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We can’t think of a single entertaining illustration to use at this point in the ballot count, so you might as well learn something. (If this map is accurate, of course, which we don’t personally know. But if you can’t trust a Title Insurance and Trust Company, who can you trust?)
Headlines:
- LA County is done counting
- Orange County will report tomorrow, though it’s unsure whether that will be the final one
- The final deficit for Applegate will be under 2,000
- Newman’s lead will likely stay just under 2,500 votes — or 25% more than Issa’s!
- Alvarez’s margin over Cano in SAUSD dips below 40
- Martinez and Do — sigh
- Anaheim District 1 frozen in amber
- Anaheim District 3 stable as well
- Measure OO
leaddeficitdropsrises from -8 to -6 — recount, anyone?
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
BEFORE:
| Issa | 47,656 | 107,753 | 155,409 | 50.3147% | |
| Applegate | 31,093 | 122,372 | 153,465 | 49.6853% |
NOW:
| Issa | 47,665 | 107,830 | 155,495 | 50.3168% | |
| Applegate | 31,095 | 122,442 | 153,537 | 49.6832% |
San Diego County has about 5,000 ballots left to count, only some of them in this race, but it’s clear that that won’t matter. Issa picked up some ground today in San Diego and OC added a few grains as well. Issa’s lead is up from 1,944 to 1,958 — and he’ll probably end up within a few votes of there.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
BEFORE:
| Chang | 117,416 | 15,576 | 24,574 | 157,566 | 49.6105% |
| Newman | 120,582 | 13,235 | 26,223 | 160,040 | 50.3895% |
NOW:
| Chang | 117,441 | 15,578 | 24,709 | 157,728 | 49.6089% |
| Newman | 120,615 | 13,236 | 26,364 | 160,215 | 50.3911% |
Newman’s overall margin rises from 2,474 to 2,487. His lead in OC is 3,174. LA did come in with 276 new votes, but Newman picked up only 6 more of them than did Chang.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
With 365 more votes counted today, the SAUSD race just doesn’t feel like it will end with tomorrow’s report. If it doesn’t, Cano still has a chance. Alvarez’s lead over Cano slipped today from 59 down to 38. If Cano does that one more time; Alvarez wins; twice and she wins.. As with the previous day, Alvarez gained the fewest votes of any one of the seven candidates — which I don’t recall happening at all before this week. That’s either very unlucky … or something worse.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Do picks up 62 to Martinez’s 74. The margin is now 643. Again, this doesn’t feel like the second to last day of tallying, but it might be.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Only 14 more votes trickle in. Se, that’s what the second-to-last day of counting feels like to me. Result is almost entirely stable, Barnes up by almost 300.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Today 19 votes came in — and Moreno got 5 of them. His lead is now 72. Reaching 36.0000% looks unlikely.
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
The margin for “NO,” falls from 8 to 6. The first reversal for “NO” in quite some time. With only 4 more votes counted, though, it doesn’t look like they’ll get back to a tie game.
OK, OK: ONE LAST (simplified) WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? while we still can.
Total Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 416,694
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 415,046
Total Estimated Left to Count: 1,648
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 98,806
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,778
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 28
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000
Total provisionals counted: 128,443
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 1,557
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 146,674
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,611
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 63
Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,014
Total election day paper ballots counted: 27,014
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0
So there’s at least one more day — although, given that they haven’t updated the estimate of the number of provisionals to be counted from what is a very round number, I don’t think that we should take the notion that there are exactly 1,557 left to count all that seriously. Unless a good hunk of those 1,500-0dd votes are in Santa Ana and Capistrano, we should be pretty much done. But we’ll wait until it’s officially over, because that’s what we do here.
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