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The pajarito, or "little bird" - source of all rumors, or "chismes."
Hark! how the sultry pre-September days are enlivened by exaltation of birdsong. All the larger species are chirping the jolly tune about the Victim Party (the California GOP) and its disgruntlement with our new, strenuously, impartially drawn districts. These long-suffering souls had always felt cheated by the Bipartisan Incumbent Protection lines of 2001; now the new, laboriously nonpartisan lines seem even more unfair to the pobrecitos; next they’d like to send the whole question to the state Supreme Court – oh – I see why! All the judges there are Republican-appointed. But it STILL won’t turn out the way they’d like, because the fact is the state GOP is moribund.
Party bouncer / court jester Jon Fleischman, who two years ago wrote that approving this redistricting was “one of the most important votes that any conservative in this state can cast,” has now, in contrition and/or amnesia, penned a fervent cri-de-couer against it, which Cal Buzz has roundly and most enjoyably demolished. Long song short: Sorry, bub, your Party is just dying. You are Whigs.
*
But we connoisseurs, we OC bloggers and cognoscenti, keep our ears peeled for the songs of the smaller birds – the pajaritos – to divine the local, human impact of these epic geographic struggles. And some of what we hear nests below:
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Tyler Diep, Keith Carlson, Joe Dovinh
The open 72nd Assembly District, consisting of the Little Saigon towns, the northern half of Huntington Beach, and Los Alamitos, is turning into a fratricidal bloodbath, oh my! On the Republican side, highly ambitious Westminster councilman and loyal-unto-death Trannie Tyler Diep feels this seat is his due. A prodigious fundraiser and top advisor the Equalizer Michelle Steel, he has her endorsement, and includes Van Tran and fellow equalizer Ken Lopez-Maddox-Lopez as campaign co-chairs.
But then there’s Newport Beach lawyer and consummate GOP insider Keith Carlson, who had been achieving stellar fundraising himself before knowing what the new district lines would be, just thinking simply that he’d take over “Jim Silva’s old seat,” not knowing it would be cut in half.
What’d Jesus say that one time, “You can’t serve two masters?” It hadn’t generally been a problem for Keith serving both Scott Baugh and Mike Schroeder, until now. But pajaritos sing that Schroeder can’t stand Allan Mansoor (who knew?) and was intending to deploy his Carlson against Allan in the 74th; while Baugh preferred to spare Mansoor and install his Carlson in the open 72nd. Something else I didn’t know – Mansoor’s stock has gone up in the OC GOP, as many who considered him an uncharismatic, one-note Mexican basher now admire him for his more recent stand against Redevelopment Agencies. So Keith has reportedly decided to please Scott rather than Mike, and move to northern HB to discomfit Tyler; last we heard, Baugh lieutenant, Party bouncer and court jester Jon Fleischman was bending Michelle Steel’s ear trying to get her to rescind her endorsement of Diep.
This Carlson move is just BOUND to add to the Viet community’s anger and resentment especially with the OC GOP – they already feel cheated by all three districts they’ve been handed, and this move against Diep should just be salt on the wounds, wouldn’t you think? Remember Andrew Do’s bitter parting shots at the lack of respect Viets get from “OC GOP Kingmakers.” Maybe Viets should vote Democrat?
Well… that’s another story. We Democrats had been thinking that we just maybe COULD win this seat, with the right Vietnamese-American Democrat, and of course by that we meant Phu Nguyen. But family man and businessman Phu has decided he’s not eager to spend years in Sacramento away from his young children any time soon, or lose the kind of money neglecting his business that he did in 2010. This leaves Democrats with Dina Nguyen’s husband Joe Dovinh, who ran unsuccessfully against Phu in the primary last year, and spent the remaining months savaging him on Viet radio. I immortalized Mr. Dovinh in this epic interview last year. That’s all I’m going to say about Dovinh for now.
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Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle
So then, what bold Republican WILL run in the new coastal 74th Assembly District against Allan Mansoor, Allan Mansoor with his new anti-redevelopment cachet, Allan Mansoor who has come to realize there is more to politics than combating the La Cucaracha food trucks?
Looks like that will be Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle. Leslie Daigle? From the little I’ve heard of her I had the impression she was just another flighty nut. In what way would she differ from Allan? Well, I asked a Republican® and was told that the answer is “redevelopment” – Leslie is evidently an “empty suit” (women can be that?) put up for this run by pro-RDA forces. And she’s not given much of a chance against incumbent Allan by the smart money.
(My personal effort to create a mini-Recruit Rush Hill movement fizzled, with the urbane councilman responding, “This [Newport] is where I want to serve and believe I can add value at our local level. I did my tour in Sacramento from 71 to 74 with the Reagan administration. Now if you have a question about our Revitalization program, or keeping the new city hall/park/library/parking structure on schedule and on budget here in Newport, that’s more my cup of tea!”)
Pity the good people of Costa Mesa – they’ve got that City Council. It looks like they’re stuck with Allan Mansoor in the Assembly. And from there it gets even worse – State Senator Mimi Walters, Congressman Dana Rohrabacher. Maybe I won’t move there after all.
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Lynn Daucher, Bob Huff
And it looks like we’ve got another fratri-sister-cidal open primary situation brewing in the North OC Senate District 29. Senator Bob Huff, to whom the most-frequently-applied adjective, from all sides, is “arrogant,” has been ruling this majority-red fiefdom for four years. He’s pissed off the rightwing/teahadist base of the Party both by being among the most strident voices in favor of wasteful RDA’s, and by going through the motions, with four other GOP senators, of negotiating with Governor Brown over budgetary matters. (Little do they know that was just a big waste of time that we Dems rather he hadn’t bothered with.) And to us on the left he is an arrogant rightwinger specializing in defunding public education (by diverting funds to “charter schools”) and in his spare time meticulously packing the local City Councils with his aides and yes-men.
Now comes Republican former Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher, hoping to knock Huff off his throne. Remember her, the skinny lady who nearly beat Lou Correa for state Senate back in 2006? Given her record of moderation and Lou’s record since then of putting business profits above all else, I have often asked myself why we worked so hard – there really wasn’t THAT much difference between them. But I think if I were up that far north in the county – nosebleed north – I WOULD perceive a difference between Daucher and Huff, and choose the former (of course, after the sacrificial-lamb Democrat is knocked out in the primary, that is.)
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Tom Daly, Julio Pérez, Michele Martinez
Like I’ve said, in the safe Democratic 69th Assembly District (Santa Ana / central Anaheim) we Democrats should be trying to get the most PROGRESSIVE Democrat we can – much more progressive than quasi-Dems Solorio and Correa – meaning one who looks out for the interests of regular people over corporations, and liberty over our incarceration state.
So we’ve got, so far, Anaheim Labor dude Julio Pérez versus SA Councilchick Michele Martinez, neither of whom I’ve been able to interview yet. And it’s proven frustratingly impossible to find anyone who’s met Michele who will vouch for her intelligence or literacy.
And then there’s Pedroza, who for some reason becomes practically apoplectic when Julio’s name comes up. All I can get from him though is that Julio is similar to Dick Cheney insofar as his previous job as political director for the Orange County Labor Federation entailed finding good political candidates to support and then he went and chose himself. (Darth Cheney chose himself to be W’s VP.) Also, according to Art and Sean, Julio is the dread “TOAST” because there are more Santa Ana residents in the district than Anaheim ones and they love them some Michele. Others respond without missing a beat, that Anaheimers vote in greater numbers than SanTanans and not all the latter love them some Michele. (As I write, Julio has just officially announced his candidacy, naming his top priorities as “Jobs and education” – we have had a pre-announcement from Michele but still no announcement.)
But one thing I think most of us can agree on is that we hope the rumors that career politician Tom Daly is running do not bear fruit, or else that he loses. He would be the de facto Republican in the race, certainly put up to it by business interests that fear Labor politician Pérez. Previously Anaheim mayor, currently the County Clerk-Recorder, Tom has a longstanding history of favoring business interests over labor, and sidelining local populist Latino activists. “De facto Republican?” Some of his biggest supporters in recent years have been Republicans – from GOP consultant John Lewis to Red County voices like Cynthia Ward. And on the right, our Fullerton fringers have Tom dead to rights on sundry flagrant wastefulness. So you see? – these middle-of-the-roaders who are neither good progressives nor good conservatives please nobody but the comfortable and rich.
So let’s go ahead and have one of the two Latinos in this Latino district.
*** smaller tidbits ***
In Fullerton-centered Assembly District 65, we’re still wondering who will run against the guy Gus calls “quirky Lincoln impersonator” Chris Norby? Beloved Councillady Sharon Quirk-Silva is wisely biding her time another term or two. The California Democratic Party is still counting this as one of their best shots due to the nearly-tied registration numbers, but who will be the magic-bullet candidate? Will my one-man effort to recruit La Palma Mayor Ralph Rodriguez be any more successful than my failed Rush Hill movement?
I have no knowledge of what plucky Democrat might run in the much-anticipated Gary Miller / Ed Royce cage-match up in the 39th Congressional District. I did note though, while sifting through DPOC financial outlays, a shocking five-figure expenditure marked simply, “POPCORN.”
The “godfather of the Orange County Tea Party” whom we previously referred to as the “very ambitious Supervisor Shawn Nelson” has apparently turned a lot less ambitious, and is running for neither the Congressional nor Senate seat that were rumored. That’s the thing about pajaritos – sometimes they’re wrong, and sometimes things just change!
What else are you hearing, aviary?
Greetings from the “Nosebleed North,” which I prefer to think of as “The Attic Full of Toys.”
Don’t worry: if Sharon Q-S doesn’t run in AD-65 — and I have no idea and no inside info, but I hadn’t heard that she had finally decided, especially given that right now she does have some serious Fullerton policy issues on her plate — yours won’t be a “one-person effort.”
Re Huff Daddy’s seat in SD-29: the rule that Democrats should not be able to endorse Republicans under a top-two system is past its shelf life. Daucher would not be a good vote most of the time and would probably use her position as a possible swing vote to negotiate concessions rightward, but she seems the type who would believe in evolution, gravity, math, and many aspects of the state and federal constitutions. Would a “Dislike Daucher, but Hate Huff” slogan backfire?
Have Miller and Royce both made an Unbreakable Vow to seek the CD-39 seat? This is a place where it might be interesting to see a Green candidate run — someone for whom lefties can vote, but who won’t get so many votes that it would spare both Miller and Royce the pleasure of campaigning all the way until November.
[re. Tom Daly – ed.] Taking the Latino Assembly seat would not be a good (nor a lasting) career move for him. With a good voter reg effort, SD-34 will be winnable in 2014, probably against Silva. (Not sure exactly where Daly lives, though.)
Love the coverage of AD-72. Sorry Phu won’t run — but it will be a nice wake-up call to Vietnamese voters when Carlson steamrolls Diep. Luckily, more and more good Vietnamese Dems are on the way; eventually this problem will resolve itself.
One thing to bear in mind where you talk about these two-Republican-heavyweights races: If you look at “sacrificial lamb” races throughout much of the county, Dems seem to have a floor of about 28-35% (working here from memory) most everywhere. A single Democratic candidate getting 35% — actually, 33.34% — *guarantees a spot* in the November election. Even 30% for a single Dem lamb makes the race unless the two-titans race turns out closer than 40-30 (which one could imagine in the Royce-Miller race.) So, for one thing, expect the GOP to do as they did in Wisconsin and run at least one additional candidate with a D in the name to suck up stray Dem votes — ideally one with a last name of Roosevelt, Kennedy, or Clinton.
But what if only one Dem (and no Green or P&F) files? Success could be our undoing. We have serious choices to make about whether, from June to November, we want an Ed Royce to be able to save his money while running against a Christina Avalos-type Dem or whether we want him to be spending it — and sucking up GOP activists and money that could otherwise go into competitive races like AD-65 or CD-47.
As you can tell, I’m not convinced of the orthodox “run anywhere and everywhere” view in our new “top-two + tussling-titans” world.
Looking forward to your coverage!
Vern,
What’s with the pot shots against Michele? There are plenty of folks in Santa Ana that like and support Michele, you need to get out of that bubble of malcontents that are feeding you “intel”. She been elected to the council twice now and the last time she was unopposed.
If there’s such a disliking of her in the community why didn’t anyone run against her?
The folks feeding you that bull are the same ones who say that Claudia is so un-popular and yet she usually receives more votes than any other council candidate running regardless of ward.
Michele genuinely cares about Santa Ana, especially our youth. Those that attack her behind her back and feed you this nonsense are just angry that she doesn’t carry water for them.
Well, I don’t listen to Dan or Chris about anything if that’s what you’re thinking. And I’m still waiting to meet with Michele but she’s been busy.
Last time I did a post about her, you should have been here to stick up for her, the comments section got really nasty (I actually deleted a few.)
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2011/08/i-was-wrong-its-michele-for-the-69th-assembly-district/
Let’s see if we have this right…
When Art and Sean get fed “intel” by their pajaritos, it’s legitimately worth putting on their blog.
But when Vern gets such “intel”, it’s nothing more than “bull” from “malcontents”. As if there couldn’t possibly be anyone in Santa Ana less that satisfied with Michele Martinez. Please.
Interesting how that works.
Michele cared enough about the youth of Santa Ana to sell drugs to them. Aside from multiple affairs with married men, chronic unemployment and no record of accomplishment, Michele doesn’t even attend city council meetings because she has a class Monday nights, so why is she such a great council member again?
After last nights performance at he council meeting, the political career of Claudia Alvarez is over. Was Alex Vega drunk or high when he addressed the council?
There are high paying jobs that require no experience. With unemployment so high among college grads and service personal alike, there should be 10 to 15 people running for each spot.
Ye gads. I clicked Vern’s link up there for the comments section about Michelle Martinez. I know that some people around the county’s blogs love politics as blood sport, but can I suggest some ground rules, so we don’t see that for 14+ more months?
First, my interest declared: I will support Julio Perez — but not because of anything about Michelle Martinez. (Note: I’m not “part of his team” and I get no payoff for that support; I’ve just formed a firm opinion of his character.) I will support Julio because, of the many people I dealt with in the county politics over the past four years, no one has demonstrated more intelligence, integrity, and industriousness than him. That’s what I want in a leader. Before he’s out of the Assembly, we could be looking at Speaker J. Perez II, and I like the idea of confusing future California political historians.
That said, and I’m betting that Julio would agree with me — cut out the personal attacks on Michelle, people. Cut out the sexist put-downs, the attacks on her handling her finances, the insults about her intelligence. The first is unfair, the second largely irrelevant, and the third is just assertion without evidence. She’ll have plenty of chances to have her mettle tested in debates with Julio; let those occasions come and let their respective performances speak for themselves.
The only reasonably legitimate attacks made in that comments section regard her being a “Pulido pawn.” I don’t know if those attacks are true; I doubt that I will be convinced that they’re true by free-wheeling attacks on her in blog comment sections. If I were advising her, it would be for her to show that they aren’t true — and, if she can’t, well, there’s your answer so far as who to vote for, depending on where you stand.
The test for this race will be pretty easy: line up the votes taken by Jose Solorio while he’s been in the Assembly and ask them both which ones they agree with. (Oh — also pay attention to what was said in debate that was not reflected in votes, as with Jose’s snotty comments on Dave Jones’s AB 52 in service of health insurers.) Get honest and detailed responses from them both on those votes and everyone — whether progressive or for rent to the highest donor — will know how to vote.
That’s fair criticism. The other routine Santa Ana political bullshit has no place in this race.
“no one has demonstrated more intelligence, integrity, and industriousness than him. (Julio Perez)”…… Hmmmm
If he is so intelligent, how come that he can’t figure out on his own IQ that he is gravely obese?
If he can’t control pushing in his face burritos all day long and abuse food intake he will abuse financial intake too.
His taxation proposals and spending will be as fat as he is.
That guy is seriously sick.
@”From the Rehab”
That “cut out the personal attacks” request goes to both sides. Attacks like this make you look desperate, stupid and cowardly. If you stick to the actual issues, rather than giving us your highly novel theories about burritos, at least you can avoid looking desperate.
Obviously you are an idiot and that is my desperate personal stack on you.
Anyone, including Julio Perez, who can’t take care of his body can’t take care of my body you liberal moron mongoloid.
This, we are all equal, crapola does not jive with me.
Really, Vern…is this sort of name-calling tolerated here?
Why are you concerned with name calling if you do not have name?…. idiot.
you should ask: Vern…is this sort of anon-calling tolerated here?
Don’t worry, I was not bothered by his “desperate personal stack.”
When I next see Michelle, I’ll ask her if that’s how she wants to see her campaign operate. Of course, her desire for a positive campaign may not matter to you if you’re just talking smack to make yourself feel good. Too bad.
I almost feel like this Perez guy is some kind of place holder until the preferred union canidate jumps in. Maybe a ploy to scare off the straw grabbers or even the long shot but viables, like Martinez.
Sounds far-fetched, but this dude came out of nowhere, almost like the shill in the Harry/Ackerwoman fight of 2010. Just seems wierd.
As for Doucher, is she still alive? This old hag needs to hang it up.
No, he’s not a place holder and he’s not coming out of nowhere.
It’s spelled “Daucher,” if that matters to you. A subtle difference, perhaps.
Really, Most people, have NEVER heard of him. Maybe in UNION CIRCLES he is known. But if you went to Mainplace or another locally populated place and asked 100 people:
“Do you know who John perez is? Did you know he is running for Assembly?”
COMPARED TO
“Have you ever heard of Councilwoman Michelle Martinez? Would you vote for her for Assembly?
The Nuance makes all the difference Greg, just like when I typed “Doucher”.
Hey, if Perez is running to better the community and he stands up and says so, explains why, he’ll earn support. Deservedly. But, the statement about creating jobs and education rang hollow to me.
And, I still think something is fishy about it, or maybe the HUGELY populated Assembly District can’t get better known canidates to run? Who Knows.
Well, over at the LOC, “junior” (we all know who he is) said the SAME thing, and I said, “Jesus, Junior, the election is 15 months away.”
I know, I should have said 14.
If Julio’s campaign continues 14 months with the energy it’s started with, you and Junior will know him soon enough.
It’s “Julio” Perez. “John” Perez is the Speaker of the California Assembly.
You clearly don’t know much about him. There’s no shame in that. But you should have the humility to recognize that this may be a deficiency in your knowledge rather than in his quality.
“Better known” is not the standard to use when evaluating candidates. “Would do a great job” and “can get elected” are. So, investigate and learn.
Point Taken. I know who John Perez is. No idea about this guy.
But you and Vern are right. Soon with his employers help and a few more of the well attended $1,000 fundraisers, the mailbox will be over flowing.
Just like a mercedes dealer at a pre school!
Daucher was the consumate Redevelopment tool. And a useless RINO. Her run against Correa actually created an informal group called Republicans for Correa. Her reappearance would be extremely distasteful, however Huff is an even bigger Redevelopment puppet so there’s a no-win race.
Daly can run but he can’t hide from his disastrous decisions as County Clerk – especially the purchase of that derelict building on Civic Center – a total waste of over $2,000,000 that has drawn the attention of the Performance Auditor.
Let’s see where she is on Redevelopment now. A lot has changed since 2006, now all Dems and some Reeps are against it, given the new economic constraints. If she wants to distinguish herself from Huff, that’d be a good place to start.
Also, I think of more than just RDA’s when I praise her (faintly) as a “moderate.” I understand that she is pro-choice, and not a basher of gays or Latinos. These are three pluses to most of us Democrats, which would make her preferable to most Republicans out there – including Mr. Huff.
“our new, strenuously, impartially drawn districts” – you really know how to turn a phrase, Vern.
The way to truly impartial districts was, as the Register suggested several times, simply start at the northern or southern boundaries of our once great state (before the Democrats destroyed it) and move the line up or down until the required population number was met, draw the line for the district, and continue up or down until finished. Of course, that wouldn’t be acceptable to the “communities of interest” that usurped the process and turned it into the same political joke it has been for decades.
That’s right, the “communities of interest,” partly dictated by the federal Voting Rights Act. And also, as much as possible, boundaries of cities and counties. Party registration was not taken into account, and neither was residence of current incumbents.
I gather you’re not happy with the result. But having – what – a dozen competitive districts instead of two or three is not exactly “the same political joke it has been for decades.”
I think the “voting rights act” is being misinterpreted.
People (government people and their henchmen) are using the new term “communities of interest” instead of “segregation” and “equal but separate” to mislead the sheep and get around the civil rights laws.
After the battle for civil rights for minorities in the 60’s, we have come full circle.
The minorities are now battling for self imposed segregation with the equal but separate “communities of interest”.
Next thing I will see is minorities demanding the back of the bus for themselves exclusively.
“After the battle for civil rights for minorities in the 60’s, we have come full circle.”…….. Hmmm
Guy Fawkes will like this reference to which I refer “circle of life” and “spiral of life” because you always end up where you started but on higher level.
So comrade Vern is Stalinist on higher level.
Why do you think that “communities of interest” is a new term? “New to you” is not the same as “new.”
Civil rights laws still apply: no packing those from a single “community of interest” into districts to dilute their power and no carving a community of interest into separate districts just to dilute their power. There has to be a balance. It’s not “demanding a segregated space”; you’re thinking of the likes of Marcus Garvey. It’s demanding actual representation of one’s interests through one of the only means available to get it.
Why North/South?? Why not East/West??
No matter what there will be unhappy people. Vote to make California a happier place.
Out of curiosity, have you *read* the language of the initiatives that were passed by the public stating how redistricting should be done? I ask because that language is, well, the law and all. If the Register didn’t like it, they could have spoken up at the time that these laws were being considered.
Honestly, making fun of “communities of interest” is like looking at the Fifth Amendment and saying “‘takings’? Who uses a word like ‘takings’? What does that even mean? Let’s ignore it!”
*Newport Beach politicians never have been that lucky. Congressman Chris Cox was
the lone exception. Leslie Daigle is a nice lady and does know a few political nuances.
Her problem was telling a grounds keeper at CDM High School ….she would make sure they had immigration problems if they didn’t let use the track ….one morning.
No, Alan is an encumbent and if Leslie did challenge….it wouldn’t be much of chase.
No, Leslie has other good things in store for her political future.
First time, long time…
From what I gather, the more attacks on someone in the comments, the more viable they are as a candidate. Hence the efforts to take them down.
Based on that, it looks like a tie between Julio and Michele and Tom as an also ran in the most Latino district in CA.
The only way I see Tom getting a spot in the runoff is if he Jose and Miguel divide the Latino vote. That’s where I see the use of Michele as a “Pulido pawn”. He wants to make sure Tom is in the runoff.
This is going to be a fun race to watch.
There’s a general election either way. You can no longer with with 50%+ in a primary (or: first round). Julio will get at least 33.34%. Having Tom and Michelle both run doesn’t really buy anyone anything. Then it’s either Tom and Julio or Michelle and Julio. Julio still wins, although for different reasons.
Mansoor is an incumbent of Costa Mesa. Period.
Allan Mansoor is HOT !!!
Why is it I at all times feel like you do?
“Hey Hot”…..allan mansoor is off the market…sorry buddy, he has a girlfriend !
Hey you three weirdos who always comment about Allan’s hotness and seem to be male … should I tell everyone you’re the same person? And that Allan’s new “girlfriend” is as mysterious and invisible as (I can’t believe I’m saying it) Jordan Brandman’s?
And as irrelevant I should add…