John Perez Climbs Barely Ahead of Betty Yee! OJB Predicted This — and Predicts That It Won’t Last!

By
Greg Diamond
– June 13, 2014Posted in: Fresh Juice

“John Perez pulls ahead of Betty Yee in the race for Controller!” That’s what headlines will scream this weekend, as Perez’ has come from behind to now hold a 322-vote margin over Yee, 852,243 to 851,921.  OJB readers knew that something like this was likely coming — check the later updates — because small counties (most notably Perez-dominated Imperial) had already finished their counts but either apparently not reported those post-Election Night results to the Secretary of State’s office or the Secretary of State had failed to update their numbers.

So how did this happen?  Take a look at the county-by-county figures from Thursday evening — and by “take a look,” I mean that you’ll probably want to skip by this for now and then refer back to it — sparingly.

County Name Total Precincts Precincts
Partially Rpt’g See FAQS for additional information on how precincts reporting information is determined.		 % Reporting Registered
Voters		 Ballots Cast % Turnout First
Report
Date-Time		 Last
Report
Date-Time		 Report Type Jump to the Report Type definitions
Alameda Opens New Window 1,119 1,119 100.0% 803,728 202,589 25.2% Jun 3
8:53 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:33 p.m.		 CCU
Alpine Opens New Window 5 5 100.0% 766 533 69.6% Jun 3
9:53 p.m.		 Jun 9
4:33 p.m.		 CCU
Amador Opens New Window 59 59 100.0% 21,200 8,239 38.9% Jun 3
9:15 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:25 p.m.		 FENU
Butte Opens New Window 141 141 100.0% 119,081 40,731 34.2% Jun 3
8:47 p.m.		 Jun 10
12:26 p.m.		 CCU
Calaveras Opens New Window 30 30 100.0% 27,263 10,493 38.5% Jun 3
8:58 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:31 p.m.		 FENU
Colusa Opens New Window 18 18 100.0% 7,653 3,608 47.1% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 5
4:10 p.m.		 CCU
Contra Costa Opens New Window 650 650 100.0% 528,162 142,414 27.0% Jun 3
8:07 p.m.		 Jun 6
4:46 p.m.		 CCU
Del Norte Opens New Window 18 18 100.0% 12,398 5,950 48.0% Jun 3
8:32 p.m.		 Jun 11
5:13 p.m.		 CCU
El Dorado Opens New Window 95 95 100.0% 106,944 42,095 39.4% Jun 3
8:38 p.m.		 Jun 6
9:23 a.m.		 CCU
Fresno Opens New Window 447 447 100.0% 412,181 103,722 25.2% Jun 3
8:15 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:00 p.m.		 CCU
Glenn Opens New Window 34 34 100.0% 11,978 5,647 47.1% Jun 3
9:26 p.m.		 Jun 4
2:03 p.m.		 CCU
Humboldt Opens New Window 103 103 100.0% 75,411 22,535 29.9% Jun 3
8:48 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:32 a.m.		 FENU
Imperial Opens New Window 159 159 100.0% 58,197 12,278 21.1% Jun 3
9:16 p.m.		 Jun 4
1:14 a.m.		 FENU
Inyo Opens New Window 21 21 100.0% 9,509 3,916 41.2% Jun 3
8:48 p.m.		 Jun 9
5:24 p.m.		 CCU
Kern Opens New Window 444 444 100.0% 334,435 61,292 18.3% Jun 3
8:29 p.m.		 Jun 6
4:57 p.m.		 CCU
Kings Opens New Window 166 166 100.0% 47,420 14,883 31.4% Jun 3
9:04 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:42 a.m.		 CCU
Lake Opens New Window 70 70 100.0% 33,987 9,703 28.5% Jun 3
8:59 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:55 a.m.		 FENU
Lassen Opens New Window 54 54 100.0% 13,433 5,873 43.7% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
6:19 a.m.		 CCC
Los Angeles Opens New Window 4,870 4,870 100.0% 4,857,424 770,185 15.9% Jun 3
8:06 p.m.		 Jun 10
3:59 p.m.		 CCU
Madera Opens New Window 76 76 100.0% 52,817 15,719 29.8% Jun 3
8:00 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:40 p.m.		 FENU
Marin Opens New Window 157 157 100.0% 148,762 54,807 36.8% Jun 3
8:07 p.m.		 Jun 6
4:12 p.m.		 CCU
Mariposa Opens New Window 25 25 100.0% 10,574 4,907 46.4% Jun 3
10:10 p.m.		 Jun 9
2:40 p.m.		 CCU
Mendocino Opens New Window 249 249 100.0% 47,400 8,669 18.3% Jun 3
8:47 p.m.		 Jun 4
1:29 a.m.		 FENU
Merced Opens New Window 126 126 100.0% 94,779 23,819 25.1% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
2:12 p.m.		 CCU
Modoc Opens New Window 21 21 100.0% 5,454 2,896 53.1% Jun 3
9:57 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:08 a.m.		 FENU
Mono Opens New Window 13 13 100.0% 5,802 3,210 55.3% Jun 3
9:06 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:29 p.m.		 CCU
Monterey Opens New Window 194 194 100.0% 164,032 47,117 28.7% Jun 3
9:19 p.m.		 Jun 6
2:52 p.m.		 CCU
Napa Opens New Window 165 165 100.0% 71,241 27,445 38.5% Jun 3
7:59 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:44 p.m.		 CCU
Nevada Opens New Window 71 71 100.0% 61,711 26,068 42.2% Jun 3
8:49 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:17 p.m.		 CCU
Orange Opens New Window 1,856 1,856 100.0% 1,411,232 339,510 24.1% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 11
5:01 p.m.		 CCU
Placer Opens New Window 301 301 100.0% 200,829 47,986 23.9% Jun 3
9:14 p.m.		 Jun 4
2:06 a.m.		 FENU
Plumas Opens New Window 29 29 100.0% 12,030 5,225 43.4% Jun 3
8:21 p.m.		 Jun 10
2:16 p.m.		 CCU
Riverside Opens New Window 847 847 100.0% 887,643 197,263 22.2% Jun 3
8:19 p.m.		 Jun 11
5:35 p.m.		 CCU
Sacramento Opens New Window 1,102 1,102 100.0% 688,443 194,609 28.3% Jun 3
8:09 p.m.		 Jun 11
1:57 p.m.		 CCU
San Benito Opens New Window 35 35 100.0% 23,778 7,573 31.8% Jun 3
8:50 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:19 p.m.		 CCU
San Bernardino Opens New Window 1,662 1,662 100.0% 851,326 157,067 18.4% Jun 3
8:26 p.m.		 Jun 6
4:19 p.m.		 CCU
San Diego Opens New Window 1,616 1,616 100.0% 1,544,841 416,807 27.0% Jun 3
7:59 p.m.		 Jun 10
3:43 p.m.		 CCU
San Francisco Opens New Window 597 597 100.0% 434,922 129,373 29.7% Jun 3
8:02 p.m.		 Jun 10
4:12 p.m.		 CCU
San Joaquin Opens New Window 501 501 100.0% 293,837 50,394 17.2% Jun 3
8:47 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:15 a.m.		 FENU
San Luis Obispo Opens New Window 151 151 100.0% 150,302 62,310 41.5% Jun 3
9:00 p.m.		 Jun 11
2:24 p.m.		 CCU
San Mateo Opens New Window 475 475 100.0% 354,994 97,443 27.4% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:30 p.m.		 CCU
Santa Barbara Opens New Window 200 200 100.0% 193,900 71,464 36.9% Jun 3
8:09 p.m.		 Jun 6
3:30 p.m.		 CCU
Santa Clara Opens New Window 1,026 1,026 100.0% 805,922 255,722 31.7% Jun 3
8:22 p.m.		 Jun 9
5:45 p.m.		 CCU
Santa Cruz Opens New Window 200 200 100.0% 141,105 42,042 29.8% Jun 3
8:27 p.m.		 Jun 11
9:04 a.m.		 CCU
Shasta Opens New Window 122 122 100.0% 98,772 28,744 29.1% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 9
4:18 p.m.		 CCU
Sierra Opens New Window 22 22 100.0% 2,209 1,413 64.0% Jun 3
8:44 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:09 a.m.		 FENU
Siskiyou Opens New Window 57 57 100.0% 24,833 11,504 46.3% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 10
10:05 a.m.		 CCU
Solano Opens New Window 174 174 100.0% 201,728 53,298 26.4% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 6
4:58 p.m.		 CCU
Sonoma Opens New Window 366 366 100.0% 241,005 72,542 30.1% Jun 3
8:18 p.m.		 Jun 4
1:53 a.m.		 FENU
Stanislaus Opens New Window 357 357 100.0% 211,330 54,898 26.0% Jun 3
8:00 p.m.		 Jun 6
10:29 a.m.		 CCU
Sutter Opens New Window 53 53 100.0% 42,218 9,560 22.6% Jun 3
8:27 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:59 p.m.		 FENU
Tehama Opens New Window 46 46 100.0% 30,492 13,016 42.7% Jun 3
8:25 p.m.		 Jun 10
5:32 p.m.		 CCU
Trinity Opens New Window 25 25 100.0% 7,062 3,367 47.7% Jun 3
8:21 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:40 p.m.		 FENU
Tulare Opens New Window 133 133 100.0% 137,306 40,580 29.6% Jun 3
8:39 p.m.		 Jun 10
5:06 p.m.		 CCU
Tuolumne Opens New Window 73 73 100.0% 29,880 9,624 32.2% Jun 3
8:34 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:01 p.m.		 FENU
Ventura Opens New Window 554 554 100.0% 427,349 101,384 23.7% Jun 3
8:27 p.m.		 Jun 10
4:14 p.m.		 CCU
Yolo Opens New Window 128 128 100.0% 101,854 33,557 32.9% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:38 p.m.		 CCU
Yuba Opens New Window 45 45 100.0% 27,122 5,518 20.3% Jun 3
9:07 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:59 a.m.		 FENU
Statewide 22,353 22,353 100.0% 17,722,006 4,195,136 23.7% Jun 37:59 p.m. Jun 11
5:35 p.m.		 FENU

Counties with “FENU” status — which hadn’t reported since their “Final Election Night Update” — included Amador, Calaveras, Humboldt, Imperial, Lake, Madera, Mendocino, Modoc, Placer, San Joaquin, Sierra, Sonoma, Sutter, Trinity, Tuolumne, and Yuba.  All other counties had “CCU” status, meaning that they had processed and reported at least some ballots since the early hours of June 4.

Now let’s “take a look” — and by now you know that that does not mean “read this in full immediately” — and the County Reporting Status as of today.

County Name Total Precincts Precincts
Partially Rpt’g See FAQS for additional information on how precincts reporting information is determined.		 % Reporting Registered
Voters		 Ballots Cast % Turnout First
Report
Date-Time		 Last
Report
Date-Time		 Report Type Jump to the Report Type definitions
Alameda Opens New Window 1,119 1,119 100.0% 803,728 202,589 25.2% Jun 3
8:53 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:33 p.m.		 CCU
Alpine Opens New Window 5 5 100.0% 766 533 69.6% Jun 3
9:53 p.m.		 Jun 9
4:33 p.m.		 CCU
Amador Opens New Window 59 59 100.0% 21,200 9,787 46.2% Jun 3
9:15 p.m.		 Jun 13
3:51 p.m.		 CCU
Butte Opens New Window 141 141 100.0% 119,081 40,731 34.2% Jun 3
8:47 p.m.		 Jun 10
12:26 p.m.		 CCU
Calaveras Opens New Window 30 30 100.0% 27,263 12,614 46.3% Jun 3
8:58 p.m.		 Jun 12
1:55 p.m.		 CCU
Colusa Opens New Window 18 18 100.0% 7,653 3,608 47.1% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 5
4:10 p.m.		 CCU
Contra Costa Opens New Window 650 650 100.0% 528,162 147,307 27.9% Jun 3
8:07 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:56 p.m.		 CCU
Del Norte Opens New Window 18 18 100.0% 12,398 5,950 48.0% Jun 3
8:32 p.m.		 Jun 11
5:13 p.m.		 CCU
El Dorado Opens New Window 95 95 100.0% 106,944 42,659 39.9% Jun 3
8:38 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:36 p.m.		 CCU
Fresno Opens New Window 447 447 100.0% 412,181 103,722 25.2% Jun 3
8:15 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:00 p.m.		 CCU
Glenn Opens New Window 34 34 100.0% 11,978 5,647 47.1% Jun 3
9:26 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:30 p.m.		 CCC
Humboldt Opens New Window 103 103 100.0% 75,411 22,535 29.9% Jun 3
8:48 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:32 a.m.		 FENU
Imperial Opens New Window 159 159 100.0% 58,197 17,476 30.0% Jun 3
9:16 p.m.		 Jun 13
3:04 p.m.		 CCU
Inyo Opens New Window 21 21 100.0% 9,509 3,916 41.2% Jun 3
8:48 p.m.		 Jun 9
5:24 p.m.		 CCU
Kern Opens New Window 444 444 100.0% 334,435 71,270 21.3% Jun 3
8:29 p.m.		 Jun 13
5:00 p.m.		 CCU
Kings Opens New Window 166 166 100.0% 47,420 15,152 32.0% Jun 3
9:04 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:12 p.m.		 CCU
Lake Opens New Window 70 70 100.0% 33,987 9,703 28.5% Jun 3
8:59 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:55 a.m.		 FENU
Lassen Opens New Window 54 54 100.0% 13,433 5,873 43.7% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
6:19 a.m.		 CCC
Los Angeles Opens New Window 4,870 4,870 100.0% 4,857,424 792,115 16.3% Jun 3
8:06 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:54 p.m.		 CCU
Madera Opens New Window 76 76 100.0% 52,817 15,719 29.8% Jun 3
8:00 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:40 p.m.		 FENU
Marin Opens New Window 157 157 100.0% 148,762 60,800 40.9% Jun 3
8:07 p.m.		 Jun 12
4:03 p.m.		 CCU
Mariposa Opens New Window 25 25 100.0% 10,574 4,907 46.4% Jun 3
10:10 p.m.		 Jun 9
2:40 p.m.		 CCU
Mendocino Opens New Window 249 249 100.0% 47,400 8,669 18.3% Jun 3
8:47 p.m.		 Jun 4
1:29 a.m.		 FENU
Merced Opens New Window 126 126 100.0% 94,779 23,819 25.1% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
2:12 p.m.		 CCU
Modoc Opens New Window 21 21 100.0% 5,454 2,896 53.1% Jun 3
9:57 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:08 a.m.		 FENU
Mono Opens New Window 13 13 100.0% 5,802 3,210 55.3% Jun 3
9:06 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:29 p.m.		 CCU
Monterey Opens New Window 194 194 100.0% 164,032 51,881 31.6% Jun 3
9:19 p.m.		 Jun 12
5:43 p.m.		 CCU
Napa Opens New Window 165 165 100.0% 71,241 27,445 38.5% Jun 3
7:59 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:44 p.m.		 CCU
Nevada Opens New Window 71 71 100.0% 61,711 26,068 42.2% Jun 3
8:49 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:17 p.m.		 CCU
Orange Opens New Window 1,856 1,856 100.0% 1,411,232 340,181 24.1% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 12
6:10 p.m.		 CCU
Placer Opens New Window 301 301 100.0% 200,829 47,986 23.9% Jun 3
9:14 p.m.		 Jun 4
2:06 a.m.		 FENU
Plumas Opens New Window 29 29 100.0% 12,030 5,225 43.4% Jun 3
8:21 p.m.		 Jun 10
2:16 p.m.		 CCU
Riverside Opens New Window 847 847 100.0% 887,643 198,102 22.3% Jun 3
8:19 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:34 p.m.		 CCU
Sacramento Opens New Window 1,102 1,102 100.0% 688,443 198,772 28.9% Jun 3
8:09 p.m.		 Jun 13
1:40 p.m.		 CCU
San Benito Opens New Window 35 35 100.0% 23,778 7,573 31.8% Jun 3
8:50 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:19 p.m.		 CCU
San Bernardino Opens New Window 1,662 1,662 100.0% 851,326 160,742 18.9% Jun 3
8:26 p.m.		 Jun 13
5:11 p.m.		 CCC
San Diego Opens New Window 1,616 1,616 100.0% 1,544,841 420,665 27.2% Jun 3
7:59 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:11 p.m.		 CCU
San Francisco Opens New Window 597 597 100.0% 434,922 129,373 29.7% Jun 3
8:02 p.m.		 Jun 10
4:12 p.m.		 CCU
San Joaquin Opens New Window 501 501 100.0% 293,837 78,437 26.7% Jun 3
8:47 p.m.		 Jun 13
12:44 p.m.		 CCU
San Luis Obispo Opens New Window 151 151 100.0% 150,302 62,310 41.5% Jun 3
9:00 p.m.		 Jun 11
2:24 p.m.		 CCU
San Mateo Opens New Window 475 475 100.0% 354,994 97,443 27.4% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
4:30 p.m.		 CCU
Santa Barbara Opens New Window 200 200 100.0% 193,900 71,464 36.9% Jun 3
8:09 p.m.		 Jun 6
3:30 p.m.		 CCU
Santa Clara Opens New Window 1,026 1,026 100.0% 805,922 263,959 32.8% Jun 3
8:22 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:50 p.m.		 CCU
Santa Cruz Opens New Window 200 200 100.0% 141,105 47,699 33.8% Jun 3
8:27 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:29 p.m.		 CCU
Shasta Opens New Window 122 122 100.0% 98,772 30,327 30.7% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:48 p.m.		 CCU
Sierra Opens New Window 22 22 100.0% 2,209 1,413 64.0% Jun 3
8:44 p.m.		 Jun 4
12:09 a.m.		 FENU
Siskiyou Opens New Window 57 57 100.0% 24,833 11,504 46.3% Jun 3
8:46 p.m.		 Jun 10
10:05 a.m.		 CCU
Solano Opens New Window 174 174 100.0% 201,728 54,200 26.9% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:26 p.m.		 CCU
Sonoma Opens New Window 366 366 100.0% 241,005 72,542 30.1% Jun 3
8:18 p.m.		 Jun 4
1:53 a.m.		 FENU
Stanislaus Opens New Window 357 357 100.0% 211,330 55,835 26.4% Jun 3
8:00 p.m.		 Jun 13
2:42 p.m.		 CCC
Sutter Opens New Window 53 53 100.0% 42,218 14,911 35.3% Jun 3
8:27 p.m.		 Jun 13
3:30 p.m.		 CCU
Tehama Opens New Window 46 46 100.0% 30,492 13,016 42.7% Jun 3
8:25 p.m.		 Jun 10
5:32 p.m.		 CCU
Trinity Opens New Window 25 25 100.0% 7,062 3,367 47.7% Jun 3
8:21 p.m.		 Jun 3
10:40 p.m.		 FENU
Tulare Opens New Window 133 133 100.0% 137,306 43,833 31.9% Jun 3
8:39 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:28 p.m.		 CCU
Tuolumne Opens New Window 73 73 100.0% 29,880 12,309 41.2% Jun 3
8:34 p.m.		 Jun 13
1:45 p.m.		 CCU
Ventura Opens New Window 554 554 100.0% 427,349 101,500 23.8% Jun 3
8:27 p.m.		 Jun 13
11:53 a.m.		 CCU
Yolo Opens New Window 128 128 100.0% 101,854 33,557 32.9% Jun 3
8:05 p.m.		 Jun 11
3:38 p.m.		 CCU
Yuba Opens New Window 45 45 100.0% 27,122 8,788 32.4% Jun 3
9:07 p.m.		 Jun 13
4:11 p.m.		 CCU

The ranks of the FENUs have dwindled to a precious few.  Now only Humboldt, Lake, Madera, Mendocino, Modoc, Placer, Sierra, Sonoma, and  Trinity remain in that stage.  And the big counties to watch are Humboldt and Sonoma.  (I’d also keep a close eye on Santa Barbara, which hasn’t reported since Friday, June 6 — a week ago.)

This map tells you who got the most votes for Controller in each county.  Here’s the Friday the 13th version:

Election Results Map - Controller, June 13

But which are the counties that haven’t updated since Election Night?  I’ll mark those and Santa Barbara in orange, with the ones that reported this last week in blue.

Election Results Map - Controller, FENU counties

Now compare those two maps.

Modoc, Trinity, Sierra, Placer, and even Santa Barbara are David Evans territory.  Madera is Swearengin territory.  Lake is Perez territory.  But the north coast — Humboldt, Mendocino, and Sonoma — that’s Betty Yee territory.

Here are the reported votes for each FENU county (plus Santa Barbara) as of Friday evening, Yee, then Perez:

Modoc:  310 (12.2%) vs. 178 (7.0%)
Sierra:  190 (16.0%) vs. 135 (11.3%)
Placer: 8154 (18.1%) vs. 6466 (14.3%)
Madera: 1595 (10.4) vs. 1900 (12.4%)
Humboldt: 5131 (25.7) vs. 3306 (16.5%)
Trinity: 544 (18.1%) vs. 393 (13.1%)
Mendocino:  2228 (28.3%) vs. 1546 (19.6%)
Lake: 1662 (18.6%) vs. 2326 (26.0%) 
Sonoma:  19,744 (29.6%) vs. 16,669 (25.0%)
Santa Barbara (early CCU, not FENU): 13,543 (20.9%) vs. 12,556 (20.3)

If that’s the territory your competing on, then I think you prefer to be Betty Yee.  Lake County is great for Perez, Madera County leans his way, but while Santa Barbara is evenly split, the others are moderately to strongly for Yee.  And those results are the best guesses we have from this information as to how the rest of the absentees and the provisionals will turn out.

While some votes will still come in from CCU counties, most notably Los Angeles, that North Coast area has a lot of as yet unaccounted for votes.  No guarantees, but I think that it looks better for Yee than for Perez.

About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-disabled and semi-retired, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally ran for office against jerks who otherwise would have gonr unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.) His daughter is a professional campaign treasurer. He doesn't usually know whom she and her firm represent. Whether they do so never influences his endorsements or coverage. (He does have his own strong opinions.) But when he does check campaign finance forms, he is often happily surprised to learn that good candidates he respects often DO hire her firm. (Maybe bad ones are scared off by his relationship with her, but they needn't be.)