O.C. bloggers have parsed the upcoming special election to select a representative in the First Supervisorial District a thousand ways, but while we cannot find agreement as to whether or not Vietnamese, Latino or other voters will prevail, one thing we can agree on is that women will likely make up more than half the voters. These kind of low-turnout elections favor older voters, and women live longer than men. So why aren’t either of the major parties getting behind one of the female candidates?
The Democrats seem to be waiting for Tom Umberg to make up his mind. In the meantime it appears that Garden Grove Councilman Mark Rosen is their guy – but Garden Grove voters make up a much smaller bloc of voters in this district compared to Santa Ana voters. Kermit Marsh attested in a Red County/OC Blog post that 40% of the votes cast in the March, 2004 primary were from Santa Ana. That does not bode well for Rosen – even if Umberg does not run.
Why aren’t the Democrats getting behind Santa Ana Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez? She has run for the 69th Assembly District twice, and while her results dropped this year, there were three candidates in the primary. She has been in office for six years, and she has a great ballot designation as she works for OC District Attorney Tony Rackauckas. Moreover, Lou Correa won 44% in a crowded primary in 2004, for the 1st District, and close to 55% in the general, against Garden Grove Councilman Bruce Broadwater.
The problem for Alvarez is that there are several other Santa Ana residents in the race, including her fellow councilman, Carlos Bustamante, and anti-immigration activist Lupe Moreno. Former Santa Ana Councilman Brett Franklin is also in the mix. But Alvarez is the only Democrat in that bunch.
As for the Republicans, they have a strong candidate in Garden Grove Councilwoman Janet Nguyen, however she has apparently angered a lot of her fellow Republicans over the years. GOP powerbrokers Jim Righeimer and Michael Schroeder are backing Garden Grove School Board Member Trung Nguyen – an acolyte of Assemblyman Van Tran.
But Trung could not win a Central Committee election this year, in Tran’s 68th Assembly District, even though he was the only Vietnamese candidate on the ballot. And he lost a water board election in the general election, in a district that overlaps the 1st district, to Kathryn Barr, a Democrat candidate. He just doesn’t appear to be viable.
So we have two strong female candidates for the 1st District – and a third candidate in dark horse Lupe Moreno, and neither party is coalescing support behind them. The message to women voters in the 1st District is clear – both parties want your votes but neither one wants you to vote for a female candidate.
Will women automatically get behind one of their own? That’s hard to say. But there is only one woman on the Board of Supervisors – newly elected Pat Bates. It would be a good idea, in my opinion, to elect another one. If however that is to happen, either Alvarez or Janet Nguyen will have to vault over quite a few of their male colleagues. While I have been a vocal supporter of Janet Nguyen, you have to believe that Alvarez has the best odds in this field – if she can raise enough money in time, and if she can dispel voter fatigue and somehow excite the few voters that will turn out in this election. That’s a tall order.
I pose this question to our female readers – are you upset that neither party is getting behind a female candidate for the 1st District? Who do you like in this race? Will both parties suffer repercussions for not backing their women candidates? I look forward to your responses.
Sorry Art, Ward Connerly says no quotas so women will have to run on their own merits in this one.
You’re right about Claudia, she could win, place or show if she could raise the money. Question is, why(if stories are correct) is her political ally Senator Correa throwing her under the bus and supporting Rosen when she has a much better chance to win?
Merry Christmas Art.
Who is this reasonable imposter posing as Art Pedroza?
Where is the real Art Pedroza, and what have you done with him?
B/R,
Good question. I know that Correa supported the El Toro Airport, and Rosen’s consultant, Dave Ellis, is going after the support of all those who did so. Perhaps Ellis has figured out some way to attract Correa’s support. Also, Rosen is a smart guy, and he is capable on his own. He might have developed a bond with Correa during Rosens’t time on the OCTA board.
Michael Schroeder will support any candidate who is willing to pay him big bucks.
Lewis and Holder faired rather poorly with the last candidates they robbed, er, managed, so look for their effect to be minimal.
Many people hope Claudia will run. She is a real tiger!
There are some women who get behind a female candidate just because she’s female. I don’t buy into that. I’ve seen good women candidates and bad ones, and I have no interest in helping a woman just because we are the same gender.I want the best possible candidate for the job, even if that’s a man.
As for Claudia, she isn’t getting the support because she messed it up for herself a long time ago. She’s never figured out that it takes more than being a Latina with a good ballot designation to get the kind of support you need to move up.
She has this Princess attitude and thinks everyone *owes* her support because she’s a Latina. She has a bad temper, throws public tantrums, thinks what she say’s behind a closed door stays there and she has never been a team player. Worst of all, she thinks people are stupid and don’t know when she’s blowing smoke at them.
Local Dem’s have learned that lesson and so have the folks up in Sacramento. They have all been on the receiving end of her tirades. Now, no one wants her on their team! That’s why Umberg got so much support when he jumped into the Assembly race against her so late a few years ago. While many folks had already signed on to help her, they were glad to back-door some help to Umberg and sink her ship. And local Dem’s are not happy that she jumped into the BOS race either. It’s just another demonstration of her temper tantrums and not being a team player.
That’s also why Solorio beat her this time around and why she will never get the support she needs for any other race. Everyone is just so tired of her attitude and tirades, they’re counting the days until she just goes away.
As for Lou,he was supporting her as long as he thought she was viable and could help him. Helping her stay on the Council had no down side for him, nor did helping her in her first Assembly race. Remember, the BOS was never his end goal. It was always just a “landing place” until he could get back to Sacramento. He had his eye on the Senate seat when Dunn termed out and if he could have stopped Umberg in that Assembly race, he wouldn’t have had to go against him as a sitting Assemblyman in the Senate primary. Now, he’s figured out that Claudia’s downsides are too great a risk, she has no support to move up and he has no other use for her. He’d rather redeem himself as a good team player and back someone who has the potential to move up.
As for her chance to win the BOS race, that isn’t going to happen. She has no support and the best she can hope for is to take some votes from Rosen and Bustamonte.
Michael Schroeder will support any candidate who is willing to pay him big bucks.
You are an idiot. Schroeder is rich. Love him or hate him, Schroeder’s involved in politics becuase he loves it — it has nothing to do with money.
Lewis and Holder faired rather poorly with the last candidates they robbed, er, managed, so look for their effect to be minimal.
Looks like Elroy El is posting anonymously here. No consultant has a perfect win record. But Lewis and Holder probably have a higher batting average in OC than any other consultants.
Hey 10:52. I would put my name to it. Apparently someone else sees the Lewis/Holder team for what they are. I agree that no one bats a 1.000. But those oh-ferred in MV last year. Where else did they participate? And what was their record in those races?
Mr. Umberg jumped in… it should get interesting.
Ryan,
Yes it will. No telling what will happen now. I cannot imagine how Rosen will prevail at this point. Umberg has represented Santa Ana, Rosen has not.
Like it or not, this is going to be the third round for Umberg and Alvarez. In this crowded field of candidates, she might actually pull it off this time.
I keep hearing that Rosen is going to attack Umberg very heavily on his personal issues. If so, that only will benefit the rest of the candidates.
The real question now is whether or not we will see some of the marginal candidates drop out now? I cannot imagine Kermit Marsh running at this point. What would he gain from coming in near the bottom?
“What would he gain from coming in near the bottom?”
Name ID, I guess.
Why do you think I ran? Hahahahahaha. Just kidding, it was other reasons…
Actually, it was Tom who inspired me to run for the 69th.
Que viva la mujer!!