D’ohh! Andrew Do Up by 239 (0.5%) Over Correa After the First Day of Post Election Counting

Correa DO'H!

So far … not as expected!

Well … this wasn’t supposed to happen!  After the first day of counting late absentees and such, Andrew Do’s lead over Lou Correa has climbed from a modest 2 — “Do by Dos,” get it? — to a not particularly funny 239.

County Supervisor First District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 101 of 101
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 18,230 39.3%
LOU CORREA 17,991 38.8%
CHRIS PHAN 7,592 16.4%


We’d better start keeping track of the other statistics as well:

Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 215,503
Precinct Registration 215,503
Precinct Ballots Cast 6,367 3.0%
Early Ballots Cast 0 0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast 40,316 18.7%
Total Ballots Cast 46,683 21.7%

Time to visit the “What’s Left to Count?” pages on the OCROV site!

Here’s the total counted and known to be remaining after Election Day:

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 6817

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 4916

Total estimated number of ballots left to count: 1901

Looking at the individual categories shows that this does NOT include later-arriving Vote By Mail ballots, perhaps because under a law authored by a fellow named Lou Correa they have 72 hours to arrive.  (I’m wondering whether Neal Kelley will have people stay late on Friday night, open on Saturday, or wait until Monday.)  This category currently contains as-yet-uncounted 562 ballots.

Where did Do get his edge, then?

A little bit of it may have been from paper ballots:  141 were turned in, 136 counted, meaning 5 left.

Was it provisional ballots?  No — none of the 1264 provisionals present have yet been counted.

That leaves one source: absentee ballots returned at the polls.  (This is different from “surrendered ballots” that convert into physical day-of-election voters.  Think of it as “people who want to save on a stamp.”  Under “Lou’s Law,” there’s really no longer a reason to do this unless one fears one’s ballot getting lost in the mail.)  And here, we hit the jackpot for Do:

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 4850

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 4780

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 70

Correa, if standard rules of thumb apply — and they often don’t, once one enters Little Saigon — should get a disproportionate number of the provisionals.  But those later (and now “even-later”) absentees would probably be pretty similar to those turned in at the polls — the group that just put Do ahead.

If all of the provisionals count, I’d still think that things look good for Correa.  But … chances are good that they won’t.  And this time, if the provisionals were to be what put Correa over the top, I would absolutely expect to see ballot challenges from Do — and perhaps a court challenge as well.  I would expect tomorrow to be mostly a provisionals day, as they allow the mail-in-votes to continue to roll in and build that 562-ballot figure into something larger.

About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)