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UPDATE 2/2: Sorry, folks — I was in a rush and I blew it. Mea culpa. I’ve been working on an emergency matter in a case involving keeping a serial rapist away from a potential pool of victims (where I’ve just finished the “emergency” part within the past hour), and it didn’t leave me time to check the figures. I’m on to another matter (which I had had to put off now), but will get to my analysis of the race — including Chumley’s accusation that Dunn was probably (or was it just “might be”? dunno, but he sure made a lot of noise about it!) lying about his October receipts — as soon as I can, which probably means publication on Thursday.
Meanwhile you can feast your eyes on the accurate end-of-year reports for Bao, Brandman, Correa, Dunn, and Lynn Schott. I’m looking forward to learning what the big contribution to Correa from “other committees” — which is the only thing that kept him a nose ahead of Dunn for the quarter — involved. And I’ve done a few more calculation to get at a statistic that we might call “Estimated Actual Cash in Campaign.”
As usual, I will announce: I don’t like having to be the one to do this, because sometimes I do get really busy and can’t do the sort of job that I’d like. If you understand this sort of data and are able to pitch in — conscientiously, of course — you’re welcome to do so!
See you later! — Greg
In the CA-46 race, Joe Dunn raised $131,274 in the Q4 (fourth quarter, or October-December) period while Lou Correa raised just $76,001.
In the (obviously somewhat misleading) overall figures, Correa reported $116,539 in 2015. and Dunn reported $113,160.
Bao Nguyen’s figures are not yet available online (although they were filed on time.) More on this as it develops. Corrections may, of course, be possible.
UPDATE: Bao hauled in $54,030 in the fourth quarter of last year, which is pretty good in its own terms, but not on a pace with his opponents.
Meanwhile, Correa is sending out an email bragging about the same ridiculous poll that he chartered last year and about his “dominating” Dunn by getting 17 votes to 15 votes in the Democratic Party nominating meeting last Saturday, while 8 (including, and mostly associated with, Loretta Sanchez) voted for no endorsement. “DOMINATING”! His emails are, if nothing else, at least funny! Bao didn’t get any votes at the nominating meeting — he was out sick, although he was ably represented by Jeff LeTourneau. Had he shown up, he could not have voted for himself. My sense is that he had a lot of goodwill in the room, but not so much for this particular race. Various Dunn people want to see him run for Supervisor against Andrew Do. Correa wants to him to stay in the race, of course, so that he can split the liberal vote with Dunn and then, presumably, suck eggs.
If Irvine Republican Lynn Schott runs — and frankly why not? — then it eats significantly into Correa’s strategy. If Lynn’s in and Bao’s out then Lou is going to have a tough road making it into the top two.
Summary of Year-End Reports (including Q4 revenue and expenses) for the 5 candidates who were or are getting into the race:
Summary Table for Q4 Revenue and Cash on Hand:
Bao: $23,624 (Oct-Dec), $43,113 (EOY COH “End of Year Cash on Hand”)
Brandman: $5,209 (Oct-Dec), $47,552 (EOY COH)
Correa: $116,539 (Oct-Dec — $45,022 is from “Other Committees”), $251,832 (EOY COH)
Dunn: $113,160 (Oct-Dec — $10,150 is from “Other Committees”), $175,548 (EOY COH)
Schott: $5,253 (Oct-Dec — $5,ooo from candidate loan), $4,223 (EOY COH)
Looks like Correa has much more Cash on Hand that Dunn, right? Watch how the books seem to have been cooked!
Summary Table for Canmpaign Expenditures:
Bao: $30,868
Correa: $15,793 (including $1,500 contribution refund, so more like $14,293)
Dunn: $67,389 (including $4,150 “other disbursements, so $63,239 in operating expenses)
Commentary on the Above Summary
Bao’s $43,113 was all raised for this campaign and he’s spent $30,868 on this campaign. So a “raised for plus already spent on this campaign” would be $73,981.
Correa’s $251,832 includes $45,002 from “Other Committees” — he didn’t raise it to run for Congress! So in terms of fundraising prowess, Correa’s COH is down to $206,830. And he’s only spent $14,293, so COH (raised for this election) + Expenditures to Date (on this election) = $221,123.
Dunn’s $175,548 includes $10,150 from “Other Committees” — not raised to run for Congress. So that brings funds raised for this race down to $165,398. But, he has also already spent $63,239 (plus maybe another $4,150) to win his race for Congress, which presumably wasn’t wasted. Add that in and the total “raised for + spend on this race” is $238,787.
That means that Dunn has raised and spent $238,787 and had $10,150 transfers = $248,937.
Meanwhile, Correa has raised and spent $221,123 and had $45,002 transferred = $266,125.
That $17,188 gap in what I’ll call “Estimated Real Cash in Campaign” or “ERCIC” — both kinetic (active) and potential (reserve) — is probably a good estimate of how much money in total each has really had going for campaign purposes. Correa’s cash on hand only looks a lot higher because he hasn’t yet paid his bills!
Meanwhile, putting aside transfers, Dunn was raising $37,720/month ($113,160/3) in Q4, while Correa was raising $23,839/month ($71,517/3) in Q4 — a difference of $13,881/month. If that trend continues, Dunn would be expected to pull ahead of Correa in terms of total fuel in the campaign tank, or ERCIC — although it might not be apparent until Correa pays his campaign bills, assuming that he does — right about February 8. And that’s next Monday.
Year-End Reports (including Q4 revenue and expenses) for the 5 candidates who were or are getting into the race:
BAO
BRANDMAN
CORREA
DUNN
SCHOTT
DATA FROM ORIGINAL POST BELOW:
Q4 REPORTS FOR 2015
CORREA
DUNN
REPORT DETAILS FOR 2015
CORREA
DUNN
FULL REPORTS FOR 2015 (JUST AS PROOF OF ABOVE)
CORREA
DUNN
Remind us what ws it that was being debated about the finance reports? Is this number at or above what was claimed and was ridiculed by the DINO-OC?
Yes, Paul. That was Chumley’s big criticism of Joe Dunn, that he probably hadn’t really raised that much money, and that he and Carina were probably lying about it since she wouldn’t jump through hoops to prove it to him.
You KNOW he would have reported on this weeks ago if he were right.
How could you expect the DINO-O to admit that he is wrong? what are you loco? I was just remembering this morning when Correa abandoned his BOS seat to run for Senate after the party, labor and donor universes gave blood and green to help him win the BoS seat. Then when he had to go up against Lynn Daucher there were Democrats endorsing Lynn Daucher because she had a better position on women’s reproductive choice. Imagine that for a second. There were Democrats endorsing Correa’s Republican opponent because Lou’s record on women’s reproductive freedom and choice was so horrible,
Remember who any of those Dems were, or in what way his record on women’s issues was “horrible?”
I remember Katrina Foley being one of the Dems who endorsed Daucher over that specific issue. i know there were a few more women who endorsed Daucher instead of Correa for that specific issue. I can say after reviewing position statements from stake holders that Correas record on reproductive rights are in the 70-80% range. Where as Dunns are 100%.
Lou’s stats on crime and courts are 33% if you look at the social justice advocates issues and 100% if you look a the prison guard union issues. You should call katrina Foley to ask who joined her in that race endorsing Daucher.
I think Paul Lucas has selective (wishful) thinking. I can’t think of more than two low profile dem’s who supported Lynn.
We get it Paul, you don’t like Lou….You support Joe.
Paul Lucas HAD his chance and ruined it. His waords are nothing but blather and commentary at this point. Really tryingvto destroy Correa with this garbage…….
I think you need to read the report a bit more carefully.
What, cash-on-hand? C vs. H committees? I’ll get to those, but I’m working against a deadline today and sometimes blogging has to take second place to making a living! Go ahead and be less cryptic in your criticism, if you’d like; I can take it.
Diamond: “Go ahead and be less cryptic in your criticism, if you’d like; I can take it.”
Is that supposed to be a f**king joke????
Well, he seems to have something useful to say that seems worth hearing.
That explains why I don’t generally issue that sort of invitation to you.
Try reading the forms you put up better. There are dates on them. Your headline is wrong. Those numbers are the previous quarter ending 9/30. But keep shilling for Dunn
I cannot read these pages I think you should add them in a hyperlink or something. I would be interested in seeing who is donating to Correa.
Funny, that’s exactly what I think that you should do, slacker! Go to http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/candcmte_info.shtml and get busy! I’m getting back to work.
*Lou has had his chances. He is up against a very terrific human being and we will
wish Joe all the best. Joe Dunn willl make one terrific Congressperson.
Lou Correa’s donor base should be cause for concern to anybody tired of the undue influence of money in Washington. 41% of the money Lou raised in the last quarter was PAC money (including donations from Gaming Tribes). For the prior two quarters, that figure was 38% and 28%, respectively, in PAC money.
Lou’s “Individual” donors are also scary, including over a dozen lobbyists from Washington and California. These include Sloat Higgins Jensen (Kevin Sloat having the honor of the largest FPPC fine in history, in part for undisclosed “In Kind” contributions to Lou Correa) and Darius Andersen of Platinum Advisors (who paid $500,000 in fines to settle Pay-To-Play charges brought by the NY Attorney General). Sloat’s wife made the donation, joined by Sloat’s partner, Kelly Jensen. Washington DC lobbyist donors include members of Ogilvy Governmental Relations. Lou was one of the legislators benefitting from Sloat’s unreported donations. His defense? “I just stopped by for a minute and did not notice anything.” He received a warning from the FPPC as well.
More of the same Pay-to Play advocacy in DC is not what we need. Think Lou will give the money back? Doubt it.