OC Results 11/3, 10:00 pm (Some Vote Centers)




Recount with Correa

Orange County Election Results

About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)


  1. Greg Diamond


  2. Greg Diamond

    Let’s first talk about turnout. Just the absentee ballots, and drop box ballots received at the Registrar’s office by Saturday, give us 59.95% (which, dammit, I’m calling 60%!) of the votes. That’s a good turnout all by itself in most general elections. A total 70% turnout would be huge but conceivable — and would mean that 83% of the vote is already in. A 75% turnout — massive — would mean that this is 80% of the vote. A stupendous 80% turnout would mean that 75% of the votes are already here. Above that, you don’t want to know.

    The point is that while these are not the final results, they are a lot closer to the final results than is usually the case.

  3. Greg Diamond

    Substantively, this shows OC to be a hugely anti-Trump County. Biden is leading Trump here by 21-2/3%. This suggests to me that the late mail/drop vote and in-person vote may be much more Republican than otherwise. But it’s also possible that we really ARE this anti-Trump. (By the way, I voted Monday night by dropping my completed ballot into a dropbox there — I couldn’t make up my mind about that damned MWDOC race! — and I expect that lots of other Dems and leaners may have done something similar (but for better reasons.)

    • You were right on the MWDOC race – and the three races with good candidates turned out good for anti-Poseidon voices – McVicker, Seckel and Yoo.

      The OCWD and Mesa races we cared about, on the other hand, sucked. (Four more years of Tri Ta, Cathy Green and Fisler.)

      • Greg Diamond

        Yeah — but nothing is worse than what happened to Anaheim.

        At least we haven’t lost any ground on OCWD. Now Mayor Sarmiento just has to come through.

  4. Greg Diamond

    Let’s do Congress:

    CA-38: If Linda Sanchez is winning La Palma by 70%, she’s OK.
    CA-39: Gil Cisneros is leading Young Kim with 52.63% of the vote — and that doesn’t include LA.
    CA-45: Katie Porter leads Greg Raths 60-40
    CA-46: Lou Correa has 72.6%
    CA-47: Alan Lowenthal has 58% in the OC part of his district; LA will be even better
    CA-48: Harley Rouda has a 55%+ lead over Michelle Steel. Looks good
    CA-49: Mike Levin leads Brian Maryott by 1.9% in the OC part of his district; SD will be better

    • Gil ahead district-wide by only 113 votes as of midnite.

      The pathetic Michelle Steel has passed up Harley Rouda. HB & Newport will be so proud of her!

      And we just lost Mike Levin.

      Katie is safe though, and she’s the best!

      • Greg Diamond

        No, maybe, and no.

        These are the results for only Orange County. While I haven’t checked yet, I’m confident that Gil kicked ass in LA. Winning the OC portion of his district on its own is incredible.

        Steel is favored to win at this point, but the late arriving mail-in ballots (most of which will be in today or tomorrow) can still save Rouda.

        I am confident, though I haven’t checked, that Levin kicked ass in the San Diego portion of his district and will have won.

        • I WAS looking at district wide. Except I forgot to for Levin. Levin looks good, Gil is toast.

          • Greg Diamond

            Lemme see: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/39

            Gil Cisneros (Party Preference: DEM) 133,263 49.8%
            Young Kim (Party Preference: REP) 134,556 50.2%

            Hmm,,,. It’ll be close, but I’ll bet you $5 that Gil wins. These next days are all about the late mail ballots, late drop off ballots, and provisionals. Mine from Monday night hasn’t yet been counted!

          • Greg Diamond

            Now YK is up by 2500. There’s still time for the most late legal mail-ins/drop-off and provisional ballots to swing it Gil’s wayy, but I’m less optimistic now. They have 34 days left to certify it, and they might use most of it!

          • And Steel up over Rouda by even more. But I’ve been telling dejected Democrats in those two districts, remember the trajectories of SQS and Josh.

            SQS barely beat Young Kim in.. 2012, right? in a district that’d been red forever. Two years later, Young Kim came back. For the last time. Since 2016 SQS has kicked ass, the the OC GOP is down to throwing eccentric sacrificial-lamb extremists at her and spending very little.

            More recently, Josh won 2016 just BARELY barely, in a district that’d been red forever, and the GOP managed to recall him a little later. Now he’s back, stronger than ever.

            CA 39 / Cisneros and CA 48 / Rouda are likely to be like that.

            Now who do we get to take Michelle’s place on BOS? That’s a silver lining!

          • Greg Diamond

            Good advice — but I’m still hoping to win. And Pelosi should absolutely refuse to seat Steel pending an investigation of *illegal* ballot harvesting — and if that puts a national spotlight on corruption among the Republican Vietnamese candidates, so much the better!

  5. Greg Diamond

    State Senate (9:30 totals)

    SD-29 — Josh Newman leads Ling-Ling Chang by 56-54% — and that’s in the OC portion of the district! LA will be better; Chino Hills may be worse, but is smaller.

    SD-37 — Dave Min leading John Moorlach by about 57%-43%.

    • Josh leading Ling Ling district-wide 62.8% to 47.2%. It’s done. Congrats Senator Josh, welcome back from exile!

  6. Greg Diamond

    Assembly (9:30 totals)

    AD-55: Chen leads Rodriguez with only 53.56. I will check the Secretary of State’s site with an update before things are over!

    AD-65: Quirk-Silva with aboout 63%

    AD-68: Fox leads Choi by 51.7% to 48.3%

    AD-69: Tom Daly with about 75%

    AD-72: Diedre Nguyen over Janet Nguyen by 2% — ONE TO WATCH!

    AD-73: Laurie Davies over Scott Rhinehart, 51.7% to 48.3% — ONE TO MAYBE WATCH

    AD-74: Cottie Petrie-Norris ove Diane Dixon, 56.8% to 43.2%

  7. Greg Diamond

    We’re going to keep archiving the ROV reports (without publishing them, but for later review) through its last report for the day at 12:30 a.m.. As of 11:00, turnout had reached 71.2% — and at least one big race has changed dramatically. Unfortunately, the “What’s Left to Vote” feature, upon which I would normally depend desperately at a moment like this, appears to have been turned off.

    We may move all of the discussion and reporting of results to the page with the double oranges.

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