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Welcome to Abel Maldonado’s Top-Two Universe. You and I just live in it now.
Well, at least now we can focus a little better. Let’s look at the choices-of-two we have left for us between now and November.
First, President. Well, there was no suspense here:
Then Senate, where octogenarian DiFi will face GOP fresh face Elizabeth Emken
(disappointing us mischief makers who wanted to rub Orly Taitz in the GOP’s face)
AD-69, Santa Ana and central Anaheim.
This is unbelievable. Sure enough, too few Democrats and too few Mexicans bothered to come out to vote, so we’ve ended up with the big-money half-Reep-half-Dem Tom Daly, running against a real Republican, Joe Moreno! (Congratulations, Joe!) Tom’s corporate backers spent a lot of time and money lying to the district’s Republicans and telling them that Joe wasn’t really running. Well, he sure did good for someone who’s not running, while us Julio and Michele backers were busting our asses. Did the district’s Republicans not bother reading the Daly mailers? Were they smart enough to not believe them? Or are they just such robots they’ll check off the “R” candidate without thinking? At least I’ll give the district’s Republicans credit for not hating on Latinos. Maybe more Latinos than we know are turning Republican? The results of this primary may hasten that phenomenon, I hate to say. And kudos to Chris Emami for calling this – I thought he was mad.
Here are your two AD-69 candidates. The whitest man in the OC,
and the shiniest-faced Republican Latino.
AD 74 – Newport, Costa Mesa, southern Huntington, and thereabouts.
Mr. Munger’s mega-bucks pumped into empty-suit RINO Leslie Daigle went for naught – it’s refreshing to see that happen in at least ONE case! So hardcore rightwing Republican Allan Mansoor, whom many people don’t like for many good reasons, will be challenged by very intelligent newly-minted Democrat Bob Rush. THIS will be an interesting race. Many Republicans are going for Rush, and the ones who chose the moderate Daigle in the primary should look at him too. Bob’s 34% added to Leslie’s 23% would do the trick. I’m looking forward to interviewing Bob and maybe helping on his campaign!
47th Congressional District –
Long Beach, Garden Grove, Los Al, Cypress, Westminster!
YOU lucky OC’ers are going to get the OC’s second Democratic Congressman, name of Alan Lowenthal. But now we know who his Republican opponent is – the very extreme and moneyed Gary DeLong. Here’s what they look like:
The 72nd AD – Reep on Reep BLOODBATH!
(That’s northern HB, Seal Beach, Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Los Al)
Sorry Joe Dovinh, you nearly got 2nd place. But the silver lining is, We’re gonna get to see nasty, rich Republicans Troy Edgar and Travis Allen spending hundreds of thousands of Republican dollars beating each other up for FIVE GRAND MONTHS!
So that’s Edgar and Allen, no Poe. Heh. Couple a weenies.
As Kissinger said when we were arming both Saddam’s Iraq and the Ayatollah’s Iran in their bloody war of the 80’s,
“If only there were some way they could BOTH lose.”
*First off: Congratulations to the City of Fullerton. 2/3rd of the Voters knew the right thing to do and did it. Proud of them all. Ron Thomas needs to shut up and take the victory….humbly….however. Tony needs to do exactly what he has been doing but now be “the guy – voice of reason” that quickly demands a National Search for a new
Police Chief and City Manager. A new broom needs to sweep completely clean!
2ndly, the hit pieces against Daigle down here in La La Land seemed to work pretty good. Costa Mesa gave Bob Rush their votes over Mansoor and Leslie the Bum’s Rush! Would have never believed that Bob had any chance. He must have done
some things pretty good along the way. Congrats to him! Will he win in the General?
Only if….he accepts the right phone call.
Right or Wrong Scott Walker is a pimp! He totally pimped the entire State of Wisconsin and it is a very sad tale. Can’t wait to see him give the Opening Address at the Republican National Convention. Who does he think he is: Mark Sanford….on the Applacian Trail? He can now be considered our new LeBron James, Tiger Woods most unpleasant fellow in the United States. Our apologies to Keith Obermann. OK, Russell Westbrook is awful too ….along with Harden…..ugh…hate those Okies!
Congratulations to Dana, Darrell and Ed……at least we got a few our picks into the game……
Big night for big money, eh? The investment theory of politics plays out once more.
Well… except for billionaire reformer Charles Munger’s investment in Leslie Daigle. That did not.
Leslie Daigle shall henceforth be known as: “The Anomaly.”
Mr. Ships mentions the hit pieces against her as being decisive; I will, for once, yield to his expertise.
Haha. Hey, no political science theory is 100% solid.
I’m working on a write-up. Not a good night, but a GREAT object lesson.
Here’s an object lesson. An anti-Latino white corporate politician dominated the most Latino Assembly District in all of Califas. The demographic changes in OC and in the US at large don’t automatically translate into the diminishing of the political and economical pillars of white privilege (Interested parties can read the economic take in the State of the Dream 2012 report )
I did my best to prevent that from happening, GSR. What did you do?
What I’ve always done. My peoples understand where I’m at and when they check me, I listen. When they give props, like a homie did today, I’m appreciative.
You’re a lawyer from Brea. Vern says you’re a good guy and that I’ll should ease up. I’m more than happy to do that.
Don’t pretend that one primary is the be all and end all of Santanaheim, though. It ain’t even over. Perez could end up 2nd, still. If he don’t, the struggle continues. Wu-Tang!
So long as people walk the walk as well as talk the talk, I’m fine with them.
And it could be that voters just didn’t like Julio and or Michele?
It may not have anything to do with race or wealth. It could be ballot positioning, it could be that voters in the 69th would rather have a no name Republican (Moreno) than a no name Democrat (Perez).
It could be anything, and I’ll agree Diamond (and Julio) did do a lot and Labor spent a boat load of money……………and still came up short, whats the object lesson there?
What are the odds that Mark Trumbo hit’s two HR’s in one game? Go figure.
“It could be anything … ballot position or a million dollars in late independent expenditures from Chevron, Philip Morris, etc. Really no way to judge, is there? Might as well just not look into it.”
Pah!
Yeah but is a dollar from Cheveron different than a buck from the CTA?
Yes it is. At a minimum, that’s for voters to judge — and to judge what the candidate will do for the cause.
And, of course, the comparison is not of an equal number of dollars. That matters also.
I do this reluctantly because I feel that a straightforward statement of my original intent robs the reader of personal associations and replaces them with my own.
But, I’ll take the bait.
You make my point for me, everyone needs to determine what the contributions mean. My aurguement is despite the popularity of the Occupy Movement recently, organizations like the CTA and AFSCM pose a more significant threat to California taxpayers than the large multi-national companies you cite.
I understand your position and don’t disagree that the influx of cash from private parties is posionous, but not more so than labor, PUBLIC LABOR UNIONS.
It is both hypocritical and dishonest for you to defend Julio’s contributors as being for the people, while bashing the others. Simple.
The equality of dollars absolutely matters, because what if Michele had recieved those bucks from the other side? she isn’t far behind.
I know Perez and his funders (a classy guy that Tefere Gebre) are dissapointed, maybe thier last gasp will work. But the bottom line is:
We all get one vote. You would be well served remembering that during your upcoming competition.
Don’t be a sore loser.
You’re right — aside from the differences in the pure scope of spending, one can evaluate the purposes for which the money is given and decide which is more or less objectionable.
Unions giving to Julio want to protect the middle class against a surgent and rapacious wealthy sector.
Chevron and Philip Morris want to get tax breaks and fewer regulations so that they can make more money while displacing the social costs of their actions onto the rest of society.
I have no trouble distinguishing them morally. Your mileage may vary — and it apparently does.
Chevron and Philip Morris, by the way, are among those companies associated with ALEC and the Koch Brothers who are trying to make sure that we do not “all get one vote.” Thank you for setting up that ironic observation.
“Maybe more Latinos than we know are turning Republican?”
I think many people consistently underestimate the fact that a significant number of Latinos are staunchly conservative on social issues. They’re not averse to voting for Republicans who are relatively sane.
The DPOC needs to put its money and support into Bob Rush and Sharon Quirk-Silva. Those are our possible pickups. Tom Daly doesn’t need it. I just hope he’s not utterly terrible for the next 12 years.
DPOC’s money? My friend, we need to talk.
DPOC will support SQS. I presume that it will also support Rush, but people may want to sniff his agenda first. One fear with Rush (which I asked him about to his face) is whether he was just running to spite his political enemy Daigle and didn’t really care about unseating Mansoor. I don’t think that that’s true of him — but people will need to be convinced.
If Daigle didn’t hate Rush before last night, she surely does now. I expect her to be a good party member and endorse Mansoor. Whether her voters will do the same, I don’t know. At least now we know how large Rush’s base of support is. I suspect that the Republicans will spend whatever it takes to win this one, though.
OK. California Democratic Party then. Two conceivable shots at the 2/3 Holy Grail.
2/3 what you far left dems want to take the state to more taxes and deped into the stink hole . soon you will be hearing the famous two letters B K
*SQS is dust…….58% by Norby is too much to overcome. Rush needs the help and you should get on board….he has a very good chance to knock off Mansoor unless of course he gets the wrong phone call. Daly has every chance to be outed by Jose “Joe” Moreno…….sounds like a very Hispanic District and Daly is maybe a little too blanco…maybe he needs a tan. Or is that a tanning? If Moreno gets some help you will have your Latino in there.
Everyone else looks good to go. Congrats to our man Don Wagner…..68% approval is very cool. Diane Harkey got 65% and she is totally supported by everyone. Mimi seems to be sneaking in the back door…and the negatives haven’t marked her too badly just yet. Come on now Mimi….answer the Winship’s e-mails….it really won’t hurt…we promise!
SQS didn’t campaign — not much reason to in the primary. She has the whole part of the district south of I-5 to cultivate — and Fullerton voters are likely to be in a more anti-Bushala (and thus more anti-Norby) mood once the Kiger Agenda gets unleashed on them in the City Council. Sharon’s fine.
In your essay on AD-69, what role did the almost $1 million in IE’s play? You think that those people will let Moreno sneak through?
If Mimi won’t talk to you, you should e-mail Steve Young. I’ll bet that he’d talk to you. You’d probably like him.
Mimi’s got issues with both political corruption and pollution on you folks’ beautiful seashore, which we will certainly examine on these pages. Now she won’t talk to the Winnies? I’ll hook you guys up with Steve. I foresee a couple of Corona Del Mar Steve Young Republicans on our blog.
Lots of late absentee votes still out in the 72nd, the counted absentees were favoring Dovinh and Pham, I would estimate as many at 12,000 left to count.
Board of Education Race in Area 1 may be another to contiune watching. Ken Nguyen had a early lead from the Absentees also.
This was a very low turnout at the pollls, the late absentee totals will be close to equal to the votes already counted.
Are you sure that those weren’t included in the totals, Jim? If not, great; it would be fun to see victory wrenched out of Travis Allen’s grasp and I’d especially like to see Nguyen overtake Hammond.
No if the numbers posted at the Lib OC from the voter Regstrar are correct there should be around 16,000 ballots mostly absentees to be counted yet in the 72nd.
Ken Nguyen is less likely to be able to overcome the difference but he had a big lead in the counted absentees also
*Dr. D., Moreno has an Hispanic chance. If you notice….out the six candidates running including Daly….five were Hispanic. Since Moreno already got close to 23% …it does not take calculator to figger that Daly’s 43% is not going to grow more than five percent. That puts him down 4% in the final….in our opinion. Unless of course he has a huge Mexican Fiesta with five Mariachi bands and free Tamales!
With about a 35% turnout predicted for the General…as well….SQS doesn’t have many options to increase her grade point average. 58% by Norby means…he can only grow….if he plays his cards right. Don’t forget Bruce is there to run interference in Old Town Fullertonia! Or should we say: Mr. Mayor?
Mimi, by the way….doesn’t talk to anyone…well, unless you are elected and can help
in lots of ways. No biggie…..but we will be diligent and eventually get her attention.
There were five candidates in AD-69 including Daly, not six. As Julio’s campaign still thinks he has a shot, I’m postponing writing any post-mortem. Suffice it to say that if Moreno stays in the #2 spot, Michele will endorse Daly and I’d expect Julio not to endorse — and Republicans won’t fund Moreno because they have everything they want in Daly that they could hope for from Moreno, PLUS warding off a Democratic challenge.
Your analysis of AD-65 is ludicrous, which I can only attribute to willful ignorance. More on that later today.
Dr. D.,
We are disappointed…you thought Tajikistan was going to challenge Dianne….nope
it was Liz…… Liz is a lovely sacrificial lamb. She will be something soon. We have
a good feeling about Liz.
Look at my predictions for the runoff: Feinstein and Emken. It is not hard for you to look this up, ‘Ships.
*So Dr. D., what percentage will Liz get again?
I’ll say 36.
I picked 8% and she got 12.5%. Nevertheless, got the challenger right when many were picking Orly.
Not only are there a lot of uncounted ballots, but there are generally very large numbers of late VVBM votes (Vietnamese Vote by Mail) that are hand-delivered to the polling places and are among the last to be counted. They are generally very Republican.
Would Vietnamese ballots for Joe Dovinh be late because they’re Viet, or on time because they’re Democratic?
If the LOC is correct, we’ll find out more at 5pm each day. Can’t wait… I’d love to have called both AD 72 and AD 69 wrong.
*We have to agree with Mayor Quimby on this one…..we worked the Polls in San Clemente Tuesday and out of 104 ballots cast 14 were provisional…..people were pretty confused by the fact the Republicans did not offer Decline to State or NP’s to vote on their ballots. The Dems, the AI did…..but many folks wanted to vote for Ron Paul and find out because they were Non Partisan Registered ….they could not. Why did the Republicans not allow Indys to vote on the Republican ticket….because they were afraid they would vote for Dems with the Modified Open Primary system.
These people should read the damn Orange Juice. Me and Munson have been telling people for a month that they needed to be registered R to vote RP. Next time tell them where to find us.
Well, after the first day of counting, Travis Allen and Joe Moreno both extended their leads over the third and fourth place candidates in their respective races.
In AD-69, it’s going to be the provisionals more so than the late absentees that will make a difference, if any, and that’s going to be fought ballot by ballot.
*Mayor Quimby….right again….yes we got about 25 VBM delivered to the Polling location. (Vote By Mail Ballots) out of the 104 total and the included 14 Provisional.
in that total.