FINAL! Wagner Wins Supe 3 Special Election Over Loretta &c.


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Here are the election-night totals, as they tote!

[Note: I tuned in too late to see the 8:00 results, and they turn out to be very important in explaining what came later.  The “8:00” heading appears way down below. — GAD]

9:30!

Here are the results at of 9:30 p.m., which include lots of vote-by-mail ballots and a smattering (under 2,500) of “day of” ballots.

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 172 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 20,795 40.3%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 18,987 36.8%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 3,883 7.5%
LARRY BALES 3,371 6.5%
DEBORAH PAULY 2,898 5.6%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,171 2.3%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 519 1.0%

It’s not over — hell, there are still a few days for late VBMs to show up, unless some weird rule prevents that — but at this point it looks pretty close between Wagner and Sanchez.  Kris Murray is in fourth place behind Wagner, Murray, and wherever she thought she’d be at this point.  (OK, let’s all it third place.)

At this point, you may be wondering who Larry Bales is, given that he’s running ahead of Deborah Pauly and just 500-odd votes behind Murray.  Good question.  Here’s his candidate statement:

I am a Viet Nam Veteran; my family has served in every United States Conflict including the Revolutionary War of Independence.

While working for the County of Orange, I exposed political corruption and unfair treatment of taxpayers that eventually resulted in 45 indictments and 45 convictions of corrupted elected officials.

Among them, a U S Congressman, the first one to be removed from U S Congress since the Civil War. My efforts, in stopping unfair and illegal property tax practices, directly contributed to the passage of Proposition 13. I support Prop 13!

I am against the “SPLIT ROLL” Property Tax being proposed. It will raise YOUR taxes. Our Commercial and Industrial business community already suffers from unfair competition and are either moving out of state or going out of business. Lost jobs.

I continue to be concerned about our election process and 2016 exposed and brought forward election fraud charges against YOUR former Assessor Webster Guillory, resulting in 5 election felony charges.

I have NOT and I will NOT accept SPECIAL INTEREST money or untraceable DARK MONEY from special interest. Special Interest and Dark Money corrupts YOUR representation to the point where, WE THE PEOPLE, no longer exists.

I support legal immigration and election laws.

Larry Balesb

In other words: he probably took votes from Loretta — almost as many as Murray took from Wagner.  Or at least that’s going to be my story….

10:00

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 206 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 6,027 1.8%
Early Ballots Cast 0 0.0%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 50,597 14.8%
Total Ballots Cast 56,624 16.6%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 206 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 22,967 40.7%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 20,956 37.2%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 4,163 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,480 6.2%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,100 5.5%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,192 2.1%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 534 0.9%

That’s 34 more precincts in, only 25 left, and Wagner’s lead fell from 1,808 to — whoops, make that ROSE to 2,011.

That is not the most encouraging thing that could have happened.  At this point, it looks quite clear that Loretta will not be leading at the end of the vote counting (which ain’t going to go very late, making me doubt whether I should have had that big bottle of Mountain Dew.

10:30 —  Final Election Night Update

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 9,834 2.9%
Early Ballots Cast 0 0.0%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 50,597 14.8%
Total Ballots Cast 60,431 17.7%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 25,017 41.6%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 22,037 36.6%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 4,496 7.5%
LARRY BALES 3,590 6.0%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,309 5.5%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,204 2.0%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 536 0.9%

With all precincts in — but not with their final figures! — Wagner’s lead fell from 2.011 to — whoops, make that ROSE to 2.980.

This is not what Loretta fans wanted to see.  But, this is probably Wagner’s high-water mark.  It’s time to play … What’s Left to Count?

Here’s the Election “WL2C?” Night report:

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 161Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 161

Total Estimated Left to Count: 0

OK, that’s not very helpful.  But the main thing is that they can’t estimate the number that really matters, which is: how many VBM ballots are still coming in?

And the answer to that is: not likely enough to let Loretta pick up 3,000 votes, given that she and Wagner combined will probably get no more than 80% of them  and she’d need to absolutely demolish him in order to win.

What I don’t see here is any mention of provisional ballots counted, but maybe they’re just not a thing anymore, or maybe they were all counted really quickly.

Well, who knows.  When Loretta gets 80% of the 5,000 ballots that come in tomorrow, I’ll be happy to eat my words.

(So did Kris Murray pull out of the race without anyone telling me?)

8:00 — What I Had Missed

Here were the first tranche of votes reported, all (if all went according to form) VBM ballots that had arrived prior to Election Day.  Though, who knows?

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term

Under Votes: 189
Over Votes: 32
Complete Precincts: 0 of 229

DONALD P. WAGNER 19,955 39.99%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 18,401 36.88%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 3,794 7.60%
LARRY BALES 3,314 6.64%
DEBORAH PAULY 2,762 5.54%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,160 2.32%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 514 1.03%

In other words, Wagner kept on padding his lead all night, but he also started out with a lead of 1.554, so it’s Loretta lost both by mail and at the polls.  Maybe there’s a way home for her, but I sure don’t see it.

It looks like we may be back in Orange County, at least where there’s no Trump on the ballot.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 9,954 2.9%
Early Ballots Cast 517 0.2%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 58,768 17.2%
Total Ballots Cast 69,239 20.3%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 28,902 41.9%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 25,489 37.0%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 5,130 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,830 5.6%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,720 5.4%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,314 1.9%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 584 0.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Wagner’s lead is up to 3,413. which matters more than the drop from 5.0% to 4.9%.  All of the known ballots left to count are provisionals (to which will be added unknown amounts of stragglers over the next two days.)  But the late vote by mails obviously aren’t helping Loretta much, and not all of the provisionals will count, nor will they all be for her. nor will they all not be for him, nor (even if they all counted and were all for him) would they exceed his lead.

We’re calling it for Wagner.

THURSDAY, 5:00 (actually 8:30 for us)

Just because we’ve called it doesn’t mean that we’ve stopped working!

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 10,493 3.1%
Early Ballots Cast 517 0.2%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 59,583 17.4%
Total Ballots Cast 70,593 20.7%

 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 29,420 41.8%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 26,096 37.1%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 5,220 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,876 5.5%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,764 5.4%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,341 1.9%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 592 0.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any
Top 

On Wednesday (not, as I had for some reason written, Monday), we had 69,239 ballots cast, 9,954 at precincts, 517 in early voting, and 58,768  by mail.  The early voting figures, as one would hope, have stayed the same.  We’re now at 10,493 precinct ballots,  a rise of 569, which I think are all mostly provisional ballots.  Vote by mail is at 59,583, a rise of 815, which would all be stragglers.  That bumped turnout from 20.3% to 20.7%.

There are 1,573 ballots — that we know of, meaning not VBM stragglers — left to count.  These include 119 VBMs left at the polls, 1412 provisionals, 17 paper ballots, 12 Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day, and 13 conditional voter registrations.  (Yes, that does add up.)

Even if Loretta gets all of them, and they somehow count twice apiece, that will not exceed Wagner’s 3,324 vote (or 4.7%) lead, so if any other publications you are reading hasn’t yet called the race it’s because they either are lazy, befuddled, or just can’t face it.  But we’ll keep reporting anyway, because we care that much about posterity.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE (NONE THIS WEEKEND)

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 11,715 3.4%
Early Ballots Cast 526 0.2%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 59,794 17.5%
Total Ballots Cast 72,035 21.1%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 30,116 42.0%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 26,598 37.1%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 5,331 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,903 5.4%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,838 5.3%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,358 1.9%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 597 0.8%

Loretta is now down by 3,518.  There will be no further update until Monday.

(Note to the VOC — seriously, no one is going to look down on you for calling it now.)

Wanger went up 0.2% while Loretta stayed where she was., meaning that he’s almost up to the magic 5% figure — and when I say “magic” I mean “pretty much pointless.”  Wagner picked up 696 votes to Loretta’s 502.

Dep Pauley made a charge on Larry Bales for fourth place on Wednesday, which I mention only because it tells you what sorts of people may be casting VBM on Election  Day (or maybe one or two days before.  Late, anyway.)  Her deficit went from 281 to 110.  On Thursday, that deficit was at 112; today, it was down to 65.  Given the small numbers left to count — see below — it’s certain that she won’t get bragging rights by finishing fourth.  (Note for future research: Does finishing fourth actually confer “bragging rights”?)  Kris Murray picked up 111 votes, so she’s really safely in third place.

What’s Left to Vote Going Into the Weekend?

Well, late VBM ballots did have until 8 or 10 p.m. (not looking it up) to arrive, so there may be a few more, mailed perhaps from rural Alabama or Alaska by people who really are “absentee.”

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 11,352Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 11,304

Total Estimated Left to Count: 48

Of these, 17 are election day paper ballots, 19 are already-received eligible VBM ballots, and 12 are provisionals.

I think that it’s time to reproduce the OCROV’s “Final Ballots to Count” boilerplate:

Final Ballots to Count

Elections always come down to small batches of ballots to count. The following examples details how complex and detailed the final ballot counting becomes – this is critical to ensure that every single ballot is accounted for and included in the final vote totals.

DAMAGED BALLOTS
Damaged ballots are paper ballots where the barcode has been compromised in some way, preventing the scanning of the ballot. Examples include a tear, pen marks, foreign material (such as food stains, smudges, etc.), or a fade in the barcode itself. Each of these ballots must be duplicated onto new ballot paper by hand.

UNSCANNED BALLOTS
A ballot unscanned is a ballot that did not scan on the first pass. Causes for this include issues in the barcode or a misfeed on a scanner. Each of these ballots must be located among the entire batch of scanned ballots (a needle in a haystack). Once found we must attempt to scan the ballot a second time and if it still will not scan we must duplicate it by hand.

ORPHAN BALLOTS
An orphan ballot is a ballot that is returned without the full ballot (for example, a single page of a two page ballot). These ballots are not scanned in the early stages of the ballot scanning – we must wait to see if the voter returns the second page. Following Election Night we identify any orphan ballots and locate them among all of the ballots scanned. The orphan is then scanned into the actual tally.

I imagine that Neal Kelley is going to be in there this weekend with maybe a few salaried employees doing this final cleanup, along with pizza and carbonated beverages.  Could be wrong.

Final note: the actual turnout is 21.08728%, rounded to 21.1%, so those of you who had 21.2% in the betting pool: I’m sad to inform you that it would take 72,250 total votes — 215 more, in other words– to push past 21.15%.  So if the rules are that you have to be exact to one digit after the decimal, you’re not going to make it.  Knock on a few doors next time!

MONDAY’S UNFINAL RESULTS!

Here are the charts from Monday night:

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 11,727 3.4%
Early Ballots Cast 526 0.2%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 60,015 17.6%
Total Ballots Cast 72,268 21.2%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 30,227 42.0%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 26,690 37.1%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 5,338 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,909 5.4%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,847 5.3%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,366 1.9%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 597 0.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

What’s Left to Count?

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 11,551Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 11,517

Total Estimated Left to Count: 34

Oh, and what sorts of ballots are they?

3 Vote-by-Mail
12 Provisionals
6 VBMs returned at the polls
5 Election Day paper
8 Eligible Later-Arriving VBM
0 Conditional Voter Registrations

Every election, here at the end, when those last few ballots spread across so many categories remain uncounted, I wonder:

“Why is Neal Kelley doing this to me?  Does he WANT to promote OCD?”

And every election, I come up with the same likely answer:

“There must a betting pool as to what day counting will finish, and he’s manipulating it.”

Note: no, I don’t really believe that.  Hopefully things end on Tuesday.

TUESDAY: 6 BALLOTS LEFT

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 11,727 3.4%
Early Ballots Cast 526 0.2%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 60,043 17.6%
Total Ballots Cast 72,296 21.2%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 30,239 42.0%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 26,704 37.1%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 5,338 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,911 5.4%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,847 5.3%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,366 1.9%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 597 0.8%

Those of you who picked 72,299 plus or minus 3 in your pool, we have good news!  There are only 6 ballots left uncounted, all later-arriving eligible VBMs, so you win!

What we’re actually looking for, and want complete results from before we take on, is the final SOV, or “Statement of Votes.”  But what the hell — if we’re going to be thwarted, so be it.  You can go here and scroll to the last three pages — grand totals by district — if you want a head start at figuring out the subtleties of where the candidates did well and where not.  (Hint: Loretta did well back where she served as as Congresswoman, which may have been a big hint had it been heeded in advance.)  Top turnout medals go to Silverado (gold), Panorama Heights (silver), and East Tustin (bronze), if you discount the handful of votes from the Brea Olinda School District (which are in precinct 29289 — composed of Iron Bark Way and Linden Lane in Yorba Linda.)

Yes, you can’t wait for more!

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20, 5:00 P.M.

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 341,604
Precinct Registration 341,604
Precinct Ballots Cast 11,727 3.4%
Early Ballots Cast 526 0.2%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 60,049 17.6%
Total Ballots Cast 72,302 21.2%

Top 

County Supervisor Third District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 229 of 229
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER 30,240 42.0%
LORETTA SANCHEZ 26,708 37.1%
KRISTINE “KRIS” MURRAY 5,338 7.4%
LARRY BALES 3,912 5.4%
DEBORAH PAULY 3,847 5.3%
KIM-THY “KATIE” HOANG BAYLISS 1,366 1.9%
KATHERINE DAIGLE 597 0.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any
Top 

And … scene!

Loretta picks up 4, Wagner 1, and Bales 1.  Wagner wins by 3,532.

We’ll check out the SOV later, maybe, for signs of what it may portend for the northern hill districts in 2020.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 (in violation of Roberts Rules) when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Expelled from DPOC in October 2018 (in violation of Roberts Rules) for having endorsed Spitzer over Rackauckas -- which needed to be done. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. One of his daughters co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)