2016’s Unsettled Races, Tues. Dec. 6 Results: No More Waiting to Bear, It’s All Settled Except for the Litigation!

.

.

.

We skipped the Monday afternoon report because (1) not much had changed and (2) we were too busy to post even if it had.  That delay allows us to finish up the the unofficial “final” results from San Diego County as well.  This is finished.  Finished, that is, except for any litigation, which is very unlikely in all cases and extremely unlikely in all but a handful.  It’s reasonably conceivable only in SAUSD and for Measure OO in San Clemente, but the former isn’t really close enough and I’m speculating that the latter probably doesn’t have any interest who would fund it.

Now we can finally call the rest of the races and celebrate a momentous election.

The whiteboard says: "Doing the People's Business since 11:30 this morning"

The whiteboard says: “Doing the People’s Business since 11:30 this morning.”  Get ready for something different, Sacramento!

 

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 1,535,967
Precinct Registration 1,535,967
Precinct Ballots Cast 516,801 33.6%
Early Ballots Cast 27,554 1.8%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 695,050 45.3%
Total Ballots Cast 1,239,405 80.7%

Headlines:

  • Orange County is done, as are each of the four counties with which we share federal or state legislative seats
  • CA-49: Darrell Issa beat Doug Applegate by a miserable 1,621 votes
  • SD-29: Josh Newman beat Ling-Ling Chang by 2,498 votes — more than 50% greater than Issa’s margin
    • yes, it’s too late to make the millions of dollars you once could have gotten with that bet
  • SAUSD, 3rd spot: Alfonzo Alvarez beat Angie Cano by 39 votes — out of 30,469 cast between them
  • Supervisor District 1: Andrew Do beat Michele Martinez by 648 votes
  • Anaheim District 1: Denise Barnes beat Steve Lodge by 291 votes, Leonard Lahtinen by 788 votes, and Mark Daniels by 1,745 votes
  • Anaheim District 3: Dr. Jose Moreno beat Jordan Brandman by 72 votes, with the two Latinas running to siphon votes from him getting a combined 1,793
  • Measure OO: San Clemente’s Hotel Tax lost by 8 votes
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th District
Completed Precincts: 102 of 102
Vote Count Percentage
* DARRELL ISSA (REP) 47,672 60.5%
DOUG APPLEGATE (DEM) 31,100 39.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Issa 47,672 108,011 155,683 50.2976%
Applegate 31,100 122,741 153,841 49.7024%

FINAL:

Issa 47,673 108,215 155,888 50.2613%
Applegate 31,100 123,167 154,267 49.7387%

Issa won by a tad over half a percent.  Northern San Diego County must truly hate our guts.  And I have to admit a mistake here: it had been a long time since I had looked at the map of this district, and I thought that it contain four South County cities, Sam Clemente, Dana Point, and Rancho Santa Margarita.  It does not include RSM.  It does include little Ladera Ranch and “Ortega,” the term used for unincorporated and not even census-area’d lower East Orange County, plus a handful of votes from Trabuco and Talega..

Take away the almost 10,500 ballots from Ladera Ranch alone … and Applegate wins by about 1,000.

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District
Completed Precincts: 569 of 569
Vote Count Percentage
* JOHN M.W. MOORLACH (REP) 228,480 57.0%
ARI GRAYSON (DEM) 172,455 43.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Chang 117,444 15,578 24,709 157,731 49.6073%
Newman 120,628 13,236 26,364 160,228 50.3927%

FINAL:

Chang 117,445 15,578 24,709 157,732 49.6072%
Newman 120,630 13,236 26,364 160,230 50.3928%

Newman totally messed with my OCD here, winning by just under 2,500 votes and just under 0.80%.  That’s easily forgiven, though, because this is one of those races that truly can prove to be transformative in OC.  Newman comes from outside of the Orange County Democratic power structure — the only recent comparison to a OC politician in Congress or the state legislature that occurs to me is to the (admittedly more traditionally liberal) Joe Dunn.  Sharon Quirk-Silva doesn’t quite qualify as such, as she manages to keep one foot on the ground in both camps, but between them one can glimpse the long-term future of the OC Democratic brand in a demographically changing county.

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 24,568 21.2%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 21,894 18.9%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 15,254 13.1%
ANGIE CANO 15,215 13.1%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 13,645 11.8%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 13,554 11.7%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 11,931 10.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

The vote counting in the race for the third seat in this election defied the laws of political physics, as Iglesias’s protege Cano started out way ahead of Democrats Alvarez and McLoughlin (who shared a slate with Rodriguez) and Bauer (who did not )  Suddenly, one day, Alvarez surged ahead of the other trailing Dems, then ahead of Cano … and then Cano suddenly sprang back to life started to catch up, like something out of a horror movie.  The race ended just in time for him.  With weird things happening in the SAUSD in relation to charter schools, the may turn out to be a very consequential victory.

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 76,211 50.2%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 75,563 49.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Martinez didn’t seek out this race; she was recruited when Vince Sarmiento, in particular, passed on it late in the game.  Martinez had an advantage that Democrats rarely will — dissent (to put it mildly) within the Vietnamese community — but even taking that into consideration she acquitted herself well.  The danger is that based on this success she and Sarmiento both decide to get into the Mayor’s race against Jose Solorio when Miguel Pulido is termed out and split the “relatively good side” vote.  They will have to work it out among themselves.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,646 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,355 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,858 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,901 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 810 6.1%
ANGEL VANSTARK 400 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 397 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

I certainly understand why the anti-subsidy side could not prevent all of Barnes, Daniels, Perez, Van Stark, and Carvajal from running — it’s because that’s what we do.  How Disney managed to allow both Lodge and Lahtinen in the race, I don’t know that I will ever understand.  But, to whoever screwed up — thanks!  And I hope that you are enjoying your time on the team planning for the very eventual construction of of Disney Siberia.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,647 36.0%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,575 35.4%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,908 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 976 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 817 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Don’t pity Brandman; he still has most of the money people in OC Democratic circles propelling him forward to the next race, whatever it will be.  (I wonder how he feels when he looks at Lou Correa right now….)  No one will likely be watching the drawing of straws for which just-filled Anaheim district seat will come up again in 2018 more closely than he will.  If you want to say a prayer for someone, make it Dr. Moreno.  Given this success he now faces the Herculean task of building a winning and lasting political reform movement in the city.  If anyone is up to the task, he is.

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 15,035 50.0%
No 15,043 50.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

So how come “NO” came back so strongly at a time when one would expect provisional ballots to be the ones counted?  Does it make you wonder how many voters are, well, registered in San Clemente hotels?

Total Ballots Left to Count Counted

Total eligible ballots counted (after Election Day): 416,994

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Counted

Total eligible of vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,806

Provisionals Counted

Total eligible provisionals counted: 130,300  (seriously?  that round of a number?)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Counted

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,674

Election Day Paper Ballots Counted

Total eligible election day paper ballots counted: 27,014

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Counted

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day counted: 14,200

And so, until June 2018, we’re done counting vote for now.  But much more analysis of the election and its implications is still to come!

 


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)