2016’s Unsettled Races, Fri. Dec. 2 Results: SAUSD Race Tightens as OC Turnout Blasts Past 80%

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We can't think of a single entertaining illustration to use at this point in the ballot count, so you might as well learn something.

We can’t think of a single entertaining illustration to use at this point in the ballot count, so you might as well learn something.  (If this map is accurate, of course, which we don’t personally know.  But if you can’t trust a Title Insurance and Trust Company, who can you trust?)

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 1,535,967
Precinct Registration 1,535,967
Precinct Ballots Cast 515,027 33.5%
Early Ballots Cast 27,534 1.8%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 695,013 45.2%
Total Ballots Cast 1,237,574 80.6%

Headlines:

  • LA County is done counting
  • Orange County will report tomorrow, though it’s unsure whether that will be the final one
  • The final deficit for Applegate will be under 2,000
  • Newman’s lead will likely stay just under 2,500 votes — or 25% more than Issa’s!
  • Alvarez’s margin over Cano in SAUSD dips below 40
  • Martinez and Do — sigh
  • Anaheim District 1 frozen in amber
  • Anaheim District 3 stable as well
  • Measure OO lead deficit drops rises from -8 to -6 — recount, anyone?
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th District
Completed Precincts: 102 of 102
Vote Count Percentage
* DARRELL ISSA (REP) 47,665 60.5%
DOUG APPLEGATE (DEM) 31,095 39.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Issa 47,656 107,753 155,409 50.3147%
Applegate 31,093 122,372 153,465 49.6853%

NOW:

Issa 47,665 107,830 155,495 50.3168%
Applegate 31,095 122,442 153,537 49.6832%

San Diego County has about 5,000 ballots left to count, only some of them in this race, but it’s clear that that won’t matter.  Issa picked up some ground today in San Diego and OC added a few grains as well.  Issa’s lead is up from 1,944 to 1,958 — and he’ll probably end up within a few votes of there.

STATE SENATOR 29th District
Completed Precincts: 400 of 400
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 120,615 50.7%
LING LING CHANG (REP) 117,441 49.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Chang 117,416 15,576 24,574 157,566 49.6105%
Newman 120,582 13,235 26,223 160,040 50.3895%

NOW:

Chang 117,441 15,578 24,709 157,728 49.6089%
Newman 120,615 13,236 26,364 160,215 50.3911%

Newman’s overall margin rises from 2,474 to 2,487.  His lead in OC is 3,174.  LA did come in with 276 new votes, but Newman picked up only 6 more of them than did Chang.

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 24,565 21.2%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 21,891 18.9%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 15,252 13.1%
ANGIE CANO 15,214 13.1%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 13,644 11.8%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 13,553 11.7%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 11,929 10.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

With 365 more votes counted today, the SAUSD race just doesn’t feel like it will end with tomorrow’s report.  If it doesn’t, Cano still has a chance.  Alvarez’s lead over Cano slipped today from 59 down to 38.  If Cano does that one more time; Alvarez wins; twice and she wins..  As with the previous day, Alvarez gained the fewest votes of any one of the seven candidates — which I don’t recall happening at all before this week.  That’s either very unlucky … or something worse.

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 76,201 50.2%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 75,558 49.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Do picks up 62 to Martinez’s 74.  The margin is now 643.  Again, this doesn’t feel like the second to last day of tallying, but it might be.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,646 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,354 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,856 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,901 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 809 6.1%
ANGEL VANSTARK 400 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 397 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Only 14 more votes trickle in.  Se, that’s what the second-to-last day of counting feels like to me.  Result is almost entirely stable, Barnes up by almost 300.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,647 36.0%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,575 35.4%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,908 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 976 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 817 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Today 19 votes came in — and Moreno got 5 of them.  His lead is now 72.  Reaching 36.0000% looks unlikely.

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 15,034 50.0%
No 15,040 50.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

The margin for “NO,” falls from 8 to 6.  The first reversal for “NO” in quite some time.   With only 4 more votes counted, though, it doesn’t look like they’ll get back to a tie game.

OK, OK: ONE LAST (simplified) WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? while we still can.

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 416,694

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 415,046

Total Estimated Left to Count: 1,648

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 98,806

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,778

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 28

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000

Total provisionals counted: 128,443

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 1,557

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 146,674

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,611

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 63

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,014

Total election day paper ballots counted: 27,014

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

So there’s at least one more day — although, given that they haven’t updated the estimate of the number of provisionals to be counted from what is a very round number, I don’t think that we should take the notion that there are exactly 1,557 left to count all that seriously.  Unless a good hunk of those 1,500-0dd votes are in Santa Ana and Capistrano, we should be pretty much done.  But we’ll wait until it’s officially over, because that’s what we do here.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)