SD-37 — OK, Don Wagner May Really Want to Concede to John Moorlach Now


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Moorlach - sky fell plate 8-28-07

For John Moorlach to lose the SD-37 election at this point would pretty much take an Act of God.  That’s not the way to bet.  The sky fell Chicken Little’s way once again, but this time it fell on Don Wagner.

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 491,852
Precinct Registration 491,852
Precinct Ballots Cast 10,375 2.1%
Early Ballots Cast 0 0.0%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 66,746 13.6%
Total Ballots Cast 77,121 15.7%
STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 38,111 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 33,403 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,619 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,695 2.2%

By How Much is Moorlach Leading?

For purposes of determining whether this race is over, one needs to view the race as a contest between two candidates: Moorlach and Not Moorlach.  If Not Moorlach has more votes, we go to a May runoff.  Here are those results:

MOORLACH:            38,111

NOT MOORLACH:  37,717

MARGIN:                    394 votes

VALID VOTES:          75,828

38,111/75,828:            0.50259798491  [that’s for the benefit of Chris Nguyen]

Now it’s conceivable, I suppose, that 395 vote-by-mail ballots with Tuesday postmarks could come in tomorrow marked for Don Wagner, Naz Namazi, or Louise Stewardson and none for Moorlach — or, 1,395 for Not Moorlach and 1,000 for Moorlach; it’s all the same — but that seems about as unlikely as UCI’s Anteaters winning the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, not only this year but for the next ten.

What’s left to count?

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 8045

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 8045

Total estimated number of ballots left to count: 0

Nothing, except for however many ballots may trickle in tomorrow.

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 550

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 550

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 3956

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 3956

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 0

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 686

Total provisionals counted: 686

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 0

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 181

Total election day paper ballots counted: 181

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 2672

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 2672

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

 Who picked up how many votes today?

[To come]

Will there be a recount?

In my more mischievous-to-malicious moments, I hope that Wagner will spend some money on it — but I’ll say No.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 (in violation of Roberts Rules) when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Expelled from DPOC in October 2018 (in violation of Roberts Rules) for having endorsed Spitzer over Rackauckas -- which needed to be done. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. One of his daughters co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)