2016’s Unsettled Races, Sat. Dec. 3 Results: Nearing That Last Drop!

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This is not the end.  A new post (from the ROV) will appear on Monday afternoon at 5.

Orange Juice Blog: better to skip those last few drops

Orange Juice Blog Election Coverage: all right, there’s less flavor in those last few drops, but we’re serving them anyway!

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 1,535,967
Precinct Registration 1,535,967
Precinct Ballots Cast 516,794 33.6%
Early Ballots Cast 27,554 1.8%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 695,022 45.2%
Total Ballots Cast 1,239,370 80.7%

Headlines:

  • LA County is done counting
  • San Bernardino has another report coming on Monday
  • San Diego has about 2,000 provisionals left to count — it’s unclear whether Monday will be their last report
  • Orange County will have what seems like should be its final report on Monday — but, you know…
  • Issa’s lead over Applegate is a miserable 1,742 — but that’s still a win
  • Newman’s lead over Chang is just under 2,500 votes — 2,497, to be specific, or almost 50% more than Issa’s!
  • Alvarez’s margin over Cano has fallen to 39 — out of 30,469 cast between them
  • Martinez and Do — the margin is 645
  • Anaheim District 1 — the margin is 291, stable as a spinning gyroscope
  • Anaheim District 3 stable as well — the margin is 72, seemingly safely out of recount range, though with Disney money, who knows?
  • Measure OO is losing by 8 again
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th District
Completed Precincts: 102 of 102
Vote Count Percentage
* DARRELL ISSA (REP) 47,672 60.5%
DOUG APPLEGATE (DEM) 31,100 39.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Issa 47,656 107,753 155,409 50.3147%
Applegate 31,093 122,372 153,465 49.6853%

NOW:

Issa 47,672 108,011 155,683 50.2976%
Applegate 31,100 122,741 153,841 49.7024%

At the last DPOC meeting, the Chair informed us that DPOC had warned Applegate that he had to focus more in Orange County (which has that 16,600 deficit up there, compared to Applegate’s 14,700 lead in San Diego County.)  DPOC did — through the kindness of Tom Steyer — do voter registration in San Juan Capistrano (though I’m not sure how much.)  Taking this race seriously would have involved also doing it — and GOTV — in Dana Point, RSM, and San Clemente as well.  Where would the money come from?  As I said long ago, if I were Sue Savary running against Dana Rohrabacher, I’d have considered “taking one for the team” and funneling money into the race to the South, which (with Applegate in office) might have made it easier for a Dem to take CA-48 in two years, the same way that Josh Newman’s victory in AD-29 will make it easier to see other successes in North County.

STATE SENATOR 29th District
Completed Precincts: 400 of 400
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 120,628 50.7%
LING LING CHANG (REP) 117,444 49.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Chang 117,441 15,578 24,709 157,728 49.6089%
Newman 120,615 13,236 26,364 160,215 50.3911%

NOW:

Chang 117,444 15,578 24,709 157,731 49.6073%
Newman 120,628 13,236 26,364 160,228 50.3927%

Dayyum, I spoke too soon.  Newman’s final margin is now likely to be over 2,500 votes.  I thought he was going to win, but I didn’t think he was going to win by that much.  What an accomplishment!

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 24,567 21.2%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 21,894 18.9%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 15,254 13.1%
ANGIE CANO 15,215 13.1%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 13,645 11.8%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 13,554 11.7%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 11,931 10.3%

The sole remaining nail-biter between candidates.  This means that Cano will be back with more funding — though without Iglesias heading her “ticket” — in 2018.  This has presumably not escaped the notice of John Palacios and Valerie Amezcua, who have all the more motivation to address the odd appointment of Edmond T. Heatley.

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 76,208 50.2%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 75,563 49.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

645 votes.  Hard to know what to say to that.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,646 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,355 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,858 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,901 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 810 6.1%
ANGEL VANSTARK 400 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 397 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

The dynamics of this race were wild and wacky — but somehow it all worked out.  I think that it’s because Freddy Fitzgerald Carvajal’s supporters, who I think were probably numbered at least as much as those of Orlando Perez, decided that to stop Lodge they had to vote for Barnes, whom their own mailboxes were informing them was Lodge’s strongest competition.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,647 36.0%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,575 35.4%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,908 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 976 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 817 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

There is very little in life that I love more than hearing Cunningham and Chumley say that Brandman did so well because Moreno clearly had this in the bag all along.  They should try reading their own archives sometime!

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 15,035 50.0%
No 15,043 50.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Will the actual proponents — in effect, I presume, the City itself — fund a recount?

OK, OK: ONE LAST LAST (simplified) (we presume) WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? while we still can.

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 416,994 (was 416,694)

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 415,046 (was 416,842)

Total Estimated Left to Count: 152

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 98,806

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,778

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 28

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,300 (was 130,000)

Total provisionals counted: 130,219 (was 128,443)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 81 (was 1,557)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 146,674

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,631 (was 146,611)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 43 (was 63)

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,014

Total election day paper ballots counted: 27,014

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

The page was updated late, but it was updated.  With 73 VBM ballots joining 81 provisionals (part of 300 of them newly added to the identified pile (which again should probably bear some comment, despite not seeming sinister to me) this is the least left-leaning batch we’ve had in a long time.  With 154 remaining, it’s not likely to make a difference even in the last remaining race between candidates we have — Alfonso Alvarez vs. Angie Cano in the SAUSD — even if they’re all from Santa Ana (which seems highly doubtful.)  But if the ROV’s office is still running a day late with its reports (which I also hope is highly doubtful), then we still have enough left to make a difference.  The issue here is not simply whether Cano can overtake Alvarez in this count, but whether it can be close enough to generate a recount.  Cano, much more than Alvarez, has the prospects of being able to get large (read “pro-charter”) interests to fund one.

As for Measure OO: the trend still suggests that it’s headed to a narrow defeat.  (The likely margin could lead to a recall by the trailing side — but I think that the “NO” side (led by hoteliers) has a much stronger reason to invest in that gamble than does the “YES” side.)  Monday afternoon, it should all be over except the recounting.\

For those people who don’t know that this logo belongs to Maxwell House coffee — that’s where it’s from.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)