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“BONK!” go the Applegate Bonkers.

Headlines:

• Issa gains 100 to Applegate’s 80 in OC; Applegate gains 36 overall
• Newman’s lead expands from 2,836 to 3,083 in OC, (others not yet reviewed) 1,766 overall
• After days of gaining, Cano’s SAUSD deficit increases from 64 to 70
• Martinez gains only 8 votes on 464 counted; margin falls from 669 to 661
• Barnes leads by 289 on 25 counted (note: reported 3,000 vote lead was off by an order of magnitude)
• Moreno expands lead from 53 to 66 votes on 88 counted
• Measure OO lead drops from 22 to 17 on 55 counted

Applegate climbs to under 2,400 –but unless San Diego has a lot of ballots uncounted and avoided all but 750 or so today, this one is over.

Newman is now up by 2,136 across the 3 counties.  Chang gained 11 votes in San Berdoo; Newman gained 628 to Chang’s 377 in OC (a net gain of 251), and Newman gained 818 to Chang’s 688 in LA.  The only uncertainty here has been whether there’s some vast cache of Asian votes for Chang still uncounted; it’s starting to look like not only isn’t there one, but that it wouldn’t make a difference if there was.  Newman would love to win the entire race by at least 1%, I expect — and that’s more likely than a Chang comeback.

Alvarez gains by 41 to 35 today.  The huge flow of votes seems to be abating …

… and its other big victim is Martinez.  She gains 231 to Do’s 223 — and that’s not going to get her what she needs.  It seems unlikely that the ROV would have neglected Santa Ana to focus on other races; if the rest of the district is what remains Martinez doesn’t have a lot of hope to get that last 661.

Barnes has had essentially the same 2.2% lead over Lodge since November 16.  The only question is whether she will exceed 300.

Moreno’s lead climbs from 53 to 66, but the story is how many votes are being added.  Today it was 88, which is up a fair bit from the past few days.  But the higher flow is not helping Brandman.

If you’re a numbers geek, this race is lots of fun.  In the last two weeks, the lead for “YES” has ranged like this:

286, 292, 282, 320, 113, 40, 37, 28, 22, and now 17.

New votes counted in the past four reports have been 177, 23, 22 — and now 55.

Are they just now getting into a more pro-tax group, as we might imagine provisionals to be?

This is what passes for fun among stats geeks: watching those trend lines and seeing where they cross!

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT will appear later, after the DPOC meeting.

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 28, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 130,000 in Saturday’s report)

Total provisionals counted: 95,320 (had been 85,685 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 34,680 (had been 44,315 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 145,374 (had been 145,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 145,283 (had been 144,547 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 91 (had been 91 in Saturday’s report)  UNCHANGED

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 27,000)

Total election day paper ballots counted: unchanged  (had been 26,944)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: unchanged (had been 56)   UNCHANGED

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Saturday’s report) 

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0 (had been 0 in Saturday’s report)

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 34,919  ballots remain to be counted = 

92 early VBMs + 91 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
56 paper ballots + 34,680 provisional ballots

AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!

? [unclear due to added ballots] early VBMs + 0 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
0 paper ballots + 9,635 provisional ballots

So, in other words:

• OVER 75?% PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY
• OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, 239 ARE NOT PROVISIONALS AND 34,680 ARE PROVISIONALS
• THE PROPORTION OF  PROVISIONALS IN THE REMAINING DAYS WILL KEEP RISING
• IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THREE-TO-FOUR DAYS LEFT OF COUNTING (WITH ABOUT 10,000 PROVISIONALS PER DAY) PRIOR TO THE MANDATORY 1% CANVAS OF BALLOTS, BUT IF THEY START SENDING HOME SOME OF THE TEMPORARY STAFF THEN IT MAY TAKE LONGER.  OR IT COULD BE SHORTER, BECAUSE NEAL KELLEY CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE!
• I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE THOSE EXTRA 1,900 BALLOTS IN THE “TOTAL TO BE COUNTED” FIGURE CAME FROM, BUT THEY MAY BE ACCOUNTED FOR TOMORROW, JUST AS THE 3,000 EXTRA BALLOTS DISCOVERED IN SATURDAY’S TOTAL RESULTS WERE FINALLY REFLECTED IN THE INCREASED TOTAL OF “EARLY VBM” BALLOTS TODAY.  AND YES THAT’S DISTURBING, AND YET BELATEDLY FINDING A BOX OF BALLOTS THAT HAD NOT BEEN PROPERLY ACCOUNTED FOR SEEMS TO HAPPEN REGULARLY, AND NOT JUST IN ORANGE COUNTY.  IT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN ANYTHING SINISTER SO LONG AS THEY’RE PEOPLE WHO VOTED BUT HAD NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRIOR COUNT.  IT’S CERTAINLY JARRING, THOUGH.