especially with the vomiting logo — put up will be able to do double duty.
I’ll let one of you lead off the discussion of “well what if it’s Paulette vs. Ken Williams?”
She forgot carpetbagging thief.
Can’t wait for the NO THIEVES NO CHAFFEE signs.
With what looks like a chain and lock around them.
A government warning label: “Stealing this Sign Could be Hazardous to Your Reputation.”
Communicative Disorders? WTF is that?
I recall Shaw being elected in 2020. Why would his seat be up for election?
No Thief NO Chaffee. I like that.
To the tune of “No Woman No Cry.”
I suppose redistricting might affect it, if they don’t have a “caretaker district” set up as they do for the state legislature, but Ballotpedia backs you up, saying that his term ends on June 1, 2024. He could conceivably get into the Supervisor race, though, as he did four years ago.
The OCGOP endorsed Todd Spitzer. As a Republican,this is very frustrating on a personal level. I hope they change their minds and endorse Mike Jacobs.
Teresa: a Spitzer vs. Hardin runoff still — for now — seems the most likely outcome. Of course you don’t have to respond to this, but I’m sure that lots of local politicos want to know what people like you think: if it came down to Spitzer vs. Hardin in the runoff — with no write-ins allowed! — do you think that you would vote for one or the other … or for neither?
Apparently the BoE reappointed him, but for a rump term so he has to run again this year.
I don’t know why Democrats are harassing Shaw for being on the OCBOE while serving as La Habra Councilman, while Becky Gomez whom we love is doing the exact same thing in Tustin.
Double standards just don’t look good.
That was the handiwork of Paulette Marshall Chafee, Prisoner #178945.
She came to the Anaheim Democrats last night to get our endorsement, which unfortunately she’ll probably get.
But I was thankful to Dave Duran, who brought up not only her sign stealing, but something else crazy I forgot – her manufactured fake-news interviews in fictional online publications!
Her response to the sign stealing? Pure crook-talk: “I was never arrested, never went to trial,” etc etc etc. NOTHING like “yeah I did that and I shouldn’t have.”
If Sunny Park had been married to a County Supervisor I presume that she would have fared better as well….
I don’t understand the discrepancy between the treatment of Shaw and Gomez either, but there’s probably a good explanation because the disservice is in the opposite direction of the motivation to disserve.
Go do some journalisming and find out!
Yeah, that’s what they do after they plead guilty, pay a fine, a few hours of CS and get their record expunged. Too bad nobody stood up and I SAW THE DAMN VIDEO.
Anyway, apparently Ms. Chaffee (Marshall having been abandoned for political reasons) has been doing the same shit at the County that friends say she did in Fullerton; namely, wandering around the county getting her mug in photo ops as a stand-in for her equally corrupt gopher of a husband. If you go to his “meet the staff” page you see her listed as “Ambassador’ whatever the hell that is.
Since she is now a candidate it is completely improper for her to be listed on a public page since she has no real job there or to have a County e-mail address.
https://d4.ocgov.com/staff
Wait, Anaheim Democrats are going to endorse a narcissistic dishonest thief?
I’m shocked.
At least they’re not endorsing narcissistic dishonest thieves imported from south county.
I admire all the enthusiasm of folks who volunteer with groups like these, but when you look at the egotists, liars, thieves, and scoundrels your hard work elects, do you really think it’s still worth it?
I don’t, but to each their own accessory to whatever.
It really depend who she is running against. I’d vote for Jordan Brandman over Dr. Ken Williams. At least Jordan could be recalled.
UPDATES Feb 13:
ASSESSOR: My Anaheim Democrats Club doesn’t yet have enough members in enough different districts to have a voice in State races (like Ortega vs. Correa) but in County races, we do! So the other night we listened to several County candidates make their cases. And I HAD listed Assessor as one of the races nobody cares about, where the incumbents have generally been doing a good enough job, but RICK FOSTER, the Democrat candidate, was very knowledgeable, energetic, and lovable – I’ll be voting for Rick!
In AD 73, disgusted with Cottie’s vote against single-payer, OJ friend (and perennial candidate) Luis Huang has launched a protest candidacy against Cottie and Chen. Chmielewski has been ragging on him on Facebook, claiming Luis will just split the vote helping Chen, “and what will you have achieved?” Well, if I were Luis I would answer, “THIS is not Congress, where a loss to a Republican would be fatal at this time – this is the CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY, where Democrats have MORE than a Supermajority, and we can afford to play a little hardball in an effort to get better Democrats.”
Yesterday the DPOC – actually all of California District 17 which is more than OC – got together for endorsements. Dr. Asif Mahmoud, the Democratic candidate for CA 40, didn’t even bother showing up, but got easily endorsed anyway.
In CA 46, Mike Ortega’s effort to deny the DPOC endorsement to Lou Correa, or at least force the question to go to the State Convention, fell tragically short, and there were a lot of shenanigans going on in that which we’ll be writing about later. (Why is the DPOC so hellbent on protecting a conservative incumbent who votes AGAINST stated DPOC and Democratic positions, AND has endorsed so many BAD Republicans, in a district where there’s no danger of a Republican ever winning? I just don’t understand.)
“THIS is not Congress, where a loss to a Republican would be fatal at this time – this is the CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY, where Democrats have MORE than a Supermajority, and we can afford to play a little hardball in an effort to get better Democrats.”
-Luis Huang, Candidate for AD-73 (Irvine, Costa Mesa, Tustin)
Campaign Launch VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIsDpxcLmxM
From my phone……why all the vitriol towards Correa? It’s not like his predecessor was any different?
Uh… vitriol? First that’s a little strong.
At regular intervals I am forced to remind Democrats with short memories of all the anti-Democratic things Lou has done in these 16 years or so. I don’t have the energy to do it again right now. But the bluest district in Orange County deserves someone who votes like a Democrat, and who doesn’t endorse (the WORST) Republicans – it deserves Mike Ortega.
And “his predecessor” – do you mean Loretta? She was a LOT better. Do I need to make a list of the good, brave, progressive things she did in her 20 years in Congress (while managing to pass herself off as a Blue Dog?) That’s another thing I’ve done many times.
There will certainly be time for an article assessing Correa — and Correa vs. Loretta would not be a bad comparison to include! — but that’s more of a March or April thing than a February thing.