A huge argument has developed in Irvine, where there is much consternation and debate as to why the Republicans were not able to defeat Larry Agran.
Allan Bartlett, an OC GOP Central Committee member, thinks the OC GOP did blow it.
“The party did blow it big time. That will be getting addressed for next time around. There’s plenty of blame to go around, but Scott Baugh and to a lesser extent John Campbell are the main ones responsible for this debacle and we will not forget that,” Bartlett wrote on Facebook.
While one Republican won, Jeff Lalloway, another GOP candidate, Lynn Schott, lost, by only 3.3% of the vote.
The Voice of OC shed some light on this in a new post. Here are a few excerpts:
Former mayor Bill Vardoulis said Lalloway did try to work it out with Schott. Vardoulis said he witnessed a dramatic restaurant meeting involving Schott, Lalloway and Frances Akhavi, a Schott ally disliked by some in the party.
Akhavi, Vardoulis said, was shouting at Lalloway and accusing an official with the Irvine Republican Council, an extension of the county GOP, of embezzlement.
Interesting. Outgoing Irvine Councilwoman Christina Shea dumped Lalloway from a City Commission, the week before the election, because he sent out a mailer stating that he was the only GOP-endorsed candidate. Well, that was true for a long time. But was this enough of a sin to cast him out? In retrospect, no. And now Shea is finished in local Republican politics.
The fact is, Lalloway smartly got in with his party elite, over the past few years. I noticed that he cut checks to both Steven Choi and his primary opponent, Jerry Amante, when they faced off in the Primary Election for an Assembly seat. Lalloway is a friend of Choi’s, but he knew enough to reach out to Amante, who is influential in his own right.
It was no surprise that Lalloway raised more money than any other candidate in Irvine this year. He paid his dues and it paid off. And he worked closely with Congressman John Campbell – which paid off as well since Campbell soundly defeated his Democratic opponent, Irvine Councilwoman Beth Krom. No doubt Campbell helped Lalloway considerably in the process.
Schott, on the other hand, allied with a bunch of tea party loons and she barely raised any money. Lesson learned.
The Voice of OC also interviewed OC GOP insider Adam Probolsky about the election results. His comments are quite enlightening:
Probolsky said Farivar’s poor showing was because of “old and tired” campaign tactics, like glossy slate mailers, and a failure to connect on a personal level with the voters. That, combined with her unfamiliar name, worked against her, Probolsky said.
“Most people don’t know what a Shiva Farivar or a Yunus Aksoy is,” Probolsky said. With Schott, he added, “I [the Irvine voter] know what I’m getting. I know she’s probably a white lady — I gravitate towards what I know.”
The real reason Schott and Lalloway couldn’t take out Agran, Probolsky said, is because “life is good in Irvine” and most people don’t pay attention to the constant media drumming about corruption at the Great Park or wasteful spending.
“Very few Irvine residents give a crap about the Great Park,” Probolsky said. “The city’s finances are largely unimportant to them.” He added, “What could Lynn Schott and her band of misfits have done to hurt Larry Agran? I have no idea.”
I can’t disagree with Probolosky’s assertions, with regard to the quality of life in Irvine. He is right, most folks are happy there and so they keep on voting for the incumbents.
I do disagree with Probolsky with regard to non-white candidates. Obviously he forgot the success of Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang, who won resoundingly again this year, against Republican candidate Chris Gonzalez. Minority candidates can indeed prevail in Irvine, but Probolsky is right to assert that Farivar, and Aksoy, simply were not well known.
Planning Commissioners generally have a leg up in City Council races, but Farivar’s claim to fame was being allied with Agran, and Krom. That just wasn’t enough. In contrast, Lalloway has been very active in city politics and in supporting Irvine schools. Voters knew him and gave him their vote.
So why did Schott do better than Farivar? Well, I think there were just too many minority candidates on the ballot. Aksoy and Bijan Mazarji cut into the voter bloc, and Farivar paid the price.
I think Lalloway will do a fine job on the Irvine City Council. He is not a nutter, but he does have firm fiscally conservative views. He doesn’t reflexively attack Agran. In fact I think they will work well together, which will surprise some. Lalloway is a nice guy and his personality will allow him to be effective.
It is easy to blame the OC GOP, but the truth is, Schott did not reach out to her party. She slammed it and allied with an angry rabble. It didn’t serve her well and she paid the price. That’s politics.
Do minorities really vote only with their kind? That is disturbing. So much for being a “melting pot” and assimilating.
No.
For once I agree with Vern. This was proven when a substantial number of Vietnamese voted against Phu Nguyen propelling Allan Mansoor to the State Assembly.
Yunus Aksoy spent the most money on signs, had the most signs up throughout Irvine and finished dead last with 3.3% of the vote. Chris Moore, a college student who had less signs up around town received more votes than Aksoy.
The best thing that happened to Lalloway was that Shea fired him days prior to the election. She is not that well liked among her own party, much less among Irvine residents that I know. Maybe his distancing from Shea won him a few votes. I wish I could say the same for Agran because there are Democrats in Irvine that get agitated if you take Lord Agran’s name in vain. One of them is a Northwood resident who makes a living criticizing Santa Ana politics.
It would take a City of Bell like scandal to oust Agran from office. We’ll just have to settle for him to be term limited out. Why Irvine residents seem so content with the lack of progress and the shady financial dealings with the Great Park is beyond me. Oh wait, we’ll distract them with free rides on the big orange balloon. Kudos to R. Scott Moxley from the OC Weekly for taking the Agranistas to task.
GF,
Of course Moore had the OJ advantage! He has blogged for us and he was on our online radio show, before the election.
That said, Shea’s actions did backfire as did the silly attack on Lalloway that dredged up stupid issues that were too old to matter. I am glad he won. I think he will do a fine job on the Council.
Agran I think is in an interesting position with Jerry Brown winning the Governorship. They have similar views and I think that this will help Agran and Irvine, as will his connection to Obama. However, the Democrats have a limited window to fix the mess in Sacramento, and the same goes for Obama. If they fail, 2012 could be another bloodbath for the blue party…
How can any party “fix” anything, with absurd supermajority votes need for funding, and term limits that bring in the naive amateurs? That’s how we got screwed by Enron, years ago. At least with Brown there will be some sort of attention to environmental concerns.
“Lynn Schott, lost, by only 3.3% of the vote”
You can blame Scot Baugh and the OC GOP “Leadership”. They jacked around with Lynn’s endorsement and went negative on her because they felt dised by her at a previous meeting. Thanks to OC GOP pride we don’t have a GOP majority on the Irvine Council today.
Yeah, well the city hall status quo persists. But hell, 9 percent aint too shabby.
Well, the status quo at city hall remains. Agran still has his majority, so don’t expect anything from Lalloway.
I’ve lived in Irvine for 30 years, and know Agran well. He has always been an efficient mayor and councilman, and cares about the residents. I’ve seen him in many meetings, and has proven himself well. Also, he wasn’t afraid to take on the polce association and vote to deny them a further raise, (which offset any layoffs) although they all showed up in black shirts at the council meeting, missing the irony. All in all, he’s a ncie alternative to the flood of republican douchebags we are constantly saddled with in South OC.
I did not see any winning attributes in Schott, so it is amazing she finished as well as she did.
Sorry for the double post. As for Larry Agran… theres so much I could say, but you don’t even have to live in Irvine to figure out that he does not deserve to be re-elected. As for Schott, she was my favorite, and should have been elected.
But for Larry, we’d have a massive 24/7 international airport in our back yard. That alone qualifies him for representation.
the airport issue is dead and has been for almost a decade. move on. The fact that the city has been running 14 million dollars in the red for the past 3 years, combined with dozens of multimillion no-bid contracts issued to Great Park developers, and the hiding of environmental reports from the public is more than enough to deserve the boot.
Well, not really. It raises its ugly head every once in a while; I guess the theme in your post is “what have you done for me lately?” Fairly typical of the American electorate with its stunningly short memory.
Where are those self proclaimed “CHALLENGERS OF THE RIGHT WING NOISE MACHINE”
Answer: at a comic book convention, in a living room in LONG BEACH and shopping for subsidized housing in Anaheim.
People call Santa Ana government dysfunctional????
LOL!