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This is not the end.  A new post (from the ROV) will appear on Monday afternoon at 5.

Orange Juice Blog Election Coverage: all right, there’s less flavor in those last few drops, but we’re serving them anyway!

Headlines:

• LA County is done counting
• San Bernardino has another report coming on Monday
• San Diego has about 2,000 provisionals left to count — it’s unclear whether Monday will be their last report
• Orange County will have what seems like should be its final report on Monday — but, you know…
• Issa’s lead over Applegate is a miserable 1,742 — but that’s still a win
• Newman’s lead over Chang is just under 2,500 votes — 2,497, to be specific, or almost 50% more than Issa’s!
• Alvarez’s margin over Cano has fallen to 39 — out of 30,469 cast between them
• Martinez and Do — the margin is 645
• Anaheim District 1 — the margin is 291, stable as a spinning gyroscope
• Anaheim District 3 stable as well — the margin is 72, seemingly safely out of recount range, though with Disney money, who knows?
• Measure OO is losing by 8 again

BEFORE:

NOW:

At the last DPOC meeting, the Chair informed us that DPOC had warned Applegate that he had to focus more in Orange County (which has that 16,600 deficit up there, compared to Applegate’s 14,700 lead in San Diego County.)  DPOC did — through the kindness of Tom Steyer — do voter registration in San Juan Capistrano (though I’m not sure how much.)  Taking this race seriously would have involved also doing it — and GOTV — in Dana Point, RSM, and San Clemente as well.  Where would the money come from?  As I said long ago, if I were Sue Savary running against Dana Rohrabacher, I’d have considered “taking one for the team” and funneling money into the race to the South, which (with Applegate in office) might have made it easier for a Dem to take CA-48 in two years, the same way that Josh Newman’s victory in AD-29 will make it easier to see other successes in North County.

BEFORE:

NOW:

Dayyum, I spoke too soon.  Newman’s final margin is now likely to be over 2,500 votes.  I thought he was going to win, but I didn’t think he was going to win by that much.  What an accomplishment!

The sole remaining nail-biter between candidates.  This means that Cano will be back with more funding — though without Iglesias heading her “ticket” — in 2018.  This has presumably not escaped the notice of John Palacios and Valerie Amezcua, who have all the more motivation to address the odd appointment of Edmond T. Heatley.

645 votes.  Hard to know what to say to that.

The dynamics of this race were wild and wacky — but somehow it all worked out.  I think that it’s because Freddy Fitzgerald Carvajal’s supporters, who I think were probably numbered at least as much as those of Orlando Perez, decided that to stop Lodge they had to vote for Barnes, whom their own mailboxes were informing them was Lodge’s strongest competition.

There is very little in life that I love more than hearing Cunningham and Chumley say that Brandman did so well because Moreno clearly had this in the bag all along.  They should try reading their own archives sometime!

Will the actual proponents — in effect, I presume, the City itself — fund a recount?

OK, OK: ONE LAST LAST (simplified) (we presume) WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? while we still can.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 416,994 (was 416,694)

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 415,046 (was 416,842)

Total Estimated Left to Count: 152

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 98,806

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,778

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 28

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,300 (was 130,000)

Total provisionals counted: 130,219 (was 128,443)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 81 (was 1,557)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 146,674

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,631 (was 146,611)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 43 (was 63)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,014

Total election day paper ballots counted: 27,014

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

The page was updated late, but it was updated.  With 73 VBM ballots joining 81 provisionals (part of 300 of them newly added to the identified pile (which again should probably bear some comment, despite not seeming sinister to me) this is the least left-leaning batch we’ve had in a long time.  With 154 remaining, it’s not likely to make a difference even in the last remaining race between candidates we have — Alfonso Alvarez vs. Angie Cano in the SAUSD — even if they’re all from Santa Ana (which seems highly doubtful.)  But if the ROV’s office is still running a day late with its reports (which I also hope is highly doubtful), then we still have enough left to make a difference.  The issue here is not simply whether Cano can overtake Alvarez in this count, but whether it can be close enough to generate a recount.  Cano, much more than Alvarez, has the prospects of being able to get large (read “pro-charter”) interests to fund one.

As for Measure OO: the trend still suggests that it’s headed to a narrow defeat.  (The likely margin could lead to a recall by the trailing side — but I think that the “NO” side (led by hoteliers) has a much stronger reason to invest in that gamble than does the “YES” side.)  Monday afternoon, it should all be over except the recounting.\

For those people who don’t know that this logo belongs to Maxwell House coffee — that’s where it’s from.