2016’s Unsettled Races, Thurs. Dec. 1 Results: We’re Now Calling Every Race — but Not Publicly!

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Trump really did this. Choose a caption: (A) Voting by Male (B) Damaged, damaged, damaged ballot (C) Let's be glad that he's more of a Sharpie than a fountain pen kind of guy

Not made up.  Trump really did this. Choose a caption: (A) Voting by Male; (B) Damaged, damaged, damaged ballot; (C) Let’s be glad he’s more of a Sharpie than a fountain pen kind of guy; (D) Is that book entitled “Nippled ‘Merica”?; (E) “The Aristocrats!”

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 1,535,967
Precinct Registration 1,535,967
Precinct Ballots Cast 505,161 32.9%
Early Ballots Cast 27,526 1.8%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 694,949 45.2%
Total Ballots Cast 1,227,636 79.9%

Headlines:

  • Final (supposedly) No LA tally today; (supposedly) final LA tally is to be released tomorrow
  • Applegate’s deficit drops to 1,944
  • Newman’s overall lead rises from the lovely 2,468 to the more prosaic 2,474
  • Alvarez’s margin over Cano in SAUSD dips below 60
  • Martinez and Do — sigh
  • Anaheim District 1 frozen in amber
  • Moreno still struggling to meet the “criticial in order to claim a mandate” 36.00001% level!  (This is totally made up, just to keep you coming back each day to read more)
  • Measure OO lead drops from 11 to -5 to now -8 — TOT’s Ma-Goats!
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th District
Completed Precincts: 102 of 102
Vote Count Percentage
* DARRELL ISSA (REP) 47,656 60.5%
DOUG APPLEGATE (DEM) 31,093 39.5%

BEFORE:

Issa 47,634 107,548 155,182 50.3236%
Applegate 31,088 122,098 153,186 49.6764%

NOW:

Issa 47,656 107,753 155,409 50.3147%
Applegate 31,093 122,372 153,465 49.6853%

Issa loses 71 votes in San Diego on 275 to 204 (479 counted), but gains 17 in OC, 22-5.  His lead drops to 1,944.  Why are OC’s late ballots tilting so heavily towards Issa?  My guess is: they’re damaged or otherwise not machine readable, possibly due to something like having been filled out in crayon or charcoal.  (That’s just a guess.)  OC seems like it’s almost ready to close up shop, but San Diego doesn’t, so expect this to narrow a little further — but, based on the trend, probably by no more than in the low three figures.

STATE SENATOR 29th District
Completed Precincts: 400 of 400
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 120,582 50.7%
LING LING CHANG (REP) 117,416 49.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

BEFORE:

Chang 117,370 15,565 24,574 157,509 49.6113%
Newman 120,528 13,226 26,223 159,977 50.3887%

NOW:

Chang 117,416 15,576 24,574 157,566 49.6105%
Newman 120,582 13,235 26,223 160,040 50.3895%

Newman’s overall margin rises to 2,474.  Newman picks up 54 to 46 votes in OC — his margin now being 3.166 — a more Chang-friendly result that suggests to be that this race too has moved into the “damaged ballots” phase.  The Chino Hills result is unremarkable, so I won’t remark.  LA, again, reports tomorrow.

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 24,512 21.2%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 21,834 18.9%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 15,230 13.2%
ANGIE CANO 15,171 13.1%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 13,620 11.8%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 13,512 11.7%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 11,902 10.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

A fresh infusion of 98 ballots counted.  Alvarez’s lead over Cano slips from 66 down to 59.  Not-so-fun fact for Alvarez: with 9 new votes, he finished LAST today in the field of seven candidates.  Rodriguez finished first with 25.

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 76,164 50.2%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 75,517 49.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Do picks up 25 to Michelle’s 33.  Margin is 647.  You know who’s most frustrated?  Janet Nguyen and Phat Bui!

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,646 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,354 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,856 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,901 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 809 6.1%
ANGEL VANSTARK 400 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 397 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Barnes picks up 3 votes with only 9 votes counted.  Her margin is at 292.  Seems pretty safe.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,642 36.0%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,569 35.4%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,903 14.7%
JENNIFER RIVERA 975 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 815 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

If Jennifer Rivera runs again just to draw votes away from other Latino candidates, I want to put out “Jennifer Rivera: Not a Dead Singer, a Dead Duck!” signs for her, just to flush her out.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,647 36.0%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,575 35.4%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,906 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 976 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 817 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if an

Margin is 72 with 17 votes counted.  Moreno falls from 35.9733415995% to 35.96470861%.  A damned shame.  It’s those damaged ballots….

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 15,031 50.0%
No 15,039 50.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

With new 7 ballots in, 5 were “NO,” so the margin is up to 8.   We could be heading out of “got to at least try a recount” range here.

OK, OK: ONE LAST (simplified) WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? while we still can.

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 416,694

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 405,252

Total Estimated Left to Count: 11,442

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 98,806

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 98,714

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 92

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000

Total provisionals counted: 118,713

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 11,287

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 146,674

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 146,611

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 63

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,014

Total election day paper ballots counted: 27,014

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

The rumor has been that the ROV would have its last report tomorrow.  I tend to doubt it.  These results are released with some lag — I’m told it’s about a day.  Unless they essentially finished counting today and are just tabulating for tomorrow’s report, then they’ll be working at their abacuses (or whatever) tomorrow and the final report should come on Monday.  And if that’s happening, why not work at a little less stressful pace and allow people to come in over the weekend?  I presume that the 1% canvass (which usually changes only a handful of votes) is already well underway, rather than their trying to sprint through around 12,300 ballots starting on Monday.  So let’s not yet say adieu to “What’s Left to Count?” but only au revoir.

As for our other customary features here — you can do your own math.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)