Predictions and Preferences for TODAY’s primary, from the OJ Rogues’ Gallery!


Orly Taitz, Deborah Pauly, and Diane Harkey

RELEASE THE KRAKENETTES! When someone like Diane Harkey can't even break into the top two of bizarre and wacky GOP women on the primary ballot, you KNOW that we're in for an interesting election!

Here are the fearless predictions from Orange Juice Blog staff and prominent commenters for the June election.  In four races, our prognosticators have been asked to choose an exact percentage of the vote.

VERN NELSON, editor:

Damn.  I don’t really feel like making predictions, and there are only a few races tomorrow that I care a whole lot about.  I WILL state “realistic preferences” for those,  what I’m rooting for, with my fingers crossed:

Most importantly – WISCONSIN – for Scott Walker to be recalled.  And by a wide enough margin that we won’t be suffering through recounts for the next five months.  I know that’s not a local race exactly, but we DID make Scott Walker run away when he came to Newport for dough last December.

AD 69. Resigned to the slippery and unscrupulous corporatist Tom Daly making it thru the top-two primary, I’m hoping that his opponent turns out to be Julio Perez, for a real black-and-white, good-and-evil contrast, as opposed to the flaky Michele Martinez, who only aspires to be the sort of politician Daly is.

FULLERTON. Still feeling bold, but unsure of what a Bushala majority would actually do, I’m rooting for the recall but hope only one of Tony’s guys wins.  That could be Travis for a Rowe-Rands-Kiger victory, or Sebourn for a Rowe-Sebourn-Georgieff victory.  This seems totally unpredictable as long as Republicans are evenly divided between keeping the old guard and replacing them with ultra-conservatives;  it all depends on Democrats, progressives and independents coming out.  Like all these races do!

AD 74. (Newport/Costa Mesa/Huntington)  I’d love to see Bob Rush get through the top-two primary to face either troglodyte Mansoor or big-money empty-suit Daigle.  Not sure how likely that is, it all depends on you Dems, independents, and Geoff-West-lunchbox-Republicans down there to carry the day.  Then in the summer and Fall, Rush/Mansoor or Rush/Daigle would be a VERY interesting race that I would cover a lot.

AD 72. (Huntington/Westminster/FV etc)  I hope that Godzilla Troy Edgar and King Kong Travis Allen beat each other up enough that my friend Joe Dovinh can sneak in.  I’ve had my differences with Joe, but at least I know he’d probably usually vote the right way if he got in.  On the other hand, a Godzilla vs. King Kong Edgar/Allen showdown lasting FIVE MORE MONTHS would be very pleasing (AND expensive to the Republican Party) so maybe THAT’S the best outcome.  Well, however it shakes out, I’ll be paying attention to it starting next week.  Oh – here’s something you don’t see every day … unless you happen to drive up the 405:

And I thought Troy Edgar was the big-money candidate!

I’m also hoping that RON PAUL gets enough votes in California to help make things difficult and awkward for Mitt Romney come the convention, as well as let Republican leadership know that a huge chunk of their grass roots wants an end to endless wasteful war and a restoration of their civil liberties lost under both Bush and Obama.  (I did MY bit!)

Those are pretty much the only things I care much about tomorrow.  Of course I hope my friends Greg Diamond, Ron Varasteh, Steve Young, and Sharon Q-S (and Jay Chen / D’Marie) get reasonably close to a respectable 40% in their races so that the Democratic Party at least considers helping them a little in the months to come.


GREG DIAMOND, associate editor.  Predictions and Preferences:

President: Prefer: Barack H. Obama (Democratic), Ron Paul (Republican); Predict: Obama, Romney
**U.S. Senate: Preference: David Levitt; Prediction: (1) Dianne Feinstein with 44%; (2) Elizabeth Emken with 8%
Congress 38: Linda Sanchez (predict & prefer) + whoever else doesn’t matter
*Congress 39: Prefer: Jay Chen (D’Marie 2nd); Predict: (1) Royce, (2) Chen
Congress 45: Prefer: Sukhee Kang; Predict: (1) Campbell, (2) Kang
*Congress 46: Prefer: Loretta; Predict: Loretta, Jerry Hayden
*Congress 47: Prefer: Lowenthal; Predict: (1) Lowenthal, (2) DeLong
Congress 48: Prefer: Ron Varasteh; Predict: (1) Rohrabacher, (2) Varasteh
Congress 49: Prefer: Tetelman; Predict: (1) Issa, (2) Tetalman
**State Senate 29: Prefer: <>.  Predict: (1) Huff, (2) Diamond; margin (in June) will probably be somewhere between 5 and 50 points; let’s choose 64-36% as the average.
State Senate 37: Prefer: Young; Predict: (1) Walters, (2) Young
Assembly 55: Prefer: Gregg Fritchle; Predict: (1) Curt Hagman, (2) Fritche
*Assembly 65: Prefer: Sharon Quirk-Silva; Predict: (1) Norby, but by embarrassingly little given his bigger campaign to-date; (2) SQS
Assembly 68: Prefer: Christine Avalos; Predict: (1) Wagner, (2) Avalos
*Assembly 69: Prefer: Julio Perez; Predict: (1) Tom Daly, (2) November’s winner Julio Perez
*Assembly 72: Prefer: Joe Dovinh; Predict: (1) Troy Edgar, (2) Joe Dovinh, (3) Travis Allen punches someone
Assembly 73: Prefer: Jim Corbett; Predict: (1) Diane Harkey, (2) Corbett
*Assembly 74: Prefer: (1) Bob Rush, (2) Leslie Daigle; Predict: (1) Leslie Daigle, (2) Allen Mansoor

Judge: the incumbent
*County School Board 1: Prefer: Eleazar Elizondo; Predict: Nguyen (with less than 50%); Elizondo edges Hammond for spot in runoff

County School Board 3: Prefer: Mary Galuska, a Republican; Predict: Williams
Supes 1: don’t bother
**Supes 3: Prefer and predict that Spitzer trounces Pauly by 30 points, 65-35%

Prop 28 (term limit reform): Prefer and Predict Yes
**Prop 29 (cigarette tax): Prefer and Predict Yes,

County Measure A (appointed Public Administrator): Prefer No; Predict Yes, 62-38%
County Measure B (mild pension reform): Prefer and Predict Yes
Brea City Measure E (school bond): Prefer and Predict Yes

OJ Contributors, add in your thoughts here!

Mika Wallace, our Occupy correspondent:  “I agree with Greg on everything except for Prop 29.   I voted No. I smell a rat…too many unknowns.   And we can’t do anything about it for 15 years.”  (Vern:  I voted no on both Propositions.  I have no problem with term limits the way they are.  And I see no reason to believe that another dollar of cig taxes would be administered any better than the first 50 cents is now on “First Five.”  Now, if this tax were going right to the General Fund, it might be another story…)

Matt Munson, our young rebellious Republican correspondent:

President: Romney is going to win the majority of the districts. Ron Paul decided to make a dumb move to not invest much money after his tours of the universities of our state. I am fearful that Romney will make a clean sweep of California, Ron was relying on the caucuses and states that offer delegates by conventions. Unfortunately it is winner take all by congressional district. I am hoping for Ron to at least win San Fransisco and Oakland areas.Voters are sadly brainwashed by the mainstream media and will accept Romney as the defacto choice without questioning it.

US Senate: Rick Williams is my choice, but I am fearful that it will be Feinstein, then Orly Taitz.

Congressional District 39: Most likely Royce and Chen. As a Republican I would be tempted to vote for Ed Royce, but sadly most incumbents do need to be flushed down the drain.

Congressional District 46: Loretta is still popular no matter what happens to her, but the Republican will in the top 2 to run against Loretta in November.

Congressional District 47: Alan Lowenthal has the name ID, but Gary DeLong will join Alan in November.

State Senate 29: The margin for Huff and Diamond will be tough to determine for the June election since the Presidential Primary leans Republican this year. I am guessing 61R/39D now and 55R/45D in November.

Assembly District 65: Norby, he is an independent thinker who was against redevelopment agencies before Jerry Brown made that movement cool.

Assembly District 72: Travis Allen will be the front runner, he comes from money and that is why he will be the front runner.

Assembly District 74: Leslie Daigle will be my choice due to being sponsored by Charles Munger where she will be the front runner. Allan Mansoor will be the second finisher due to his incumbency.

Proposition 28: No is my vote, I do not want to be stuck with Bob Huff for 8 more years. But people got bamboozled and will vote Yes for this.

Proposition 29: Yes is my vote, I do not want taxpayers to be stuck paying for future tobacco related cancer patients. Less people smoke tobacco products, less people get sick, less people have to pay for their medical bills. Sometimes you have to waste money to save money.

OC Board of Education:
Seat 1: Art Pedroza will be my wildcard pick.
Seat 3: Ken Williams

OC Board of Supervisors
District 3: Todd will beat Deborah Pauly, even though it would be tempting to see her as a BOS member.

Gabriel San Roman, independent progressive correspondent:

I predict that everything I prefer will lose…and BIG! Especially all my de facto NOTA (none of the above) blanks!

President: Here’s to hoping that Jill Stein doesn’t lose to the attraction of celebrity that is represented by Rosanne Barr and her embarrassing Zeitgeist documentary politics. (Green Party)

U.S. Senate: No Duane Roberts this year? Pick from one of the two Peace and Freedom Party candidates.

Prop. 28: NO!

Prop. 29: NO!

* To borrow the all CAPS ‘A LA CHINGADA CON’ refrain of ¡ Ask A Mexican! *

Fulas Recall: A LA CHINGADA CON los tres cacahuates! Jane Rands for Bankhead’s silla!

WisCompton Recall: A LA CHINGADA CON Scott Walker!

That’s it for me, for now. See you in November, cabrones!

Ron and Ana Winship, our old-school but moderate Republican correspondents:

Duane Roberts, angry Green correspondent:

Am I forgetting anyone else?

The rest of y’all, don’t forget to vote tomorrow if you haven’t!

About Admin

"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.