Never mind 2012, what impact will U.S. Latinos have in 2016?


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I think that the GOP is going to take back Congress in November.  And fast forwarding to 2012, it is becoming entirely plausible that an ineffective President Barack Obama will step aside and allow U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to try to hang on to the White House. 

I have no idea how 2012 will pan out.  It may well be that the GOP will rebound during 2010-12 and seize back the White House.  That could happen.  The bigger question is, what affect will the GOP’s bashing of Latinos do to the Republican Party not in 2012, but rather in 2016?  With, or without, a new amnesty, the future is looking quite grim for the GOP.

Think about it.  Latino children who are 12 right now will be 18 in 2016.  Many if not most of these kids are American citizens.  How do you think they will be voting?

Picture courtesy of the New York Times

Never mind what I think, here is what the U.S. Army thinks the future will look like:

There are significant and increasing demographic ties throughout the Western Hemisphere. Today, approximately 15 percent of U.S. citizens claim Hispanic heritage. By the middle of the century, this could easily rise so that nearly one quarter of the population of the United States will trace its heritage to Latin America and the Caribbean.

More than 500 million people – one half of the hemisphere’s population – live in Central and South America and the Caribbean. United Nations statistics show that in 2000, Latin America and the Caribbean consisted of 8.6 percent of the world’s population. While this percentage is expected to remain static, the actual population in real numbers may grow to 768 million by 2050.

While the U.S. is thought of as primarily an English-speaking nation, it is also the 5th largest Spanish-speaking country in the world.

And what does the U.S. Census think?  Well, take a look at the graphic atop this post.  That graphic shows U.S. population growth.  Check out how fast the Latino portion of our population is going to grow compared to everyone else!

The Center for American Progress looked at this issue and developed a report which was published last week, and which I will excerpt as follows:

The United States will be majority-minority nation by 2042. By 2050, the country will be 54 percent minority as Latinos double from 15 percent to 30 percent of the population, Asian Americans increase from 5 percent to 9 percent, and African Americans move from 14 to 15 percent.

Unaffiliated or secular voters—not white evangelical Protestants—are the fastest-growing “religious” group in the United States. The percentage of adults reporting no religious affiliation almost tripled from 1944 to 2004, rising from 5 percent to 14 percent. Projections indicate that by 2024, 20 percent to 25 percent of U.S. adults will be unaffiliated.

This trend—combined with growth among non-Christian faiths and race-ethnic trends—will ensure that by the 2016 election (or 2020 at the outside) the United States will have ceased to be a white Christian nation.

Here is the bottom line – the GOP may win in 2010, and in 2012, but after that, it is over for them, period.  Unless of course they change their ways and stop bashing minorities, gays, etc.  Yes, fat chance of that.

I know this will be hard for our Republican readers to swallow.  I have been warning your party for years.  Enjoy your victories in November and perhaps even in 2012.  They will be your last.


About Art Pedroza