2016’s Unsettled Races, Fri. Nov. 11’s Results: Settle In, It’ll Be a Long Time Until the Next Report

.

.

.

On the other hand, an unwatched pot tends to boil over. There's no winning when it comes to pot-watching.

On the other hand, an unwatched pot tends to boil over. There’s no winning when it comes to pot-watching.

This post covers ONLY THOSE RACES THAT WE COULD NOT CALL ON ELECTION NIGHT.  For races that we believe were settled on election night, refer to this earlier post — as well as to the most recently updated version of the Registrar of Voters results page.

Here is a list of the races covered in this post: live discussions are in 7-ball maroon, called races in orange.

  1. CA-49
  2. SD-29
  3. AD-65
  4. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
  5. South OC CCS Seat 4
  6. Brea Olinda USD, third spot
  7. Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
  8. Santa Ana USD, third spot
  9. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
  10. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
  11. Ocean View Elementary, second spot
  12. Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
  13. County Supervisor, District 1
  14. Anaheim District 1
  15. Anaheim District 3
  16. Brea Treasurer
  17. Costa Mesa Council, third spot
  18. Fullerton Council, third spot
  19. Garden Grove, District 6
  20. Laguna Beach Council, second spot
  21. Lake Forest Council, second spot
  22. Los Alamitos Council, second spot
  23. Newport Beach, District 5
  24. Placentia Council, third spot
  25. San Clemente Council, second spot
  26. Seal Beach, District 2
  27. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
  28. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
  29. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
  30. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
  31. El Toro Water, third spot
  32. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
  33. MWDOC Division 4
  34. Measure GG
  35. Measure OO

We keep track of WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT right here at the top so that we can be aware of how and when it changes.  All that changed for today was that 1265 Early Ballots were counted.  That category isn’t incuded in this list because I don’t think that it’s been nearly as a big deal before this year.

If you look at the results page — like this one — you’ll see this at the very top of the main data column:

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 1,535,967
Precinct Registration 1,535,967
Precinct Ballots Cast 389,948 25.4%
Early Ballots Cast 5,596 0.4%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 466,756 30.4%
Total Ballots Cast 862,300 56.1%

HOW MANY NEW BALLOTS HAVE BEEN COUNTED SINCE YESTERDAY?  This table means that 25,703 new ballots were reported between 5 p.m. Thursday and 5 p.m. Friday.  (The cutoff for when the ballots had to be counted in order to be included in a given day’s report is probably no later than 4 p.m. or so, and likely earlier, so that they can prepare that day’s report.)  The next release of reports will not be until 5 p.m. Monday, so just relax and go about your business.  Why not read OJB’s old writings on the election?  That should fill up your 72 hours nicely!)

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?  The numbers in the chart below are for “Ballots Counted after Election Day.”  Ballots counted BY ELECTION DAY includes VBM ballots that arrived early enough that they could be processed in time to be included in the Registrar’s big first data dump on Tuesday evening at 8:05 p.m.), and  — with the cutoff of when ballot arriving before Election Day, and which is what much of the rest of the categories below deal with)  ALMOST EVERYTHING is either a precinct ballot or a vote-by-mail (“VBM”) ballot  — but not everything everything.

  • “VBM ballots left to count” (included in the “VBM Ballots” row above)
  • “Provisional ballots left to count” (included in the “Precinct Ballots” row above
  • “Vote-by-Mail ballots left at the polls” (I think that these are VBM Ballots, even though they are collected at precincts)
  • “Election Day Paper ballots left to count” (clearly these are “Precinct Ballots”)
  • “Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count” (again, probably VBM)

But the ballots at the Early Voting stations, at the Registrar’s Office and elsewhere (such as Anaheim City Hall) — WHICH ARE GREAT — are neither VBM ballots nor precinct ballots.  They are the “fungus” that is neither animal nor vegetable.  And so, like fungus, they get their own line.  But they seem to be played out by now.

Here’s the Nov. 10 “Left to Count” posting, which is supposed to include all of the VBMs that were postmarked by :

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 10, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 424,397

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 35,718

Total Estimated Left to Count: 388,679

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,718

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 60,088

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 108,000

Total provisionals counted: 0

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 108,000

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 184,174

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 0

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 184,174

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500

Total election day paper ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,500

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 13,917

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 13,917  [up from 10,584 yesterday]

So much for the preliminaries — on with the show!

CA-49

Issa 35,291 65,643 100,934 51.0376%
Applegate 23,165 73,665 96,830 48.9624%

Applegate gained 101 votes across the two counties on Veterans Day.  (The numbers on the left are from Orange County; the column next to that is from San Diego.)  Darrell Issa is now down to almost exactly a 2% lead, 4,104 in raw votes.  Applegate would need about 40 more results-reporting days like this to overtake Issa.  He doesn’t have that many left — probably more like 10 or 12 at most — so he’ll have to pick up the pace.  But it would not be surprising for later-counted votes to be increasingly favorable to the Democrat — especially provisional ballots, which Issa will almost certainly challenge aggressively.  Presumably, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and perhaps the California Democratic Party have their attorneys locked and loaded.

SD-29

See the separate piece I just wrote on this race yesterday, which doesn’t include these updates.

This was yesterday’s data table for this race:

Chang 82,203 11,042 16,802 110,047 50.9177%
Newman 78,458 9,405 18,217 106,080 49.0823%

And this is today’s:

Chang 84,998 11,365 17,205 113,568 50.9267%
Newman 81,177 9,747 18,511 109,435 49.0733%

Odd day, and a good day for Chang.  Her lead in OC rose from 3,725 to 3,821, a gain of 96.  In SB, her lead fell from 1,637 to 1,618, a loss of 19.  But most significantly, Newman’s lead in LA fell from 1,415 to 1306 — a drop of 109.  Add them together, and Chang’s lead rose by 186.  That will happen from time to time, depending on what communities get counted.  But overall, based on historical races like mine and Gregg Fritchle’s, we can be pretty confident that LA will treat Newman well.

Now we get back to the single-county races, happy to say!

AD-65

Young Kim added 1,445 votes to her total on Friday.  But Sharon Quirk-Silva added 1,666, to expand her lead to 1,773.

Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5

Claudia Alvarez picked up another 94 votes, but Steven Nguyen picked up 100, reducing the margin to 261.

South OC CCS Seat 4

Terri Whitt added 2.522 votes, remaining at 35.0%.  John Alpay also added 2.522, remaining at 33.8% and using up some of the opportunity he needs to gain on her.   Jim Leach added 2,249, falling further behind.

Brea Olinda USD, third spot

Kevin Hobby added 200 votes in the race for the third spot; Rod Todd added 198, stretching Hobby’s margin to 188.

Irvine USD, third spot — CALLED FOR BETTY CARROLL

Santa Ana USD, third spot

Ceci Iglesias added 281 votes and Rigo Rodriguez added 225; both are safe — but the lesson is that it was a good day for the conservatives.  Angie Cano added 165; Mark McLoughlin added 137; while Bruce Bauer added 171 and barrelled into fourth place by 12 votes, 234 behind Cano.  Alfonzo Alvarez gained 145 and remains 70-80 votes behind MM and BB.

Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4

Carol Jensen picked up 5 votes and Irene Castaneda picked up 11 votes, bringing the margin back down to 14.

Centralia Elementary, Seat 3

Liz Gonzalez picks up 28 votes, Irv Trinkle picks up 10, the margin is back to 135, or 5.6%.

Ocean View Elementary, second spot

Norm Westwell picks up 88; Patricia Singer picks up 90.  He’s still over 800 votes ahead.

Westminster Elementary, second spot — CALLED FOR FRANCES NGUYEN

County Supervisor, District 1

Andrew Do adds 1,111 votes; Michele Martinez adds 793.  Only the prospect of big Latino provisionals keeps this race from being called for Do.

Anaheim District 1

Denise Barnes adds 106 votes.  Steve Lodge picks up only 86.  Leonard Lahtinen added 104.  This may be a sign of voters turning from Lodge to Lahtinen towards the end.  Or it could just be noise.

Anaheim District 3

It was a good day for Jordan Brandman, who added 177 votes to Dr. Jose Moreno’s 132.  These things happen sometimes.  The margin climbs to 312.

Brea Treasurer

Rios adds 254 votes; Ullrich adds 232.  The margin increases to 553.

Costa Mesa Council, third spot

Genis adds 270; Stephens adds 281.  Among the aspirants for the third spot: Mansoor adds 251; Mensinger adds 261; Humphrey adds 209.  Oof.

Fullerton Council, third spot

Fitzgerald adds 296; Whitaker adds 222.  Among aspirants for the third seat: Silva adds 247; Bennett adds 206.  The lead keeps on expanding — it’s now at 838!

Garden Grove, District 6

Finally new votes start rolling in.  Kim Nguyen has added 51 and Montoya adds 45.  Again, this is still being watched only because of the possibility of many Latino provisionals coming in at the end.  Margin is now 516.

Laguna Beach Council, second spot

Dictorow adds 188; Rollinger adds 141.  Booo!  Margin is now 329.

Lake Forest Council, second spot

Dwight Robinson adds 264; Adam Nick adds 244.  Margin is now 168.

Los Alamitos Council, second spot

No new votes added.

Newport Beach, District 5

Herdman adds 291; Lowery adds 350; Glenn adds 222 and seems to be falling out of contention.

Placentia Council, third spot

Smith adds 246; Yamaguchi adds 260.  Rhonda Shader adds 191 and passes our endorsed candidate, Chris Bunker, who added 166.  Tom Solomonson added 135 and is slipping behind.

San Clemente Council, second spot

Swartz adds 355, Baker adds 310, and Bane adds 387, to climb to 83 behind Baker.

Seal Beach, District 2

Moore adds 6; Winkler adds 7!  The margin is 29.

Villa Park Council, first AND second spots

Rossini adds 73, Pitts adds 57, and Kirschner adds 63 to cut the gap to 82.

Yorba Linda Council, third spot

Beth Haney adds 190, but Crain Young adds 229.  The margin is now 322.

Rossmoor Community Services, third spot

No new votes added.

Midway City Sanitary, second spot

Neugebauer adds 88; Nguyen adds 169!  The margin is now 49.

El Toro Water, third spot

Monin adds 249; Freshley adds 230.  Margin is 220.

Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement

Nederhood adds 231; Wren adds 250.  The margin drops to 614.

MWDOC Division 4

Finnegan adds 534; Rowe adds 485.  Margin is 3,148.

Measure GG

Yes adds 298; No adds 336.  New margin is 415 votes.

Measure OO

Yes adds 472; No adds 418.  New margin is 303.

And THAT will have to hold you until after 5:00 p.m. on Monday!  (Probably quite a bit after 5:00.)  Try to keep yourselves busy!


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)