Consider the facts: Analysts place the average midterm loss for the party in the White House at around 15 to 44 seats, depending on which elections are counted — only elected presidents, midterm elections since the Civil War, midterm elections since World War II, comparable-sized congresses, first and second midterm elections and so on. The average first midterm election loss for every elected president since 1914 is 27 House seats and three Senate seats.
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In his first midterm election, George W. Bush picked up six House seats and two Senate seats — making him, according to The New York Times, “the first Republican president to gain House seats in an off-year election” and only the third president of either party to pick up House seats in a midterm election since the Civil War.
The question is, do you believe there are more races for Democrats to win? Can Barack Obama do as well as George W Bush??
How did it (the left wing) achieve these majorities? It did so lifted by the wings of moderate, centrist Democrats who mastered their GOP opponents throughout the country. It was not liberals who defeated Republican incumbents in the House and Senate. It was moderates, future members of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). The only reason Pelosi is Speaker is that a fresh crop of moderate Democrats ousted Republican incumbents in the House.
If you understand that a good patch of Democrats won by being better Republicans, just how many seats are left out there for voters that really believe the leftist socialism of Barack Obama? And how well will Democrats do running as Republicans in those districts? Don’t we argue again and again that Republicans lose because they act like Democrats? That also works the other way around…
I’m not arguing that any house will change hands. Not yet. But this is pure political science 101 boys and girls. I say 20 House Seats and 3 Senate seats go back GOP. Lets see who’s living in the real world…
There wont be an election, fascism will take over from a bankrupt democracy.
Here’s a link to a breakdown of party gains and losses in midterm elections. http://uspolitics.about.com/od/elections/l/bl_mid_term_election_results.htm
As you can see, the results are very erratic, and the swings can be attributed to major events like the Depression, the Second World War, Cold War anti-communist fears, Civil Rights backlash, the rise of the religious right as a political factor, etc.
Reapportionment will be a big factor and likely give the Republicans a bump up in 2012 as red sun belt states pick up additional seats and blue states in the northeast lose seats. That will help a little, but the big challenge for the GOP will be to grow past its old-white-people image and bring in optimistic young people, and entrepeneurial and religious types from among people of color. I don’t see that happening as soon as 2010, but long term it is very feasible.
Cook
I’m locked and loaded in a cul-de-sac. 10% of me believes you.
Now there’s a truly frightening thought, having Terry Crowley for a neighbor.
Democrats get a chance every once in a while to win they always blow it, but never so bad as they have with Obama\
There won’t be another demoratic President of thirty years after Obama continues to lose for America
We should be proud that we have the first chinese agent president in history.