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Michael, Harley.
So the latest from the 48th Congressional District (Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa and Newport down to Laguna Beach) is this: Michael Kotick, the 3rd or 4th highest polling Democrat in the race to beat Dana Rohrabacher and Scott Baugh, has followed in the footsteps of Laura Oatman, dropped out of the race and backed Democratic frontrunner Harley Rouda, whose fundraising also dwarves that of the others.
Laura and Michael will remain on the ballot – it’s too late for them to get off – but they are asking their followers to work for and support Harley. There now remain three Democrats actively campaigning for themselves – DPOC insider choice scientist Hans Keirstead, Rachel Payne who emphasizes being a woman, and Omar Siddiqi who emphasizes being a minority. (We hope Rachel and Omar soon follow the honorable leads of Laura and Michael.)
Kotick (it’s like they’re all characters in a sitcom pilot) was the YOUNG GUY, who appealed to the MILLENNIALS with his youthful energy and progressive Bernie Sanders politics. We hope Michael is successful in getting these folks behind Harley, who’s looking increasingly like the only hope for change in my old home district. This comes the same day as Harley gets the coveted endorsement of California’s LaborFed. Increasingly we wonder what the DPOC was thinking when they went with the erratic Hans.
Anyways, here’s Michael’s video statement, click the link if it doesn’t show:
https://www.facebook.com/Kotick4Congress/videos/1462482967213958/
Harley Rouda first registered as a Democrat on 2/6/17 (a few weeks before launching his congressional campaign). Since that time, some people have become intoxicated by Harley’s public rhetoric (which has been crafted by his expensive consultants). It’s important to remember, however, that prior words and action matter just as much, if not more, than obligatory remarks on a campaign trail.
When it comes to Harley, his prior Democratic activity has been non-existent. His Republican track record, on the other hand, is far more robust. For example, he made a 4-digit donation to John Kasich’s presidential campaign in 2016, he voted in the Republican primary in 2008 (a year when Obama was on the ballot), he donated more than $9,000 to Republican candidates over the course of several years…the list goes on.
It is difficult to understand how a seemingly intelligent and informed person could not discover his true political identity until he was 55 years old. So, the question here is a relatively simple one: does Harley’s delayed understanding of modern American political parties reflect a sincere political epiphany, or naked maneuvering to suit an ambitious and opportunistic personal agenda? Either way, it is perfectly reasonable for Democrats to be critical of his bona fides.
Harley has been a registered NPP voter for 17 years. I have been an NPP for over 20 and just became a Democrat this year. I see no problem with this. He grew up in a Republican family and like many kids they follow their parents. He met his wife who influenced him to change parties and he did. He did it also because he didn’t align with the Republican Party values. I’ve talked to them both about this. He donated 1,000 to Kasich because they are family friends. His wife was in their wedding party. The other money was donated by Harley Sr., his dad. Please get your facts straight and stop stretching the truth.
With regard to the accusation that my facts are not straight and that I am stretching the truth…
Fact #1 that I offered was that Harley did not identify as a Democrat until last year (when he was 55 years old). His prior NPP status does not change this fact.
Fact #2 that I offered was that Harley donated to a Republican presidential candidate in 2016. Another commenter offered an excuse for Harley’s action (i.e., that Harley makes contributions to people he knows, even if their policy positions are objectionable–not a particularly compelling defense, by the way). However, the same commenter acknowledges that the underlying fact itself is true.
Fact #3 that I provided was that Harley voted in the Republican presidential primary in 2008 (a year when Obama was on the ballot). For those who like to independently corroborate information, feel free to directly contact the Franklin County (Ohio) Registrar of Voters to confirm. Like the others I supplied, this fact is true. I assume that is why the critical commenter was tellingly silent on this point.
Fact #4 that I provided about prior campaign contributions to Republicans was based on the following OC Register article: https://www.ocregister.com/2017/03/19/rohrabacher-challenger-harley-rouda-addresses-past-gop-affiliation/. If somebody believes that the reporting is inaccurate, I suggest that person contact the Register to seek a correction.
“Voted Republican in a Presidential Primary?”
Hey, I did that myself in 2012 – even switched Parties just so I could vote against Romney twice! (Ron Paul in Primary)
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2012/05/i-become-a-republican/
Then I stayed registered Republican for a couple of years just to fuck with people’s heads and get into certain events. A man after my own heart, this Harley!
I was told to “get [my] facts straight and stop stretching the truth,” so I just spent some time examining the FEC database. It is true that Harley Rouda Sr. made several donations to Republican politicians. There are also several donations made by “Harley Rouda” where no “Sr.” or “Jr.” is designated. However, there are several donations which were explicitly made by Harley Rouda Jr. to various Republican Congressmen and Senators from 1999-2009. So, either (a) the FEC information is incorrect, (b) somebody has committed identity fraud by improperly using Harley Rouda Jr.’s name, or (c) I am not the one who needs to get my facts straight.
DPOC does not itself endorse in Congressional races; CDP (the state rather than the county party) does. CDP in turn usually follows the recommendations of the endorsing caucuses, which is where Hans rolled up his massive vote. This speaks essentially to an ability to organize effectively with local party members, only a (sizable, but not always decisive) portion of which are also DPOC members.
As for Rouda having donated money to Kasich — that is impermissible by party rules, but those rules apply only to central committee members. Supporting Kasich over Trump now seems less like a sign of villainy than of precognition.
The fact that Rouda was a former Republican does not have much weight whatsoever here in District CA48. As someone noted, he was NPP for almost 20 years and this has been repeatedly. For those who think this is a detriment, I’m afraid you are mistaken.
I too was a Republican, until I registered NPP in 2008. I only just changed my voter registration as a Dem this year.
We’ve had several debates over the past 6 months…strongest candidate has been Rouda every time. Rouda has continued to receive the biggest endorsements, including Congressional Rep Lowenthal, Rep Correa, Rep Sanchez and Rep Aguilar. Rhis list goes on and on and his website has noted them.
Although Oatman and Kotick will still be present on ballot, Rouda’s team has tripled and the next logical step is people need to spread the word and VOTE Harley! I know I will!
He actually voted for Hillary in the primary and the election. He also donated to her campaign. Hans did not vote in any primaries and some elections.
One of the attacks the Keirstead people like to make against Harley is that he has supported some Republicans in the past, and has been independent. And that somehow this will hurt him in the general election.
Really, how does that work? How does that hurt him with the independents and moderate Republicans who will vote in November?
The FEC database does not show any donation from Mr. Rouda to Hillary. According to FEC records, Mr. Rouda did not begin donating to Democratic political candidates until after he launched his campaign in 2017. For example, he donated money to Lou Correa in 2017. He also donated $1000 to Rep. Linda Sanchez in February of 2018…a few weeks later, she endorsed him.
Mr. Rouda’s wife donated to Hillary in 2008 ($500) and 2016 (approximately $800). It seems inappropriate to give Mr. Rouda credit for the actions of his wife.
I admit to not being close to Party politics until my very life is at stake with villains in power. I am taken aback at how ugly the Party politics is. Here we have a guy with a great position on the issues and in a great position to win this seat, and we have this firing squad prepared to shoot him down because he wasn’t a member of the Party for long enough.
He, and many like him share the same values as many people in the Party and are prepared to fight hard for them. What does the Party do? Shoot us for not being Democrats long enough? Huh? Is this the Party of unity and inclusion? No wonder young people are registering NPP. This has to turn them off.
I see the Democratic Party as the way out of this, but I, for one, am going to get deep into it and see if we can make positive changes and make it more welcoming.
So…..could a Harley beat a Scott? Oatman was the cutest one in the race and she dropped out. OK, is Scott just Rabbit….to steal votes away from the Democrats? Who knows? But Harley is definitely a squishy DINO…..who actually might skate into office
based upon age and attitude more than anything else. Harley will have to take a strong
DACA Stand, a strong support for the 2nd Amendment, (based upon the current CA laws which already includes Comprehensive Background Checks). What he needs to do however is “say” that he supports Mental Impairment history, as part of those background checks. Katie Portman can beat Mimi – if she uses the same strategy. Mimi can say “Me Too” and everyone will know she is Lying like a rug! Dana is going South for the Winter…..and actually should do the right thing and just throw his support to Scott which may or may not insure a Republican Victory in the 48th. The National money however will flow in like a river for Harley, if he can continue the momentum and make it passed Primary. The Republican game is simple – have Dana run against Scott! Knowing that…..Scott will have to step up to the plate and actually answer for the Trumpster….standing for the ludicrous Tax Slam for the rich and the incredibly stupid American First Tariff Programs of the 1920 and 30’s! Gun Control, Parkland Kids, Me Too, Black Lives Matter…….would love to hear how Scott responds to those issues!
*Whatever, it will be entertaining and a National News story covered by every Cable Channel…..so Harley better start having Press Conferences now……to prepare.
I’m with Harley. Here’s why.
We have a top two winners take all primary. If we want to have Rohrabacher and Baugh as our only two choices in November, the best way to do that is to keep arguing with each other and/or to have Hans take away votes from Harley. This is because there are more Republicans registered to vote. Splitting the remaining Democratic votes between 2 or more candidates mathematically ensures that we will lose, and we will lose it in June! That’s it. So why vote for Harley? I won’t stoop to the level of attack displayed by “CA Voter,” whose writing style is instantly recognized by all who’ve seen it in comments on community pages.
The reason I’m with Harley is that he has the most momentum, thanks in part to all the recent endorsements and now the biggest support base. His well-reasoned and articulated positions on the issues* (see below) will resonate better than the other candidates in Orange County’s district 48. His past, rather than being a negative, actually ensures he will be able to build bridges among reasonable people instead of creating divisiveness, and this in Orange County is crucial. There are likely to be many GOP and NPP voters, disgusted with Rohrabacher’s attitude toward what’s been going on, who will find reasonable Harley’s solutions to problems created by the current administration and will cross the aisle. This is not the case with the other candidates who do not have Harley’s broad-based appeal.
Our biggest battle will be in June. We need to get at least one Democrat on the ballot, an uphill battle unless Dems register and vote in unprecedented numbers. That could happen, but meanwhile, let’s be realistic and count on putting our support behind an outstanding candidate and getting out the vote for him in June. The clock is ticking. The time to support Harley is now.
*For information on his stands on the issues of gun violence, the economy, education, the environment, foreign affairs, women’s issues, healthcare, LGBTQ, and immigration, see https://www.harleyforcongress.com/issues/
I appreciate the Harley supporters who don’t want to “stoop” to the level of my alleged “attack.” The problem with that righteousness is that their preferred candidate has already done the stooping. Harley is the one who instigated the intra-party friction by calling Democrats “corrupt” after failing to secure the CDP endorsement that he desperately coveted.
Moreover, he has personally criticized Keirstead’s political history. In fact, a Harley supporter has continued the same criticism in this comment thread. So, when Harley and/or his supporters criticize another candidate’s credibility on a given topic, it seems imminently reasonable to also criticize Harley’s credibility on that same topic (i.e., his prior political activity, or lack thereof). If a person finds that type of “attack” to be objectionable, he or she should ask Harley to make a public apology for his comments. Otherwise, there seems to be a hypocritical double-standard in effect.
Eminently. Not imminently.
*Harley seems to have the “Mo”, but then we have yet to hear him come out in a forum
situation…Does he have the “Juevos” to go at Dana and Scott openly? We will see.
I’m sure Harley or any Democrat would love to do that. You guys ask DANA if HE has the huevos to debate Harley or even Scott this year. He used to. I think he’s scared now.
Another description of this dilemma :
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/04/one-of-congress-most-unpopular-republicans-might-not-even-have-a-democratic-opponent-in-november/
There were things the party could have done to head this off. We didn’t. First and second on the list were “being a fair broker” and “providing candidates with high quality information about their relative standing. “Too expensive,” I was told. Well, how expensive will “Dana v. Baugh” be to us?
The entire 48th race has been appalling from the start and shame on the DCCC for fueling it and fostering such an embarrassing slate of candidates. And I’m a lifelong registered Democrat, but find it absolutely ludicrous that the party can’t even manage some standard due diligence. It knew darn well about Harley’s Republican past and the massive Republican ties that he still maintains. Are we really that desperate to get someone in the seat that we’re willing to elect anyone as long as they look the part and sound the part instead of actually being what they claim to be? Rouda knows his relationship with Kasich goes far deeper than just a friendly political donation. When Kasich announced his run for the presidency, he and his family weren’t the only ones on the stage in Ohio. Rouda and his wife were right there with them and proudly posted the photos all over social media, as well as photos of them out stumping with their dear friends. Of course, you can’t find any of those photos now, since Rouda deleted them as soon as he set out on his own run. But that alone should tell us everything we need to know about how democratic he really is. And if he’s willing to whitewash his Republican ties to get what he wants, what else would he hide, once he got in that seat? These are the questions that the voters and media should be asking, but thanks to the DCCC, we’re now left with another carefully crafted version of a candidate instead of the real one that we deserve. Rohrabacher needs to go and the faster, the better. But I’m personally tired of electing all these political posers simply because they know how to play the part. We already have a presidency that’s a charade, so why do we want that for own district? The DCCC knew that Harley’s father was the president of the National Association of Realtors, which is right up there with the NRA in GOP support and his sister the queen of GOP bankrolling in Texas. Why would I ever vote for anyone tied to that? And don’t think he isn’t. The majority of his companies are all offshoots of his father’s, and even though he keeps claiming to be a bonafide Democrat, anyone with even mild research skills could easily piece together what those companies really support. So shame on the media for not doing that and shame on the DCCC for thinking that after 30 years of the Rohrabacher charade, another one is the best we should have.
Paragraph breaks, Hans. As a scientist you should know that nobody’s gonna feel like sifting thru an undifferentiated mass of dubious verbiage like that.
The answers (from the Harley camp_
Thousands of activists across district 48 are working hard to flip this seat. Hans Keirstead’s reckless, misleading and selfish attacks are putting all of our work in danger. We need to be united to beat Dana Rohrabacher. I’m working hard to talk to Democrats about Harley’s vision to move Orange County forward and I think Hans Keirstead should stop the smears.
GOP Past:
Harley left the Republican party 21 years ago, he voted against George W Bush, voted for Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton and has donated thousands of dollars to Democratic candidates across Orange County.
Oil Investments:
All candidates are required by law to file a personal financial disclosure within 90 days of announcing they are running for Congress. Harley filed competely and on time last year and disclosed he was invested in an ETF that tracks the price of Crude Oil – this ETF has no holdings in oil companies or any company that is involved in the extraction, refinement or distribution of oil. Harley drives an electric car and his house runs on solar energy. Harley is the only candidate endorsed by the Sierra Club.
Lawsuit:
At the time of this lawsuit in 2006, Real Living employed approximately 4,000 people. During the economic downturn many companies reduced their size in order to survive. Ms. Spacekworked for a Cleveland subsidary and was not directly managed by Harley Rouda. Harley was not involved in Ms. Spacek’s dismissal from the company, as evidenced by the Judge issuing a Directed Verdict, immediately dismissing Harley Rouda from this lawsuit. Additionally, Harley was not aware of her medical history as such records are confidential.
A Message from Harley:
“Over the last 10 days the campaign in the 48th district has taken a negative turn. After being placed on the Red to Blue list by the DCCC, both the Keirstead and Baugh campaigns, and their allied dark money Super PACs, have sent negative, misleading and false attacks against me. Many of them outright lies. I understand that is politics as usual, and I was committed to ignoring it. On Wednesday night, I learned that Keirstead’s Super PAC announced it was spending another $100,000 on it’s smear campaign against me. My campaign team decided we could no longer ignore these negative attacks and was preparing a response of our own that demanded answers about Keirstead:
– Alleged violence against women and sexual relations with students and staff as reported by Mother Jones.
– Why he has 700 pages in his HR file with UCI and why are over 600 redacted.
– Did UCI use tax dollars to pay any settlements for alleged sexual or other misconduct.
– Why he calls himself a “Cancer Doc” but owns tobacco stocks.
– If he is a “life long Democrat” why he never voted in a Primary.
As I’ve said from day one – I can’t wait to throw punches at Dana Rohrabacher in November, but I never intended to throw punches via mainstream media at other Democrats. In fact, I took a pledge not to – and Keirstead did as well. When I woke up Thursday morning, I knew that in spite of advice to “go negative”, this was not what I wanted to do. I did not want to let down the thousands of activists and volunteers who have helped build this campaign. I wanted to knock doors, not Democrats. I told my campaign team to stop the wheels in motion and take down anything that might be up.
We have come this far together on a commitment to women’s issues, fighting climate change, Medicare for All, stopping gun violence, passionate immigration reform, and creating quality middle class jobs. And we will continue to do so.
Orange County Democrats want better. Orange County families deserve better. And our Country demands better.
I will continue to run a clean campaign focused on moving Orange County forward.”