Will They Pull Through? OC’s 13 closest races!

By
Vern Nelson
– November 5, 2026Posted in: "The OC", 2026 elections, Fresh Juice


We’ll be checking on each of these races every day at 5 SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO! These are the closest ones in the OC (at least the closest ones we care much about.)

State Senate 36 – will CHRIS DUNCAN (D) stay ahead of incumbent Tony Strickland (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Duncan 0.4% ahead (he has been losing in OC but winning in the LA part of the district)
  • Wednesday night – Duncan up 0.6% (50.3 to 48.7)
  • Thursday night – Duncan continues his surge, now at 50.6 to 49.4. 3739 votes ahead. (Although Strickland is STILL 1.3 ahead in stoopid OC.) Should we be calling this for Duncan yet? Let’s do it (probably) tomorrow!
  • Friday night –

Assembly 68 – will JESSIE LOPEZ (progressive D) catch & pass David Penaloza (vendido D)?

  • Tuesday night – Jessie was behind over 7% (46.3 to 53.7)
  • Wednesday night – Jessie is behind only 4% (48-52)
  • Thursday night – Jessie continues her surge! Now she is 1.8% behind David. 49.1% to 50.9%. David 39,544 to Jessie 38,089. This is probably the race we care about the most. This and the next one.
  • Friday night –

Assembly 72 – will CHRIS KLUWE (D) catch BACK up to and pass Gracey Van Der Mark (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Chris was 6 points ahead! Briefly. (53% to 47%)
  • Wednesday night – Chris is behind 1.6% (49.2 to 50.8)
  • Thursday night – Chris steadily moving behind, just under 1% behind Gracey. 49.53% to 50.47%. Could happen!
  • Friday night –

Assembly 70 – will PAULA SWIFT (D) catch BACK up to and pass Tri Ta (R)?

  • Tuesday night – it was 50-50!
  • Wednesday night – Paula is behind 1% (49.5 to 50.5)
  • Thursday night – Paula is slowly gaining as well. She is now behind 0.6%. (49.73% to 50.27%)
  • Friday night –

North OC CCD – will JESUS SILVA (ok D) catch up with & pass Paulette Chaffee (crooked rich D)?

  • Tuesday night – Jesus was 2.8% behind Paulette – 27% to 29.8%
  • Wednesday night – Jesus at 1.8% behind Paulette – 27% to 28.8%
  • Thursday night – Jesus is 1.3% behind Paulette.
  • Friday night –

Rancho Santiago CCD – will BEA MENDOZA (D) catch up with & pass Daisy Tong (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Bea was behind 9% – 45.5 to 54.5
  • Wednesday night – Bea behind 4.6 – 47.7 to 52.3
  • Thursday night – Bea behind 4.4% – 47.8% to 52.2%. Moving kind of slow now.
  • Friday night –

OC Supervisor District 4 – will CONNOR TRAUT (D) stay ahead of Tim Shaw (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Connor was ahead 8.8% – 52.7 to 45.6, NS, then later Tim was a LITTLE ahead.
  • Wednesday night – Connor was back ahead by only 0.6% – 50.3 to 49.7
  • Thursday night – Connor’s surge continues! 1.6% ahead of Tim. 50.8% to 49.2%. FEEL THE TRAUTMENTUM! We’ll probably call this tomorrow too.
  • Friday night –

Aliso Viejo district 3 – will MARIE TSAASAN (D) stay ahead of incumbent Garrett Dwyer (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Marie was ahead almost 11%, 54.4 to 45.6… then later she was TEN VOTES BEHIND! (very low turnout.)
  • Wednesday night – Marie is back ahead, by ONLY FOUR VOTES! (50.1% to 49.9%)
  • Thursday night – Marie is now up BY 36 VOTES. These are sure tiny districts in a tiny town – the votes are Marie 1,122 (50.8%) to Garrett 1,086 (49.2%). Marie will probably be on the Council, on the Democrat minority, but at least Tiffany A won’t be up there holding off MAGA by herself!
  • Friday night –

Huntington Beach – will BEN DAVIS (D) remain in the top 4 and get onto Council as the only Dem?

  • Tuesday night – THREE Dems were in the top 4, with Ben at top… gradually R’s caught up
  • Wednesday night – Ben the only Dem left, at #4, and with one Brian Thienes (probably R) only 100 votes behind him.
  • Thursday night – the danger for Democrats is if a Republican passed up Ben to be #4. But tonight it looks like if anyone passes Ben it’ll be fellow Dem Erin Spivey, which fine. In 4th now, Ben with 27.354 votes. In 5th, Erin with 27,304. In SIXTH, Brian with 26,944.
  • Friday night –

Irvine district 1 – will MELINDA LIU (D) catch back up with & pass John Park (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Melinda was ahead, 40% to John’s 37.5%.
  • Wednesday night – Melinda is behind by 1%, at 38.5% to John’s 39.5%
  • Thursday night – Melinda’s AHEAD! By 0.4%. Melinda 39.4 to John 39%. Only a 43-vote difference!
  • Friday night –

Santa Ana Mayor – will progressive DAN SHIMELL (D) catch up with & pass police union tool Valerie Amezcua?

  • Tuesday night – DAN was 13% behind, everyone was filled with despair!
  • Wednesday night – Dan is only 5% behind, at 40.5% to Valerie’s 45.6%-
  • Thursday night – WOW – Dan is less than 2% behind! Dan 42.3%, Valerie 44.15%. GO DAN!!!
  • Friday night –

Tustin Mayor – will LETITIA CLARK (D) catch BACK up with & pass Austin Lumbard (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Letitia was ahead 0.6% – 50.3 to Austin’s 49.7.
  • Wednesday night – Letitia behind by 1.4% – 49.3 to Austin’s 50.7.
  • Thursday night – Letitia ahead now! But not by much! BY 24 VOTES! LC 50.1% to AL 49.9%
  • Friday night –

Westminster Mayor – will CARLOS MANZO (D) catch up with & pass Charlie Chi Nguyen (R)?

  • Tuesday night – Carlos was behind 2.4% – 37.7% to Charlie’s 40.1%.
  • Wednesday night – Carlos behind 0.5% – 38.5% to Charlie’s 39% – that’s ONLY 111 VOTES!
  • Thursday night – CARLOS IS AHEAD! Arriba! Adelante! Hell yeah! Ahead by… oh. TWO VOTES. But it’s going in the right direction for sure!
  • Friday night –

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About Vern Nelson

Greatest pianist/composer in Orange County, and official political troubadour of Anaheim and most other OC towns. Regularly makes solo performances, sometimes with his savage-jazz band The Vern Nelson Problem. Reach at vernpnelson@gmail.com, or 714-235-VERN.