I think that the GOP is going to take back Congress in November. And fast forwarding to 2012, it is becoming entirely plausible that an ineffective President Barack Obama will step aside and allow U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to try to hang on to the White House.
I have no idea how 2012 will pan out. It may well be that the GOP will rebound during 2010-12 and seize back the White House. That could happen. The bigger question is, what affect will the GOP’s bashing of Latinos do to the Republican Party not in 2012, but rather in 2016? With, or without, a new amnesty, the future is looking quite grim for the GOP.
Think about it. Latino children who are 12 right now will be 18 in 2016. Many if not most of these kids are American citizens. How do you think they will be voting?
Picture courtesy of the New York Times
Never mind what I think, here is what the U.S. Army thinks the future will look like:
There are significant and increasing demographic ties throughout the Western Hemisphere. Today, approximately 15 percent of U.S. citizens claim Hispanic heritage. By the middle of the century, this could easily rise so that nearly one quarter of the population of the United States will trace its heritage to Latin America and the Caribbean.
More than 500 million people – one half of the hemisphere’s population – live in Central and South America and the Caribbean. United Nations statistics show that in 2000, Latin America and the Caribbean consisted of 8.6 percent of the world’s population. While this percentage is expected to remain static, the actual population in real numbers may grow to 768 million by 2050.
While the U.S. is thought of as primarily an English-speaking nation, it is also the 5th largest Spanish-speaking country in the world.
And what does the U.S. Census think? Well, take a look at the graphic atop this post. That graphic shows U.S. population growth. Check out how fast the Latino portion of our population is going to grow compared to everyone else!
The Center for American Progress looked at this issue and developed a report which was published last week, and which I will excerpt as follows:
The United States will be majority-minority nation by 2042. By 2050, the country will be 54 percent minority as Latinos double from 15 percent to 30 percent of the population, Asian Americans increase from 5 percent to 9 percent, and African Americans move from 14 to 15 percent.
Unaffiliated or secular voters—not white evangelical Protestants—are the fastest-growing “religious” group in the United States. The percentage of adults reporting no religious affiliation almost tripled from 1944 to 2004, rising from 5 percent to 14 percent. Projections indicate that by 2024, 20 percent to 25 percent of U.S. adults will be unaffiliated.
This trend—combined with growth among non-Christian faiths and race-ethnic trends—will ensure that by the 2016 election (or 2020 at the outside) the United States will have ceased to be a white Christian nation.
Here is the bottom line – the GOP may win in 2010, and in 2012, but after that, it is over for them, period. Unless of course they change their ways and stop bashing minorities, gays, etc. Yes, fat chance of that.
I know this will be hard for our Republican readers to swallow. I have been warning your party for years. Enjoy your victories in November and perhaps even in 2012. They will be your last.
Your vision of the GOP having a very brief resurgence before a final utter fail in 2012 or 2016 reminds me of a speech Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah) gave yesterday (he’s a little bitter at his party as he just lost the primary to a teabagger)
From the Huffpo:
“As I look out at the political landscape now, I find plenty of slogans on the Republican side, but not very many ideas,” Bennett told members of the Ripon Society. “Indeed, if you raise specific ideas and solutions, as I’ve tried to do on health care with [Oregon Democratic Sen.] Ron Wyden, you are attacked with the same vigor as we’ve seen in American politics all the way back to slavery and polygamy. You are attacked as being a wimp, insufficiently pure, and unreliable.”
Bennett, who was kicked off his party’s primary ballot last month at the Utah GOP convention, predicted that Republicans will retake control of the House of Representatives in November, but suggested that the shift in power may be short-lived given the lack of solutions coming from their side of the aisle.
“The concern I have is that ideology and a demand for absolute party purity endangers our ability to govern once we get into office,” Bennett said.
Vern,
Sage words from Bennett. A fitting epitaph for a dying party…
Although…
think of the harm they could cause during the final 2, 4, or 6 years of their death throes. I don’t want to.
Folks. Last Sept the PPIC conducted a statewide survey of “Latino Likely Voters in CA.”
Reading from that report “Latinos make up about 32% of the state’s adult population but only 17% of the registered voters most likely to turn out in elections.”
The report continues stating that “Many Latino adults are not U.S. citizens and are thus ineligible to vote.”
In looking at projected population growth PPIC reports that “By about 2016, Latinos are expected to outnumber non-Hispanic whites in California and by about 2042, Latinos are projected to become the racial/ethnic majority in the state.”
What may surprise our readers is that PPIC found that more Latinos are conservative than liberal.
Therefore, their support should not be taken for granted by the “progressive” Democratic Party.
They’re conservative on social issues. They’re generally more religious, against abortion, less accepting of gay rights etc. But they’re progressive as far as economics go, and REALLY what do you think could EVER entice many of them to vote for the Latino-bashing Republicans?
Vern. Latino-bashing Republicans?
One thing you can say about “W” is that he at least made an attempt to reach out to the Latino community. As stated previously, Ron Winship and I covered his presentation at the Ontario Convention Center in Jan. 2002 that was sponsored by several Latino business groups who spoke highly of his inclusion of Hispanics.
We also covered (and interviewed) U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin in July of 2002 as the White House promoted the No Child Left Behind Act at Huntington Park H.S. with a focus on having Hispanic students excel in the public school system so that like Rosario’s example, could make a better life for themselves.
She was born in Mexico City and has experienced the American dream.
You want a true Latino role model? She’s the ticket.
Rosario, an illiterate immigrant, is the first Mexican born citizen to head up the U.S. Treasury Department. In fact she is the only foreign born Treasurer of the USA.
Larry,
I know Rosario very well. When I worked in Latino outreach for your party I worked with her and many other Latinos who went on to work for Bush and Schwarzenegger.
She however got busted for charging travel expenses to her agency, that she incurred when traveling to go get paid to speak at a function. That was, as one might expect, no bueno. She had to resign. I am not sure what she is doing now.
Art. Sharing the stage with Rosario was Grammy recording artist winner Jon Sekada who shared with us his life as an immigrant who grew up in the streets of Miami. He succeeded and attributed education as being a big part of his success. He told us that he looked up to his teachers, went to college, and was aware of the challenges yet kept his traditions and language alive.
Rosario, speaking to the parents and students in both Spanish and English, said its a “sad tragedy–we don’t have enough Latino’s graduating from college.”
She later added that “reality is that many parents don’t have a clue as to what it will take to get to college. Many parents didn’t finish grammar school or high school themselves. She later added “we want your child to achieve more than you achieved yourself..there are resources–where there is a will there is a way.”
Brother Vern. My friend. This national tour was during a Republican administration.
We were told that $11.5 billion was being spent on Title I. Therfore I cannot say if this endeavor became another unfunded mandate or not.
Note: Rosario Marin lost to Bill Jones in the 2004 primary race to challenge Barbara Boxer. We all know the outcome of that election as once again Republicans put another candidate into the Senate race arena.
Do you know how silly you sound, going on and on about one hispanic Republican lady, one exception to the rule? Stop.
Vern.
There were several messages in those comments starting with her being an illiterate immigrant from Mexico City yet climbing the ladder of success.
The same applies to the value of getting a good education and learning the English language if you intend to get a well paying job. Oh, I didn’t add those comments from that event .
Vern. Forget for the moment the impact of future election participation. With almost 50% drop out from some of our high schools there is a much bigger issue that Hispanic’s must recognize and address.
Brother Vern. The impact of Hispanics in 2016 is quite simple. Don’t wait. Register to vote as Republicans and cast your votes for Carly as Barbara needs to return to Fisherman’s Wharf.
I grant you, that’s one of the few issues W was good on.
On the other hand, so was John McCain and Lindsey Graham back then.
This decade’s GOP is anti-immigrant, anti-Latino, anti-hispanic, anti-illegal, whatever. Believe me, it’s all the same to them, they know it’s a racial thing.
Things always change with time, and no matter how much things change, it always seems to remain the same.
In the future, the possible Latino majority will be the new Republican majority of the Democratic party.
cook,
What do you mean exactly by “In the future, the possible Latino majority will be the new Republican majority of the Democratic party?”
That makes no sense.
I think he might be saying that Latinos will be the majority of the Democratic party – which sounds true enough – and that they will make the party more conservative on social issues – which may also be true.
Except really, I think it’s more older Latinos that are hung up about gays and abortion, the future is more with the younger Latinos who are hip and open-minded.
Vern,
Thanks. I get it now. Yes, you are right. The report I cited indicates that a majority of Americans in 2016 will be secular. Game over for the Reeps…
I am a african american female, and since Glen Beck called Obama a racist”, hated white people and white culture, I have started doing alot of research
on white culture through knowlegable sites on the history of the USA. “That
“culture that was that was indoctrinated 250 years ago (regardless of the civil
rights movement, and inspite of Obama being elected), is the exact same recipe
being used “right now in 2010. The ingredients include white rich men, who
on purpose, just like with this holding back and stereo typing the unemployed.
Make white americans think it’s “the brown, black, asian people”, who are behind
your misery, vote republican, we will fight for white working class people, protect
you from “them. Yet many of you are “white them” standing in line at food banks,
and unemploymment checks,that “they sent your jobs to india. “white america”,
you are being “played”. Instead of Obama, you really need to take your “pitch
forks directly to the “White Republican/Tea Baggers,”Wall Street”, for they
had far “more to do with you loosing, your jobs, making you stand in line
for unemployment checks and so many of you are now standing on street corners with signs” You’re being “laughed at”, by us “it’s the brown/black people!
we will not only enjoy our victory, we will make sure you hate it. all trends can be reversed, perhaps immigration should have some diversity, you know, people who are not Latino. How about more whites or Vietnamese. What will happen to la raza then? hopefully the four years after our victory will bring about immigration changes that will not only stop la raza but dilute them, boot them, and moot them.
dmw why do you think far left vern and the other libs want them . they know they cant vote ..the majorty of ILLEGAL immigrants that come here are poor low skill THEY WANT THE FREE HANDOUTS . they want to give them amensty so they can vote for dems . .the dems are a party of handouts , freebies , since they come here with nothing they will vote for them IF WE LET THEM . this will keep them in power . they are always yelling they want comprehensive immigration reform =aka amensty . our laws are fine THEY ARE NOT ENFORCED that is the problem .
great one,
Read the post. Click the links. It is game over for the GOP with or without a new amnesty. Sayonara haters!
no amensty you dont get to hold america hostage . if illegals cant vote . no se puede
great one,
Read the report. It is already too late. Unless the rest of you start breeding like rabbits, it is game over.
yes they are famous for that illegals coming over here having a zillion kids at tax payers expense . = freebies i was talking about
Soylent green is people
cook,
Gross. I don’t see cannabalism in our future. But who knows? We seem to be headed for a third Depression…
Mexicans are not Latinos! They are descendants of Aztecs or Mayan Indians. Mexicans should not be referred to as Latinos. Here in Orange County, when they say “Hispanic” or “Latino”, it is readily accepted as Mexican. People need to be more educated about the heritage of various peoples within the North South and Central American regions. Mexicans are not Latinos!