They’ll vote against it before they vote for it.

 March 21, 2010 3:15 pm Eastern

FLASH: Senate Republicans found a provision in the new House health care bill that likely makes it ineligible for expedited ‘reconciliation’ procedures in the Senate. Dems refused to meet with GOP and Parliamentarian…

There are now THIRTY NINE “no” votes on the Democrat Whip Count. That’s two more than Pelosi can take for this bill to pass. That’s not including the “undecideds” bargaining at the 11th hour on abortion language. Democrats are hoping to swing a few last minute votes by holding the reconciliation vote BEFORE the vote on the actual bill. Though how they can constitutionally vote to amend a bill that isn’t a law yet is a question others will ask later. The Senate parliamentarian has said that a reconciliation vote is only possible on a bill that has become LAW. So Obama will have to sign the Senate Health Care Bill into law in order for there to be reconciliation on it. And once it is law, who will care if reconciliation passes? Hey, its about getting SOMETHING PASSED, right?

Call the moderate and Blue Dog Democrats and tell them to STAY NO.

The NO Democrats are:

Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No (39)
John Adler (N.J.) (N) Adler announced March 18 he will vote no
Jason Altmire (Pa.) * (N) Announced March 19 he is going to vote no, saying, “I strongly believe that a vote in opposition to the health care bill is consistent with the views of the district I represent.” On March 16, Altmire told Fox Business Network that he has major problem with Democrats’ “deem and pass” strategy, calling it “wrong.” Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told McClatchy Newspapers earlier this month he was targeting Altmire
Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) (Y) He is now a firm no. His statement reads, “And after several meetings and conversations with the president, Speaker of the House, administration officials and colleagues, I am not convinced enough changes can be made to the Senate health care bill to meet the needs of the people in my district.”
John Barrow (Ga.) * (N) Announced on March 19 he is a no. Barrow told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “It puts too much of the burden of paying for it on working folks who are already being overcharged, and that’s not fair. It threatens to overwhelm Medicaid in Georgia, and that’s not right. And it barely touches the insurance companies, and that’s not smart.” Barrow had been considered a likely no vote. He voted no last year in committee and on floor.
Marion Berry (Ark.) * (Y) Berry has not been talking publicly recently. Berry, who is retiring, could be a yes. However, he has been critical of the president since announcing his retirement. Strong backer of Stupak language. Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15. He voted no on climate change last year
Dan Boren (Okla.) * (N) Won’t be changing his mind — firm no
Rick Boucher (Va.) (N) GOP target who has told local press outlets in Virginia he has major problems with Medicare cuts and “unsavory dealmaking” that benefited Nebraska, Louisiana and Florida. Leaning no
Bobby Bright (Ala.) * (N) Voted against House health bill, stimulus and climate change. Firm no
Ben Chandler (Ky.) * (N) His office told The Hill on March 15: “Congressman Chandler’s position on the bill remains the same. He expects to vote against the legislation.”
Travis Childers (Miss.) * (N) Told the Daily Journal he will vote no, citing lack of strong language on abortion funding. From Childers’s statement: “While I cannot vote for current House legislation, I remain committed to effective, fiscally responsible healthcare reform that makes sense for North Mississippi.”
Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) One of his senior aides, David Gillies, told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Costelllo will vote no on the Senate bill. Most of the calls, e-mails and letters he has received have advised a no vote. His office did say he was “undecided” on the reconciliation legislation if it comes up for a vote.
Artur Davis (Ala.) * (N) Running for governor, but will make sure to return to D.C. to vote no
Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) * (N) In a major development, Davis told The Hill March 21 he will vote no, saying, “I’m going to vote exactly the same way.” Davis voted no in November
Joe Donnelly (Ind.) * (Y) Among the Stupak dozen — will vote no unless abortion language in Senate bill is changed, according to The Rochester Sentinel
Steve Driehaus (Ohio) * (Y) In toss-up race in November who is ardent backer of Stupak language. Now sounds like a very firm no. Told the Cincinnati Enquirer, “They are going to have to do it without me and without the other pro-life Democrats.” His spokesman told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer: “Unless changes are made to the abortion language in the Senate version, Rep. Driehaus will be voting no.” Still, it’s possible Driehaus could shift to the yes column if a deal on abortion is worked out between the White House and Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.).
Chet Edwards (Texas) (N) Perennial GOP target. Edwards spokesman told CNN he will vote no. Votes no at March 15 Budget Committee markup
Larry Kissell (N.C.) (N) GOP target, but reelection chances on the rise. Firm no
Frank Kratovil (Md.) (N) Voted for climate change; says he will vote no
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.) (N) Congresswoman told the Rapid City Journal she’s a no, noting she is not a fan of reconciliation. She also voted no on education reform bill expected to move in reconciliation with healthcare reform
Tim Holden (Pa.) * (N) The Morning Call reported March 20 that Holden received a call from President Barack Obama, and told him he will be voting no. Has expressed concerns about cuts to Medicare. Voted against healthcare and climate change in 2009.
Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) * (Y) Will not vote for abortion language in Senate bill, but has other concerns as well. Democratic leaders cannot count on Lipinski
Stephen Lynch (Mass.) * (Y) Says he will vote no. Proponent of Stupak language. Has major problems with “deem and pass” strategy. Told Politico, “I don’t buy the argument that he’s done if this doesn’t pass. He’s got three more years. He can recover.”
Jim Marshall (Ga.) * (N) Perennial GOP target, but favored to win reelection. Told The Hill he’s a no
Jim Matheson (Utah) * (N) Announced on March 20 he will vote on no. He voted no last year, both on the floor and in committee
Mike McIntyre (N.C.) * (N) Seven-term lawmaker rejected House health bill and climate change. Spokesman tells The Hill McIntyre is a no. Expected to win reelection easily even though Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won district
Mike McMahon (N.Y.) (N) Suggested last month he was a no to the Staten Island Advance. McMahon told The Hill on March 12 he is leaning no. Voted no on education reform bill that is expected to move with healthcare reform in reconciliation
Charlie Melancon (La.) * (N) He is now a firm no. Senate hopeful voted no in November and no in committee.
Walt Minnick (Idaho) (N) One of the House’s most conservative members. Firm no
Glenn Nye (Va.) (N) His no vote is a big setback for Democratic leaders. Nye announced his vote late on March 20. A press release cited “potential problems for TRICARE recipients, the cost of the bill, and cuts to children’s hospitals. Nye is in a toss-up race. He voted no on climate change in 2009
Collin Peterson (Minn.) * (N) Ag chairman not shy in bucking leadership. Firm no
Nick Rahall (W.Va.) * (Y) The Hill reported March 19 that Rahall is involved in discussions with Senate on abortion provisions. Told the Charleston Daily Mail that he will vote no unless abortion language is changed. Rahall is third committee chairmen on this Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No list. Rahall voted no on climate change bill in 2009
Mike Ross (Ark.) * (N) AP reported March 19 that Ross is a firm no.
Heath Shuler (N.C.) * (N) CNN reporting Shuler is a no. Doesn’t hold his tongue when he opposes Democratic leaders. Critic of reconciliation. Gannett New Services reports Shuler is leaving himself wiggle room. Shuler said: “Until I know the details of the final bill and the process, I am reluctant to draw a line in the sand.”
Ike Skelton (Mo.) * (N) GOP targeting his seat. Armed Services Committee chairman is a firm no. He reiterated his no vote on the House floor on March 20
Zack Space (Ohio) * (Y) In big setback for House leaders, Space announced on March 20 he will vote no. He voted yes in committee and yes on the floor last year
Bart Stupak (Mich.) * (Y) Was going to hold March 20 press conference with “other pro-life Democrats,” but is was canceled on Saturday morning. Many believe the press conference was to announce a deal with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), but any deal is off — at least for the moment.
Gene Taylor (Miss.) * (N) Has been a firm no all Congress. Constituents last summer urged him to get others to vote no
John Tanner (Tenn.) * (N) CNN and the Plum Line reporting Tanner is a no. Huge blow for Democrats. Tanner, who is not running for reelection, voted no last November
Harry Teague (N.M.) * (N) Announced March 19 that he is a no and ripped the bill for doing more for insurance companies than the uninsured: “In fact, I believe we are doing more for the insurance companies than we are for the people who need this coverage, and that is why, despite the positive steps it takes, I must vote against this bill.The Undecideds must ALL fall Miss Nancy’s way and 2 No’s must change their minds for this to pass.

Undecided/Unclear (7)
Jim Cooper (Tenn.) * (Y) Has had up-and-down relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Her yes vote could be key to passage. Strong backer of Stupak language
Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Also voted against education reform bill that will move with healthcare reform in reconciliation
Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) * (Y) In November, seat was considered safe. Now, he’s in a tight race
Mike Quigley (Ill.) (Y) Late addition to this list. The Chicago Sun Times reported March 20 that Quigley said he will not vote for bill if a deal is make with Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) on abortion. Quigley, who replaced Rahm Emanuel in the House, said he talked to White House political adviser David Axelrod on March 19
Bobby Rush (Ill.) (Y) Surprise addition to this list. Said he was undecided on March 18. The Hill reported that Rush engaged in several discussions with leadership lawmakers after announcing his position. Concerned about bill’s impact on hospitals in poor areas. Still, liberal congressman is a likely yes. Rush defeated Barack Obama in 2000 House primary
Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) (Y) It was reported on March 21 she will show up for vote, but unclear if she will vote yes. Was a late yes in November