Is John Campbell’s (R-OC) seat vulnerable in 2010?
California GOP voter registration is “dropping like a rock,” a new study shows, declining so fast that Democratic Party officials see an unprecedented opportunity to gain voters and House seats in the 2010 election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted 35 districts across the country represented by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives – including eight in California – that were won by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, said Jennifer Crider, the committee spokeswoman.
The vulnerable California districts with Republican representatives that were won by Obama are those of Reps. Dan Lungren of Gold River (Sacramento County), Mary Bono-Mack of Palm Springs, David Dreier of San Dimas (Los Angeles County), Elton Gallegly of Thousand Oaks (Ventura County), Brian Bilbray of Solana Beach (San Diego County), John Campbell of Newport Beach (Orange County), Ken Calvert of Riverside and Howard “Buck” McKeon of Santa Clarita (Los Angeles County), the committee says. Even Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seemed surprised this week at the number of Republicans her party’s campaign experts are targeting.
“The big picture is that, currently, there is not one single state legislative or congressional district that has a majority of the voters registering Republican,” says Allan Hoffenblum, who just finished an analysis for the California Target Book, a nonpartisan publication that regularly analyzes state congressional and legislative races.
“There’s a large slice of voters there being turned off by the Republican Party,” said Hoffenblum. “What’s really hurting them there is an increase in middle-class Asian and Latino voters – and they’re not voting Republican. They’re registering decline-to-state.”
The Republican problems are dramatized in areas like Congressional District 3, the Sacramento district Lungren represents, which is considered a stalwart of GOP conservatism.
In 2001, the district’s voter registration was 54 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat, and 13 percent “decline to state,” Hoffenblum said.
His latest analysis shows that the same district has lost nearly 30 percent of its GOP base and is now 40 percent Republican, 38 percent Democrat and 18 percent decline-to-state.
There, as in other regions of California, “Republicans can no longer be elected by Republican alone – they need crossovers,” Hoffenblum said. “The decline-to-states will be a significant factor in the 2010 election cycle.”
More at The Chronicle
Lets see….With Those 8 Republicans we still have the highest income, sales, car, business, and every other damm tax you can think of. Spending is so out of control, that we will never get out of the hole we are in.The teachers and Prison Guards unions run the state, and now we see the Mayors of San Fran, and LA trying to out liberal each other to become the next Governor. Seriously what more can possibly be done, if it were all democrats, before the final remaining productive taxpayers finally have enough and move to Idaho, Arizona, Nevada, or some other state?
bigmarkod,
You’ve got a point. John Campbell is possibly being challenged by Irvine’s Mayor, Beth Krom, from what I read.
Bono and Dreier are pretty weak players who have enjoyed the good fortune of being in GOP districts. I am curious how they will do going forward. Of course the democrats have to actually field competent opponents, which complicates things, b/c dems can not be counted on consistently. They are all over the place most of the time.
Maybe it be a good thing to shift to Demo’s 2010.
Then there would be no excuse, and no question on who caused the USA and California bankuptcy that is sure to come.
I think we would ALL Be better represented in this state if we had redistricting that was designed to keep the districts competative!
Seriously, I you have ever looked at a district map, it is just Sick!
Can’t anyone step up with an idea for a solution?
*Joe Barton has been busy sending out desperate
appeals to Conservative Republicans for ideas…
of any kind. Whether these 8 Republicans maintain their seats will depend on two very very
important issues: (1) Can the Republican Party
re-invent itself? Can it develop actual ethics,
morals and values which the American people can
relate to? (2) How will these guys vote? Are
they going to go shoulder to shoulder and just vote NO….or are they going to stand up for what they truly believe in and have “reasons for their
vote” that their constituents will buy?
We love Bilbray, McKeon and Lundren….the rest are all on “Social Probation”….and they better
get their act together along with doing some serious “constituents services”….like looking out for their districts during this Budget free for all!