2016’s Unsettled Races, Mon. Nov. 28 Results: Martinez and Cano Stalled; Newman and Issa Called

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BONK!

“BONK!” go the Applegate Bonkers.

Headlines:

  • Issa gains 100 to Applegate’s 80 in OC; Applegate gains 36 overall
  • Newman’s lead expands from 2,836 to 3,083 in OC, (others not yet reviewed) 1,766 overall
  • After days of gaining, Cano’s SAUSD deficit increases from 64 to 70
  • Martinez gains only 8 votes on 464 counted; margin falls from 669 to 661
  • Barnes leads by 289 on 25 counted (note: reported 3,000 vote lead was off by an order of magnitude)
  • Moreno expands lead from 53 to 66 votes on 88 counted
  • Measure OO lead drops from 22 to 17 on 55 counted

 

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th District
Completed Precincts: 102 of 102
Vote Count Percentage
* DARRELL ISSA (REP) 47,545 60.5%
DOUG APPLEGATE (DEM) 31,032 39.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Issa 47,545 106,888 154,433 50.3896%
Applegate 31,032 121,013 152,045 49.6104%

Applegate climbs to under 2,400 –but unless San Diego has a lot of ballots uncounted and avoided all but 750 or so today, this one is over.

STATE SENATOR 29th District
Completed Precincts: 400 of 400
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 120,314 50.6%
LING LING CHANG (REP) 117,227 49.4%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Chang 117,227 15,510 23,917 156,654 49.6614%
Newman 120,314 13,155 25,321 158,790 50.3386%

Newman is now up by 2,136 across the 3 counties.  Chang gained 11 votes in San Berdoo; Newman gained 628 to Chang’s 377 in OC (a net gain of 251), and Newman gained 818 to Chang’s 688 in LA.  The only uncertainty here has been whether there’s some vast cache of Asian votes for Chang still uncounted; it’s starting to look like not only isn’t there one, but that it wouldn’t make a difference if there was.  Newman would love to win the entire race by at least 1%, I expect — and that’s more likely than a Chang comeback.

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 24,479 21.2%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 21,790 18.9%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 15,208 13.2%
ANGIE CANO 15,138 13.1%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 13,594 11.8%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 13,483 11.7%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 11,876 10.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Alvarez gains by 41 to 35 today.  The huge flow of votes seems to be abating …

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 76,047 50.2%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 75,386 49.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

… and its other big victim is Martinez.  She gains 231 to Do’s 223 — and that’s not going to get her what she needs.  It seems unlikely that the ROV would have neglected Santa Ana to focus on other races; if the rest of the district is what remains Martinez doesn’t have a lot of hope to get that last 661.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,635 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,346 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,848 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,895 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 807 6.1%
ANGEL VANSTARK 399 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 397 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Barnes has had essentially the same 2.2% lead over Lodge since November 16.  The only question is whether she will exceed 300.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,622 35.9%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,556 35.4%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,899 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 973 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 812 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Moreno’s lead climbs from 53 to 66, but the story is how many votes are being added.  Today it was 88, which is up a fair bit from the past few days.  But the higher flow is not helping Brandman.

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 15,014 50.0%
No 14,997 50.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

If you’re a numbers geek, this race is lots of fun.  In the last two weeks, the lead for “YES” has ranged like this:

286, 292, 282, 320, 113, 40, 37, 28, 22, and now 17.

New votes counted in the past four reports have been 177, 23, 22 — and now 55.

Are they just now getting into a more pro-tax group, as we might imagine provisionals to be?

This is what passes for fun among stats geeks: watching those trend lines and seeing where they cross!

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT will appear later, after the DPOC meeting.

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 28, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 415,380 (had been 413,480 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 380,461 (had been 369,002 in Saturday’s report)

Total Estimated Left to Count: 34,919 (had been 44,478 in Saturday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 98,806 (had been 95,806 in Saturday’s report)

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,714 (had been 95,890)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 92 (had been 16)

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 130,000 in Saturday’s report)

Total provisionals counted: 95,320 (had been 85,685 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 34,680 (had been 44,315 in Saturday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 145,374 (had been 145,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 145,283 (had been 144,547 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 91 (had been 91 in Saturday’s report)  UNCHANGED

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 27,000)

Total election day paper ballots counted: unchanged  (had been 26,944)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: unchanged (had been 56)   UNCHANGED

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Saturday’s report) 

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Saturday’s report)

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0 (had been 0 in Saturday’s report)

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 34,919  ballots remain to be counted

92 early VBMs + 91 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
56 paper ballots + 34,680 provisional ballots

AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!

? [unclear due to added ballots] early VBMs + 0 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
0 paper ballots + 9,635 provisional ballots

So, in other words:

  • OVER 75?% PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY
  • OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, 239 ARE NOT PROVISIONALS AND 34,680 ARE PROVISIONALS
  • THE PROPORTION OF  PROVISIONALS IN THE REMAINING DAYS WILL KEEP RISING
  • IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THREE-TO-FOUR DAYS LEFT OF COUNTING (WITH ABOUT 10,000 PROVISIONALS PER DAY) PRIOR TO THE MANDATORY 1% CANVAS OF BALLOTS, BUT IF THEY START SENDING HOME SOME OF THE TEMPORARY STAFF THEN IT MAY TAKE LONGER.  OR IT COULD BE SHORTER, BECAUSE NEAL KELLEY CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE!
  • I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE THOSE EXTRA 1,900 BALLOTS IN THE “TOTAL TO BE COUNTED” FIGURE CAME FROM, BUT THEY MAY BE ACCOUNTED FOR TOMORROW, JUST AS THE 3,000 EXTRA BALLOTS DISCOVERED IN SATURDAY’S TOTAL RESULTS WERE FINALLY REFLECTED IN THE INCREASED TOTAL OF “EARLY VBM” BALLOTS TODAY.  AND YES THAT’S DISTURBING, AND YET BELATEDLY FINDING A BOX OF BALLOTS THAT HAD NOT BEEN PROPERLY ACCOUNTED FOR SEEMS TO HAPPEN REGULARLY, AND NOT JUST IN ORANGE COUNTY.  IT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN ANYTHING SINISTER SO LONG AS THEY’RE PEOPLE WHO VOTED BUT HAD NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRIOR COUNT.  IT’S CERTAINLY JARRING, THOUGH.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)