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On the other hand, an unwatched pot tends to boil over. There’s no winning when it comes to pot-watching.
This post covers ONLY THOSE RACES THAT WE COULD NOT CALL ON ELECTION NIGHT. For races that we believe were settled on election night, refer to this earlier post — as well as to the most recently updated version of the Registrar of Voters results page.
Here is a list of the races covered in this post: live discussions are in 7-ball maroon, called races in orange.
- CA-49
- SD-29
- AD-65
- Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
- South OC CCS Seat 4
- Brea Olinda USD, third spot
- Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
- Santa Ana USD, third spot
- Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
- Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
- Ocean View Elementary, second spot
- Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
- County Supervisor, District 1
- Anaheim District 1
- Anaheim District 3
- Brea Treasurer
- Costa Mesa Council, third spot
- Fullerton Council, third spot
- Garden Grove, District 6
- Laguna Beach Council, second spot
- Lake Forest Council, second spot
- Los Alamitos Council, second spot
- Newport Beach, District 5
- Placentia Council, third spot
- San Clemente Council, second spot
- Seal Beach, District 2
- Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
- Yorba Linda Council, third spot
- Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
- Midway City Sanitary, second spot
- El Toro Water, third spot
- Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
- MWDOC Division 4
- Measure GG
- Measure OO
We keep track of WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT right here at the top so that we can be aware of how and when it changes. All that changed for today was that 1265 Early Ballots were counted. That category isn’t incuded in this list because I don’t think that it’s been nearly as a big deal before this year.
If you look at the results page — like this one — you’ll see this at the very top of the main data column:
HOW MANY NEW BALLOTS HAVE BEEN COUNTED SINCE YESTERDAY? This table means that 25,703 new ballots were reported between 5 p.m. Thursday and 5 p.m. Friday. (The cutoff for when the ballots had to be counted in order to be included in a given day’s report is probably no later than 4 p.m. or so, and likely earlier, so that they can prepare that day’s report.) The next release of reports will not be until 5 p.m. Monday, so just relax and go about your business. Why not read OJB’s old writings on the election? That should fill up your 72 hours nicely!)
WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? The numbers in the chart below are for “Ballots Counted after Election Day.” Ballots counted BY ELECTION DAY includes VBM ballots that arrived early enough that they could be processed in time to be included in the Registrar’s big first data dump on Tuesday evening at 8:05 p.m.), and — with the cutoff of when ballot arriving before Election Day, and which is what much of the rest of the categories below deal with) ALMOST EVERYTHING is either a precinct ballot or a vote-by-mail (“VBM”) ballot — but not everything everything.
- “VBM ballots left to count” (included in the “VBM Ballots” row above)
- “Provisional ballots left to count” (included in the “Precinct Ballots” row above
- “Vote-by-Mail ballots left at the polls” (I think that these are VBM Ballots, even though they are collected at precincts)
- “Election Day Paper ballots left to count” (clearly these are “Precinct Ballots”)
- “Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count” (again, probably VBM)
But the ballots at the Early Voting stations, at the Registrar’s Office and elsewhere (such as Anaheim City Hall) — WHICH ARE GREAT — are neither VBM ballots nor precinct ballots. They are the “fungus” that is neither animal nor vegetable. And so, like fungus, they get their own line. But they seem to be played out by now.
Here’s the Nov. 10 “Left to Count” posting, which is supposed to include all of the VBMs that were postmarked by :
Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 10, 5 p.m.
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 424,397
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 35,718
Total Estimated Left to Count: 388,679
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,718
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 60,088
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 108,000
Total provisionals counted: 0
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 108,000
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 184,174
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 0
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 184,174
Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500
Total election day paper ballots counted: 0
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,500
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 13,917
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 13,917 [up from 10,584 yesterday]
So much for the preliminaries — on with the show!
CA-49
| Issa | 35,291 | 65,643 | 100,934 | 51.0376% | |
| Applegate | 23,165 | 73,665 | 96,830 | 48.9624% |
Applegate gained 101 votes across the two counties on Veterans Day. (The numbers on the left are from Orange County; the column next to that is from San Diego.) Darrell Issa is now down to almost exactly a 2% lead, 4,104 in raw votes. Applegate would need about 40 more results-reporting days like this to overtake Issa. He doesn’t have that many left — probably more like 10 or 12 at most — so he’ll have to pick up the pace. But it would not be surprising for later-counted votes to be increasingly favorable to the Democrat — especially provisional ballots, which Issa will almost certainly challenge aggressively. Presumably, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and perhaps the California Democratic Party have their attorneys locked and loaded.
SD-29
See the separate piece I just wrote on this race yesterday, which doesn’t include these updates.
This was yesterday’s data table for this race:
| Chang | 82,203 | 11,042 | 16,802 | 110,047 | 50.9177% |
| Newman | 78,458 | 9,405 | 18,217 | 106,080 | 49.0823% |
And this is today’s:
| Chang | 84,998 | 11,365 | 17,205 | 113,568 | 50.9267% |
| Newman | 81,177 | 9,747 | 18,511 | 109,435 | 49.0733% |
Odd day, and a good day for Chang. Her lead in OC rose from 3,725 to 3,821, a gain of 96. In SB, her lead fell from 1,637 to 1,618, a loss of 19. But most significantly, Newman’s lead in LA fell from 1,415 to 1306 — a drop of 109. Add them together, and Chang’s lead rose by 186. That will happen from time to time, depending on what communities get counted. But overall, based on historical races like mine and Gregg Fritchle’s, we can be pretty confident that LA will treat Newman well.
Now we get back to the single-county races, happy to say!
AD-65
Young Kim added 1,445 votes to her total on Friday. But Sharon Quirk-Silva added 1,666, to expand her lead to 1,773.
Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
Claudia Alvarez picked up another 94 votes, but Steven Nguyen picked up 100, reducing the margin to 261.
South OC CCS Seat 4
Terri Whitt added 2.522 votes, remaining at 35.0%. John Alpay also added 2.522, remaining at 33.8% and using up some of the opportunity he needs to gain on her. Jim Leach added 2,249, falling further behind.
Brea Olinda USD, third spot
Kevin Hobby added 200 votes in the race for the third spot; Rod Todd added 198, stretching Hobby’s margin to 188.
Irvine USD, third spot — CALLED FOR BETTY CARROLL
Santa Ana USD, third spot
Ceci Iglesias added 281 votes and Rigo Rodriguez added 225; both are safe — but the lesson is that it was a good day for the conservatives. Angie Cano added 165; Mark McLoughlin added 137; while Bruce Bauer added 171 and barrelled into fourth place by 12 votes, 234 behind Cano. Alfonzo Alvarez gained 145 and remains 70-80 votes behind MM and BB.
Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
Carol Jensen picked up 5 votes and Irene Castaneda picked up 11 votes, bringing the margin back down to 14.
Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
Liz Gonzalez picks up 28 votes, Irv Trinkle picks up 10, the margin is back to 135, or 5.6%.
Ocean View Elementary, second spot
Norm Westwell picks up 88; Patricia Singer picks up 90. He’s still over 800 votes ahead.
Westminster Elementary, second spot — CALLED FOR FRANCES NGUYEN
County Supervisor, District 1
Andrew Do adds 1,111 votes; Michele Martinez adds 793. Only the prospect of big Latino provisionals keeps this race from being called for Do.
Anaheim District 1
Denise Barnes adds 106 votes. Steve Lodge picks up only 86. Leonard Lahtinen added 104. This may be a sign of voters turning from Lodge to Lahtinen towards the end. Or it could just be noise.
Anaheim District 3
It was a good day for Jordan Brandman, who added 177 votes to Dr. Jose Moreno’s 132. These things happen sometimes. The margin climbs to 312.
Brea Treasurer
Rios adds 254 votes; Ullrich adds 232. The margin increases to 553.
Costa Mesa Council, third spot
Genis adds 270; Stephens adds 281. Among the aspirants for the third spot: Mansoor adds 251; Mensinger adds 261; Humphrey adds 209. Oof.
Fullerton Council, third spot
Fitzgerald adds 296; Whitaker adds 222. Among aspirants for the third seat: Silva adds 247; Bennett adds 206. The lead keeps on expanding — it’s now at 838!
Garden Grove, District 6
Finally new votes start rolling in. Kim Nguyen has added 51 and Montoya adds 45. Again, this is still being watched only because of the possibility of many Latino provisionals coming in at the end. Margin is now 516.
Laguna Beach Council, second spot
Dictorow adds 188; Rollinger adds 141. Booo! Margin is now 329.
Lake Forest Council, second spot
Dwight Robinson adds 264; Adam Nick adds 244. Margin is now 168.
Los Alamitos Council, second spot
No new votes added.
Newport Beach, District 5
Herdman adds 291; Lowery adds 350; Glenn adds 222 and seems to be falling out of contention.
Placentia Council, third spot
Smith adds 246; Yamaguchi adds 260. Rhonda Shader adds 191 and passes our endorsed candidate, Chris Bunker, who added 166. Tom Solomonson added 135 and is slipping behind.
San Clemente Council, second spot
Swartz adds 355, Baker adds 310, and Bane adds 387, to climb to 83 behind Baker.
Seal Beach, District 2
Moore adds 6; Winkler adds 7! The margin is 29.
Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
Rossini adds 73, Pitts adds 57, and Kirschner adds 63 to cut the gap to 82.
Yorba Linda Council, third spot
Beth Haney adds 190, but Crain Young adds 229. The margin is now 322.
Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
No new votes added.
Midway City Sanitary, second spot
Neugebauer adds 88; Nguyen adds 169! The margin is now 49.
El Toro Water, third spot
Monin adds 249; Freshley adds 230. Margin is 220.
Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
Nederhood adds 231; Wren adds 250. The margin drops to 614.
MWDOC Division 4
Finnegan adds 534; Rowe adds 485. Margin is 3,148.
Measure GG
Yes adds 298; No adds 336. New margin is 415 votes.
Measure OO
Yes adds 472; No adds 418. New margin is 303.
And THAT will have to hold you until after 5:00 p.m. on Monday! (Probably quite a bit after 5:00.) Try to keep yourselves busy!
*Like watching two snails race across a pool table….eh? Well, you know….sometimes it takes quite a lot of phone calls to see WHO is going to be the final winner…
Less talky mote Papi.
Fuck the trump kids.
We support Jose!