[Note: this post is just laying out the field in the various races. It doesn’t include ballot measures and appellate judge races, if there are any. OJB’s endorsements will come in right around. May Day.]

This came out on April 1, so I didn’t know whether to believe it — but it’s apparently true!

CERTIFIED LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR THE JUNE 7, 2022, PRIMARY ELECTION
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE, STATE OF CALIFORNIA

I, Shirley N. Weber, Ph.D., Secretary of State of the State of California, do hereby certify
That the following list contains the name, office sought, and, if applicable, the ballot designation and party preference of each person for whom nomination papers for state-certified office have been filed in my office and who is entitled to be voted for in one or more of the counties of the state at the Primary Election to be held on Tuesday, June 7, 2022.
Dated at Sacramento, California, this 31 st day of March, 2022. | Shirley N. Weber, Ph.D., SECRETARY OF STATE

I’m combining it with the races already reported (except for races that go beyond county borders) County ballot to give you — your entire June primary ballot! (Note: if you saw Matt Cunningham’s premature explication here, don’t skip this; not having waited, he’s wrong about the line-ups in several races.)

Now, I would like to think that I could restrain myself from commentary until we get near endorsement time — but who am I trying to kid? There will be some comments below, but not as many as when Vern and I (and whoever else we invite to join in) endorse on or around May Day. As usual with our election reporting, my comments are in green (for Greg) and Vern’s, if he chooses to add any, will be in violet .

Governor

DEMS
Anthony “Tony” Fanara, Owner of Restaurant
Gavin Newsom*, Governor of California
Armando “Mando” Perez-Serrato, No Ballot Designation
Joel Ventresca, Retired Airport Analyst

REEPS
Ronald A. Anderson, Contractor/Inspector/Businessman
Shawn Collins, Military Officer/Attorney
Brian Dahle, Senator/Farmer
Ron Jones, No Ballot Designation
Jenny Rae Le Roux, Entrepreneur/Mom/Businesswoman
David Lozano, Executive Officer/Attorney
Daniel R. Mercuri, Father/Business Owner
Cristian Raul Morales, Director of Operations
Robert C. Newman II, Farmer/Psychologist
Lonnie Sortor, Business Owner
Anthony Trimino, Entrepreneur/CEO
Major Williams, Entrepreneur/Businessman
Leo S. Zacky, Businessman/Farmer/Broadcaster

GREENS
Heather Collins, Green, Small Business Owner
Luis Javier Rodriguez, Green, Writer/Poet

NPP
Serge Fiankan, Small Business Owner
James G. Hanink, Retired Educator
Woodrow “Woody” Sanders III, Entrepreneur/Director/Engineer
Frederic C. Schultz, Human Rights Attorney
Reinette Senum, No Ballot Designation
Michael Shellenberger, Homelessness Policy Advocate
Bradley Zink, Children’s Book Author

Greg’s comments: One thing that I’m glad to see is the the Green and Peace & Freedom parties are mostly divvying up the races. Each party needs to get 2% to stay on the ballot — and frankly we’re all better off if at least one of them is — Democrats included, as it provides a means to protest in a primary that may make people better about the runoff.

I had not really realized until now how much covering the sillier sideshows of the gubernatorial recall was going to help understand who was on the ballot in later races. Many of the people listed here ran in the recall replacement race, and seem to be perennial candidates. (An expensive hobby, true, but at least it leaves one very slightly famous until Ballotpedia expires when the meteor hits.) So, from the relevant Newsom recall post, say hello once again — with their rank in the replacement race results, to: Heather Collins (30th, a hair salon owner), James Hanink (34th), Jenny Rae Le Roux (29th), David Lozano (32nd), Armando Perez-Serrato (12th,of Orange, who wants to remake the Democratic Party into something that looked to me like the Republican Party), John Ventresca (10th — who I liked then and still like!), Daniel Mercuri (28th), Robert C. Newman II (37th), Anthony Trimino (18th — and of Irvine!), and Leo Zacky (44th, or third from last)! We might write about you on a slow news day between now and early June. (Or we may not!) And that brings us to a question for longtime readers: how the hell is Nickolas Wildstar not running for this?

One thing that I’m shocked to see is the total absence of Libertarian candidates on the ballot. (Did I miss something? Is the party no longer a going concern?) The leading Dem candidates will be Newsom and Green-in-all-but-name Ventresca; the leading Republican candidates will likely be Brian Dahle and Major Williams. With Ventresca on the ballot, I don’t think this is a great race for the Greens, and no NPP will likely do much.

Lieutenant Governor

DEMS
Eleni Kounalakis*, Lieutenant Governor
Jeffrey Highbear Morgan, Businessman/Engineer
William Cavett “Skee” Saacke, California Trial Attorney

REEPS
David Fennell, Entrepreneur
Clint W. Saunders, Mental Health Worker
Angela E. Underwood Jacobs, Businesswoman/Deputy Mayor

PEACE AND FREEDOM
Mohammad Arif, Businessman

NPP
David Hillberg, Aviation Mechanic/Actor

Greg’s comments: The only one I’ve seen advertising at all is Skee Sackee, so this could be a blue-on-blue runoff. Among the Reeps, Jacobs has the best ballot designation. This is a good chance for Peace and Freedom’s Arif to reach 2%.

SECRETARY OF STATE

DEMS
Shirley N. Weber, Appointed California Secretary of State
Rob Bernosky, Chief Financial Officer

REEPS
Rachel Hamm, Author
James “JW” Paine, Teamster Truck Driver
Raul Rodriguez Jr., Retired Warehouseman
Gary N. Blenner, Teacher

GREENS
Matthew D. Cinquanta, Private Investigator

Greg’s comments: No one seems to have the chops to catch Weber. The Green candidate may reach 2% here.

Controller

DEMS
Malia M. Cohen, California State Board of Equalization Member
Ron Galperin, Controller, City of Los Angeles/Attorney
Steve Glazer, California State Senator
Yvonne Yiu, Chief Financial Officer

REEPS
Lanhee Chen, Fiscal Advisor/Educator

GREENS
Laura Wells, Financial Analyst

Sorry, Laura Wells — it’s a race between three strong Democrats for what may be just one slot, and I’m going with Malia!

Treasurer

DEMS
Fiona Ma*, State Treasurer/CPA

REEPS
Andrew Do, Chief Financial Officer
Jack M. Guerrero, Councilmember/CPA/Economist

PEACE AND FREEDOM
Meghann Adams, School Bus Driver

Greg’s comments: Fiona Ma against Andrew “won’t admit he’s a Supervisor so no one looks him up” Do. Ma has totally lost me with her SAPOA ties, so I’ll support the bus driver!

Attorney General

DEMS
Rob Bonta, Appointed Attorney General of the State of California

REEPS
Eric Early, Attorney/Business Owner
Nathan Hochman, General Counsel

GREENS
Dan Kapelovitz, Criminal Defense Attorney

Greg’s comments: Bonta has done a good job, and I’ll happily vote for him in November. But in June, I’ll be for Kapelovitz to help the Greens get their 2%!.

Insurance Commissioner

DEMS
Vinson Eugene Allen, Medical Doctor/Businessman
Jasper “Jay” Jackson, Paralegal
Ricardo Lara*, Insurance Commissioner
Marc Levine, Member, California State Assembly

REEPS
Greg Conlon, Businessman/CPA
Robert Howell, Cybersecurity Equipment Manufacturer

GREENS
Veronika Fimbres, Nurse

PEACE AND FREEDOM
Nathalie Hrizi, Teacher/Union Officer

NPP
Robert J. Molnar, Healthcare Advocate/Businessman

Greg’s comments: Lara will make the runoff, probably against Conlon — but possibly against Levine, who is one of our best Assemblymembers. The minor party candidates should not spoil this race for Levine! (Sorry, my friend Veronika!)

Superintendent of Public Instruction (Non-Partisan)

Marco Amaral, Teacher/Trustee
Joseph Guy Campbell, Montessori Education Publisher
Lance Ray Christensen, Education Policy Executive
Jim Gibson, Cyber Security Professional
Ainye E. Long, Public School Teacher
Tony K. Thurmond*, Superintendent of Public Instruction
George Yang, Software Architect/Father

Greg’s comments: it will be Thurmond over someone who isn’t Thurmond. We need to weed out the chartertarians!

Board of Equalization Member

District 1
Jose S. Altamirano, Business Operations Manager
Braden Murphy, Father
Nader Shahatit, Tax Consultant
Ted Gaines, Member, Board of Equalization

Greg’s comments: Gaines will win in this, the most conservative district.

District 2
Michela Alioto-Pier, Democratic, Small Business Owner
Sally J. Lieber, Democratic, Councilwoman/Environmental Advocate
Peter Coe Verbica, Republican, Investment Advisor

Greg’s comments: Former SF Mayor Alioto’s name carries lots of cachet, but it’s a shame because Sally Lieber is much better. Both Dems could advance, though, in this most-liberal district.

District 3
John Mendoza, Democratic, No Ballot Designation
Tony Vazquez, Democratic, Member, Board of Equalization
Y. Marie Manvel, No Party Preference, Social Services Commissioner

Greg’s comments: In the LA district, two Dems is a real possibility. Vasquez will make the runoff.

District 4 (INCLUDES ORANGE COUNTY!)
David Dodson, Democratic, State Board Supervisor
Mike Schaefer, Democratic, Member, State Board of Equalization, 4th District
Denis R. Bilodeau, Republican, Taxpayer Advocate/Engineer
Randell R. Economy, Republican, Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper, Republican, Businessman/Business Owner
John F. Kelly, Republican, Small Business Owner
Erik Peterson, Republican, Huntington Beach Councilmember/Businessman

Greg’s comments: This is the most open BOE race by far. Schaefer will almost surely make the runoff. If Dems wanted Dodson — by far the most qualified candidate and the only one not chiefly in it for that sweet salary — to be the other one, they could probably get both Dems through and preserve the seat. But they don’t care to do so, so some Republican will grab the other spot and, my guess is, beat Schaefer. Which Reep will make the runoff, if Dodson doesn’t? My guess is: Riverside’s Randy Economy, with the OC Republican vote so deeply split.

United States Senator (Full Term)

DEMS
Akinyemi Agbede, Mathematician
Dan O’Dowd, No Ballot Designation
Alex Padilla, Appointed United States Senator
Douglas Howard Pierce, Missing Children’s Advocate
Obaidul Huq Pirjada, Attorney
Timothy J Ursich, Doctor

REEPS
James P. Bradley, CEO/Business Owner
Jon Elist, Small Business Owner
Myron L. Hall, Podiatric Physician
Sarah Sun Liew, Entrepreneur/Non-Profit Director
Robert George Lucero, Jr, Executive Business Consultant
Mark P. Meuser, Constitutional Attorney
Enrique Petris, Businessman/Investor
Chuck Smith, Retired Law Enforcement
Carlos Guillermo Tapia, Business Owner/Realtor
Cordie Williams, Doctor/Business Owner

GREENS
James “Henk” Conn, Teacher
Pamela Elizondo, Marijuana Plastic Entrepreneur

PEACE AND FREEDOM
John Thompson Parker, Social Justice Advocate

NPP
Daphne Bradford, Education Consultant
Eleanor Garcia, Industrial Worker
Don J. Grundmann, Doctor of Chiropractic
Deon D. Jenkins, No Ballot Designation

Greg’s comments: I still regret that Padilla got this nod rather than Becerra — but Padilla’s less independent. He has one sure slot in the primary — and there are so many Republicans that it could be blue on blue. (Mathematician Agbede intrigues me! I want to know more! Let’s check out his video! … I’m not sure of his message, but I did figure out that he sounds more natural at both 1.25x and .75x than at normal speed, which I don’t think I’ve ever seen before. OK, more research later.) Could the runoff be Blue-on-green or P&F-rose? Possible … but not likely.

United States Senator (Partial/Unexpired Term)

DEMS
Dan O’Dowd, No Ballot Designation
Alex Padilla, Appointed United States Senator
Timothy Ursich Jr., Doctor

REEPS
James P. Bradley, CEO/Business Owner
Jon Elist, Small Business Owner
Myron L. Hall, Podiatric Physician
Mark P. Meuser, Constitutional Attorney

NPP
Daphne Bradford, Education Consultant

Greg’s comments: I’d guess that one of the Reeps running here — probably Bradley — will be the Republican frontrunner both here and in the full-term race. One or more of the lefties should have switched to this race to get their 2%. This will require more research before I say even a word — although “podiatrist” makes me suspicious and “Elist” raises several possible wisecracks — though I seem to recall thinking that Mark Meuser was a crackpot. I’ll check that out.

OC Congressional Seats (Whole or Part)

OC seats are 38, 40, 45, 46, 47, 49

United States Representative District 38

Linda T. Sánchez, Democratic, Mom/Congresswoman
Eric J. Ching, Republican, Mayor, City of Walnut/Entrepreneur
John Sarega, Republican, Pastor/Business Owner

Greg’s comments: Presumably Sanchez beats Ching in November.

United States Representative District 40

Asif Mahmood, Democratic, Physician, Internal Medicine
Young Kim, Republican, U.S. Representative
Greg Raths, Retired Marine Colonel, Republican
Nick Taurus, Republican, Junk Hauler

Greg’s comments: Dr, Mahmood is a really good guy who ran for Insurance Commissioner four years ago. While some Dems might like to see Young Kim and Raths in an expensive death match, I hope out hope for the good doctor!

United States Representative District 42 (Long Beach, not OC)

Joaquín Beltrán, Democratic, Engineer/Community Organizer
Cristina Garcia, Democratic, Assemblymember/Math Teacher
Robert Garcia, Democratic, Mayor of Long Beach
J. Nicole Lopez, Democratic, Non-profit Organization Employee
Peter Mathews, Democratic, Professor, American Government
William Moses Summerville, Democratic, Pastor/Hospice Chaplain
John Briscoe, Republican, Governing Board Member, Ocean View School District of Orange County
Julio Cesar Flores, Green, Education Administrator/Entrepreneur

Greg’s comments: Like Certitos and La Mirada, southeastern Long Beach is sort of “honorary OC,” so I’ll include coverage of this race featuring a lot of Democrats, one Green, and one familiar Republican, Bill Briscoe, competing for the seat. Robert Garcia — gay rights leader, but also a Poseidon proponent, and Assemblymember Cristina Garcia are probably the leading Democrats in the race, but I retain hopes for California Democratic Party activist Summerville.

United States Representative District 45

Jay F. Chen, Democratic, Lieutenant Commander/Businessman
Long K Pham, Republican, Businessman/Nuclear Engineer
Michelle Steel, Republican, U.S. Representative

Greg’s comments: the easy way to think about this is that Chen will make the runoff, being the sole Democrat, and Steel will make the runoff, being an incumbent. But that may underestimate Long Pham, who is the only Vietnamese candidate in a Asian-packed district that is centered on Little Saigon. The Chinese voters in the north will likely favor Chen. While Steel is Korean, like many voters in Fullerton, it’s far from her base. I like Long Pham, though I strongly prefer Chen, but he presumably will not get the RPOC endorsement, given the Republican penchant of loyalty to party royalty. I do suspect that whichever rival treats Pham with more respect may have an in with Vietnamese voters.

United States Representative District 46

Lou Correa, Democratic, United States Congressmember
Mike Ortega, Democratic, Biomedical Engineer
Christopher J. Gonzales, Republican, Businessman/Attorney
Mike Nguyen, Republican, Broker/Business Owner
Felix Rocha, Jr., Republican, Retired Federal Agent
Ed Rushman, No Party Preference, Technical Project Manager

Greg’s comments: Correa would probably be happy to run against anyone but Ortega, the first liberal-with-a-chance he’ll have faced since his first election to Congress. But four Republicans splitting the vote — yes, the NPP is essentially a Republican — give Ortega a real shot by denying Correa the Republican support he needs in the primary. Barring the RPOC’s strong and forceful consolidation behind one candidate, I like Ortega’s odds of making the runoff with Correa.

United States Representative District 47

Katie Porter, Democratic, U.S. Representative
Scott Baugh, Republican, Orange County Business Owner
Brian Burley, Republican, Small Business Owner
Amy Phan West, Republican, Small Businesswoman
Errol Webber, Republican, Documentary Film Producer

Greg’s comments: Katie Porter will be in the runoff — against someone politically unpleasant. (And yes, that includes Webber.) Even if no Dem was willing to jump in and try to seal off this race, this was a chance for the Green Party to take a propitious run at a seat. Too bad it didn’t happen; it might have saved Porter a lot of money in the runoff.

United States Representative District 49

Mike Levin, Democratic, US Representative 49th District
Nadia Bahia Smalley, Democratic, Private Nurse/Businesswoman
Lisa A. Bartlett, Republican, County Supervisor/Businesswoman
Brian Maryott, Republican, Businessman/Nonprofit Executive
Josiah O’Neil, Republican, Sheriff’s Deputy/Businessman,
Christopher Rodriguez, Republican, Councilmember/Businessman/Farmer
Renee Taylor, Republican, Cybersecurity Manager/Airman

Greg’s comments: this is probably still about a 50-50 seat. Smalley seems to be a perennial candidate from North San Diego County who ran for President in 2020. If we give Bartlett and Maryott 30% each of the Republican’s half, Rodriguez 20% from people wanting a Latino, and the the other two 10% each, how much would Smalley have to get to make the runoff? She’d need a 70-30 split with Levin, right? If I were Levin, I’d be having a lot of friendly debates with Smalley to build her up, but I doubt she’d make the runoff even then, against two heavyweight Reeps. My guess: it’ll be Bartlett.

OC Even-Numbered State Senate Seats (Whole or Part)

Greg’s introductory comments: By a quirk of districting and fate, OC sole odd-numbered seat, SD-37, is up in 2024. This raises the question of which district Josh Newman, of the now-relocated SD-29, will be representing for the last two years of his term. (We saw this a decade about with Lou Correa, and we see it now with Katrina Foley. Dave Min will continue to represent SD-37 from Irvine, while Newman will be assigned to represent an empty odd-numbered district for the next two years. Sadly, the only closest odd-numbered districts to OC are: SD-33, a 63.3% combined Latino and Black district just to the west of OC, which runs from south Long Beach all the way to East LA; SD-35, a 77.9% combined Latino and Black district just to the west of SD-33, which runs from the Port of Long Beach past Carson, Compton, and Inglewood to LAX; SD 31, a majority Latino district (about 63% Latino and Black), which runs from Corona through Mira Loma, Riverside, Jurupa Valley, and Perris. almost to Hemet; and finally SD-25, a just over 40% white and 30% Asian district, which starts in South Montebello and soars north through Alhambra, Monterey Park, and Rosemead to Glendale, Pasadena, Arcadia, Altadena, and La Canada Flintridge, then pointlessly east, around a huge and seemingly depopulated peninsula north of West Covina, almost (but not quite) to Wrightwood and Rancho Cucamonga, before dipping down to pick up Glendora. And then, if Newman wanted to stay in the State Senate he’d have to move to one of those districts.

CA-25 seems the most likely of these temporary assignments, unless some incumbent lives with two years remaining lives there. But you might wonder: what’s the community of interest between a district stretching from Pasadena to Glendora? Oh, that’s easy: these are cities to which Josh Newman will not move just to stay in the Senate. Seriously, these maps, once numbered, seem primarily drawn to screw Senator Newman. (Or, perhaps rather, “Secretary of whatever Cabinet position opens up next” Newman.)

State Senate District 30

Bob Archuleta, Democratic California State Senator
Henry Bouchot, Democratic Councilmember, City of Whittier
Martha Camacho Rodriguez, Democratic Teacher/Water Advocate
Mitch Clemmons, Republican Plumber/Business Owner

Greg’s comments: This is a Democratic district, although Archuleta’s not much of a Democrat, and I don’t know if Rodriguez’s ballot designation makes her a Poseidon or other scam advocate. Bouchot is a good liberal. But with Clemmons having a good shot at the runoff as the only Republican, and with Martha Camacho-Rodriguez apparently being a similarly good progressive, it’s questionable whether Bouchot can beat Archuleta. Then again, if Archuleta is hoping for Republican support, maybe Clemmons doesn’t make the runoff after all. Most of Brea seems to be in this wildly drawn district, along with some of La Habra, some of Yorba Linda, and some of Fullerton — all of which will be dwarfed by the vote from LA County west and north of North OC.

State Senate District 32

Brian Nash, Democratic, Analytics Consultant/Businessperson
Kelly Seyarto, Republican, California State Assemblymember

Greg’s comments: This district connects most of Yorba Linda to, uh, hmm, Murietta and Temecula, Borrego Springs, Julian, and then it ducks just under Hemet and Palm Desert, stopping just short of the Salton Sea. (Because we all know that that’s the sort of company in which where Yorba Linda fits.) Luckily, the primary is meaningless, so the various parts of the district will have time to get to know each other, if they wish. Have fun with your new playmates, Yorba Linda!

State Senate District 34

Tom Umberg, Democratic, Senator/Small Businessperson
Rhonda Shader, Republican, Mayor/Small Businesswoman

Greg’s comments: This is a majority Latino District, taking in everywhere from Santa Ana and much of the Anaheim Flatlands to South Fullerton and La Habra, and then sproinging off into Buena Park and another into west of La Habra, but south of South Whittier and north of La Mirada and not quite as far west as Norwalk and Santa Fe Spring. I can’t find it named on a map, but there were apparently a lot of Latinos there, to create this majority Latino district — in which no Latino is running — just a blonde white woman from Placentia and a white-haired white man from no particular apparent city (given that it’s not in his bio I can’t look up his residency.) Nice job, Redistricting Commission! Giving an automatic endorsement to Umberg in this Latino-majority district means that Democrats have truly earned a loss, if it comes.

State Senate District 36

Kim Carr, Democratic, City of Huntington Beach Councilmember
Janet Nguyen, Republican, California Assemblymember/Businesswoman

Greg’s comments: Technically meaningless, in that no write-in is going to displace either of these candidates, yet useful in that it provides both sides a “dress rehearsal” before they prepare for the final show in November. So, if you’re for Carr, it’s time to volunteer! If you’re for Nguyen — since when did you start reading this blog?

State Senate District 38

Catherine Blakespear, Democratic Mayor of Encinitas
Joe Kerr, Democratic Retired Fire Captain
Matt Gunderson, Republican Small Business Owner

Greg’s comments: This district goes from cities picked out of highly Republican portions of South Orange County — Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo, RSM, SJC, and the unincorporated quartet where Kerr lives all the way down the Coast past Pendleton and Oceanside, Carlsbad and Encinitas and Solano Beach, all the way to freaking Pacific Beach and Mission Beach, at the border of the City of San Diego itself. Gunderson is also from the unincorporated quartet, in Ladera Ranch, also unelected, and probably has a better chance with the voters in the northern part of the district. Blakespear, on the other hand, is Mayor of one of the major cities in the district, and should be able to sweep up the Democratic votes in the more Democratic part of the district. So the basic question is: do you want a Democrat who can help Mike Levin retain his Congressional seat? Or, if I’m guessing right, are you a member of the DPOC?

OC Assembly Seats (Whole or Part)

State Assembly Member District 59
Phillip Chen, Republican, Assemblyman/Business Owner
Write-in Candidate to Be Named Later (or Not), Any Party, Any Activity

Greg’s comments: No one ran against Phillip Chen in this district stretching from Brea, Placentia, and Yorba Linda up to Chino Hills and down through Orange to North Tustin and the Riverside County border in the forest north of Silverado. There was discussion about passing a new law saying that if no one gets at least 10 write-in votes in the primary, the incumbent wins automatically, but looking at the Secretary of State’s website I don’t see any indication that such a law has came into being. But if any district could pull off not having a candidate with even 10 write-in votes, this may the one.

State Assembly Member District 64

Elizabeth Alcantar, Democratic, Mayor/Community Educator
Roberto “Rob” Cancio, Democratic, Doctor/Educator/Businessman
Rose Espinoza, Democratic, Executive Director/Councilwoman
Blanca Pacheco, Democratic, Downey Mayor/Businesswoman
Ana M. Valencia, Democratic, Teacher/Councilmember
Raul Ortiz, Jr. Republican, Pest Control Manager

Greg’s comments: This is a tough but winnable primary for Rose Espinosa. La Habra is deep in the minority in this predominantly LA County district, and five Latino Democrats are facing off against one Latino Republican, who I suspect will make the runoff even with the ballot designation of Pest Control Manager (which I realize is honest work.) WHY can’t Democrats learn the first rule of electoral politics and get multiple Republicans to run and split the vote?

Worse for Espinoza, two of the other electeds have “Mayor” in their designation — Pacheco being from Downey (which is big) and Alcantar from Cudahy (which is a lot smaller) — while Valencia is a councilmember from Norwalk, which is roughly Downey-sized. Espinoza needs to consolidate support from the La Habra community (which seems to like her), La Habra Heights (to the extent that they’ll vote for a Democrat) and probably add La Mirada and the rest of the district east of Carmenita, including Colima — as she’s the only Dem who lives there — to where she should focus on the primary. Using 2019 numbers, La Habra has a population of 60,000 and La Mirada of 50,000 and Colima (some of which may overlap of another 50,000); Norwalk has a population of 105,000 and Downey of 112,000, while in the western portion of the district Cudahy has a population of 24,000, Bell of almost 35,500, and Bell Gardens of 42,500, for a total of 102,000 there. La Mirada and Santa Fe Springs (east of Downey and north of Norwalk) are the only major unclaimed territories. (Cancio is on the Norwalk/La Mirada School Board, but her appears to be from Norwalk, so I’m not sure that that’s a plus in La Mirada.) Espinoza needs strong organization in La Mirada and Colima to have a shot — and there will be strong competition for it. Nuff said. Someone can let her know.

State Assembly Member District 67
Param Brar, Democratic, Defense Contract Manager
Sharon Quirk-Silva, Democratic, Assemblymember/Teacher
Sou Moua, Republican, CAD Designer
Soo Yoo, Republican, School Board President

Greg’s comments: Sharon Quirk-Silva will make the runoff , but I don’t think that Param Brar can help her close out the Republicans. If if were just Sou Moua, perhaps, but Soo Yoo is the President of the ABC Unified School Board, and — according to one article I encountered, will have her campaign funded by Young Kim. (You know — the Buena Park candidate who’s running for Congress from East County.) For those of you who wonder what “ABC” stands for, the “A” seems to be for Artesia, the “C” for Cerritos, and the “B” seems perhaps tp be for “Bits of Lakewood and Hawaiian Gardens near them,” rather than for, say, ‘Buena Park.” This district is drawn to cover a lot of the Asian community — it’s a bare Asian plurality with 32% vs. 30.2% Latino and 30.8% white — but the Asians in this district include a whole lot of Democrats in Artesia and Cerritos while the more Republican end in Fullerton and Buena Park already know and like Quirk-Silva. Sharon’s district has gained Cerritos (which I’d think is good territory for her) and, weirdly, moved from west Anaheim above the 5 to west Anaheim below the 5. But they’ll like her well enough to. It will be her closest race in years, so volunteers will want to hop on board the train early and stay there through November!

State Assembly Member District 68
Avelino Valencia, Democratic, Councilmember/Assemblymember’s Deputy
Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente, Democratic, Policy Director
Mike Tardif, Republican, Small Business Owner
James Wallace, Republican, No Ballot Designation

Greg’s comments: if either Tardif or Wallace were alone in the race, they would likely make the runoff — and then lose in the general election. One, more likely Tardif, still might, but Valencia and Vicente have enough of an advantage in this district so that they might both make the runoff. The DPOC will likely do whatever it can to support the sell-out, Valencia, over the insurgent, Vicente. The interesting prospect is what they might do if the runoff were between Vicente and Tardif. Would they rather have a pugnacious Republican — and our archives should how pugnacious! — over a Democratic insurgent who might help transform Santa Ana? My guess is that it’s a coinflip over whether they would go for the white guy in the 56% Latino district. Party loyalty, as a wealthy New Yorker said of taxes, is for little people.

State Assembly Member District 70

Diedre Thu-Ha Nguyen, Democratic, Cancer Researcher/Councilmember
Ted Bui, Republican, City Councilman/Businessman
Jason Gray, Republican, City Commissioner
Emily Hibard, Republican, Small Business Owner
Kimberly Ho, Republican, Westminster Councilwoman/Entrepreneur
Tri Ta, Republican, Mayor/Business Owner

Greg’s comments: It would be wrong to call this is “the Little Saigon District,” as it also includes Los Alamitos, Rossmoor, and parts of Fountain Valley that are outside of that ambit, but — yeah, it’s pretty much the Little Saigon district. It is only 40.4% Asian, not all of whom will be Vietnamese, but the Vietnamese turnout is consistently high. So it’s very likely to be represented by a Viet. OJB favorite Diedre Nguyen will almost surely make the runoff, as in the worst of circumstances she’s only need to clear one-third of the vote to guarantee a spot. Obviously, he Republican side is more difficult to call. My guess is that one of the two worst, Ho and Ta, are most likely to make it, followed by Bui. (I don’t know enough about the two non-Viet candidates to say whether either has a chance — the district is 31.8% white and 24.7% Latino, after all — but I think that the winner among the Reeps will be someone who has at least one sign the size of a California King bedsheet.

State Assembly Member District 71

Matt Rahn, Republican, Mayor/Educator/Businessman
Kate Sanchez, Republican, Businesswoman/Taxpayer Advocate

Greg’s comments: Congratulations, non-coastal East County Democrats! (By that I mean Mission Viejo, RSM, Canyon Country, and the unincorporated quartet.) You’ve managed to get an Assembly race where both candidates are Republicans — something that will likely skew turnout red in the Congressional, State Senate, and Supervisor races as well! And while this is 62% white, it’s not crazy to think that a Democrat could have gotten enough votes to make a runoff — after all, Temecula is in the district! When I was in party politics I made a point of trying to keep this sort of thing from happening — and I guess that this is just no longer a priority. (Did anyone in OC even reach out to Temecula?) A Democratic write-in candidate would at least be good for morale, huh?

State Assembly Member District 72

Judie Mancuso, Democratic, Nonprofit Executive/Businesswoman
Diane Dixon, Republican, City Council Member
Benjamin Yu, Republican, Businessman/City Commissioner

Greg’s comments: In this even whiter (71.1%!) coastal district — composed of Huntington Beach, Newport Beach/Coast, Lake Forest, and every Laguna but Niguel — Democrats did field a candidate against two Republicans: Judie Mancuso, who has ended up roughly in the middle of the pack in some City Council races, but who clearly warrants support here. Dixon will be hard to beat, Yu probably a little less so, but if Mancuso can make it to the greater blue turnout in November than she has a shot. .

State Assembly Member District 73

Cottie Petrie-Norris, Democratic, California State Assemblymember
Steven “Steve” Choi, Republican, Assemblyman/Educator/Businessman

Greg’s comments: I don’t get to see the partisan breakdown here, but this district — Costa Mesa, Irvine, and some of Tustin — looks very competitive. Costa Mesa should come out hard for Cottie; if Irvine had a functioning Democratic Party then I’d call her the favorite. Luckily for her, the thing that might best bring Democrats together is opposition to Choi. Here again, the June race is just a trial run for the election machine.

State Assembly Member District 74

Chris Duncan, Democratic, Mayor Pro Tem
Laurie Davies, Republican, Assemblywoman/Business Owner

Greg’s comments: Davies has the obvious advantage of incumbency in this district, which includes Laguna Niguel, Dana Point, SJC, and San Clemente, and then travels all the way down the San Diego coast to Oceanside. But it also includes some of conservative North San Diego County — not quite to Fallbrook, but including all of Vista, population of 100,000 — so that might pose trouble for Duncan, for whom San Diego might not be the savior that it has been for Mike Levin. Duncan was former DPOC Fran Sdao’s dreamboat candidate, so my concern is that the DPOC (still bearing her imprint) is going to throw a lot of money at this race to the detriment of others with better likelihoods of victory.

COUNTY RACES

We’ve already been over this elsewhere, but let’s import that material to the same page here.

JUDGES (only the competitive races)

In Orange County Superior Court Office 6, Deputy DA Claudia Alvarez — WHO I EXPECT WILL HAVE LOTS TO TELL US ABOUT THE OPERATION OF THE OFFICE UNDER BOTH RACKAUCKAS AND SPITZER — will be running against non-ADAs Kimberly La Salle and Dan Espinosa. Clear 50% and you win; otherwise it’s a November runoff. I need to hear more about the non-Claudia candidates.

In Office 9, being vacated by James DiCesare, Superior Court Commissioner Joe Dane will face off against Deputy DA Christopher Duff. Don’t think I know either, but I know which ballot designation I prefer — unless the ADA/DDA spills the tea!

In Office 11, Chief ADA Shawn Nelson is up against against attorney-at-law Marc Gibbons, who has no ballot designation. This raises the question of whose designation is better!  [rim shot!]

Office 21 generated a lot of interest, but only two aspirants qualified: Deputy DA Eric Beltran Rowe and Attorney Ray Brown. Don’t think I know either.

Office 22 is what all (ok, just a lot of) the shouting is about: Deputy District Attorney (he got to use the title!) Brahim Baytieh will face Los Angeles Deputy DA Craig Kleffman and Villa Park attorney Fred Fascinelli, who has a sign up in North OC.! Don’t think I know either. Fascinelli may (or may not) be the most conservative of the bunch, but I do like him. Is Kleffman really part of the cabal trying to recall George Gascon? We’ll try to find out!

Office 28 has Deputy DA Eric Scarbrough against Family Court Attorney Jessica Cha. These OCDA candidates really know how to spread themselves out!

Office 30, that of the late and widely respected Judge Frank Ospino, has attracted five candidates: OC Superior Court Commissioner Michelle Bell, “Deputy Attorney General” (a title given to all attorneys working in the AG’s office) Peggy Huang, Deputy District Attorney, County of Riverside Alma Hernandez, Deputy District Attorney IV, County of Los Angeles Andrea Mader, and regular old attorney Benjamin Stauffer. This may well be it’s own piece, but fundamentally it’s whoever can beat Huang.

Office 33 has (appropriately enough) three candidates on the ballot: Deputy DA Steve McGreevy, Attorney Brett Wiseman, and Attorney Tom Martin. I think that Martin’s been running every cycle. I don’t know the others..

Finally, in Office 45, OC Deputy DA Israel Claustro and Del Norte County Superior Court Commissioner Kevin Brian Jones will take part in a winner-take-all primary. Del Norte County? There must be some explanation for this.

Department/Board of Education

For County Superintendent of Schools, incumbent Al Mijares has some competition from charter-school stooge Stefan Bean, who says that he is also a School Superintendent and also a parent. This will be expensive and painful, but it’s also one of the most important races on the ballot.

On the Board of Ed itself: in Area 2, Mad Doctor’s Wife Mary Barke has a challenge from retired school board member Martha Fluor, who I’m betting will get one of Vern’s house ads in the sidebar. Christopher Ganiere has also taken out papers. Do I really need to explain things here?

Area 4: For the balance of Tim Shaw’s term, Shaw (if the courts allow him to run) and Paulette Chaffee will be joined by two -last-day applicants about whom I know nothing: Accountant David Choi and Businessowner/Parent Elissa Kim. Remember, this is plurality wins, no runoff, so the two latecomers to the race may have a big effect. This will bear substantial coverage at a later date.

In Area 5, incumbent Lisa Sparks will face a challenge not only from Retired School Superintendent Sherene Smith, but from Architect Christopher Ganiere. In a first-past-the-post race, split competition is usually good for the incumbent And good news for this incumbent as bad news for the county.

County Executive Offices

Supervisorial District 2 has a cluster of B-listers running against A-lister (by OC standards) Santa Ana Mayor Vicente Sarmiento: Kim Berenice Nguyen, Joe Dumitru, Juan Villegas. and Ceci Iglesias are all on the ballot. It takes 50% to win outright, so this seems likely to go to a runoff, with probably between Sarmiento and (if I’m correct that she’s the only actual, as opposed to de facto, Republican in the race and thus likely to get that party’s endorsement) Iglesias.

District 4 incumbent Doug Chaffee is facing challenges from both Sunny Park and Trumpish Brea Mayor Steve Vargas. Vargas would probably lose the runoff — as a hometown Republican told me recently, “everyone on the Council hates him” — but he could knock out either Chaffee or Park in the meanwhile. Matt Cunningham’s reporting that Marty Simonoff of the Brea Council would be on the ballot was incorrect. I presume that Vargas will get the RPOC endorsement. Vargas would be a disaster. Democrats seem inclined towards Park, which is a pleasant surprise.

The District 5 race was going to be crazy enough when Katrina Foley was going run against either Diane Harkey or Patricia Bates — and she ended up having to run against both. But that’s not all! On my last day of filing, Kevin Muldoon jumped into the race — apparently deciding that a male candidate could consolidate the men’s vote or something else. BAD TIMES FOR MOORLACH! Foley will clearly make the runoff, and it would be hilarious if she won outright — but I doubt that these three can be held down to under 50% in this South County-heavy district..

Assessor: Superannuated incumbent Claude Parrish has been heading for a collision with Rick Foster for a while, and Larry Bales decided to join them..

Auditor/Controller: “City Finance Director” Andrew Hamilton gets to waltz into office unopposed on the ballot, given John Moorlach‘s failure to qualify for the ballot. If he can straighten out his licensure issues, Moorlach could presumably mount a write-in campaign, but that’s a heavy lift even for a sasquatch.

Clerk/Recorder: Hugh Nguyen has challenges from “Supermarket Cashier/Realtor” Sandy Kimble and perennial candidate Steve Rocco. No one’s beating Hugh here.

District Attorney/Public Administrator: Todd Spitzer being challenged by Democrat Pete Hardin, Rackauckas opponent Michael Jacobs, and mysterious out-of-county figure Bryan Chehock. Hmm, sounds interesting, maybe we should be covering this.

Sheriff/Coroner Don Barnes is unopposed. Thank you, Lou Correa, Tom Daly, and the pusillanimous DPOC!

Treasurer/Tax Collector Shari Friedenrich is also unopposed. I haven’t heard complaints about her. In OC, that’s high praise!