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Tso photo credit to the Register; Moore’s is from her website.
As Orange Juice Blog seems to have become Orange County’s newspaper of record on close races, given that no one else seems to be covering them quite this closely, we begin with a real squeaker. Rae Tso now leads Carol Moore by only one vote, 2,852 to 2,851, for the second seat on the Laguna Woods City Council — but that is not why you probably clicked on this post. It simply bears note, given our weighty responsibility. OJB has remained neutral in this race, but we are still waiting for a fuller explanation of the 2009 “water bottle incident.” We’re also, frankly, not fans of chunky costume jewelry, but we’re willing to put that aside.
Here are the numbers for the today’s ballot count:
New provisionals counted: 6618 (26,046 remain.)
New VBMRAPs counted: 3,029 (2,356 remain.)
New paper ballots counted: 200 (342 remain.)
Now let’s get to the fun stuff.
Progressive hopefuls Nguyen, Humphrey, Fox — and a community college bond for Veterans.
The tight races we’re following in Garden Grove, Costa Mesa, and Irvine all got tighter today — in a day that looks like it may not have had a full crew of counters — but none have as yet reversed their outcome. In all three races, the trailing candidate made up about 1/3 of their deficit with about 1/3 of the provisionals left to count. That means that, if there’s two days left of counting, the best estimate of the expected result for all three races would be very close to a tie. (If you’re toying with us, Neal Kelley, you can stop now!) In actuality, though, until now a smaller proportion has been provisionals than we’ll see in the days ahead, which bodes slightly better than that for Bao Nguyen, Jay Humphrey, and Melissa Fox, who are pictured above. But each of the races could still go either way, depending on what precincts have and have not already have their provisionals counted.
Let’s get right to the races. For each candidate, you’ll see today’s raw vote total, plus that candidate’s percentage of today’s haul in parenthesis.
Garden Grove
Yesterday, Bruce Broadwater led by 38.
| CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Mayor |
| Completed Precincts: 87 of 87 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * BRUCE ALLAN BROADWATER | 11,120 | 42.6% |
| BAO NGUYEN | 11,082 | 42.4% |
| ALBERT AYALA | 3,908 | 15.0% |
Today, Broadwater leads by 26.
| CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Mayor |
| Completed Precincts: 87 of 87 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * BRUCE ALLAN BROADWATER | 11,622 | 42.4% |
| BAO NGUYEN | 11,596 | 42.3% |
| ALBERT AYALA | 4,184 | 15.3% |
Another 1,292 votes were counted. Broadwater picked up 502 votes (38.9%), Bao picked up 514 (39.8%), and Ayala picked up an unusually high (for him) 276 (21.4%). That last number probably shows that we’re into provisionals and/or paper ballots here.
Costa Mesa
Yesterday, Jim Righeimer led by 35.
| CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 70 of 70 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| KATRINA FOLEY | 8,933 | 26.5% |
| * JIM RIGHEIMER | 7,218 | 21.4% |
| JAY HUMPHREY | 7,183 | 21.3% |
| LEE RAMOS | 5,071 | 15.0% |
| TONY CAPITELLI | 1,766 | 5.2% |
| AL MELONE | 1,390 | 4.1% |
| RITA LOUISE SIMPSON | 1,135 | 3.4% |
| CHRISTOPHER SCOTT BUNYAN | 1,037 | 3.1% |
Today, Righeimer leads by 21.
| CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 70 of 70 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| KATRINA FOLEY | 9,252 | 26.5% |
| * JIM RIGHEIMER | 7,432 | 21.3% |
| JAY HUMPHREY | 7,411 | 21.2% |
| LEE RAMOS | 5,249 | 15.0% |
| TONY CAPITELLI | 1,839 | 5.3% |
| AL MELONE | 1,459 | 4.2% |
| RITA LOUISE SIMPSON | 1,179 | 3.4% |
| CHRISTOPHER SCOTT BUNYAN | 1,098 | 3.1% |
Another 1,186 votes were counted. Foley picked up 319 (26.9%). Righeimer picked up 214 (18.0%). Humphrey picked up 228 (19.2%). Ramos picked up 178 (). Capitelli picked up 73 (15.0%). Melone picked up 69 (5.8%). Simpson picked up 44 (3.7%). Bunyan picked up 61 (5.1%). That bump for Bunyan suggests that we’re into provisionals.
Irvine
Yesterday Fox trailed Lynn Schott by 331.
| CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 109 of 109 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * JEFFREY LALLOWAY | 16,078 | 22.9% |
| LYNN SCHOTT | 16,072 | 22.9% |
| MELISSA FOX | 15,741 | 22.4% |
| * LARRY AGRAN | 13,722 | 19.6% |
| EVAN CHEMERS | 8,571 | 12.2% |
Today, Fox trails Jeff Lalloway by 223.
| CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 109 of 109 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| LYNN SCHOTT | 16,610 | 22.9% |
| * JEFFREY LALLOWAY | 16,556 | 22.8% |
| MELISSA FOX | 16,333 | 22.5% |
| * LARRY AGRAN | 14,238 | 19.6% |
| EVAN CHEMERS | 8,865 | 12.2% |
Another 2,418 votes were counted. Schott picked up 538 (22.2%). Lalloway picked up 478 (19.8%). Fox picked up 592 (24.5%). Agran picked up 516 (21.3%). Chemers picked up 294 (12.1%). The improved performance of Fox and Agran and the worse performance of Lalloway suggests that we’re into provisionals.
Measure J
Yesterday, the Measure J bond (which needs 55% to pass) was behind this much:
| J-North Orange County Community College District, Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure |
| Completed Precincts: 522 of 522 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Bonds – Yes | 78,083 | 54.7% |
| Bonds – No | 64,565 | 45.3% |
Today, it’s down by 1/3 of that:
| J-North Orange County Community College District, Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure |
| Completed Precincts: 522 of 522 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Bonds – Yes | 79,049 | 54.8% |
| Bonds – No | 65,119 | 45.2% |
Another 1520 votes were counted. The Yes side added 966 votes (63.55%). The No side added 554 votes (36.45%). Provisionals are more likely to be renters who want the services and are less worried about being on the hook for payments in the long-term, which may explain the almost 9-point jump. As this is so close, I’ll calculate the figure to three decimal places: the actual lead is 54.831%. One more day like today would mean 80,015 to 65,673 — a margin of 54.922%. Two more days would mean a narrow victory.
So, in this race too, the losing side made up about 1/3 of the margin. What are the odds of that happening in all 4 primary undecided races! The big question now is: when do each of these municipalities run out of provisionals — and will the provisionals that have been counted survive a not-unlikely court challenge?
Others
Some other close races so still exist, but in none of them (except maybe Dana Point and Measure N) does the challenger seem likely to catch up due to provisional ballots. For the record, though, you could keep an eye on:
- Art Montez by 123 (0.7%) over Kevin Sequeira in Centralia School District
- Jim Cunneen by 88 (0.3%) over Gary Stine in Fountain Valley School District
- Cynthia Aguirre by 132 (0.9%) over Kevin Jacobson in La Habra City School District
- James Vanderbilt by 263 (0.4%) over Gail Eastman for Anaheim City Council
- Joe Muller by 61 (0.2%) over Jodi Payne for Dana Point City Council
- Measure N (Anaheim Utility Tax) No by 289 over Yes (down from 341 yesterday)
- Satoru Tamaribuchi by 1,339 (2.2%) over Execrable Dave Ellis for Municipal Water District of Orange County, Seat 5
That last one isn’t really a close race; we just like rubbing it in.
A capital bond for “veterans?” Really? Could it be that the NOCCCD was just using veterans as a political ploy to raise themselves some dough?
That would be real cynical. Just like a state proposition lowering the approval requirement for education bonds to 55%.
It seems to be the season for using vets. Hell, the educrats and teachers union have been using little kids for decades.
I’m just reporting how they presented it. As I recall, it did involve new initiatives from Vets, so I don’t think it’s simply shunting money into the general fund to spend more on what they’ve been doing. (It may be doing some of that, but not entirely.)
I’m not sure why either the pitch or the lowering of the proportion is “cynical.” I’m not a fan of all education bonds — it depends on the Board and the purpose — but I find NOCCCD to be well-run and the needs they address to be real.
The initiative set the bar at 55% – right at the bottom of typical bond “yes” votes, lowering it from two-thirds – a level that actually made it challenging if not difficult to pass. The 55% is generally pretty easy for the educrats to get over.
It is cynical to use veterans to further a bond that will build or upgrade more facilities, some of which, no doubt will be used by some vets, or vet related programs. But education and training are core general functions and shouldn’t be co-mingled with capital accounts.
The NOCCCD is not well-run and its board is little more than a rubber stamp. The examples of waste, large and small in this district are quite remarkable (I am very good friends with someone who worked in their accounts payable department a few years ago).
Now that they have adopted district elections I have a small hope that representation will get better and the incumbents won’t just waltz back into office.
Someday I would like to have a discussion on the entire community college topic including the cheapness of the credits and the laughable no-fault class dropping habits of so many of the students. There is undoubtedly a need being served; there is also a tremendous amount of boondogglery and counter-productive stuff going on, top to bottom.
its getting closer we may see an upset or two or three?