2016’s Unsettled Races, Wed. Nov. 16’s Results: The Wisdom of Satchel Paige Comes to Anaheim

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In Anaheim, in SD-29, and other places, the wisdom of Satchel Paige rings loud and clear today.

Jordan Brandman, Ling-Ling Chang, and others are hearing the wisdom of baseball great Satchel Paige today:  “Don’t look back, someone might be gaining on you.”  After a tumultuous and heavy day on the electoral scoreboard, the character of some close races seems to have shifted — although, for leading candidates like Denise Barnes and Sharon Quirk-Silva, a modest lead has significantly grown.

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 108,000  (i.e., none counted in time for this report)

Total provisionals counted: 5,044

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 102,956

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 134,174  (I’d had this at 184,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 115,046 (had been 67,087 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 19,128 (had been 67,087 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500

Total election day paper ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,500

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 13,917

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count:  13,917

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: 162,778 estimated ballots remaining to be counted = 

4,277 early VBMs + 19,128 VBMs returned at polls + 13,917 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
22,500 paper ballots + 102,956 provisional ballots

Now, a reminder of what races we’re following and what initially unsettled races we have by now called:

1. CA-49
2. SD-29
3. AD-65
4. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
5. South OC CCD Seat 4
6. Brea Olinda USD, third spot
7. Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
8. Santa Ana USD, third spot
9. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
10. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
11. Ocean View Elementary, second spot
12. Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
13. County Supervisor, District 1
14. Anaheim District 1
15. Anaheim District 3
16. Brea Treasurer
17. Costa Mesa Council, third spot
18. Fullerton Council, third spot
19. Garden Grove, District 6
20. Laguna Beach Council, second spot
21. Lake Forest Council, second spot
22. Los Alamitos Council, second spot
23. Newport Beach, District 5
24. Placentia Council, third spot
25. San Clemente Council, second spot
26. Seal Beach, District 2
27. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
28. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
29. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
30. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
31. El Toro Water, third spot
32. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
33. MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]
34. Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]
35. Measure OO

CA-49 (OC, SD, _, total, %)

We’ll start with an exception to the rule of the day:  Darrell Issa’s lead in his race against Doug Applegate went from 4,576 to 4,622 with 10,430 votes counted — 3/4 of them from San Diego.  Sometimes no one’s gaining on you.

SD-29 (OC, SB, LA, total, %)

In one day, Ling-Ling Chang lost 27% of her narrow lead to Josh Newman in SD-29– and that change all came from Orange County.  Los Angeles reported no new figures (and won’t do so until Friday); in Chino Hills, Chang picked up 68 votes, with 62 for Newman, for a net of 6.  In OC, Chang gained 5,275 votes — but Newman gained 6,642, reducing the margin by 1,367.  When Los Angeles County’s next report comes in, today may look like a real turning point.

AD-65

In one day, Sharon Quirk-Silva goes from a lead of under 2,900 to a lead of over 4,300 in race against Young Kim in AD-65.

Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5

That’s it — we’re calling it for Claudia Alvarez.  We’ll have to be satisfied with having out a scare for her — maybe it will be enough to dissuade her from taking part in some of this board’s dirtiness.  Maybe not.

South OC CCD Seat 4

Three days, many votes counted each day, not even a tenth of a percentage variation day to day.  We’ll give it another day to be more sure, but don’t expect miracles.

Brea Olinda USD, third spot

A fair number of votes in today, and Todd is almost as close to fifth place as he is to third.

Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]

Santa Ana USD, third spot

In one day, Alfonzo Alvarez goes from 108 votes down to Angie Cano for the last spot on the Santa Ana Unified School District Board to down by only 11.  I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t pass her tomorrow, but that’s a matter of luck as to which precincts get counted.

Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4

Castaneda finally passes Jensen.  She’s picked up an additional 0.7% of the margin each of the past two days.  We’re not calling it, given the 13-vote margin, but: “Late Latino Surge.”

Centralia Elementary, Seat 3

We’re calling this one for Liz Gonzalez.  Sorry, Cynthia (and Irv.)

Ocean View Elementary, second spot

No change except less opportunity for a comeback.  Knowledgeable native informants, from whom did DPOC-endorsed (at the second meeting and without wide knowledge of her) Amalia Lam take votes here?

Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]

County Supervisor, District 1

Over the last three days, the margin has been cut from 5.6% to 4.6% — suggesting a little bit of a Late Surge.  But when it comes to the raw vote totals over that time, Do has added 6,401 votes and Martinez has added 6,753.  A gain of under 200 votes per day is not going to erase a 5,610 deficit in time.  We may be among the last (if not the last) to give up on Martinez’s chances here, but it’s time to call it for Andrew Do.

Anaheim District 1

In one day, Denise Barnes extended her lead over Steve Lodge in Anaheim District 1 from 187 to 242.  She’s added 456 votes since Monday; Lodge has added 397.  Lahtinen has added 403 — and that’s without the SOAR endorsement.   Disney Corporation, you backed the wrong horse,  Whoever made that tactical decision within your outfit — was it Jill Kanzer?  Our lost lamb Carrie Nocella? — please pass along OJB’s thanks!

Anaheim District 3

And in one day, Jordan Brandman’s lead over Dr. Jose Moreno in Anaheim District 3 fell from 237 to 95 — with Moreno picking up 340 votes to 428 for the other four candidates combined, of which only 198 belonged to Brandman.  This one is not over by any means: we may be able to expect Disney’s legal team to mount a recount and litigation, meritorious or not, before they accept it.  But things have never looked better for Dr. Moreno, who will have survived a truly astonishing deficit in both campaign and independent outside spending if he wins this seat.

Brea Treasurer

If Ullrich looked able to clamber past a 600-vote lead, we’d probably have seen it by now.  We’re calling this one for Rick Rios.  He leads slightly in votes that came out after news of his car accident came out, but had built up about a 450-vote margin beforehand.

Costa Mesa Council, third spot

Mansoor added 727 votes Wednesday, Mensinger added 728, and Humphrey added 648.  If it’s not going to be Humphrey — and that is getting likelier — then I’d prefer Mansoor over Mensinger.  At least the Costa Mesa dirt on Mansoor’s hands is before Righeimer’s tenure.

Fullerton Council, third spot

Taking the long view, this race for the third seat has been almost perfectly stable since the final update on Election Night.

Garden Grove, District 6

We’d have seen a late surge for Montoya by now, if it were coming.  We’ll call this one for Kim Bernice Nguyen.  Congratulations to Claudio G. and Rep.-elect Lou Correa.

Laguna Beach Council, second spot

Even as more votes come in, this race seems entirely stable.  We’re calling it for Steve Dicterow.

Lake Forest Council, second spot

This race is stable.  We have no idea why we’re not calling it yet.  Maybe because we want Robinson to be a little bit more scared about what he does on the SCAQMD Board.

Los Alamitos Council, second spot

Murphy’s lead over Grose drops from 90 to 85!  We really, really want to call this one, but we’ll wait for now — and just savor it.

Newport Beach, District 5

Lowery continues making up ground late!  The lead drops from 655 to 619.  Probably not fast enough to change the result — but still….

Placentia Council, third spot

Shader’s lead over Bunker more than doubles.  The total is still small, but the trend is unmistakable.

San Clemente Council, second spot

Swartz’s lead goes from 299 to 308.  Still close.

Seal Beach, District 2

I think that that will do it.  Given the clear trend, we’re calling this for Thomas Moore.

Villa Park Council, first AND second spots

Slight gain for Kirschner — but far too slight.

Yorba Linda Council, third spot

Haney adds 529; Young slips backwards with 506.

Rossmoor Community Services, third spot

Paul Kalish isn’t making progress, so we’re calling this one for Michael Maynard, essentially out of boredom.  Congratulations!

Midway City Sanitary, second spot

Chi Charlie extends his lead from 10 to 47.  He seems to have the “big mo.’

El Toro Water, third spot

MOnin’s lead has now dropped from 252 to 251 to 235.  Make of that what you will.

Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement

It’s a beautiful day for Al Nederhood — as we’re calling this race for him!

MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]

Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]

Measure OO

Supposedly, San Clemente has a lot of provisionals out, but we haven’t confirmed it — mostly because we haven’t tried to confirm it.  And we’re not going to confirm it now, because this is how we like to end these reports: with an “OO”!