CA-46: Correa Brags on 17-15 Vote; but … TO BE CORRECTED, BUT NEW CALCULATIONS BELOW!

Greg Diamond

– February 1, 2016Posted in: "The OC", 2016 elections, 46th district, Democratic Party, democrats, DPOC, Fresh Juice, joe dunn, lou correa

UPDATE 2/2: Sorry, folks — I was in a rush and I blew it. Mea culpa. I’ve been working on an emergency matter in a case involving keeping a serial rapist away from a potential pool of victims (where I’ve just finished the “emergency” part within the past hour), and it didn’t leave me time to check the figures. I’m on to another matter (which I had had to put off now), but will get to my analysis of the race — including Chumley’s accusation that Dunn was probably (or was it just “might be”? dunno, but he sure made a lot of noise about it!) lying about his October receipts — as soon as I can, which probably means publication on Thursday.

Meanwhile you can feast your eyes on the accurate end-of-year reports for Bao, Brandman, Correa, Dunn, and Lynn Schott. I’m looking forward to learning what the big contribution to Correa from “other committees” — which is the only thing that kept him a nose ahead of Dunn for the quarter — involved. And I’ve done a few more calculation to get at a statistic that we might call “Estimated Actual Cash in Campaign.”

As usual, I will announce: I don’t like having to be the one to do this, because sometimes I do get really busy and can’t do the sort of job that I’d like. If you understand this sort of data and are able to pitch in — conscientiously, of course — you’re welcome to do so!

See you later! — Greg

~~In the CA-46 race, Joe Dunn raised $131,274 in the Q4 (fourth quarter, or October-December) period while Lou Correa raised just $76,001.~~

~~In the (obviously somewhat misleading) overall figures, Correa reported $116,539 in 2015. and Dunn reported $113,160.~~

~~Bao Nguyen’s figures are not yet available online (although they were filed on time.) More on this as it develops. Corrections may, of course, be possible.~~

UPDATE: Bao hauled in $54,030 in the fourth quarter of last year, which is pretty good in its own terms, but not on a pace with his opponents.

Meanwhile, Correa is sending out an email bragging about the same ridiculous poll that he chartered last year and about his “dominating” Dunn by getting 17 votes to 15 votes in the Democratic Party nominating meeting last Saturday, while 8 (including, and mostly associated with, Loretta Sanchez) voted for no endorsement. “DOMINATING”! His emails are, if nothing else, at least funny! Bao didn’t get any votes at the nominating meeting — he was out sick, although he was ably represented by Jeff LeTourneau. Had he shown up, he could not have voted for himself. My sense is that he had a lot of goodwill in the room, but not so much for this particular race. Various Dunn people want to see him run for Supervisor against Andrew Do. Correa wants to him to stay in the race, of course, so that he can split the liberal vote with Dunn and then, presumably, suck eggs.

If Irvine Republican Lynn Schott runs — and frankly why not? — then it eats significantly into Correa’s strategy. If Lynn’s in and Bao’s out then Lou is going to have a tough road making it into the top two.

Summary of Year-End Reports (including Q4 revenue and expenses) for the 5 candidates who were or are getting into the race:

Summary Table for Q4 Revenue and Cash on Hand:

Bao: $23,624 (Oct-Dec), $43,113 (EOY COH “End of Year Cash on Hand”)

Brandman: $5,209 (Oct-Dec), $47,552 (EOY COH)

Correa: $116,539 (Oct-Dec — $45,022 is from “Other Committees”), $251,832 (EOY COH)

Dunn: $113,160 (Oct-Dec — $10,150 is from “Other Committees”), $175,548 (EOY COH)

Schott: $5,253 (Oct-Dec — $5,ooo from candidate loan), $4,223 (EOY COH)

Looks like Correa has much more Cash on Hand that Dunn, right? Watch how the books seem to have been cooked!

Summary Table for Canmpaign Expenditures:

Bao: $30,868

Correa: $15,793 (including $1,500 contribution refund, so more like $14,293)

Dunn: $67,389 (including $4,150 “other disbursements, so $63,239 in operating expenses)

Commentary on the Above Summary

Bao’s $43,113 was all raised for this campaign and he’s spent $30,868 on this campaign. So a “raised for plus already spent on this campaign” would be $73,981.

Correa’s $251,832 includes $45,002 from “Other Committees” — he didn’t raise it to run for Congress! So in terms of fundraising prowess, Correa’s COH is down to $206,830. And he’s only spent $14,293, so COH (raised for this election) + Expenditures to Date (on this election) = $221,123.

Dunn’s $175,548 includes $10,150 from “Other Committees” — not raised to run for Congress. So that brings funds raised for this race down to $165,398. But, he has also already spent $63,239 (plus maybe another $4,150) to win his race for Congress, which presumably wasn’t wasted. Add that in and the total “raised for + spend on this race” is $238,787.

That means that Dunn has raised and spent $238,787 and had $10,150 transfers = $248,937.
Meanwhile, Correa has raised and spent $221,123 and had $45,002 transferred = $266,125.

That $17,188 gap in what I’ll call “Estimated Real Cash in Campaign” or “ERCIC” — both kinetic (active) and potential (reserve) — is probably a good estimate of how much money in total each has really had going for campaign purposes. Correa’s cash on hand only looks a lot higher because he hasn’t yet paid his bills!

Meanwhile, putting aside transfers, Dunn was raising $37,720/month ($113,160/3) in Q4, while Correa was raising $23,839/month ($71,517/3) in Q4 — a difference of $13,881/month. If that trend continues, Dunn would be expected to pull ahead of Correa in terms of total fuel in the campaign tank, or ERCIC — although it might not be apparent until Correa pays his campaign bills, assuming that he does — right about February 8. And that’s next Monday.