2016’s Unsettled Races, Wed. Nov. 16’s Results: The Wisdom of Satchel Paige Comes to Anaheim

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In Anaheim, SD-29, and other places, the wisdom of Satchel Paige rings loud and clear today.

In Anaheim, in SD-29, and other places, the wisdom of Satchel Paige rings loud and clear today.

Jordan Brandman, Ling-Ling Chang, and others are hearing the wisdom of baseball great Satchel Paige today:  “Don’t look back, someone might be gaining on you.”  After a tumultuous and heavy day on the electoral scoreboard, the character of some close races seems to have shifted — although, for leading candidates like Denise Barnes and Sharon Quirk-Silva, a modest lead has significantly grown.

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 16, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 374,397 (had peaked at 424,397)

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 211,619 (had been 158,616 in Tuesday’s report)

Total Estimated Left to Count:  162,778 (had been 215,781 in Tuesday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806 (that’s after the election, presumably)

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 91,529 (was 35,718)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 4,277

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 108,000  (i.e., none counted in time for this report)

Total provisionals counted: 5,044

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 102,956

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 134,174  (I’d had this at 184,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 115,046 (had been 67,087 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 19,128 (had been 67,087 in Tuesday’s report)

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500

Total election day paper ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,500

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 13,917

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count:  13,917

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: 162,778 estimated ballots remaining to be counted

4,277 early VBMs + 19,128 VBMs returned at polls + 13,917 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
22,500 paper ballots + 102,956 provisional ballots

Now, a reminder of what races we’re following and what initially unsettled races we have by now called:

  1. CA-49
  2. SD-29
  3. AD-65
  4. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
  5. South OC CCD Seat 4
  6. Brea Olinda USD, third spot
  7. Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
  8. Santa Ana USD, third spot
  9. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
  10. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
  11. Ocean View Elementary, second spot
  12. Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
  13. County Supervisor, District 1
  14. Anaheim District 1
  15. Anaheim District 3
  16. Brea Treasurer
  17. Costa Mesa Council, third spot
  18. Fullerton Council, third spot
  19. Garden Grove, District 6
  20. Laguna Beach Council, second spot
  21. Lake Forest Council, second spot
  22. Los Alamitos Council, second spot
  23. Newport Beach, District 5
  24. Placentia Council, third spot
  25. San Clemente Council, second spot
  26. Seal Beach, District 2
  27. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
  28. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
  29. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
  30. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
  31. El Toro Water, third spot
  32. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
  33. MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]
  34. Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]
  35. Measure OO

CA-49 (OC, SD, _, total, %)

Issa 41,766 81,320 123,086 50.9567%
Applegate 26,939 91,525 118,464 49.0433%

We’ll start with an exception to the rule of the day:  Darrell Issa’s lead in his race against Doug Applegate went from 4,576 to 4,622 with 10,430 votes counted — 3/4 of them from San Diego.  Sometimes no one’s gaining on you.

SD-29 (OC, SB, LA, total, %)

Chang 101,629 14,540 18,071 134,240 50.6956%
Newman 99,022 12,228 19,306 130,556 49.3044%

In one day, Ling-Ling Chang lost 27% of her narrow lead to Josh Newman in SD-29– and that change all came from Orange County.  Los Angeles reported no new figures (and won’t do so until Friday); in Chino Hills, Chang picked up 68 votes, with 62 for Newman, for a net of 6.  In OC, Chang gained 5,275 votes — but Newman gained 6,642, reducing the margin by 1,367.  When Los Angeles County’s next report comes in, today may look like a real turning point.

AD-65

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 65th District
Completed Precincts: 282 of 282
Vote Count Percentage
SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM) 64,020 51.7%
* YOUNG KIM (REP) 59,709 48.3%

In one day, Sharon Quirk-Silva goes from a lead of under 2,900 to a lead of over 4,300 in race against Young Kim in AD-65.

Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5

RANCHO SANTIAGO COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 5
Completed Precincts: 24 of 24
Vote Count Percentage
* CLAUDIA C. ALVAREZ 6,559 42.2%
STEVEN A. NGUYEN 5,894 37.9%
CECILIA “CECI” AGUINAGA 3,098 19.9%

That’s it — we’re calling it for Claudia Alvarez.  We’ll have to be satisfied with having out a scare for her — maybe it will be enough to dissuade her from taking part in some of this board’s dirtiness.  Maybe not.

South OC CCD Seat 4

SOUTH ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 4, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 534 of 534
Vote Count Percentage
* TERRI WHITT 91,508 34.8%
JOHN ALPAY 89,133 33.9%
JIM LEACH 82,226 31.3%

Three days, many votes counted each day, not even a tenth of a percentage variation day to day.  We’ll give it another day to be more sure, but don’t expect miracles.

Brea Olinda USD, third spot

BREA OLINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 32 of 32
Vote Count Percentage
PAUL RUIZ 6,884 22.0%
* GAIL LYONS 6,436 20.6%
* KEVIN J. HOBBY 5,271 16.8%
* RODNEY “ROD” TODD 5,055 16.2%
JASON KRAFT 4,731 15.1%
JOSEPH COVEY 2,923 9.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

A fair number of votes in today, and Todd is almost as close to fifth place as he is to third.

Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]

Santa Ana USD, third spot

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 18,012 20.8%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 16,090 18.6%
ANGIE CANO 11,230 12.9%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 11,219 12.9%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 10,864 12.5%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 10,611 12.2%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 8,705 10.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In one day, Alfonzo Alvarez goes from 108 votes down to Angie Cano for the last spot on the Santa Ana Unified School District Board to down by only 11.  I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t pass her tomorrow, but that’s a matter of luck as to which precincts get counted.

Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4

BUENA PARK SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 4
Completed Precincts: 6 of 6
Vote Count Percentage
IRENE CASTANEDA 677 50.5%
* L. CAROLE JENSEN 664 49.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Castaneda finally passes Jensen.  She’s picked up an additional 0.7% of the margin each of the past two days.  We’re not calling it, given the 13-vote margin, but: “Late Latino Surge.”

Centralia Elementary, Seat 3

CENTRALIA SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 3
Completed Precincts: 12 of 12
Vote Count Percentage
ELIZABETH “LIZ” GONZALEZ 1,464 52.8%
IRV TRINKLE 1,310 47.2%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

We’re calling this one for Liz Gonzalez.  Sorry, Cynthia (and Irv.)

Ocean View Elementary, second spot

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 50 of 50
Vote Count Percentage
* GINA CLAYTON-TARVIN 17,159 34.9%
NORM WESTWELL 10,609 21.6%
PATRICIA SINGER 9,633 19.6%
KATHRYN GONZALEZ 6,131 12.5%
AMALIA LAM 5,625 11.4%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

No change except less opportunity for a comeback.  Knowledgeable native informants, from whom did DPOC-endorsed (at the second meeting and without wide knowledge of her) Amalia Lam take votes here?

Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]

County Supervisor, District 1

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 63,297 52.3%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 57,687 47.7%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Over the last three days, the margin has been cut from 5.6% to 4.6% — suggesting a little bit of a Late Surge.  But when it comes to the raw vote totals over that time, Do has added 6,401 votes and Martinez has added 6,753.  A gain of under 200 votes per day is not going to erase a 5,610 deficit in time.  We may be among the last (if not the last) to give up on Martinez’s chances here, but it’s time to call it for Andrew Do.

Anaheim District 1

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,046 27.7%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 2,804 25.5%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,374 21.6%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,558 14.1%
ORLANDO PEREZ 617 5.6%
ANGEL VANSTARK 313 2.8%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 301 2.7%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In one day, Denise Barnes extended her lead over Steve Lodge in Anaheim District 1 from 187 to 242.  She’s added 456 votes since Monday; Lodge has added 397.  Lahtinen has added 403 — and that’s without the SOAR endorsement.   Disney Corporation, you backed the wrong horse,  Whoever made that tactical decision within your outfit — was it Jill Kanzer?  Our lost lamb Carrie Nocella? — please pass along OJB’s thanks!

Anaheim District 3

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JORDAN BRANDMAN 3,768 36.2%
JOSE F. MORENO 3,673 35.3%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,593 15.3%
JENNIFER RIVERA 740 7.1%
LINDA LOBATOS 625 6.0%

And in one day, Jordan Brandman’s lead over Dr. Jose Moreno in Anaheim District 3 fell from 237 to 95 — with Moreno picking up 340 votes to 428 for the other four candidates combined, of which only 198 belonged to Brandman.  This one is not over by any means: we may be able to expect Disney’s legal team to mount a recount and litigation, meritorious or not, before they accept it.  But things have never looked better for Dr. Moreno, who will have survived a truly astonishing deficit in both campaign and independent outside spending if he wins this seat.

Brea Treasurer

CITY OF BREA City Treasurer
Completed Precincts: 35 of 35
Vote Count Percentage
* RICK RIOS 7,288 52.1%
GEORGE ULLRICH 6,688 47.9%

If Ullrich looked able to clamber past a 600-vote lead, we’d probably have seen it by now.  We’re calling this one for Rick Rios.  He leads slightly in votes that came out after news of his car accident came out, but had built up about a 450-vote margin beforehand.

Costa Mesa Council, third spot

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 66 of 66
Vote Count Percentage
* SANDRA L. “SANDY” GENIS 15,037 18.9%
JOHN STEPHENS 14,876 18.7%
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 12,797 16.0%
* STEVE MENSINGER 12,330 15.5%
JAY HUMPHREY 12,120 15.2%
LEE RAMOS 8,534 10.7%
AL MELONE 4,043 5.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Mansoor added 727 votes Wednesday, Mensinger added 728, and Humphrey added 648.  If it’s not going to be Humphrey — and that is getting likelier — then I’d prefer Mansoor over Mensinger.  At least the Costa Mesa dirt on Mansoor’s hands is before Righeimer’s tenure.

Fullerton Council, third spot

CITY OF FULLERTON Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 79 of 79
Vote Count Percentage
* JENNIFER FITZGERALD 17,484 17.5%
* BRUCE WHITAKER 14,432 14.4%
JESUS SILVA 13,862 13.8%
LARRY BENNETT 12,719 12.7%
JANE RANDS 9,795 9.8%
JONATHAN MANSOORI 6,988 7.0%
SUSAN GAPINSKI 6,605 6.6%
JOE IMBRIANO 5,876 5.9%
JOSHUA FERGUSON 3,884 3.9%
CHARLES SARGEANT 3,678 3.7%
ROBERTA REID 3,329 3.3%
HERBERT GLAZIER 1,496 1.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Taking the long view, this race for the third seat has been almost perfectly stable since the final update on Election Night.

Garden Grove, District 6

CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Member, City Council, District 6
Completed Precincts: 10 of 10
Vote Count Percentage
KIM BERNICE NGUYEN 2,602 57.5%
RICKK MONTOYA 1,922 42.5%

We’d have seen a late surge for Montoya by now, if it were coming.  We’ll call this one for Kim Bernice Nguyen.  Congratulations to Claudio G. and Rep.-elect Lou Correa.

Laguna Beach Council, second spot

CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 22 of 22
Vote Count Percentage
* BOB WHALEN 6,353 33.2%
* STEVE DICTEROW 4,862 25.4%
VERNA ROLLINGER 4,501 23.5%
JUDIE MANCUSO 3,429 17.9%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Even as more votes come in, this race seems entirely stable.  We’re calling it for Steve Dicterow.

Lake Forest Council, second spot

CITY OF LAKE FOREST Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 39 of 39
Vote Count Percentage
LEAH BASILE 12,372 27.2%
* DWIGHT ROBINSON 8,905 19.6%
* ADAM NICK 8,703 19.1%
FRANCISCO BARAJAS 7,006 15.4%
FRANK WAGONER 5,974 13.1%
FARH SEMNANI 2,565 5.6%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

This race is stable.  We have no idea why we’re not calling it yet.  Maybe because we want Robinson to be a little bit more scared about what he does on the SCAQMD Board.

Los Alamitos Council, second spot

CITY OF LOS ALAMITOS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 10 of 10
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH WILSON 2,271 37.8%
* RICHARD D. MURPHY 1,912 31.8%
* DEAN GROSE 1,827 30.4%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Murphy’s lead over Grose drops from 90 to 85!  We really, really want to call this one, but we’ll wait for now — and just savor it.

Newport Beach, District 5

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 5
Completed Precincts: 63 of 63
Vote Count Percentage
JEFF HERDMAN 11,510 35.8%
LEE LOWREY 10,891 33.9%
MIKE GLENN 9,725 30.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Lowery continues making up ground late!  The lead drops from 655 to 619.  Probably not fast enough to change the result — but still….

Placentia Council, third spot

CITY OF PLACENTIA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25
Vote Count Percentage
WARD L. SMITH 6,700 16.3%
* JEREMY B. YAMAGUCHI 6,583 16.1%
RHONDA SHADER 5,227 12.8%
CHRIS BUNKER 5,097 12.4%
THOMAS M. (TOM) SOLOMONSON 4,898 11.9%
KEVIN KIRWIN 4,174 10.2%
ROBERT MCKINNELL 3,936 9.6%
FABIAN O. FRAGIAO 2,698 6.6%
BLAKE MONTERO 1,681 4.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Shader’s lead over Bunker more than doubles.  The total is still small, but the trend is unmistakable.

San Clemente Council, second spot

CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
* CHRIS HAMM 12,732 28.6%
STEVEN SWARTZ 10,286 23.1%
DAN BANE 9,978 22.4%
* ROBERT “BOB” BAKER 9,797 22.0%
PAMELA JOY GLASS 1,681 3.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Swartz’s lead goes from 299 to 308.  Still close.

Seal Beach, District 2

CITY OF SEAL BEACH Member, City Council, District 2
Completed Precincts: 7 of 7
Vote Count Percentage
THOMAS MOORE 1,242 51.7%
RONDE WINKLER 1,162 48.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

I think that that will do it.  Given the clear trend, we’re calling this for Thomas Moore.

Villa Park Council, first AND second spots

CITY OF VILLA PARK Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 5 of 5
Vote Count Percentage
VINCE ROSSINI 1,608 34.4%
ROBERT (ROBBIE) PITTS 1,580 33.8%
HOWARD KIRSCHNER 1,490 31.9%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Slight gain for Kirschner — but far too slight.

Yorba Linda Council, third spot

CITY OF YORBA LINDA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
TARA CAMPBELL 13,703 19.8%
* EUGENE J. “GENE” HERNANDEZ 11,956 17.3%
BETH HANEY 10,691 15.5%
* CRAIG YOUNG 10,434 15.1%
CRISTY LOMENZO PARKER 8,958 13.0%
RYAN SMITH 7,738 11.2%
PAUL E. DIPPOLITO 5,681 8.2%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Haney adds 529; Young slips backwards with 506.

Rossmoor Community Services, third spot

ROSSMOOR COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
* TONY DEMARCO 2,730 26.7%
* RON CASEY 2,243 22.0%
* MICHAEL MAYNARD 2,159 21.1%
PAUL KALISH 1,971 19.3%
SHAZ UMER 1,110 10.9%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Paul Kalish isn’t making progress, so we’re calling this one for Michael Maynard, essentially out of boredom.  Congratulations!

Midway City Sanitary, second spot

MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 39 of 39
Vote Count Percentage
* AL KRIPPNER 10,487 26.1%
CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN 9,415 23.4%
* JOY L. NEUGEBAUER 9,368 23.3%
ANITA A. RICE 5,768 14.3%
SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN 5,167 12.9%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Chi Charlie extends his lead from 10 to 47.  He seems to have the “big mo.’

El Toro Water, third spot

EL TORO WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
* JOSE VERGARA 10,277 27.0%
* SCOTT GOLDMAN 9,736 25.6%
* MARK MONIN 9,133 24.0%
KATHRYN FRESHLEY 8,898 23.4%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

MOnin’s lead has now dropped from 252 to 251 to 235.  Make of that what you will.

Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement

Candidates to succeed Gary T. Melton as Yorba Linda Water District Director,
Completed Precincts: 59 of 59
Vote Count Percentage
ALBERT M. NEDERHOOD 14,231 52.0%
ROBERT W. “BOB” WREN 13,151 48.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

It’s a beautiful day for Al Nederhood — as we’re calling this race for him!

MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]

Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]

Measure OO

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 13,512 50.5%
No 13,230 49.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Supposedly, San Clemente has a lot of provisionals out, but we haven’t confirmed it — mostly because we haven’t tried to confirm it.  And we’re not going to confirm it now, because this is how we like to end these reports: with an “OO”!

 

 


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)