This is probably the political news of the day — with likely reverberations for the rest of the decade:
[T]he partial closing of the government and the looming confrontation over the nation’s borrowing limit highlight the remarkable drop in the business community’s influence among House Republicans, who increasingly respond more to tea party conservatives than to the Chamber of Commerce.
On Wednesday, Obama is hosting chief executives from the nation’s 19 biggest financial firms. Moreover, the Chamber of Commerce has sent a letter to Congress signed by about 250 business groups urging no shutdown and warning against a debt ceiling crisis that they say could lead to an economically disastrous default.
…
Concerned, the Chamber of Commerce is preparing to participate in political primaries, protecting friendly lawmakers from conservative challengers. “Clearly we’re getting to a point where we need a Congress that’s going to be productive, proactive and create a stable environment for economic growth and job creation,” said Scott Reed, a Republican political consultant who is advising the chamber on its strategy.
That boldfaced sentence is key. Republican politicians have been afraid to take on the Tea Party faction of the GOP because of the fear that the Republican Tea Party (and its big donors such as the Koch Brothers, who are quite happy to see more damage to government as a means of neutralizing and discrediting it) will knock them off in primaries.
Several of the GOP’s relative establishment candidates (I can’t even call them “moderates” except relatively), including those in Nevada, Delaware, Indiana, and Missouri, were knocked off in U.S. Senate primaries in the past few years — with their Tea Party opponents ultimately losing to Democrats. One, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, survived losing the primary with a write-in campaign. Others was defeated by Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas, who won the general election. Similar although less dramatic and consequential results have been seen in the House of Representatives. This has Congressional Republicans running scared.
This fear of a successful primary challenge has emboldened the Republicans in Congress, putting personal safety above the welfare of the nation, to sign on to hostage taking and brinksmanship — threatening the nation’s reputation and credit by holding the economy hostage until Obamacare is repealed or delayed. Even elder statesmen who should (and probably do) know better, such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner — who sees a hungry and ambitious Majority Leader Eric Cantor over his shoulder — are making a show of support for this destruction. Their bottom line is that, having taken the economy hostage, they have to get something good out of it so that it looks like a political victory rather than a defeat.
If all of this leads to people hating and blaming Congress — they don’t really mind so much. After all, “blaming Congress” means in part blaming Democrats — the ones refusing to negotiate with hostage-takers — and so long as the blame is shared they’re OK. (That people are overwhelmingly blaming Republicans and not Democrats doesn’t seem to have registered with them — or maybe they just think that that will naturally fade.) They’ve gerrymandered the districts so well that it would be hard for some of them to lose pretty much no matter what they did. The threat to them is in the primary, and only in the primary.
That’s been the reasoning, at least. And that has just changed.
The problem is that political decisions don’t simply affect politics. They affect policy — and policy affects the economy. These self-interested politicians can afford to be nihilists; actual profit-seeking commercial interests, who don’t live in the bubble of Washington D.C., can’t. And they’ve just announced that they’re fighting back.
They’re going to defend Republicans who will abide by basic rules of good governance — such as, ” don’t risk the country’s economic stability just to make a political gesture” — in primaries. And it would surprise me if they ended up supporting even some liberal Democrats in Congressional races where the most strident Tea Partiers win the Republican nominations. Yes, Democrats may try to take some coins off of their pile — but they’re not likely to bring in a wrecking ball and scatter the pile all over the place for ideological reasons.
As you can imagine, I’m ambivalent about depending on the Chamber of Commerce to swoop in and save the economy — for about five seconds. Then, I think “OK, if their adults need to take back the party, fine.” I’m happy to work in common cause with Tea Party libertarians on things like opposing corporate bailouts and giveaways and immunity from prosecution — but when they actually stop giving a damn whether the government operates or not I have to part ways.
Of the names in the title, one has already given his answer, in the same linked article:
When Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., was asked if he had heard business groups express fears of a government shutdown’s economic impact, he replied: “No. And it wouldn’t make any difference if I did.”
So you can write off Crazy Dana — unless a “moderate” candidate came forward and was able to force a top-two Republican runoff, in which Democrats might well join in with the one they dislike over the one who wants to destroy the government. (Any politicians in coastal OC interested in taking up that sort of mantle? You can look up the CoC’s address.)
And Issa, of course, has more money than the Chamber of Commerce if he wants to spend it — although a moderate Republican of stature could probably pick up a whole lot of Democratic support in his district along with those Republicans who work with the Chamber. Democrats will profess indifference as to which of them was elected — but a long government shutdown with promises to make this a recurring nightmare might tilt them towards someone else.
The interesting questions regard Ed Royce and the competition for John Campbell’s seat.
Royce is an establishment Republican — the Committee Chair who failed to regulate the banks as they tanked the economy, in fact — who has nevertheless been a member of the Tea Party Caucus. His breaking with the Ted Cruz faction of the party would be big news — possibly enough to start a landslide by itself. So, will he take the Chamber’s invitation for political protection if he takes a major role in ending this hostage-taking?
If he doesn’t, then he truly is vulnerable. Jay Chen showed that a competent challenger could put a butt-searing scare into Royce with much less money — even considering IEs. If the shutdown continues — and especially if the debt ceiling hostage-taking continues — then he’s going to be ripe for challenge. I’ve already said that Democratic officeholders looking for a winnable race should consider moving to the area — he can’t really complain about carpetbagging after he himself arranged the carpetbagging campaign of his aide Young Kim — and taking him on based on this issue alone: he could have stopped this and he didn’t. Someone like John Perez or Wendy Greuel or Phil Angelides — you could beat him based on the simple campaign slogan of “Stop the Nonsense.” (And a lot of money, of course — but any of you could raise that.)
As for Campbell’s CA-45 seat — what a great opportunity for a moderate Republican to differentiate himself from others in the pack! Scott Lay lists five candidates for the district:
- Pat Maciarellio (Republican) – Investor
- Greg Raths (Republican) – Retired Marine Corps Colonel
- Mimi Walters (Republican) – Member, State Senate
- Steven Choi (Republican) – Councilmember, Irvine
- John Moorlach (Republican) – Supervisor, Orange County
of whom the last three have some serious heft. A Democrat will probably enter the race, meaning that the Republican who differentiates himself or herself from the pack — say, with a binding agreement to oppose any proposal that would lead to shutdown or default or similarly damaging results — could end up in a top two with that Democrat. I don’t know if any of those three would do it — Choi, maybe — but if none of them will then room is open for an insurgent moderate. (Tom Campbell could rely on the voters thinking that they were voting for John Campbell again, to boot.)
While only Congress will vote on this, it will affect lower-order races as well. I’m certain that Sharon Quirk-Silva and Jose Solorio (if he survives a challenge from the Mystery Progressive) will both reject the idea of such hostage-taking. Will Young Kim? (She’ll probably do whatever Royce does — which makes his choice even more interesting.) Will Chris Norby, if I’m right that he may be running? (No.) Will Janet Nguyen — who is presumed to have her eye on Alan Lowenthal’s seat in 2016 if she is elected to a four-year State Senate term next year? That one is a puzzler.
Look to Orange County, Democrats and moderate Republicans! We may have more competitive races here next year than you think!
At this time of night, I side with the Nihilists. I will see you in my lucid dreaming.
There is only side: The Republicans. These critters will side with their Republican counterparts.
The media should stop trying to portray the “18 to 21 moderates” faction. There are no moderates in the Republicans. If there were, we would have a discharge petition succeed by now.
Yes, on TV cameras in order to remain relevant some will blame “extreme elements” in their party and vow to be for ending the shutdown. Or raising the debt ceiling.
They will not vote that way unless their vote does not matter, i.e., it is a foregone conclusion, and if pressed they’ll revert to “Obama has not compromised.”
Why does the media fall for this bullshit? Over and over again.
WHat’s next? Greg Raths or Mimi Walters to be considered moderate?
The Dana Rohrabacher statement Gericault put on our last Republicans story illustrates that well.
Who’s Greg Raths? Should we be worried about him now?
Greg Raths is the next congresscritter hopful from Irvine or Lake Forest. He is running for the open seat as a “different kind of Republican.” He stands for limited government, wants to repeal and replace Obamacare, constitution-loving, low taxes, no gays, a… you know different. because he is a marine, family man, jesus man, states rights man, non affirmative action man, conservative man, gun rights man, national defense man, like no other Republican. Or man.
Worried maybe the right word because the alternative is Mimi Walters or Moorlach. God help us.
Add plagiarist to the list for Raths. http://missionviejo.patch.com/groups/dan-averys-blog/p/congressional-candidate-plagiarizes-post and the piece was on…wait for it…Ben Franklin of all people. You know “honesty is the best policy” Ben. In addition he is against marriage equality because his “religion makes him do that.” Wasn’t religion used to make slavery legitimate? You guys ought to scrutinize this clown. His campaign manager is a real estate agent who was nailed for fraud; apparently she sold a property that wasn’t for sale. Raths was also a member of Tailhook. Rut Roh!!
Greg,
Campbell seat will be taken by someone who has the most money and the largest backing in Orange County history. Depends what party has the most to gain. Unfortunately I do not believe it will be the voters choice, the choice has already been made by the Super PACS.
The Super PACs have expanded the ability of wealthy individuals and corporations to shape most election outcomes and set the policy agenda in almost every city, state and local government, particularly in Orange County and in Irvine.
Good article
Geeze, talk about out-of-touch with reality. Didn’t you watch any of the talking heads thsi weekend. They all said that it was “both parties fault.” and as long as the “news” (and I use that term loosely) continues to report this as a play-by-play sports event, it really doesn’t mater because the populace will remain a bunch of uninformed sheep who’s vote can be bought by the best advertising.
When ONE of the talking heads says, “In the last election there were more votes for Democratic members of the House of Representatives than there were for Republicans, and the only reason that the GOP holds a majority is because they gerrymandered the voting districts to hold more seats even though they got less votes.” I’ll be impressed that they are actually reporting reality. When ONE of them states “The goal of this effort is to overturn the results of the last election that they lost at the ballot box.” I’ll be shocked and amazed.
But that isn’t going to happen because the news media has already said that it’s not their job to correct the lies spoken by politicians on their programs, but to present both sides, even when one side is lying from both sides of their mouth. (NBC News Political Director and Chief White House Correspondent Chuck Todd : http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chuck-todd-it-s-not-media-s-job-to-correct-gop-s-obamacare-falsehoods-video )
So, Royce, Isaa, Rohrabacher and the others have nothing to fear. Just as long as they don’t bitch the Koch brothers too much they won’t be primaried by deep pockets and they will continue to not be held accountable for their actions.
My name is Greg Raths from Mission Viejo. I am a retired Marine Corps Colonel who spent the majority of my carreer as a fighter pilot based at the USMC base at El Toro (78-95). I retired here in OC after I retired from active duty in 2004. I am a family man with three wonderful and successful children. I entered the race because I want to serve my friends and neighbors from south OC as their representative. It is that simple. I am not backed by special interest groups. I am basically self funding my campaign.
Mimi Walters, John Moorlach, and myself can all go to Washington, D.C. together if we each ran in our own district and won. Why does Mimi and John have to come to the 45th to run? My guess is they couldn’t win in their own district against Issa or Rohrabacher.
I have no magic formula to win this race. I just spend time meeting the people of the 45th and listening to their issues and we sit, have coffee and talk to see how I could help them if I were to win. It is that simple. Most will write me off because I don’t have the big bucks or the establisment behind me, but I believe in the current political climate, people are looking for new blood, they are looking for a proven leader and someone they can trust. Someone who cares. My Marines trusted me when I led them into combat in 3 seperate conflicts. My passengers of the Airbus I flew trusted me to get them safely from point A to point B when I was a commercial airline pilot. And my employees trusted me to make payroll when I was president of a small business in Anaheim. If trust and caring were virtues to win a Congressional campaign I should win, but like several comments here on this blog already mentioned, it takes money, big money. Therefore, let’s see how things turn out on June 3rd for the primary.
During Mimi’s and John’s politcal careers, has taxes gone up or down? Has government shrunk or gotten bigger? Did they passionately oppose some crazy laws coming out of Sacramento like AB1266? I am not some right wing wacko. I am just a citizen who listens to my friends and neighbors and entered the arena of politics because I am passionate about my country, state, and community. Greg Raths