It is hard to take SAUSD Trustee Rosie “God is mad at Santa Ana” Avila seriously, but the total number of votes she garnered in the primary yesterday, for the 47th Congressional District, was somewhat close to what the incumbent, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, tallied (see the graphic above).
If you look at the numbers in the other contested congressional districts in Orange County, no other race came nearly as close. For example, take a look at the results in the 42nd Congressional District (see the graphic below).
The results weren’t close. Even if you add all of the Democratic votes cast, that comes only to about 7,000 votes, whereas the incumbent Republican, Gary Miller, netted over 22,000 votes. The Democratic nominee, Ed Chau, has NO CHANCE at victory in the general.
Let’s take a look at one more race. In the 46th Congressional District, the combined Democratic votes were about 6,500, but the incumbent Republican, Dana Rohrabacher, and his challenger Ron St. John, netted over 29,000 votes. The Democratic nominee, Debbie Cook, appears to have no chance in November.
All that said, it does appear that Avila is withing striking range of Sanchez, over in the 47th Congressional District. And that is not something I would have predicted. Of course this was a very low turnout election. I am sure November’s results will be far different. But today Avila can feel somewhat hopeful, while Chau and Cook have an uphill mountain to climb.
Art –
I was surprised at how low the turnout was and a lot of candidates ran unopposed. Remember, the Democrats have been registering voters like crazy and I guarantee you they’ll come out in force for Loretta in the general. Same for Debbie Cook.
As far as Chau, I think if he didn’t spend so much time going left in the primary, he would have had a shot. The only way he can even come close now is by getting even more registrations and having an incredible GOTV effort! Those union endorsements are going to kill him in that district.
SMS
Once again Art Pedroza proves he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Democratic voters in the 47th were faced with ONE choice – Loretta. And Republicans had ONE choice – Rosie. So, if anything, the numbers reflect turnout and not a true voter preference.
Comparing it to CD42 where there was a contested primary is bizarre. And the number Art shows only includes the OC portion of that district. A multi-county district, the complete results are shown on the CA Secretary of State website.
Measure D, Measure G. No wonder campaigns run AWAY from Art’s offers of help.
There’s about 18% DTS registration in the 47th CD. If a candidate can turnout and garner GOP, independent, and Vietnamese voters, he/she will defeat Sanchez.
Art
I have to agree with #2. First of all we did not have an open primary. Also, almost twice as many Rep’s voted as did Dem’s. That being said, Loretta still won in a landslide percentage wise.
One of the things that we can conclude is that Rep’s voters still don’t know what kind of an idiot R. Avila is and how corrupt the entity she represents is also. Why the hell would they vote for this crazy person, and much less pass another money grab of a bond?
We can see now that the Rep’s in the 47th CD are NOT any more educated than the Dem’s
The last few elections the ROV posted a “mapping system” showing the vote totals by precinct. The mapping system has -0- in all fields for all precincts in all cites.
That is too bad, I liked to verify that the total votes that left my precinct are equal to the votes the ROV included in the totals.
70 voters, out of 1,710 4 %
(not including mail-in ballots)
Ballot summary 2 precincts downtown Santa Ana. vote totals
……………..xxx52 ….xxx86….. total
Dem ……………31…….19………50
Rep……………..3……..6……….9
Grn …………….2……..0……….2
np………………2……..3……….5
Totals………….38…….28………66
CD 47 & AD 69 Dem
L.Sanchez ………29…….19………48
S.Solorio ………28 ……19………47
CD 47 & AD 69 Rep
R.Avila………….3……..6……….9
C Mangeks………..3……..6……… 9
1st super………..34……26………60
98………………37……27………64
99………………37……26………63
G……………….37……27………64
Of the 70 votes, 4 were blue and are not included in vote summary.
……………….Yes..or..No…….total
G……………….53……11………64
99 ……………..34……29………63
98………………20……44………64
Vote by mail are not counted at poling places.
I expect that 2/3 of the final votes for these precincts will come from the mail-in’s and dropped off ballots.
Quang,
If an oppenent can get All the DTS, All the Vietnamese, and All The Republicans, then Monkeys Might Fly Out His Ass!
Loretta is a proven vote getter with Vietnamese, Republicans, And Declined to State Voters. Put down the crack pipe and return to reality. Just because you are a successful businessman and military veteran doesn’t mean you can run for Congress. Hoa Van Tran and Ron Shepston are two prime examples of military veterans who failed miserably running for office. Quang go write a book, work on your website, hang out with your friend Assemblymember Van Tran. Even Mr. all powerful Van Tran got his hat handed to him yesterday (which shows the VN vote is not a monolith as you dare to dream) I am so tired of seeing people with delusions of grandeur consider taking on Loretta when anyone with half a loaf of common sense realizes that they are barking up the wrong tree. Ask around. Bob Dornan, Alexandria Coronado, Tan Nguyen, Jeff Chavez, and Gloria Tuchman all had your dreamer’s dream and LOST.
CQT- God is mad at you for your statement.