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We skipped the Monday afternoon report because (1) not much had changed and (2) we were too busy to post even if it had. That delay allows us to finish up the the unofficial “final” results from San Diego County as well. This is finished. Finished, that is, except for any litigation, which is very unlikely in all cases and extremely unlikely in all but a handful. It’s reasonably conceivable only in SAUSD and for Measure OO in San Clemente, but the former isn’t really close enough and I’m speculating that the latter probably doesn’t have any interest who would fund it.
Now we can finally call the rest of the races and celebrate a momentous election.
The whiteboard says: “Doing the People’s Business since 11:30 this morning.” Get ready for something different, Sacramento!
| Registration and Turnout |
| Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668 |
| Reg/Turnout | Percentage | |
| Total Registered Voters | 1,535,967 | |
| Precinct Registration | 1,535,967 | |
| Precinct Ballots Cast | 516,801 | 33.6% |
| Early Ballots Cast | 27,554 | 1.8% |
| Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast | 695,050 | 45.3% |
| Total Ballots Cast | 1,239,405 | 80.7% |
Headlines:
- Orange County is done, as are each of the four counties with which we share federal or state legislative seats
- CA-49: Darrell Issa beat Doug Applegate by a miserable 1,621 votes
- SD-29: Josh Newman beat Ling-Ling Chang by 2,498 votes — more than 50% greater than Issa’s margin
- yes, it’s too late to make the millions of dollars you once could have gotten with that bet
SAUSD, 3rd spot: Alfonzo Alvarez beat Angie Cano by 39 votes — out of 30,469 cast between them- Supervisor District 1: Andrew Do beat Michele Martinez by 648 votes
- Anaheim District 1: Denise Barnes beat Steve Lodge by 291 votes, Leonard Lahtinen by 788 votes, and Mark Daniels by 1,745 votes
- Anaheim District 3: Dr. Jose Moreno beat Jordan Brandman by 72 votes, with the two Latinas running to siphon votes from him getting a combined 1,793
- Measure OO: San Clemente’s Hotel Tax lost by 8 votes
BEFORE:
| Issa | 47,672 | 108,011 | 155,683 | 50.2976% | |
| Applegate | 31,100 | 122,741 | 153,841 | 49.7024% |
FINAL:
| Issa | 47,673 | 108,215 | 155,888 | 50.2613% | |
| Applegate | 31,100 | 123,167 | 154,267 | 49.7387% |
Issa won by a tad over half a percent. Northern San Diego County must truly hate our guts. And I have to admit a mistake here: it had been a long time since I had looked at the map of this district, and I thought that it contain four South County cities, Sam Clemente, Dana Point, and Rancho Santa Margarita. It does not include RSM. It does include little Ladera Ranch and “Ortega,” the term used for unincorporated and not even census-area’d lower East Orange County, plus a handful of votes from Trabuco and Talega..
Take away the almost 10,500 ballots from Ladera Ranch alone … and Applegate wins by about 1,000.
| STATE SENATOR 37th District |
| Completed Precincts: 569 of 569 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * JOHN M.W. MOORLACH (REP) | 228,480 | 57.0% |
| ARI GRAYSON (DEM) | 172,455 | 43.0% |
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any
BEFORE:
| Chang | 117,444 | 15,578 | 24,709 | 157,731 | 49.6073% |
| Newman | 120,628 | 13,236 | 26,364 | 160,228 | 50.3927% |
FINAL:
| Chang | 117,445 | 15,578 | 24,709 | 157,732 | 49.6072% |
| Newman | 120,630 | 13,236 | 26,364 | 160,230 | 50.3928% |
Newman totally messed with my OCD here, winning by just under 2,500 votes and just under 0.80%. That’s easily forgiven, though, because this is one of those races that truly can prove to be transformative in OC. Newman comes from outside of the Orange County Democratic power structure — the only recent comparison to a OC politician in Congress or the state legislature that occurs to me is to the (admittedly more traditionally liberal) Joe Dunn. Sharon Quirk-Silva doesn’t quite qualify as such, as she manages to keep one foot on the ground in both camps, but between them one can glimpse the long-term future of the OC Democratic brand in a demographically changing county.
| SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 64 of 64 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS | 24,568 | 21.2% |
| RIGO RODRIGUEZ | 21,894 | 18.9% |
| ALFONSO ALVAREZ | 15,254 | 13.1% |
| ANGIE CANO | 15,215 | 13.1% |
| MARK MCLOUGHLIN | 13,645 | 11.8% |
| BRUCE THOMAS BAUER | 13,554 | 11.7% |
| BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA | 11,931 | 10.3% |
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any
The vote counting in the race for the third seat in this election defied the laws of political physics, as Iglesias’s protege Cano started out way ahead of Democrats Alvarez and McLoughlin (who shared a slate with Rodriguez) and Bauer (who did not ) Suddenly, one day, Alvarez surged ahead of the other trailing Dems, then ahead of Cano … and then Cano suddenly sprang back to life started to catch up, like something out of a horror movie. The race ended just in time for him. With weird things happening in the SAUSD in relation to charter schools, the may turn out to be a very consequential victory.
| County Supervisor 1st District |
| Completed Precincts: 209 of 209 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * ANDREW DO | 76,211 | 50.2% |
| MICHELE MARTINEZ | 75,563 | 49.8% |
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any
Martinez didn’t seek out this race; she was recruited when Vince Sarmiento, in particular, passed on it late in the game. Martinez had an advantage that Democrats rarely will — dissent (to put it mildly) within the Vietnamese community — but even taking that into consideration she acquitted herself well. The danger is that based on this success she and Sarmiento both decide to get into the Mayor’s race against Jose Solorio when Miguel Pulido is termed out and split the “relatively good side” vote. They will have to work it out among themselves.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
I certainly understand why the anti-subsidy side could not prevent all of Barnes, Daniels, Perez, Van Stark, and Carvajal from running — it’s because that’s what we do. How Disney managed to allow both Lodge and Lahtinen in the race, I don’t know that I will ever understand. But, to whoever screwed up — thanks! And I hope that you are enjoying your time on the team planning for the very eventual construction of of Disney Siberia.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Don’t pity Brandman; he still has most of the money people in OC Democratic circles propelling him forward to the next race, whatever it will be. (I wonder how he feels when he looks at Lou Correa right now….) No one will likely be watching the drawing of straws for which just-filled Anaheim district seat will come up again in 2018 more closely than he will. If you want to say a prayer for someone, make it Dr. Moreno. Given this success he now faces the Herculean task of building a winning and lasting political reform movement in the city. If anyone is up to the task, he is.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
So how come “NO” came back so strongly at a time when one would expect provisional ballots to be the ones counted? Does it make you wonder how many voters are, well, registered in San Clemente hotels?
Total Ballots Left to Count Counted
Total eligible ballots counted (after Election Day): 416,994
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Counted
Total eligible of vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,806
Provisionals Counted
Total eligible provisionals counted: 130,300 (seriously? that round of a number?)
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Counted
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,674
Election Day Paper Ballots Counted
Total eligible election day paper ballots counted: 27,014
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Counted
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day counted: 14,200
And so, until June 2018, we’re done counting vote for now. But much more analysis of the election and its implications is still to come!
*”What kind of government did you give us Mr. Franklin!” “A Republic……if you can
keep it……..”
“You got to know when to hold ’em….know when to fold ’em….know when to walk away…know when to run…..you never count your money while your sittin at the table…there’ll be time enough for countin….when the dealings done!” Kenny Rogers said that.
Next time……then!