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UPDATE Tuesday night Nov. 13 – Katie Porter has jumped ahead of Schemin’ Mimi Walters as we thought she would, and Gil Cisneros keeps picking up new votes especially (but not only) in the LA portion of CA-39, bringing him up to 711 votes behind Young Kim (0.4%). And guess who’s crying about vote fraud like a couple of baby Trump Girls? Mimi Walters and Young Kim of course. Greg seems to be all over the Porter thing, I’ll keep an eye on CA-39. If and when Gil passes Young up, I’ll make this image the “featured” one which’ll show on the front of the blog. Gil’s people write:
Fullerton, Calif. – Today, the Los Angeles County and Orange County Registrars of Voters updated their ballot count indicating that Gil Cisneros had received a net gain of 1,118 votes in Los Angeles and 128 votes in Orange County, narrowing Young Kim’s lead to only 711. This follows the Orange County Registrar’s update of their ballot count yesterday, showing Cisneros gaining an additional 466 votes.
Cisneros’ gains come after Young Kim’s campaign released a statement boasting a lead of thousands of votes, as well as blatantly making false claims that the Cisneros campaign was tampering with votes. In fact, four different Young Kim representatives have been asked to leave the Los Angeles Registrar following disruptive behavior. Following the false claim, the Los Angeles Registrar released a statement refuting Kim’s claims:
“We have not addressed anything related to ballot tampering or physical tampering with ballots. Our process is transparent and secured. We orient observer to the process and go over the rules for observation. If observers are not following the rules, they are warned and after repeated incidents, asked to leave; which has only happened in a handful (3 or 4) cases without further incidence. We meet with the lead observers and address issues, if any, as they occur… We respect the role of public and political observers in the electoral process. We have a responsibility to conduct the canvass with transparency; absent disruption or political influence. We meet daily with lead observers from the campaigns and address issues, if any, as they arise.”
UPDATE Monday night Nov. 12 – FEEL THE THURMENTUM! Just like the OJBlog prognostickated, educator Thurmond has now PASSED UP corporate shill Tuck in the Superintendent of Public Instruction race. It’s well known that D votes come trickling in late; a corollary is that when there’s an R-on-R or D-on-D race, it’s the progressive votes that come trickling in late. I think. (And like Greg wrote, Katie continuing to close in on Mimi…)
UPDATE Sunday night Nov. 11 – In the neck-and-neck race for the state’s Superintendent of Public Instruction, honest educator Tony Thurmond is REALLY REALLY nipping now at the heels of Charter School Shill Marshall Tuck! He’s gone from 2% behind a few days ago to 0.2% … and at this rate he’ll be ahead by tomorrow’s 5pm count! (PS. Kyrsten is currently up 49.6% – 48.1% in Arizona; Florida’s SOS has declared a recount in both Governor and Senator races much to the Orange Ape’s Chagrin; Katie is 1% behind Mimi, and Gil is 1.4% behind Young [sorry, “Young” just always sounds wrong.])
UPDATE Night of November 8 – A certain plucky Democrat Assembly candidate named COTTIE PETRIE NORRIS has beaten Republican fedora-wearing half-conservative-half-klepto gleamy-eyed giggly Poseidon-loving Janet-spawn MATT HARPER in the coastal HB-thru-Irvine AD 74 – congrats Cottie! Meanwhile in Arizona, the great Kyrsten Sinema is passing up HER GOP opponent for Senate! See, late Dem votes just keep coming in, because we Dems are all on LATIN TIME, even the gabachos amongst us. So let’s keep our fingers crossed for Gil and Katie…
Nov 6, 11:40 PM – WEEP FOR ANAHEIM. The People’s Council is dead. For two years we will have a five-member kleptocratic majority (plus Jose and Denise.) What a sad triumph for MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF CORPORATE DOLLARS and SHAMELESS LIES. Soon we’ll be finding out what Disney and friends are wanting for all that money. Meet your new council:
So far it looks, sadly, like Mimi Walters is beating Katie Porter – we didn’t expect to lose that one – and Young Kim is beating Gil Cisneros handily. But on the bright side – and this is the victory I would have picked if I had to pick one – Harley is ahead of Dana! (Still a little close for comfort.) How nice it’ll be to put an end to Rackauckas’ 20 year reign and Rohrabacher’s 30-year reign … and soon never have to spell those two names again!
11 pm – Congratulations to Kelly Rowe, who looks like he’s gonna beat tireless Poseidon backer Shawn Dewane for the Costa Mesa / Newport seat on the OCWD – this would shift the balance against the boondoggle … EXCEPT … except for two sad facts – it looks like Vanderbilt is losing to Brandman in Anaheim and will probably be replaced by him again, and of course the lamented Phil Anthony died recently and was replaced by a probable Poseidon-loyal appointe (Tri Ta.)
10:49 pm – I’m calling it for three candidates I was rooting for, although it’s early – Spitzer as the new DA, Jose Moreno for four more years on Anaheim Council, and Katrina Foley along with her whole team for Costa Mesa! (Sadly the rest of Anaheim is looking grim – the kleptocracy is back.)
I’m happy to see Propositions 5 and 6 failing, but unhappy to see Props 8 and 10 failing – a victory for untold millions of scare ads on TV. What’ll keep us up till midnight is Harley Rouda, Gil Cisneros, and Katie Porter!
***********
Nov 6, 9:50 pm – well, we learned pretty quickly that Democrats did not (as expected) take the Senate, in fact are probably losing a couple seats; while meanwhile we ARE taking back the House (as expected.) Florida and Georgia went depressingly; the racist Trumpy campaigns worked on the promising black Democratic Governor candidates.
Locally there are still very few precincts reporting from the OC races we care about; but there are a few surprises – it looks like Todd may be beating Tony for DA; Anaheim looks sadly like at least TWO, maybe three, kleptos are going to win – Jose’s doing great against Mitch, but Trevor and Jordan and both way ahead, and it looks like Harry Sidhu may beat the rest of the field unless Ashleigh really catches up – gross!
In HB’s Ocean View School District, it at least looks like controversial racist candidate Gracey may not make it! In Costa Mesa so far, Democrat Katrina Foley and her Democratic team are totally kicking ass. For Congress, Levin is beating Harkey no problem, as expected – the other three races are going to be CLOSE! Rouda, Porter, Cisneros, will keep us up till midnight or longer.
We take our joy where we can – it could finally be the end of Rackauckas and maybe even Rohrabacher!
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NOVEMBER 6 MORNING. Off to vote now at the traditional Anna Drive polling spot behind St. Anthony Claret Church. At 11:30 I’ll be at a Disneyland Grand Hotel LUNCHEON WITH POLITICAL COMEDY put on by the Orange County Business Council, trying to discern what master kleptos like Curt Pringle and Lucy Dunn find humorous. Will there be more smugness or more flopsweat in the room? Maybe I can talk to Pringle for the first time (he’s famed for avoiding critics.) I’ll let you know everything later, but that’ll be a whole other story.
Anyway then I have to canvass some more for Cisneros, Duke Nguyen and Prop 10 somewhere in the North County, and then I’m expected to drop by the Measure L victory party … THEN I will madly check results for you on this Liveblog, with newest updates AT TOP in the time-honored fashion. What I’ll be most concerned about today – which hopefully meshes with your concerns – will be:
- Democrats taking back the Congress? This is almost certain, but I care most about: Rouda beating Rohrabacher, Cisneros beating Kim, and Porter beating Walters.
- Democrats taking back the Senate? This is a lot more of a long shot, but who among us won’t be at the edge of our seats rooting for Beto in Texas, Kyrsten in Arizona, the Dem candidates in Nevada and Tennessee, and the endangered Democrat Senate incumbents? We need BOTH houses to effectively hold down the Mad Orange Ape for two more years!
- And the Governorships of Florida and Georgia, both with historic black Democratic candidates, both really dirty and desperate racist campaigns, and both crucial to 2020 redistricting.
Anna Drive voting at 9am – busier than most midterm elections here.
Ah, who am I kidding? I care most about local stuff. I’ll really be mostly looking at:
- Will Anaheim avoid the Return of a Klepto Majority by defeating Sidhu, Brandman, Caldwell, and maybe even O’Neil? As well as passing Measure L? (I’ve given up on defeating J&K, there was almost no fight. And I’m also crossing my fingers for new school board member Juan Gabriel Alvarez.)
- WILL TODD PUT AND END TO T-RACK’S 20-YEAR REIGN OF INJUSTICE? (And as a bonus, could we get Sheriff Duke instead of Hutchens 2.0?
- Huntington Beach – please defeat Dana, Gracey, and Tyler Diep, and say no to madness and racism! And get a couple good council candidates while you’re at it.
- Costa Mesa needs Mayor Foley and some of her team. Orange needs Beatriz! Santa Ana needs Mayor Tinajero and a few of his allies! Fullerton needs Silva and Ybarra, and all of us need no more Chaffeys!
So be checking tonight for news on all that; meanwhile here’s a little inspirational missive from our pal T. R. Black:
Hello Young Adults!
Sorry to bother you with this last minute reminder, as if you haven’t been bombarded enough in this election season. I have received over THREE lbs. of glossy ads telling me how to vote. I know most of you are keenly aware of our dire political climate. It is not easy keeping up with current events between working 3 or 4 jobs while continuing your educations as well as being bombarded by thumbful, though not necessarily thoughtful, texts, tweets, Instagrams, Grindr swipes, etc. Life is complicated and politics can be icky. I only implore you on the basis of history: Millennials (those under 35) consistently vote in far fewer numbers in Midterm Elections. I know most of you are WOKE and have probably voted early. Thank you!
However, for those who haven’t, might I briefly (I have a 7-page document with over 200 links just for local politics…but I am trying to curb my enthusiasm these days) give you a few reasons to ABSOLUTELY vote in this Midterm Election:
- Michael delCampo (the legendary Mitch) is currently being held captive by the North Koreans and won’t be released until the Dotard is removed from the White House. These Midterms are a good start in that direction.
- Watching Adam Schiff take control of the House Intelligence Committee and starting subpoena processes to torch the Mafioso Trump Family will be as, if not more, entertaining than re-watching the Godfather trilogy on Netflix. Coincidently, Robert Di Nero is featured in both sagas.
- Those of you with Republican parents can have some fun at Thanksgiving*
- You can put a shiv into the hearts of my selfish generation of old, white, males with only a high school education, who have fucked-up this nation for decades. Fuck us. Take control of your future. Let history be your guide: it may have taken over a day to build Rome, but less than a made-for-an-iPhone movie like Goldilocks, Nails, or Paranmanjang, to tear it asunder.
- You won’t have to go to night school to learn Russian…it’s a bitch…and the syntax is really strange.
I will stop now, so as not to use up the entire screen of your Apple Watch Series 4.
Thanks for reading. See you at the movies (if my passé Movie Pass doesn’t totally disintegrate).
Blessings,
The Reverend “Whitey” Black
* for those of you with extremely rightwing parents, I am still available, for a very small fee, to be your guest at the family Thanksgiving Day feast to add insult to injury.
T RACK ALL THE WAY BITCHES!
We couldn’t agree more.
Don’t know about you, Juice-brother, but I’m exhausted.
The most critical win was Spitzer’s. I what Disney and Moreno want happens to be illegal, there’s a decent chance that he might investigate — maybe even prosecute. Disney is going to regret, I think/hope, waking up Wylie Aitken.
(I almost feel sorry for Jose having won the reward of sitting with those clowns)
I’m not going to start my series of wrap-ups until the next results cone in at 5:00 today. Too much can still change.
“Soon we’ll be finding out what Disney and friends are wanting for all that money.”
Shall we make a list? Could be fun!
Anaheim Voters Against Kleptocracy now becomes a subversive, watchdog group in exile.
The list may be shorter, I think, because of Measure L, but do not fear, Pringlecorp® will bring back the folly trolly. Tait put Moreno on the OCTA board, so that may help, but soon we will see OCTA commission some sort of incrementalist study.
Several Dems have increased their leads. Most notably Harley Rouda.
I wonder how happy the rank and file OCEA members are with both the negotiating and the political decisions made by Jennifer Muir.
I hear the natives are getting restless.
Is T.R. available for Christmas parties? What’s the fee?
Sad to hear that the Toddy Boy has replaced our dear Tony. The squishy hand shake
is NOW “the IN thing” we suppose. Mike Levin is the Amazing one, along with Katie Hll.
If Harley wins, the Sea Change is official. Democrat Congress People in “The OC” for
the first time in memory. Don Barnes will serve us well, we believe. So, the dumbest question of the day is: Who will replace Toddy Boy on the BOS?
We’re rooting for Andy Thorburn!
A lot less for Kris Murray, Don Wagner, and Steven Choi, who also covet the seat.
Draft Tait!
I’d never do that to the guy, but I’d love to see an honest Conservative destroy Klepto Kris.
It’s a full time job. And Tait is on several County Public Works consultant slates.
That’d be a hard one, voting against Tait, but I’d pick an honest progressive over an honest conservative. Still, the more Republicans in the mix the merrier! I’m on a mission to discourage any Dems beside Andy.
How about somebody who actually knows what the County does and how (badly) they do it?
Was that an opening stump?
BTW, Bushala has another carpetbagger scalp on the wall of his wigwam.
And sadly you were right that they don’t work south of Orangethorpe.
DZ—You going to the game Saturday? Of course you are. See you there. –Bobby O.
Can you believe I missed the insane ending last year?
Hell yeah, I’ll be there. We can’t keep CMC from going to the playoffs but we can hang a nasty one on ’em before they go to slaughter against the best team in D3.
Oh good, I almost deleted this comment, thought it might be one of our trolls.
Naw, that’s one of my college teammates.
There is also Tobin, PJ and Squi….
It looks as if Katie porter may beat Mimi in the ballots left to count she’s already up
Over 1 point
What it DEFINITELY looks is that COTTIE HAS BEATEN SILLY MATT HARPER in the South HB / Costa Mesa / Newport / Irvine Assembly District 74!
Worth a lil short update at the top of this post!
*Are you sure about this? Mimi was up by 4 points on Election Night. We love Katie and have tried to help her all along…..but this would be shocking! Matt Harper however is another issue. Matt has been dutiful in our eyes.
You … are .. so.. DUTIFUL….
… to me.
Total Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 437,980
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 33,835
Total Estimated Left to Count: 404,145
=======================*Let’s just say….we have a long way before January 1st.
First-time commenter here, so please forgive me if I get this wrong. But is there any historical record of how the votes in Orange County have shifted from the first report on election night to the final official report?
If there are indeed more than 400,000 ballots not yet counted as of right now, that’s more than 37% of the total vote, assuming not too many of the uncounted are provisional ballots that ultimately get disqualified.
This is something that I’d find worthwhile to track myself – if no one else is doing it already.
*They never count Provisional Ballots unless it is a close election….and then the question is – Which Provisional Ballots do they tally?
As I recall, FWIW, the ROV denies that this is true.
*The Nile or the Denial is not a River in Eqypt. Check out Vern’s read out about those Provisionals….160,000 out and ZERO Counted yet?
They count them last.
Every single election.
Please don’t spread ignorance.
I’ve kept track of this statistic in I think the last two cycles (maybe more, maybe less), so the information would be in our archives.
My recollection is that the number of provisionals in particular tend to shrink.beyond the initial number presented here. The others (especially the ones that aren’t round-number estimates) as, as I recall, pretty good estimates.
They definitely shift substantially left, as conservative voters tend to lock in their votes with early absentees. (This year included — and not merely with OC — if you’ve been following statewide numbers.) Liberal voters tend to leave things until the last minute, perhaps waiting (as I do) for the last news report or last public opinion poll to be posted, in case late information would affect one of their decisions.
Hearing twitter reports that GOP is challenging large numbers of Democratic ballots in CA-45 and OC part of CA-39 that are being pulled out of the counts being dropped to the state. Any word on number of challenged ballots, historical norms, and independent reports of this activity?
I don’t know anything about this. If It would seem to you that perhaps I should know, you don’t know our state and local Democratic parties.
So this morning TWO Gulfstream jets landed at SNA with GOP lawyers on planes paid for by the Koch brothers and the Ricketts (TD AMERITRADE/Chicago Cubs). Tonight, as we speak 30 GOP Lawyers are gathering at the WESTIN South Coast Plaza, where they are “pre-gaming” the invasion on Ned Kelley’s ROV Office later this week.
Aren’t they rather late for this?
Shit, the Democrats are doing so scandalously good in California, that it looks like Diane Harkey’s place on the Board of Equalization (District 4) will be taken by the Democratic candidate, for what that’s worth. I don’t think THAT was even on our radar. Some… Shafer guy.
Scott Lay says check in again at 5 tonight for important LA results:
“In the heated education war, those supporting the position of education unions celebrated last night when Tony Thurmond gained the lead in the SPI race. That lead will likely increase tonight when we get the Los Angeles update. That update is expected around 5pm.
“Watch results in CA39 (Fullerton-Diamond Bar), where around 30% of the voters are in Los Angeles County. So far, Gil Cisneros (D) has a 12.6% advantage in that part of the district. Young Kim (R) leads in Orange County by 9.4%. Kim currently leads Cisneros by 2,423 votes and tonight is significant. Unlike the OC updates we have been getting, LA reports results twice per week, but counting is ongoing.”
Our new BoE rep looks pretty silly. Oh well, they can’t do much anymore anyway. The agency may even be abolished.
https://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2018/may/03/ticker-mike-schaefer-80-running-office-again/
It was on our radar. We (as in I) even endorsed Schaefer. And a win was always possible, even if improbable. This result is partly “blue wave” and partly a sign of how much everyone in politics seems to hate former Sen. Joel Anderson. Losing to Mike Schaefer is the most appropriate humiliation imaginable for him to finish off, one hopes, his political career.
Schaefer
(of, as I recall, Tustin)is the guy whose candidate statement said that he was Frank Zappa’s schoolmate, the father of someone who is involved in Coachella and who knew one of the Beatles, or some such, and a former part of some ungodly huge number or organization, as well as the person who forced random alphabetization of the ballot. (I’m reciting this from memory, so standard caveats apply — but I think I published the statement in all its glory back before the primary.)I endorsed him in the race at this instigation of the far, far, far superior candidate David Dodson, who along with one of the other credible Democrats who lost (“credible” excluding Maddox-Lopez, without whose competition in the same area Dobson might well be the one winning this race) has been showing Schaefer the ropes and explaining to him what he’d need to do once elected. I’ve been wondering why that pre-primary post has been getting so much play recently — second only to the “endorsements of judges” post — and this may well be why: so far as I can tell, we’re the venue that offered the most complete coverage of the race, by a longshot. If that piece, which led to an extended conversation between me and Dobson (as I recall, initiated by his charming and supportive wife), made the difference in this race — and may eventually lead to whistleblower Dobson being someone whom the legislature should listen to as it considers reform of these functions — then I am beyond thrilled.
The BOE is now more likely than ever to be phased out altogether — over the objection of … well, pretty much nobody anymore — so this is a fitting end. Dodson has already demonstrated that he should be one of those assigned to the residual task of supervising County Assessors, which is something that our state and county could certainly use. I don’t remember his pitch offhand, but I think it had something to do with efficiency, accuracy, honesty, and respect for taxpayers — all of which is a platform that the extended OJB clan could presumably get behind.
No, he’s not the one from Tustin — that was John Kelley, a Republican and probably Dodson’s fellow tutor of Schaefer (as it sure wasn’t Ken Lopez Maddox Lopez) — and I only summarized his ballot statement rather than printing it verbatim — but the rest is pretty much correct, as you can see here.
Here’s that summary of his statement, from May: