Poll: Derek Tran on track to Beat Michelle Steel!

Hot off the presses:


Derek Tran In Dead Heat With Michelle Steel

Tran Positioned To Flip Red To Blue Congressional District

Garden Grove, CA —  As the 2024 congressional race heats up in California’s 45th District, new polling shows Democratic nominee, Army veteran, workers’ rights advocate, and small business owner Derek Tran in a dead heat with incumbent Republican Michelle Steel this November – before voters hear a single message about Tran. Tulchin Research’s new poll highlights an extremely tight race, with Tran already statistically tied with Steel. Strong polling data, Tran’s unique appeal among key voter demographics, including both Latino and Vietnamese voters, and Steel’s serious liabilities all point to one conclusion: Derek Tran is well-positioned to flip this seat in November.

A Tulchin Research poll of 600 likely November voters conducted May 23-June 2 shows Tran in a statistical dead heat on the initial ballot ask, with Tran garnering 41% of the vote compared to Steel’s 42%, with 17% undecided. Tran’s personal story as the son of Vietnamese refugees strongly resonates in this district, which boasts the largest population of Vietnamese in the country, helping him significantly outperform past Democratic candidates with a group that Democrats have significantly struggled to win.

The poll further shows Tran’s ability to win over voters once they learn more about him and his opponent. After receiving additional information about both candidates, Tran’s support jumps to 52%, while Steel’s falls to 39%, with just 9% of voters still undecided.

A deeper look at the 2024 primary results reveals more problems for Michelle Steel. Her primary vote share in 2024 was 2 percentage points lower than in 2022, even though the electorate was 3 points more Republican. This net 5-point drop-off suggests a weakening support base for Steel. Additionally, the 2024 general electorate is projected to be nearly 10 points less Republican than the primary electorate.

“The data shows that voters are fed up with Michelle Steel’s record of corruption and voting to restrict women’s reproductive rights,” said Tran spokesman Orrin Evans. “Army veteran Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, is ready to flip this seat and get to work for Southern California families.”


California’s 45th is a Congressional District representing portions of Orange and Los Angeles Counties in Southern California. A majority-minority district, the District has the second largest AAPI population (36.97%) of any Congressional District, and the largest Vietnamese community in the country.  President Biden won the current district lines by +6 points and it has a +6 point Democratic registration advantage. It includes all or part of the Cities of Garden Grove, Westminster, Cerritos, Buena Park, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Artesia, Los Alamitos, La Palma, Brea, Lakewood, and Fullerton, as well as the unincorporated community of Rossmoor.

The DCCC has endorsed Derek Tran as part of its “Red To Blue” program.

Use of Derek Tran’s military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Dept. of Defense or U.S. Army.


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