Saturday 7pm OC Results Update
While the rest of the nation celebrated the Senate remaining in Democrat hands, the OC Registrar released new election results, TWICE – first at 5pm, which I ignored because I knew they were gonna do it again at 7pm! Since last night they have counted 52,427 more of us – bringing the percentage of counted REGISTERED VOTERS from 39.6% to 42.5%. (This means there are still about 250k more votes to count, I think?)
- CA-45 “A nation turns its hopeful eyes to” Jay Chen, as he slowly, slowly, cuts down his deficit behind the odious Michelle Steel – he’s up from 41% Wednesday to 46.3% today, 12,500 votes behind the racist dingbat. Only 63% of the votes in this race have been counted, meaning about 83,000 votes are left to count – mostly from more-Democratic LA County because they’re slower – so it’s way too early to give up on Jay! The Congress and nation need him! UPDATE Monday night – the AP has called this race for the fascist Steel – a tragedy that Greg or I should memorialize in prose.
- CA-47 Katie Porter has increased her lead over Scott Baugh from 4555 votes to 5337, and is now at 51.3% – slight but welcome progress which old Scotty will be hard-pressed to erase.
- CA-49 Mike Levin is surging slowly in the manner of a Democrat, against that Maryott fellow, growing his lead from 3644 Wednesday to 10,683 today. Oooh. I don’t think that Maryott fellow will overcome that!
- SD-38 Laudable Encinitas Mayor Kathleen Blakespear has increased her lead over Big-Oil Matt Gunderson to 10,751, putting her at 51.9% where on Wednesday she was at 50.3%. That’s a surge! I guess the oil companies WASTED that $1.8 MILLION on Oily Matt’s race! D’OH!
- AD-67 Our good friend Sharon Quirk-Silva (whose imminent defeat was prematurely celebrated by Matt Cunningham) has increased her lead to 2,450 votes, putting her ar 51.5% to Soo Yoo’s 48.5%. Whoops, Matt!
- OC SUPERVISOR.
- Progressive Democrat Sarmiento increased his lead over conservative Kim B Nguyen from 230 to 510, putting him at 50.4%.
- We won’t talk about the Chaffee-Park race any more – too depressing and hopeless.
- Katrina Foley has increased her lead over superannuated Republican Pat Bates, from 4422 votes to 4965, putting her at 51.3%.
- ANAHEIM District 2, the only one that’s moving – it looks like establishment Dem Carlos Leon could catch up and overtake appointed Disney candidate Gloria Ma’ae! For a slightly better but still Disney/cabal-controlled council. (Carlos has assured me he supports Campaign Finance Reform, as do Ashleigh, Faessel, and – maybe a little more weakly – Natalie R.) On Wednesday Gloria’s lead was 386 votes; Carlos has now cut that lead down to 211, and we estimate about 4000 votes left in that district. By Jove.. no, wait, I keep saying that. [UPDATE MONDAY – Gloria’s lead is down to 171. UPDATE TUESDAY – Carlos is now THREE VOTES AHEAD.]
- IRVINE. Will Republican incumbent Anthony Kuo catch up with Dr. Treseder? Only one of them can be on the Irvine Council. I didn’t realize till yesterday that Farrah’s biggest allies on the Council are the two Republicans. But let’s not get into that just now; we just want Treseder to win. And her lead over Kuo continues to grow: from 490 votes on Wednesday, to 756 on Thursday, to 1181 yesterday, to 1405 now! You’ve heard of “The Low Spark of High-Heeled Boys?” Well, this is the Slow Surge of the Progressive Democratic Climate Scientist.
Other little notes:
If ANY of the Santa Ana races turn in the right direction – toward the progressive candidate – it would be Ward 2, where our friend Benjamin Vasquez looks like he COULD overtake conservative Dem Nelida Mendoza – he is only 83 votes behind (which is more than it sounds like in that anemically-voting ward) but that IS down from 129 votes on Wednesday. [UPDATE MONDAY – Nelida’s lead is down to 22!!!] Come on, SanTana, where’s the Spirit of 2020?? [UPDATE TUESDAY the 15th – Ben is now 14 votes ahead!]
Costa Mesa‘s Democratic Incumbent Sweep could be imperiled along with Councilwoman Andrea Marr, who is now uncomfortably only 75 votes over challenger John Thomas Patton. WHO? Well, Andrea seems good, but I’m also against one-party rule, so… let’s see how THAT goes.
And finally, in San Clemente where the top three vote-getters will join Council, we were glad to see that insane Trumpy Steve Knoblock – who had brought embarrassment to his town by trying to ban abortion and trying to make voting harder (both unsuccessfully) – coming in fourth behind OJB-endorsed Donna Vidrine. Yes, we were relieved, but now we are troubled, because Knoblock has MAGA-surged past Vidrine and is now NINETEEN VOTES AHEAD OF DONNA! If that doesn’t turn around, Steve could have four more years to embarrass his town and get it in the news for bad reasons. Oh well… FORGET ABOUT IT JAKE, IT’S JUST SAN CLEMENTE.
going back in time…
to a time when control of the Senate was still in question….
FRIDAY UPDATE: The Democrats’ Slow Surge.
Our OC Registrar has now counted the votes of 39.6% of registered OC voters – up from yesterday’s 36.9, a 2.7% increase. They’ve now counted 720,470 of our votes, and they told me this afternoon that they expect to count about 300K more. That seems a little low compared to the 2018 midterm turnout, but even so it means we’re only 2/3 through.
Also: We’ve seen so far that each new batch of votes is skewing Democrat. And we’ve just seen the same thing in Nevada and Arizona [By Jove, I think we’ve got it!] We’re seeing Democrat candidates slowly eating away at the leads of, or increasing their leads over, their Republican opponents. When it’s one sort of Democrat running against another sort of Democrat, it’s more of a mixed bag. Let’s check out the “slow surges” (or not) of each of OJB’s favorite candidates:
- CA 45 – Jay Chen surged in the last two days from 41% to 46%, against Michelle Steel – Steel was 14,000 ahead and now that’s down to a 12,701 difference. Come on District 45, we need a lot more of that – the nation needs you!
- CA 47 – Katie Porter surged, since last night, from 50.8% over Baugh to 51.2%, from 3000 votes over him to 4,555 – THAT’s what we like to see!
- CA 49 – Mike Levin has surged since Wednesday from 51% to 52.1% – he WAS 3644 votes ahead of that Maryott fellow, now that’s 9073 votes!
- SD 38 – Katherine Blakespear has surged, in the last two days, from 50.3% to 51.6%; she now holds a 8,218 lead over Matt Gunderson despite Big Oil spending a record $1.8 MILLION on him! – Now THAT is cool.
- AD 67 – Sharon Quirk-Silva is surging NICELY, up to 51.2% over Soo Yoo’s 48.8% – NEARLY TWO THOUSAND votes ahead after being BEHIND two days ago!
- AD 74 – In the South County, Democrat Chris Duncan was 9.4% behind MAGA toll-troll Laurie Davies – but apparently he’s also been “slowly surging” and is now 6.4% (59,076 to 67,187.)
- Supe 2 – in our first Dem-on-Dem race, progressive Sarmiento has increased his lead over conservative KBN from 48 votes to 230 – putting Vince at 50.2% and Kim at 49.8! And she was ahead two days ago…
- Supe 4, another Dem-on-Dem. Our progressive pal Sunny Park is surging very slowly and from WAY behind conservative incumbent Chaffee… that race is now Doug 56.25% to Sunny 43.75%.
- Supe 5, Dem Katrina Foley just keeps growing her lead over Republican Pat Bates, to 4,422 votes now! (Foley 51.3% to Bates 48.7%.
- ANAHEIM. NO movement. Disney prevails.
- IRVINE. Second-place Council candidate Treseder has widened her lead over 3rd-place Kuo, from 756 to 1181, which’d make a Councilwoman Treseder and an ex-Councilman Kuo. Sadly, challenger Branda Lin is making no headway against Mayor Khan.
Well, that’s all I have for you right now. But, How ’bout that Nevada and Arizona!?!?
going back in time…
Short update Thursday evening
This is still going slow – since yesterday the registrar has counted 41,210 votes, all vote-by-mail. That brings the percentage of registered voters that have been counted from 34.6% to 36.9%. [UPDATE FRIDAY – the Registrar tells me they expect about 300k more votes – which seems low to me based on the 2018 midterm results – but still would mean they’re only about 2/3 done. So ANYTHING could still happen. The remaining ballots are vote by mail or drop-box.]
Except, not too much happened in the last 24 hours when they counted 2.3% more of us. Except for three nice little things:
Katie Porter widened her lead over Scott Baugh from 1552 votes to almost 3000! The race is now Katie 50.8% to Scott at 49.2% – good trend!
In Assembly District 67, Sharon Quirk-Silva was 371 votes behind Republican Soo Yoo, but with a nice influx of 651 votes she’s now 280 ahead – 50.2%. We hope this pattern continues! [EARLY Friday afternoon – the SOS operates on unpredictable schedule – Sharon’s got even MORE votes and now has a 837-Vote advantage! Sharon at 50.6% now.]
And similarly in the 2nd Supervisorial Race, our candidate Vince Sarmiento had been 155 votes behind KB Nguyen but has now passed her up and is up a whopping 48 votes! “Keep chugging, Vince!” we exhorted him last night, and chug he did!
Nothing else dramatic to report that I can see. Later tonight I’ll see if any other leads widened or narrowed notably…
(A little later…)
OK now it’s later, let’s see…
- CA 45 – Jay Chen has narrowed his gap behind the odious Steel, but not by much – he’s gone from 44.1% to 45.4%. KEEP IT UP, JAY!
- CA 49 – Mike Levin has grown his lead over Brian Marryot from 3644 votes to 6652, and now stands at 51.7%.
- SD 38 – Katherine Blakespear, just as I openly hoped last night, has also widened her lead over Oily Matt Gunderson – from 50.3% to 51%. (And no thanks to the OC half of her district, which has Matt at 58.4%!)
- (We already shared the good news about Katie Porter and Sharon Quirk-Silva.)
- AD 74 – Chris Duncan narrowed his deficit against Laurie Davies… microscopically, from 8842 to 8536. Unless there are a shitload of uncounted Democratic ballots in his San Diego portion, looks like he’ll be staying on the San Clemente Council. Brave try though…
- OC SUPERVISORS. We did Vince and Kim. In District 4, conservative Dem Chaffee‘s lead over our candidate Sunny is still over 11,000, although Doug has gone from 56.8% to 56.3% – microscopic progress which’ll certainly not get there. And in the overall pattern of every race getting SLIGHTLY BETTER the more votes are counted, in District 5 Katrina‘s lead over Pat Bates has grown from 2% to 2.26%. Are there still big batches of Republican and/or Reactionary Dem votes out there? What do you think?
- ANAHEIM. Can our Democrat fighters Carlos and Al ever catch up to Disney candidates Gloria and Natalie R? Well, at least Gloria’s lead has shrunk from 386 to 316. But the other race is the first one we’re looking at that’s not making ANY progress, staying stubbornly at 60% to 40%. Hundreds more votes WERE counted in District 3, but I guess the problem is, as Democrats slowly surge, too many Democrats were thinking of Natalie as a Democrat.
- NO movement in the budding police state of Santa Ana – I guess because they’re all allegedly Democrats.
- IRVINE. Second-place Council candidate (so far) Treseder has widened her lead over her pursuer Republican Anthony Kuo, from 490 votes to 756. But scandal-plagued Mayor Farrah has also widened HER lead over challenger Branda Lin. Again, the problem seems to be that people are thinking of Farrah as a Democrat.
- That’s enough for today. We’re done with solid Republican Huntington Beach and solid Democrat Costa Mesa.
going back in time…
Update Wednesday 5pm
Well, THIS is an anti-climax – they counted 1% more of registered voters than yesterday, specifically just under 18,000 Vote-by-Mail ballots. At this rate, well, I doubt many races changed much. This time I’ll put the numbers up.
CONGRESS
- CA 40 – Asif advanced microscopically, Young Kim 58.92% to Mahmood 41.08%. Difference of over 31,000 votes. To avoid pain we will stop covering that race.
- CA 45 – Jay Chen has fallen even farther behind Steel, now 44.09% to 55.91%. Difference of almost 14,000 votes.
- Katie Porter still a fraction ahead of Scott Baugh – 50.45% to 49.55%. Difference of only 1552 votes!
- CA 49 – Mike Levin’s lead over whatsisname has shrunk to exactly 2%, which of necessity means 51% to 49%. Difference of 3644 votes.
STATE SENATE
- SD 34 – Umberg is beating that Placentia Republican lady, as expected, by 55.53% to 44.47%. Last time we’ll look at this race.
- SD 36 – Janet Nguyen is giving poor Kim Carr a thwapping, 59% to 41%. Last time we’ll look at this either. (Hey, Kim still gets to be on HB Council, right? She was good there.)
- SD 38 – Blakespear‘s lead over Big-Oil Gunderson is still slim and I for one hope it widens – 50.3% to 49.7%.
ASSEMBLY
- AD 67 – Sharon Quirk-Silva is still down by 371 against Soo Yoo. Soo 50.3% to SQS 49.7%. I swear I think those were the numbers last night.
- AD 68 – We’ll just look at this one once for shits & giggles – Avelino 58.3% to OJ-protest-endorsed Tardif 41.7%.
- AD 73 – Sadly, corrupt Tri Ta is at 55.3% over reformer Deidre Nguyen at 44.7% – a difference of over 8000. We’ll stop covering that race.
- AD 72, another sad one – Republican Diane Dixon is slaughtering Juice friend Judie Mancuso 57% to 43% – a difference of over 19,000. No more! I can’t take it.
- AD 73 – finally and I can’t explain why, a Democrat incumbent Cottie walloping a Republican incumbent Choi, 54% to 46%, a difference of 6584 votes. We’re done with that too.
- AD 74 – OJ-endorsed Chris Duncan running 8842 votes behind MAGA Laurie Davies – that might seem hopeless but Democratic San Diego County counts so much slower than us that it’s worth keeping an eye on!
SUPERVISORS
- District 2 – the Sheriffs’ Democrat Kim Bernice Nguyen is still holding a teensy lead over progressive Sarmiento, a lead that shrank last night from 176 votes or 0.4% to 155 votes or 0.2%. Keep chugging away Vicente!
- District 4 – it’s painful to see incumbent Doug Chaffee retaining a lead of over 11,000 against Juice favorite Sunny Park; the lead has shrunk very slightly and is now 56.8% to 43.2%, but it looks like Katrina and Vince will be stuck working with Doug, who gets along better with Republicans.
- District 5 – Best Supervisor Ever Katrina Foley retains her 2% lead over kindly Republican relic Pat Bates – the numbers now are 76,591 to 73,537. (Once again we see, as in the primary, how much more enthusiastic the Coastal and South County are about voting than Central and North – by nearly a factor of 3 to 1!)
ANAHEIM
- MAYOR – Democrat Ashleigh Aitken widened her lead a little over cabal member Trevor O’Neil. Widened it from 4% to 5%, or 17,202 to 15,128. By Jove, I believe she won’t be losin’. Also it’s good to see perennial spoiler Galloway coming in THIRD for the THIRD time. Are you gonna stop now?!?
- DISNEY let us have the Mayor, but they bought the REST of the Council.
- District 2 – Disney-funded incumbent Gloria Ma’ae retains a 386-vote lead over establishment Democrat Carlos Leon – that’s 53.1% to 46.8%. MAYBE Carlos can pull this off. He would certainly be better than her.
- District 3 – Disney-funded Democrat Natalie Rubalcava is doing even better against grassroots progressive Al Jabbar, staying 60% – 40% (3404 to 2253, a 1151 difference.)
- District 6 – Worst of all, HEAVILY Disney-funded Pringle crony Natalie Meeks has SLAUGHTERED my good friend Hari Shankar Lal, 9154 to 3604. I can’t look…
SANTA ANA
- If Disney successfully chose and funded Anaheim’s winners, so Gerry Serrano’s Police Union did in Santa Ana. He will be running this town.
- MAYOR – Serrano/developer candidate Valerie Amezcua came in first (40%) over nearly indistinguishable Jose Solorio (29%) leaving the progressive endorsed Democrat Sal Tinajero in the dust (23%) It hasn’t moved much since last night. What happened to you, Santa Ana?
- Ward 2 – Serrano candidate Nelida Mendoza is at 1202 votes or 53% over progressive endorsed Democrat Ben Vasquez at 1073 votes or 47%. Hasn’t moved much since last night either. That’s a … mere 129 vote difference, yet such a percentage gap! I guess people just don’t vote in that town? Or that ward?
- Ward 4 – Odious Serrano candidate Phil Bacerra is at 2683 votes or 58% over endorsed progressive Democrat Amalia Mejia at 1929 votes or 42%. A 454 vote difference, and hasn’t moved much since last night.
- Ward 6 – Lugubrious Serrano candidate David Penaloza is at 1449 or 59% over endorsed progressive Democrat Manny Escamilla with 1020 votes or 41% – a 429 vote difference. This is all very sad. What a fall from last year’s Fighting Progressive Council! (But maybe a few hundred votes will appear?)
IRVINE
The suspense here is:
- In the Mayor’s race – will insurgent Branda Lin overtake corrupt incumbent Farrah Khan? Sadly Farrah’s lead has grown a little since last night; she is now at 36% over Branda’s 27.3%, or 17.612 votes to 13,361 – a 4251-vote gap, difficult to overcome…
- AND in the Council race where the top two win. Old warhorse Larry Agran is comfortably #1, at 24.2%. But will OJ favorite Kathleen Treseder be overcome in her #2 spot by skeevy Republican Anthony Kuo, who is nipping at her heels? Well, since last night she’s pulled away from him a bit, with a 490 vote difference or 0.6%. If that means anything.
- FUN FACT: both Agran and Treseder now have more votes than Mayoral frontrunner Farrah – maybe one of THEM shoulda run for Mayor.
HUNTINGTON BEACH
THIS is horrible:
Tell me it’ll change…
MISCELLANEOUS OC
HERE COMES THE JUDGE: Michele Bell is keeping her healthy lead over Peggy Huang, 55% to 45% – nice. Also nice are the results in Costa Mesa where, as I mentioned last night, GOOD Democrats seem to be comfortably established – so different from the Costa Mesa of Righeimer and Mansoor where corruption competed with racism competing with public employee slashing and privatization.
.Sorry if I haven’t covered your city, you can go here to check on the latest results wherever you live… unless you want to know about a district that covers territory outside this county, then you’d better click HERE. I’ll see you at 5pm tomorrow and I hope there’s something DRAMATIC to report, preferably GOOD DRAMATIC.
going back in time…
(SENATE UPDATE Wed. morning: In Wisconsin, that mendacious ghoul Ron Johnson just beat Mandela Barnes by 1%, which makes me really sad. And in Georgia Warnock and Walker will officially have to go to a runoff next month. For us Democrats to keep the Senate (without depending on the GA runoff), we’re counting on Cortez Masto in Nevada and Mark Kelly in Arizona. Biting of the nails continues…)
going back in time…
Midnight Tuesday night
OK I was at too many events tonight to really “LIVE BLOG” but I gotta make an observation about where we are so far in the OC counting. You’ll see, at the top of the “OC Vote Results” page, a PERCENTAGE – as of midnight it’s at 33%. What does that mean? That’s the percentage of registered voters in OC whose votes have been counted. Nobody knows yet how many people actually voted – not 100%, but how much? I.E. How many votes are left to count? That’s what we always want to know on Election Day night.
Well, I looked at the two previous elections. 2020 was a Presidential election which always has high turnout, and 87% of us voted! More relevantly in 2018, a midterm election like tonight, 71% of us voted. It’d be reasonable to expect tonight’s turnout to have been around the same, 70%, and if so, only about half of our votes have been counted. So a lot of these races are still up in the air.
UPDATE Wednesday morning: I’ve just been made aware of this:
Total Estimated Left to process in Orange County: 292,935
https://ocvote.gov/results/whats-left-to-count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 57,025
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 96,791
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 129,177
So, as of now, here’s where the races we care most about stand:
CONGRESS
- Jay Chen was ahead earlier, but the awful Michelle Steel has been surging and is now at 54.7%. 🙁
- Asif Mahmood has been steadily losing to Young Kim, now 40% to 60%. 🙁
- Katie Porter is still beating Scott Baugh, but by only half a percent (nailbiter!)
- and Mike Levin is doing the best against Bryan Marriot at 52 to 47, although ONLY 30% of precincts have reported because San Diego County is so damn slow!
I’ll do more in the morning, but briefly:
- Board of Supervisors: Katrina Foley was way ahead of Pat Bates most of the night, but now Pat is nipping at her heels, 1% behind. If Katrina pulls it off, we will have an all-Democrat BoS for the first time since the 70’s.
- But WHAT KIND OF DEMOCRATS??? Wealthy DINO Doug Chaffee is 13% ahead of worthy Sunny Park. And progressive Sarmiento, who would be Katrina’s only ally, is neck and neck with the Sheriffs’ candidate Kim B Nguyen, with Kim a fraction of a percent ahead as of midnight – good luck, Vicente!
- In Anaheim Ashleigh is winning for Mayor, while the SOAR candidates Gloria, Natalie and Natalie are currently ahead – Disney thrashing the people of Anaheim again if things don’t turn around dramatically!
- (In a rare bright spot, Jessica Guerrero is ahead of establishment Dem Billie Jo Wright for the Anaheim School Board race.)
- Santa Ana is the worst – all the police union / developer candidates ahead of the progressives. Gerry Serrano will be running this town!
- Or maybe Huntington Beach is the worst – all 4 Probolsky Republicans (they are being funded by the dark OCPA special interests which we’ll be writing much more about) ahead of all 4 of our Democrat friends. [Yes this means GRACEY may be on Council UGH]
- Costa Mesa looks to be safely Democrat – and these are all good Democrats especially the great Arlis Reynolds.
- In Irvine, Farrah is, as expected, still ahead of Branda, but it looks like she’ll have to work with Agran and Dr. Treseder … although dirty Republican Anthony Kuo is sneaking up on Kathleen. Yikes!
- In the two South County races we’re following, which are both partly in slow-counting San Diego, the State Senate is Catherine Blakespear ahead of Matt Big-Oil Gunderson by less than a percent, and the Assembly is moderate Dem Chris Duncan currently losing to MAGA toll-troll incumbent Laurie Davies by 9.4%.
Miscellaneous OC:
- Dodson doesn’t look like he’ll ever catch up with Mike Schaffer who is going to bring the Democrat Party eternal shame.
- On a bright note Michele Bell is beating Peggy Huang for Superior Court – so far.
- Yikes! Sharon Quirk-Silva just slipped behind Soo Yoo, by 371 votes – I guess she was right to worry! Hope that flips, just cuz we like Sharon.
- At least the timid Cottie is beating the mumbling Choi.
Best news nationwide…
- ….is Fetterman’s victory over Oz.
- Warnock‘s ahead of Hershel Walker but not far ahead enough to avoid a December runoff.
- I wish I hadn’t sent so much money to Val Demings. But I’ll always be glad I was able to send money to Fetterman and Warnock.
- The balance on Senate (as well as the House) is STILL UP IN THE AIR as of midnight.
- To keep the Senate, we need Cortez Masto, Mark Kelly,
as well as (for a bonus) Mandela Barnes, to pull it off in the coming days; and also Warnock to nail the Dec 6 runoff to REALLY clinch it. - Second best news was seeing that poisonous snake Kari Lake choke – but with only 56% reporting in Arizona, even that could change…
- NO, second best news may be armed wackadoo Colorado congresswoman Lauren Bohbert looks to be going down!
- MOST SAD FOR: Stacy Abrams, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Asif Mahmood, Hari Shankar Lal…[Wed. morning, add Mandela Barnes.]
See you Wednesday – next OC results are out at 5!
Going back in time…
6 pm Tuesday
Beginning WAY prematurely at 6pm, we’ll be obsessively following THESE RACES in particular:
- Jay Chen vs. Michelle Steel
- Asif Mahmood vs. Young Kim
- Katie Porter vs. Scott Baugh
- Mike Levin vs. some idiot from SJC
- The Congressional numbers nationwide
- The Senate numbers nationwide, ESPECIALLY:
- PA – Fetterman vs. Oz – VICTORY!!!
- GA – Warnock vs. Dingbat – 6pm Warnock ahead but not over…
- WI – Barnes vs. Ghoul. Ghoul is ahead at 11pm.
- OH – Ryan vs. Hillbilly. Hillbilly won.
- AZ – Kelly – YES! Astronaut wins!
- FL – Demings – 6pm that putz Rubio wins 🙁
- NV – Cortez Masto – hanging in there at 11pm!
- NH – Hassan – 6pm still looking good for Maggie but close – YES! she did it
- NC – Beasley – 6pm real close, not over… 8pm, defeat.
- The Arizona Governor Race – GLORIOUSLY, the dangerous KARI LAKE faceplanted!! 🙂
- The Georgia Governor Race – 6pm looks like it’ll be Kemp 🙁
- The Texas Governor Race – BETO LOST TO that mean man in the wheelchair. 🙁
- The Florida Governor Race – 6pm that menace De Santis 🙁
- Secretaries of State nationwide – to be reported on
- Dave Dodson vs. Scumbag – as of 11pm, doesn’t look like David has a chance – hope the Party is Proud.
- Michele Bell vs. Peggy Huang – so far Bell is pretty far ahead!! 🙂
- Katrina Foley vs. Pat Bates – as of 11pm, Katrina is pretty far ahead!!! 🙂 Best OC news so far.
- Vince Sarmiento vs. Kim B Nguyen – as of 11 too close to call
- Sunny Park vs. Doug Chaffee – as of 11 too close to call
- ANAHEIM – Al Jabbar – as of 11 not looking good
- Hari Lal – as of 11 looking bad
- Ashleigh Aitken – as of 11 looking good
- Carlos Leon – as of 11 pretty close
- Jessica Guerrero – as of 11 doing good!
- SANTA ANA – SO FAR LOOKING ALL BAD – Gerry Serrano will rule this town for at least 2 years. 🙁
- IRVINE – Treseder and Agran looking good as of 11.
- Branda Lin vs. Farrah
- All the Republicans are beating all our Dem friends in HB – yes, even Gracey is winning. So far.
- Costa Mesa is now a safely Democrat town; and some if not all of those Democrats are good! Especially Arlis.
Porter and Levin are looking okay-ish!
Getting uncomfortably close with Katie…
I know….went to bed feeling good, but now I’m getting nauseous.
I went to bed at 1am feeling nauseous, now feeling more hopeful.
Total Estimated Left to process in Orange County: 292,935
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 57,025
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 96,791
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 129,177
Looks like nothing will happen in Anaheim during Ashleigh’s reign or she is already lame duck.
It’ll be like Mayor Tait from 2012-16, if you can remember that.
Total Estimated Left to process in Orange County: 292,935
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 57,025
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 96,791
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 129,177
Here’s my hot take:
Progressive Dems got slaughtered in Anaheim and Santa Ana. Very disappointing. Sarmiento is neck to neck for seat.
DPOC Hand-picked Establishment tools I meant candidates are generally NOT faring much better. Overall, OC is proving it is still very much Republican area.
Irvine we are hoping for a clean blue wave sweep, although that means Farrah gets to keep her seat for 2 more years, pending FBI Investigations (holding out hope for Branda’s supporters to close the gap in VBM counts).
OC is not red?
Gov. 53R/47D
Lt. Gov. 53/R/47D
US Sen. 53R/47D
US Sen. 53R/47D
Treasurer 54.5R/45.5D
AG 54R/46D
SoS 53R/47D
Controller 56.5R/53.5D
OC IS NOT RED ..??
See what you wanna see, Mike. OC chose Hillary over Trump and chose Biden over Trump, and just a couple years ago every one of our Congresscritters was a Democrat. We had a little backslide from that, but still half or more than half of them are. This is a boring argument. Yeah, Tardif lives here so we’re red.
I think the the governing rule may be something like “the more Lincoln Club and local corporate money is diluted by a larger messaging environment, the Bluer OC gets. You don’t see tons of glossy mailers in the Presidential and US Senate races.
That’s exactly why I’m saying that the early votes — Precinct Zero early VBMs and a couple of gigantic votes center/drop box votes that seem to be out of Little Saigon — are not representative of what we’ll see in the later VBM (procrastinators) votes and most of the rest of the Vote Centers.
Those numbers may hold up, but there’s good reason to doubt it. We’ll see soon enough.
Personally, I’d call OC pretty bright purple overall, which is one reason politics here are especially interesting!
Did it ever occur to you meatheads that perhaps the people of Santa Ana gave up on the failed dream of progressive Utopia.
Crime is rampant, Zombies EVERYWHERE, Unlicensed street vendors (El Toxic Taco’s) inundate the city, roads suck, traffic is back to 2017 level.
In a city of 476,000 (YES, the undercoat is < 100k).
Why does everything center around Vern's anti- cop rhetoric and Greg's phony understanding of ANYTHING Santa Ana.
Hmm. Why is Vince NOT being called out for his $4m home?
Sounds like a hopeless dystopia, “Claudia.”
Thank you for your benighted opinion.
AND when I bemoan a city being run by a police UNION, especially a union run by such a greedy shameless crook as GERRY SERRANO, that is NOT “anti-cop rhetoric.”
Hey Vern & Greg –
I am gratified that I had great campaign supporters like you two. I should end up winning 40%+ of the total vote. I consider myself winning the support of thousands of Californians who want to see our state heading in a more positive direction – with lower taxes, quality education & safer neighborhoods.
I was able to speak of conservative values to many people – especially Hispanics of central Orange Country – who are learning that the Republican Party is the party that aligns with their conservative values. I connected with many Republicans who I would not otherwise have connected with. I would call all that a “win.”
All the best my friends.
Mike Tardif
PS: My 40%+ of the total vote is a significant improvement over the 2020 election for the same district area which was 27%.
You let us down, Tardif. You let us down.
Just kidding. I don’t think that the 2020 election is a good comparison, though.
Tom Daly was a much stronger opponent in 2020 than the mostly unknown Avelino Valencia was this year. That’s why Daly had to airdrop Avelino into the race as his chosen heir at the last moment.
I wonder what the odds are on his surviving the full two years, as the AnaHeist investigation lumbers back into gear? You may get another shot before 2024.
OC released some new results at 5pm Saturday – they’d counted 1.9% more of us, and there was very little movement. Maybe most notably, to Anaheim voters, Carlos Leon is inching up on Gloria in District 2 – only 250 behind now!
But they’re gonna release more at 7, so I’ll wait till then to report.
And Democrats just kept the Senate. I think Greg will be writing about this welcome development. We dodged a bullet for sure, McConnell wouldn’t have let Biden appoint ANY judges, among other things. And we’re gonna get one more with Warnock in December, which means we won’t have to kiss Joe Manchin’s ring all the time! You heard it here first (maybe)
The DPOC has helped make Tammy Kim the most powerful person in Irvine. She may not be smart enough to realize that. And, she’ll probably expose herself and the DPOC as moronic while trying to exert that power. Farrah turned Kim into Munchin/Cinema.
Most powerful politician in city government for the next two years, perhaps. Wagner, Min, and other non-pols are more powerful overall.
Farrah and Carroll may think that they own her, but they clearly pose political dangers to her, re OCPA, and maybe more than merely political. She clearly doesn’t like Agran, but if she gets along with Treseder they will pose a serious voting bloc who can navigate between Agran and the OCPA faction. If Agran tries to exert ownership over Treseder Thad way that he tried and failed to do over Kim, though, he may blow it for himself.
Branda Lin would seem to have a good chance for City Council next cycle, though, if she gets along with Kim and Treseder. (Sadly, this may take her somewhat out of the local journalism game.)
OJ Candidates who are Winning:
Michele Bell, Judge
Katie Porter, CA 47
Mike Levin, CA 49
Kathleen Blakespear, SD 38
Sharon Quirk-Silva, AD 67
(Cottie Petrie-Norris, AD 73)
Vince Sarmiento, Supe 2
Katrina Foley, Supe 5
Ashleigh Aitken, Anaheim Mayor
All our Costa Mesa candidates (except MAYBE Marr)
Larry Agran & Kathleen Treseder, Irvine Council
Jessica Guerrero, AUHSD
OJ Candidates who are behind but gaining!
Jay Chen, CA 45
Chris Duncan, AD 74
Carlos Leon, Anaheim d2
Ben Vazquez, Santa Ana ward 2
Katie Brazer Acevez, SAUSD (only 40 votes behind)
OJ Candidates who have lost:
David Dodson, BoE
Kim Carr, SD 36
Mike Tardif, AD 68 (protest vote anyway)
Diedre Nguyen, AD 70
Judie Mancuso, AD 72
Sunny Park, Supe 4
Al Jabbar & Hari Lal, Anaheim Council
All our Santa Ana candidates (except maybe Ben)
All our HB candidates
Branda Lin, Irvine Mayor
Just keeping track…
TUESDAY UPDATE to the above comment: You see the heading “OJ Candidates who are behind but gaining?” Well I’m happy to say that three of those candidates have passed up their reactionary opponents:
Carlos Leon is now ahead of Gloria Ma’ae in Anaheim District 2;
Ben Vazquez is now ahead of Nelida Mendoza in Anaheim Ward 2;
and our old friend Katie Brazear Aceves has passed up Sylvia Iglesias in a pretty solid way. (Sylvia is the niece of Christian-conservative firebrand Ceci who has the “Mark of the Barke” … and we prefer Katie!)
Really not much to report on Monday evening, beyond the Last Election Denialist Governor Candidate Kari Lake losing in Arizona, which, let’s raise a glass to that.
In Anaheim District 2, Gloria’s lead over Carlos Leon continues to shrink: from 386 on Wednesday to 211 on Saturday to 171 now! We may yet see a Councilman Carlos by the time this is all over.
Similarly in Santa Ana Ward 2, progressive Ben Vazquez continues to chip away at the lead conservative Nelida Mendoza has over him, which has gone from 129 on Wednesday to 83 on Saturday to TWENTY-TWO VOTES now. We hope he keeps chugging, it’ll be a less awful council with our amigo Ben.
JAY VS MICHELLE, my most important race, now has 67% counted, so more votes came in for both of ’em, but the score is still 53.8% to 46.2%. I have to admit that – apart from how winning this race would help Dems nationally, and how bad Michelle is, and how good Jay is, I want to see this victory happen just to repudiate the dirty, racist, lying, red-baiting campaign the Steel camp waged. Make it never happen again. But it’s still unlikely…
Everything else is staying pretty much the same, I don’t think I’ll update this story or it’ll be too long and boring.
UPDATE Monday night – the AP has called this race for the fascist Steel – a tragedy that Greg or I should memorialize in prose.
The great unknown is how the ballots dropped off on Election Day is going to break. We know Republicans showed up at the polls 3 to 1 county wide. But would the day of election ballot drop off be the same? 55% of ballots dropped off at voting centers were counted yesterday, and they definitely skewed Republican. Katie Porter’s lead dropped from 5,337 to 2,891. So with 51,850 more of those to come, that’s not good. There are still 90,000 same day drop offs at ballot drop boxes. I’m hoping Republicans don’t like using those….
Yeah you’re right. A hopeless optimist, I was thinking since the first few waves of late votes were Dem, that all or most of em would be.
They are mostly people who filled out their mail-in ballots and turned em in at vote centers on Election Day – something I’ve been doing for years because I like being part of the whole hullaballoo. I was thinking these were people like me.
But no, apparently a lot of them are paranoid rightwingers who think the postman is part of an anti-Trump conspiracy.
Now we have to not only give up on some races I thought were hopeful, but worry about some races I thought were won.
Good points, David. I’ll have something out related to this later in the week.
I used to be able to just call Neal Kelley about what I mention below, but I don’t (at least yet) have that sort of relationship with Bob Page.
(1) See this map? https://ocvote.gov/results/current-election-results See the problem with the legend?
(2) I was having a hell of a time finding the ever-helpful “What’s Left to Count” page, because it wasn’t showing up on a site search for that phrase.
Well, it’s there — https://www.ocvote.gov/results/whats-left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count — but despite that URL the page is now entitled “What’s Left to Process”, which is probably why it doesn’t show up on a search involving the word “count”.
Dear good people at the Registrar of Voters Office: please fix this! Label it both ways for now, if you wish, but make a “what’s left to count” search work!
Here’s the full content of the “What’s Left to Process” page as of the time of this comment:
As a result, I think that — incredible as it may seem — Michelle Steel (up by 8%) is actually in a worse position than Katie Porter (up by 1.3%) at this point. The big media outlets perpetually get this wrong. If anyone wants to give me good odds (which I deserve because my claim is audacious) on whether Porter or Steel will come up with the better percentage of the vote in their races by the time this is over, let me know. I’ll put $20 on Porter. This opportunity is available only to one person who gives me the best odds (of at least $21); and this offer will close at 3:00 on Wednesday.
Methinks confidence re OCPA’s success by OCPA players is fading. Scheduled meeting cancelled today.
Julio Perez, Melahat rat and Farrahkhan sighting. FYI. Told you Julio was in the re-election campaign mix.
https://twitter.com/inminivanhell/status/1592593542031216640?cxt=HHwWgMDQhe_Yg5osAAAA
And, then, there is this.
https://www.ocpower.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Cancelation-OCPA-11-15-22.pdf
Hat tip Branda Lin.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02yfwmxUJ1RkaNcavfjzrPAoSNvFC798oHdWJfdpuYYMmR8gVgiKuaf45LFjFkPJcil&id=2255209708134300&m_entstream_source=timeline&__tn__=%2As%2As-R
WEDNESDAY UPDATE
OJ-backed candidates who have INCREASED THEIR LEADS FROM YESTERDAY:
Katrina Foley is declaring victory at 51%, 4600 votes over Pat Bates!
and she will have one good Democratic partner on the BoS:
Vince Sarmiento is now 2892 votes over Kim B Nguyen! That’s a lot in that district.
In Anaheim, Carlos continues to grow his lead over Gloria –
from 388 behind election day night (which excited Jubal) to 3 ahead last night to 42 now.
In AUHSD, Jessica keeps increasing her lead over Billie, and is now 804 votes ahead!
In Santa Ana, Ben Vazquez has increased his lead over Nelida to 64 votes.
In SAUSD, Katie Brazear Aceves has increased HER lead to 272.
Katie Porter still winning, at 51.37%. Mike Levin has declared victory, at 52.6%. And Kathleen Blakespear still winning at 52.2%. Sharon Quirk-Silva may as well declare victory, at 52.6%, as Ashleigh just did as Anaheim mayor, at 42.8% (over Trevor’s 34.6%.)
On the other hand, Jay Chen still losing at 46.8% which is a tiny bit of progress but nowhere near enough. And Chris Duncan still losing at 47.3%.