Here’s what I learned from my visit to the Registrar of Voters office today:
(1) The vote is now all substantially counted. It’s all over but the clean up. There are a few more damaged ballots that need to be recopied and scanned, but just a few — probably under 30 in Fullerton, which is less than Jan Flory’s 32-vote lead over Travis Kiger. There is also a pile of ballots (which they might have gotten to after I left at 11 a.m.) of voters who don’t seem to live here, for which they’re making one more valiant effort to try to locate their residence in the county before disallowing them. I got the sense that virtually all are expected to be disallowed; they already did a decent job of trying to locate them the first time.
(2) The canvass of 1% of the vote is already well underway. They choose 1% of the vote (I believe at random) to do a full recount on their own, just to ensure that their procedures worked. Betting is: yes, as usual, they did. Final results should be posted by Wednesday at 5 p.m.; don’t expect many changes. (Since the day last week when Flory pulled ahead by 4 votes, an unforgettable margin of 12,670 to Kiger’s 12,666, she has added only 158 votes to his 130.)
(3) Apparently, there haven’t been challenges to any of the provisional ballots in the Fullerton Council race.
And here’s some stuff I already knew:
(4) There’s little point in a recount — though that doesn’t mean that one won’t happen. While we technically don’t know who won yet, we know who’d have to pay for the recount: supporters of Kiger (most likely meaning specifically Tony Bushala.) He’d get his money back if Kiger ended up reversing the result; otherwise it would go to fund County of Orange government services.
(5) If there were no challenges to provisionals, there apparently would have been no need to segregate the challenged provisional ballots. They’ve been opened, counted, and mixed with the others. There’s no longer an opportunity to suck them out of the pile and exclude those votes. That means that a recount would be solely over open and anonymous ballots that had already been cast — offering very little to fight about. A court is less likely to respond to a motion where the movant can cherry pick which ballots to exclude already knowing how those ballots were cast. Kiger’s only hope would be that the ROV somehow flat out miscounted.
(6) They did not likely miscount. It’s not yet time to declare victory, but it seems very likely that Jan Flory defeated Travis Kiger by about 0.1% of the vote. Finding out otherwise would be expensive.
If so, Fullerton will have a Republican majority, but one split between two factions: Bushalan Greg Sebourn and Bruce Whitaker lined up against Ackermanite Jennifer Fitzgerald. The Democratic minority will be moderates Doug Chaffee and Jan Flory. This will lead to some interesting votes. How might the sides break down? I see four coalitions to watch:
(1) On some issues, the Republicans may vote as a bloc against the Democrats. On the issue of Coyote Hills, though, Sebourn will have to be aware that he’s up for re-election in two years and Measure W failed miserably despite shovels full of Chevron money. (Flory will, I expect, be open to hear further plans from Chevron, but not the sort of property-rights ideologue that they would want to count on — not after Measure W barely broke 39%.)
(2) On issues involving the Glorious Libertarian Anti-Government Revolution, Tony Bushala’s faction will have substantial influence but not control. Expect to see a coalition of Chafee, Fitzgerald, and Flory.
(a) Chaffee and Flory are not going to refuse to listen to honest and reasonable criticisms on the water tax, on pensions, etc. — unlike the previous Ackermanite council majority — but neither they nor Fitzgerald are going to agree to tear down the temple of local government just for the sake of having done it. You will probably see (gasp!) some really good policy discussion at the meetings, and if Whitaker and Sebourn care about results it will not be simply ideological.
(b) The police and fire unions will survive — but they’ll be weaker. Chaffee and Flory may love the FPD, but they aren’t as likely as the former trio to let it run around entirely undisciplined. And, at a time when they may well need to sell their people on taking a bit less than they could have gotten from the old majority — with the alternative being the prospect that Bushalan Republicans will take control in two years or four — being a little weaker now may put them into a stronger position down the line. I would not be at all surprised to see a Citizen’s Police Commission along the lines of that supported by Jane Rands — one with teeth but probably not fangs. If Dan Hughes — we may as well start calling him “Captain” — is ready to be a reformer, he’ll embrace it and help shape it into a tool he can use to curb the excesses of some on his force. Once again: a serious misstep could lead to a Bushalan majority before too long — Fullerton has to get its house in order and keep it that way.
(3) Fitzgerald will get to be a deciding vote — but not likely one to push her own anti-libertarian conservative initiatives. Maybe she’ll pick up Sebourn on some public morals issues and one of the Democrats on some of the others, but the Old Days are gone.
(4) The rift to watch will be one between Whitaker and Sebourn. Whitaker just got re-elected and clearly has a strong base. Sebourn — not so much. Chaffee will probably run again, I’d think — Sebourn will have to decide how acceptable he’s willing to make himself to Democrats in 2014. Will he be scary to them — or tolerable? If he’s aiming for the latter, look for some votes where Whitaker and Fitzgerald are in the minority.
I’ll just end with one exchange from comments in FFFF and one quote from an earlier post of mine here:
#46 by Michael on November 14, 2012
No.
It aint over until the ugly evil lady sings.
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#47 by Greg Diamond on November 14, 2012
I didn’t say it was over. But it is a trend. My guess is that provisionals will likely break for Flory, as they usually do for Democrats, but in Fullertonland that’s just a guess.
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#48 by Ryan Cantor on November 14, 2012
I’m calling Kiger +6. I’m guessing residents who move within the city limits and casting a provisional are going to be younger and not voting on party lines. Any other commentators with a crystal ball out there?
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And then there’s the advice I gave here just before the election:
[M]y position remains, from watching Tony and his blog, is that it is likely that there is a close race for the third seat on the Council between Kiger and Flory. You can vote for both, neither, one, or the other.
I hope that you’ll save one slot of your three to vote for Flory, to stop Kiger. But Tony is doing everything he can (and Vern can confirm, if he wants, as to whether he’s bending Vern’s ear in private) to keep you from voting for Flory because she — not Barry, not Jane, and not Kitty — is the most real threat to Kiger’s re-election. As usual, you vote in that race or you let others decide it for you. Tony wants you to take a pass on it.
Thank you to those who voted. And don’t worry — no one’s ever going to forget about what Tony can do if the upcoming Council doesn’t do it’s job. In that way, the balance of power in Fullerton is in quite good shape.
UPDATE, 11-20-11: On the next-to-last day of reporting, Flory picks up one vote and Kiger picks up three. The margin is now 30.
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An interesting analysis, Greg. And far be it from me to disagree since I thought Flory would easily be the #1 or #2 candidate. But here’s an interesting dimension; as of January, Mr, Whitaker will be unemployed; he’s been Norby’s major domo since Chris’ days as an OC Supervisor. Word is that he’s casting about for a job with the County or some other public agency; an ironic position for someone who’s so vehemently opposes public employee rights. Can he stay loyal to Tony B and still take an evil government job (as something other than Norby’s right hand)? Will Tony B still let him in the charmed circle? If the choice comes down to having enough money to pay the rent versus maintaining the libertarian mantra, what will Bruce choose?
I do agree on the union issuese. This will still be a conservative council in a conservative town, and the recall happened for a reason. It would behoove the safety unions to at least try to cooperate with the Council, which should be easier since the one who spent most of his time as their Grand Inquisitor will probably be gone. Maybe now some real and constructive reform can happen.
The scuttlebutt I’m hearing is that Shawn Nelson is pushing for Chris Norby to be chosen as the replacement for Tom Daly as County Clerk-Recorder — a job that so far as I can tell he is strikingly unqualified unless one’s goal is to show the inefficacy of government. Luckily for Norby, Bushala, Nelson, etc., that is exactly what their goal seems to be, so I guess it makes sense to them. If he goes there, Whitaker will follow. Tony won’t mind. Better from his perspective that the money go to Whitaker than to someone who might actually provide services in return.
Norby would be appropriate as a lobbyist for the Californian Rifle and Pistol Association. At that, he’d do a very good job. It’s not like I’m rooting for them to improve their lobbying (though they got smoked a couple of times this year), but Norby has an “A+” from them and he’s a former Assemblyman, so it seems like a natural. (Yes, CRPA, I would like to be paid for this suggestion.)
Isn’t one of the small government group’s pet peeves the habit of politicians to look out for one another in their dotage by providing jobs for them after their elected careers? Or is this, like “transparency” and anti-nepotism, just another quaint notion to be cast aside when it no longer works for you?
The CRPA is too cheap to hire Chris Norby. After all, Chris has former wives, current family and and he is a USC Super Fan. They would have to get the cash to pay him from the NRA.
It will take a little imagination to think that Supervisor’s Moorlach, lame duck Campbell and Janet would go along with putting Chris into the Clerk-Recorder spot……but hey…stranger things have happened.
In my opinion it is — let me see, what’s the best way to put this? — just another quaint notion to be cast aside when it no longer works for them.
How would they justify it? “Well, it’s not like the job is going to go unfilled anyway….”
Great article Greg. I got blocked from posting on the FFFF blog a few months ago. That’s why it is so quiet on there now. They blocked and moderated anyone with a view outside of Kiger and Bushalas. Wasn’t very smart because it killed the debate which sparked interest which could have swayed those 30 votes to Kiger. They claim to have this open blog but as you can see lately by more and more comments, people can’t post anymore and almost all posts from the bad side are blocked or moderated. It totally killed the FFFF blog and debate. Seems like everyone from the opposing view is called O’Malley and then blocked. Crazy.
Oh well. I’ll swing over to this blog more often now since that one is dead. Congrats to Jan. Kiger would have been the worst thing for Fullerton’s future and I’m glad that Fullerton realized that before it was too late. Kiger can take his crazy thoughts elsewhere, hopefully to get an education in common sense and an appetizer in politics. His statements at the few council meetings he was at completely killed his political career. If he would have waited until after this election he would have had this term wrapped up and a career in politics in the bag with funding from Bushala for life. I was glad he was so dumb but have never seen a politician be so dumb so early with so much on the line. Keep up the posts on FFFF. I cant believed they haven’t blocked you yet.
Hey, you’re talkin about my webmaster!! (Which he does for free…)
How many freakin blogs is Travis the webmaster of, for Pete’s sake?!?
That’s his only job right? His poor family. He locked up medical insurance and city pay, and lost it before it took affect.
He has been extremely professional and honorable as a webmaster, I’ll grant him that.
Maybe now he’ll fix our time stamp.
It may be that they don’t block me because, if they do, I raise hell about it over here.
I give Travis credit for not hiding his light under a bushel, actually. Politically dumb, but honorable. As for Tony — even without the majority he gets credit for having spurred reform: it is going to be much better Council now than it was a year ago, and he does deserve the lion’s share of credit for that even if he ended up electing Chaffee, Flory, and Fitzgerald to go with Sebourn. And the threat that he’ll come back and take over the Council will help keep people honest.
The biggest loser? Don Bankhead. I completely forgot to poke fun at him, too!
Yes I agree. Bushala’s money brought about major change. But if anyone thinks he was doing that for Fullerton and not for himself and as revenge for all the decisions against him over the years, they are smoking the same funny stuff Tony smokes everyday. Tony wants to run the city and he wants to run it his way. No ifs ands or buts about it. I think Fullerton is better now also. It’s just much better now that Kiger is out. Kiger didn’t deserve that seat and Tony bought him into that seat. He just needed to shut his mouth for a few months and do things behind the scenes and plan for November. He let people realize too quickly how dumb he is, how much common sense he has (none), and how uneducated he is politically. He might preach new era reform but he is still a politician. He committed political suicide in his first month. Hard to do.
People can have wildly different political philosophies but still respect each other’s sincerity. Where Travis went astray was his relentless search for conspiracy and corruption around every corner. DUI checkpoints as overtime machines for cops? Sincere members of the public being derided as shills for employees during council public comments? Really? If you need to rely on snide comments, insults, and a constant state of crisis to establish your legitimacy, then its time to reassess some of your core beliefs.
The real shame here is that an opportunity to enact some true reforms got sidetracked by fireworks and DUI checkpoints. Hopefully the new council will concern itself with creating a police review board that will encourage professional and ethical law enforcement instead of looking for a pound of flesh at every opportunity.
Yep. Fireworks and Checkpoints. Death instantly. Police review boards are another topic that has so many variables. Anything with power takes full time money. Most cities don’t have that money in this era. First choice is keep the PD or go Sheriffs. If keep the PD, then find a good outside Chief and move forward. Too caught up in other BS and flesh as you said.
Just be grateful they did away with the Red Light Cameras and are hold the speed bumps down to a reasonable level. Additionally, perhaps YOU should lobby the FPD to put pressure on the Council….to repair the streets…like Brookhurst and others and their never ending potholes….which tear up Cop Cars and Civilian transportation with impunity.
I am gonna be so pissed if you hit that +30 number.
I’m serious, Dr. D. I’m finding that crystal ball of yours.
I don’t use a crystal ball; I examine the entrails of sacrifices.
I leave it to you to think about whom you haven’t seen around recently….
(Note to the humorless: I am just kidding.)
Seriously, being a social scientist teaching stats and research methods for a long time usually makes you pretty good at Wild Ass Guesses, which is all that was. I’m more proud of figuring out that Tony’s longstanding focus on Flory likely meant that he had to suspect (or know) that it was a close fight for third place — and that by process of elimination that meant that Jenny Fitz was likely one of the top 2, because I think that he would have gone after Alvarez.
Note to self: DO NOT play poker with Mr. Diamond!
Word.
See today’s update: with one days left and only four votes added today, the margin is now EXACTLY 30.
No, I’m not that good. Picking 30 a week ago was just a lucky guess.
Jesus Christ Diamond. Don’t gloat. You sound like a douchebag and really a stupid broken clock is right twice a day. Do need to spike the football jackass. It ain’t lady like.
I’m not gloating. The final margin was 29. In other words: I was wrong.
I’m guessing TonyB relied on the science of random sample polling to determine which candidate (Flory) was the biggest threat to Kiger getting elected to a full term. Not cheap, but quite reliable.
Me too, although this is angrily denied by his FFFF acolytes (who may or may not mostly be him, Kiger, and Chris Thompson.)
Citizens for Responsible Government…..need a recall of all votes. Pay the money and get ‘er done! Travis needs to know for sure! He probably thinks that phone call he got …..was to be helpful. He should have accepted their offer.
if it is down to thirty, then the question is who will represent who?
baric, shcroeder, greer, houston….how do the stars line up
30 with 100 left to count county-wide. I think its statistically impossible for Travis to win. May explain his abscence at the council meeting.
Former City Council candidate Sean Paden says, in a comment on FFFF, that Kiger has the flu. We should have a discussion here sometime on whether it makes sense to have flu shots.
I don’t know…may be too controversial.
Nahhhhh!!!
So cool that Kiger is out. He is showing his true colors but not even showing up tonight. He’s a little baby. He was bought into the seat and got kicked out just as fast. He learned a hard expensive lesson. His family was relying on that city paid medical insurance and those dollars each month to run Fullerton into the ground. Fullerton is a much better place with him long gone. I can just see him now crying on his wife’s shoulder. We should go copy and paste all the posts on the FFFF blog from the final days of the dinosaurs and all Kiger’s posts about not showing up the final meeting, walking out when they knew they were gone, etc. Karma huh Kiger? It caught up to you very quickly. Your FFFF blog is almost dead and your reputation is now dead as well. So long little buddy. xoxoxo
Even though I didn’t agree, I thought it was somewhat admirable when Travis held his ground with the DUI checkpoints and Dan Houghs negotiations. But not to show up at the last meeting, that was a classless act. He did not show because he knew he would get demolished by the public. I get it, it is a hard thing to face. BUT Tony and Travis basically took pot shots at the recalled three every meeting. Hell they have been taking shots at Fullerton as long as FFFF has been around. What I am trying to say is at least be a man Travis and take your lumps. You and Tony can always dish it but apparently you can’t take it. And you guys dished a whole lot of trash.
Finally, everyone always comments that Sellers ran away like a nancy(which is true). You know, he made up some bs medical excuse. Didn’t Travis do the same thing last night? Sincerely, Travis I am sorry you went out like you did.