Candidate Filing, Two Days Left: Travis Loitering on Gov Race; Will Royce Jump Back In?


Friday is the last day for candidates to file for races in which the incumbent — term-limited Governor Jerry Brown, for example — is not eligible to seek re-election.  (Races where an incumbent could file for re-election but doesn’t get through the door of their home county’s Registrar of Voters’ office by 5:00 p.m. — Ed Royce’s CA-39 and Darrell Issa’s CA-49, for example — the deadline is extended until Wednesday with the incumbent barred from re-entering the race.)  So we’re overdue for a clear look at who’s in and who’s out, before most races are set.  We’ll start with the state executive races — where OC could yet make what passes for big news — and work our way all the way down to AD-74.

By the way — stay alert for the possibility of the shocker story of the year, where Royce or Issa take a look at the lineup in their races and decide that they like how it looks and jump back in, ending filing five days earlier than expected.  This is a longshot, but with so many freaking Democrats in the races and unable to get out once they’ve declared their candidacy, it could be tempting to certain types of megalomaniacs.  The key indicator here is: how many Republicans have actually filed, rather than just announcing?  But we’ll get to that in due time.


Speaking of candidates with a flair for the dramatic, the only interesting contribution OC has to make in any of the state executive races regards whether Travis (the Peacock) Allen actually gets into the Governor’s race or not.  Travis, fourteen months (appropriately enough) after accusing the Democrat legislators of supporting teen prostitution — before dropping mention of this (alleged) atrocity because apparently Travis Allen doesn’t care enough about stopping teen prostitution to continue talking about it once the photo shoot is over — still has not actually, you know,  signed up to run for Governor in what is presumably his home county!  He’s making all of the moves one would expect of a hapless and doomed candidate — a rally in Buena Park, calling on Attorney General Sessions to sue his state — but if he’s in a car accident on the way to the OC ROV tomorrow morning and spends more than 33 hours in the hospital, he’s not running after all.  Is the AN … TICI … … … … PATION killing you?  Apparently, it’s what Travis is relying on.  So up he and his teen prostitutes go onto our Photo of the Day.  STAY OUT OF TRACTION, TRAVIS!  We need you on the stump, explaining your silence on the teen prostitution issue that vaulted you into the public almost-eye.

In other races, Konstantinos Roditis is definitely in the race against State Controller  Betty Yee, which is going to allow him to say at dinner parties for the rest of his life that he ran for statewide office and got his name in the paper.  See, Travis, that’s how it’s done!

The only other race in which anyone notable from OC seems to be running is the 4th District Board of Equalization seat — a Board from which  the legislature has stripped most of its power — in which Republican Greg Raths and Democratic-ish Ken Lopez-Maddox seek to succeed Diane Harkey.  Twelve people have filed in OC to run for U.S. Senate as well, including none of the people who have any chance to win.

OK, on to the races that matter:


39th District

In OC — and yes, we’ll check LA and San Berdoo for you as well this time! — 18 people have started the process of filing, though only seven of them are (even arguably) as yet on the ballot.  Those three are:

  • Democrat Suzi Park Leggett
  • Democrat Herbert Lee, in OC, where he lives, filed signatures in lieu and candidate statement only, but in LA, where he doesn’t live, apparently filed nomination papers.  Apparently he thinks that LA is the “official” filing.  Well, who knows, huh?
  • [LA] Democrat Camilla Kuo Liou, filed nomination papers
  • Republican Young Kim
  • Republican Shawn Nelson
  • [LA] Republican Andrew Sarega, filed nomination papers
  • NPP Phil Liberatore, filed nothing in OC, but filed nomination papers in LA

We’ll break the others down by party, showing the progress of each:

  • Democrat Phil Janowicz, filed signatures in lieu only
  • Democrat Sam Jammal, filed signatures in lieu only
  • Democrat Nathan Troutman, filed nothing
  • Democrat Sophia Alexander, filed sigs in lieu and paid filing fee only
  • Democrat Mai Khanh Tran, filed nomination papers and paid filing fee only, [LA] filed nomination papers where she reportedly doesn’t live
  • Democrat Andy Thorburn, paid filing fee only
  • Democrat Gil Cisneros, paid filing fee only
  • [LA] Democrat Jay Chen, filed nothing
  • [LA] Democrat Ted Rusk, filed nothing
  • [LA] Democrat Cybil Steed, filed nothing
  • Republican John Cullum, filed signatures in lieu, paid filing fee, only
  • Republican Mark Gaouette. filed nothing
  • Republican Steve Vargas, paid filing fee only
  • Republican Michael McKay. filed nothing
  • [LA] Republican Bob Huff, filed nothing
  • [LA] Amer. Indep, Ted Alemayhu, filed nothing
  • [LA] NPP Melissa “Sharkie” Garza, filed nothing
  • NPP Karen Schatzle, filed nomination papers, sigs in lieu, paid filing fee only
  • [SB] ??? Steve Cox, filed declaration of candidacy and met nomination sig requirement, but not yet on ballot; not sure how to interpret San Berdoo ROV report

Honestly, if I were Ed Royce, I would probably take a look at that list and — if it looks like both centi-billionaires and Jay Chen and Bob Huff and Karen Schatzle have still not filed, in the expectation that they can do so next week — I would file on Friday at 5:00 and slam the door in their faces.  He doesn’t have to campaign — or even to put in a ballot designation or candidate statement.  If he stood aside after entering the race, it would create a probable Young Kim vs. Shawn Nelson runoff.)  My point is: Chen, Thorburn, Cisneros — AT LEAST ONE OF YOU has to file tomorrow to stave off a brilliant move by Royce!  (Sorry, Janowitz and Jammal, et al.: I don’t think that Royce is at all scared of you.)

45th District

Four candidates are already on the ballot.  They are:

  • Republican incumbent Mimi Walters
  • NPP John Graham
  • Democrat Kia Hamadanchy
  • Democrat Katie Porter

Also “on the board” are:

  • Democrat Brian Forde, who has filed everything necessary to run but has not yet been officially listed as “qualified” for the ballot, which I believe is a Sec of State thing
  • Democrat James Baxter who has filed nothing
  • Democrat Dave Min, who has filed sigs in lieu, and his filing fee only

The dangers here for Democrats, at this point, are (1) a runoff between Mimi Walters and John Graham (which seems unlikely, but I don’t know much about Graham). (2) enough Mimi voters deciding to elect the unknown James Baxter (which seems unlikely, but I don’t know much about Baxter), or (3) a late entry into the race by another Republican.  If none of these happen, then you essentially have a parallel Republican primary with one candidate and Democratic primary with who-care-how-many candidates that will lead to one nominee from either party, so Democrats would be able to relax already.

[Full disclosure: I have filed a challenge to Min’s CDP endorsement, but that is a story for another time and post.]

46th District

Three candidates have qualified for the ballot:

  • Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa
  • NPP Ed Rushman
  • NPP Will Johnson

Also on the board are:

  • Democrat Alan Mark Schlar
  • Republican Russell Rene Lambert
  • Republican David Tran
  • Republican Benjamin Saul Garrett
  • Republican Maria Arlina Slater
  • Republican Adam Orozco
  • Republican Jeffrey Johnston

A clever Democratic party, in such a situation, would ask everyone with the last name beginning A-G to vote for Schlar, with H-Z voting for Correa, and thus shut the Republicans (or the NPPs, for that matter) out of the general election.  We in OC are not that party.

47th District

Three candidates are on the ballot, all of whom are from LA County, inasmuch as I can follow their report (which is better than San Bernardino’s but far inferior to OC’s).

  • Incumbent Democrat Alan Lowenthal
  • Republican David Michael Clifford
  • Republican John Briscoe

Also on the board are:

  • Peace & Freedom’s Lee Harrison Chauser, who has’t done much
  • NPP Karen Schatzle, who hasn’t done anything in this race

So, as usual, this looks to be a Lowenthal vs. random LA Republican race

48th District

Five of the 19 (!) candidates on the board have qualified for the ballot on this one:

  • Incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher
  • Republican John Gabbard
  • Democrat Hans Keirstead
  • Democrat Tony Zarkades
  • Democrat Rachel Payne

The 14 others on the board are:

  • Democrat Omar Siddiqui, who has paid his fee and filed his nomination papers but not his declaration of candidacy, and no I am not sure where that leaves him
  • Democrat Harley Rouda, who has seemingly completed all of the steps but not yet qualified
  • Democrat Deannie Schaarsmith, who has seemingly completed all of the steps but not yet qualified
  • Democrat Laura Oatman, who seems to lack only the filed declaration of candidacy
  • Democrat Michael Kotick, who has filed his nomination papers and paid his fee only
  • Democrat Boyd Roberts, who has filed nothing
  • Republican Stelian Onofrei, who has filed signs in lieu and paid his fee only
  • Republican Paul Martin, who has paid the filing fee but filed nothing
  • Republican Chase Geiser, who has filed nothing
  • Republican Shastina Sandman, who has filed nothing
  • Republican Scott Baugh, who was only on the board if Dana dropped out, which didn’t happen
  • Libertarian Brandon Reiser, who has completed all of the steps but not yet qualified
  • NPP Edward Loyd, who has paid his fee and filed nomination papers
  • NPP Kevin Kensinger, who has paid the filing fee but filed nothing

Democrats will carve up their votes here horribly.  The only question is whether non-Dana non-Dems will carve up their far smaller share of the vote horribly enough that Dems get away with their inability to navigate the race.

49th District

(Remember: unless Issa emerges from the politically dead by tomorrow — and it could happen — this will go until next Wednesday.)  Four candidates have qualified for the ballot from OC, and one more from San Diego.  They are:

  • [SD] Democrat Doug Applegate
  • [OC] Democrat Mike Levin
  • [OC] Republican Brian Maryott
  • [OC] Republican Diane Harkey
  • [OC] Republican Mike Schmitt

Besides those five, there are 14 other names on the board in OC and and 13 other names on the board in San Diego.  Happily, 4 of them overlap, so that’s only 24 other candidates — but still, that’s a total of 29!

In OC (duplicates with San Diego in italics):

  • Democrat Supriya Christopher, who has filed nothing
  • Republican Joshua Schoonover, who filed in SD and a candidate statement in OC
  • Republican Rocky Chavez, who has NOT yet filed in his home county of SD but has filed a candidate statement in OC
  • Republican Joshua Hancock, who has filed sigs in lieu only
  • Republican Christina Borghese, who has filed sigs in lieu only
  • Republican David Arnold, who has filed nothing

In SD, which provides almost no info on progress towards completion of filing  and also doesn’t report candidate party identification, so it’s provided only when otherwise known:

  • Democrat Sara Jacobs
  • Democrat Paul Kerr
  • Republican Rocky Chavez
  • Republican Kristin Gaspar
  • Republican Joshua Hancock
  • Republican Joshua Schoonover
  • Republican David Medway
  • Republican Craig Nordal
  • Peace & Freedom’s Jordan Mills
  • K9 Party’s Robert Pendleton
  • ??? Daniel Perlman
  • ??? Danielle St. John
  • Democrat Christina Prejean [reportedly withdrawn before filing]

Do you really wonder why I think that Issa may look at this list and then sneak back in Friday afternoon tomorrow and take his chances after all?


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)