UPDATE x2 – 2016’s Unsettled Races, Wed. Nov. 23’s Results: We’re UN-Calling the Supe’s Race! + (11/25 LA & SD updates)

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IT'S A LATE RALLY FOR MARTINEZ!

IT’S A LATE RALLY FOR MARTINEZ!  But are there enough minutes– or in this case uncounted ballots — remaining?  (Note: the person on the left is not Andrew Do.)

LITTLE UPDATE, FRI. 11/25, 9 p.m.:  Today’s promised update for OC did not materialize.  The “Countdown Clock” is stopped, so we don’t even know whether they’ll next report on Saturday or on Monday.  (We are truly spoiled.)  Here are the day’s developments:

  • LA & San Diego Counties both had small updates, affecting unsettled races in CA-49 and SD-29.
  • Newman gained 1,012 votes in LA to Chang’s 889, for a net gain of 123, yielding a margin of 1,650.
  • Applegate gained 1,749 votes in San Diego to Issa’s 1,436, for a net gain of 313, yielding a margin of 2,690.

We’ll check in tomorrow, once in the morning and once after 5 p.m., but we dast not hope too much.

BIG UPDATE, Thurs. 1 p.m.:  I finally gave into peer pressure (as the only outlet covering the results that I know of who hadn’t already called the 1st Supervisorial District race) and called it for Andrew Do over Michele Martinez.  I was uneasy about that then, and I’ve been uneasy about that ever since, and now I am PULLING that call!  Here’s the latest result:

County Supervisor 1st District
Completed Precincts: 209 of 209
Vote Count Percentage
* ANDREW DO 74,798 50.4%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 73,740 49.6%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

That 1,058 vote lead may look safe, but it isn’t.  Here’s what the figures have been for Andrew Do in every report so far (with Michele Martinez’s total being {100% minus Do’s percentage}.  After the percentages, I include cumulative total votes in that day’s count, all of which are rounded to the nearest 500):

58.9% (54K) – INITIAL VBMs
53.1% (93.5) – THAT PLUS REGULAR POLL VOTES:
53.1% (94K) – 5 pm 11/9
53.0 (94.5K) – 5 pm 11/10
53.1% (96.5) – 5 pm 11/11
52.8% (108K) – 5 pm 11/14
52.5% (115.5K) – 5 pm 11/15
52.3% (121K) – 5 pm 11/16
52.0% (129.5K) – 5 pm 11/17
51.6% (134K) – 5 pm 11/18
51.5% (137.5K) – 5 pm 11/21 <== this is when I called it, with votes slowing down everywhere else
51.1% (142.5K) – 5 pm 11/22
50.4% (148.5) – 5 pm 11/23 <== this is when I’m retracting the call; Santa Ana is still rising rapidly

The rising vote totals for Angie Cano against Alfonso led me to want to look again at Santa Ana races.  Martinez gained 3,052 votes yesterday; Do gained 2,075 — with the margin dropping by 977 to 1,058.   Another day like that brings Martinez — who is apparently cleaning up in provisionals with the Late Latino Surge — to within 80.  And the Tuesday report wasn’t an anomaly: Martinez gained 2,951 votes on Tuesday to Do’s 1,837 — an even better day.  On Monday, she had gained only 1,964 to Do’s 1,715 — which is why she didn’t look likely to overcome a 3% lead.  But there are still 48.4K provisional ballots out there, and it looks like a highly disproportionate number are in Santa Ana — within this district.

SUMMARY: This race is no longer called; and if I had to put money on it at this point, without knowing how many ballots remain uncounted there, it would probably be on there being enough left to give Martinez a late comeback win.

Where else might we see effects in Santa Ana?  In the School District race, Angie Cano has gained 2,091 votes since Friday, but Alfonso Alvarez has gained 2,019 of his own, so it’s not clear how much his 111-vote lead is threatened.  (In any event, this is why this race hasn’t been called.)  By comparison, the fifth-place candidate, Mark McLoughlin, has gained only 1,239 votes since Friday.  The 7th-place candidate, Bea Mendoza, has picked up 1,727 over that time.

For Assembly, Tom Daly had a 38% lead over Ofelia Velarde-Garcia on Friday; it’s now down to 36.8%.  There’s no danger of the lead changing hands … but that’s a pretty steep drop (even though Daly has still gotten more ballots this week.)  Right around 10,000 votes have been counted in that race this week.

What about the Council races?  Here’s the latest in the Mayor’s race:

CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor
Completed Precincts: 75 of 75
Vote Count Percentage
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 33,669 50.7%
BENJAMIN VAZQUEZ 24,090 36.3%
STEVE ROCCO 8,610 13.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Miguel Pulido has gained 4,298 votes since Friday; Ben Vasquez has gained 3,397 over that time.  (This is a big improvement over everything through Friday.)  Steve Rocco has gained 1,074 votes.  That’s 8,769 votes in a three-day week.  (As almost always here, I’m doing the addition and subtraction in my head, so it could be faulty.)

In District 1, Vince Sarmiento added about another 1,000 votes to his lead over Jessica Cha.  Jose Solorio gained in District 3, but it came entirely at the expense of the non-Spanish-surnamed candidates.  Juan Villegas slightly extended his lead over Roman Reyna, showing that two Latino names is better than one with provisionals.  So no calls in other races seem to need to be retracted.  (And yes, the percentage of votes for Measure PP is also rising.)

ORIGINAL POST FOLLOWS:

I’m headed to DTLA for what I presume is the Harry Potter-owl themed music Hedwig and the Angry Inch — update: yes, I am joking about the owl, and my daughter my daughter and I loved it and she got Darrin Criss’s autograph plus a hug — so I only time have time for this:

CA-39

BEFORE

Issa 47,306 101,601 148,907 50.5489%
Applegate 30,871 114,802 145,673 49.4511%

NOW

Issa 47,356 103,882 151,238 50.5014%
Applegate 30,916 117,319 148,235 49.4986%

SD-29

BEFORE

Chang 116,381 14,750 22,340 153,471 49.7736%
Newman 118,920 12,456 23,491 154,867 50.2264%

NOW

Chang 116,683 15,160 22,340 154,183 49.7536%
Newman 119,403 12,816 23,491 155,710 50.2464%

No LA update yet.  Newman’s lead is now over half a percent in OC.

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 24,049 21.1%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 21,449 18.8%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 14,989 13.2%
ANGIE CANO 14,878 13.1%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 13,443 11.8%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 13,334 11.7%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 11,696 10.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Alvarez’s lead over Cano now down to 111 (from 121) with what looks like about 11,000 ballots counted today.  Not over, but also surprisingly stable given all that.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,624 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,329 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,840 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,887 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 805 6.1%
ANGEL VANSTARK 398 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 395 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Barnes’s lead is stable.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,566 35.9%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,525 35.5%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,883 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 962 7.6%
LINDA LOBATOS 799 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Brandman picks up 3 votes; Moreno’s lead now down to 41!  (That’s +3 out of only 40 votes added in the district.)  Don’t panic, but let’s see those ballots, too!

Measure OO

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 14,981 50.0%
No 14,953 50.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Lead drops from 37 to 28.  “YES” added 7, “NO” added 16.  How many votes are left?

Further updates on Thursday morning (or so):

NEXT:  Beyond the 6 races we’re still following (three of which, SD-29 and the two Anaheim races, seem pretty well set, along with CA-49, which is probably set), here’s a reminder of the outcomes of the 29 races that we have already called:

  1. AD-65   [called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]
  2. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5 [called for Claudia Alvarez]
  3. South OC CCD Seat 4  [called for Terri Whitt]
  4. Brea Olinda USD, third spot [called for Kevin Hobby]
  5. Irvine USD, third spot [called for Betty Carroll]
  6. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [called for Irene Castaneda]
  7. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3  [called for Liz Gonzalez]
  8. Ocean View Elementary, second spot  [called for Norm Westwell]
  9. Westminster Elementary, second spot [called for Frances Nguyen]
  10. County Supervisor, District 1 [called for Andrew Do]
  11. Brea Treasurer  [called for Rick Rios]
  12. Costa Mesa Council, third spot [called for Allan Mansoor]
  13. Fullerton Council, third spot [called for Jesús Silva]
  14. Garden Grove, District 6 [called for Kim Bernice Nguyen]
  15. Laguna Beach Council, second spot [called for 
  16. Lake Forest Council, second spot (called for Dwight Robinson)
  17. Los Alamitos Council, second spot (called AGAINST Dean Grose)
  18. Newport Beach, District 5 [outcome called for Jeff Herdman]
  19. Placentia Council, third spot [outcome called for Rhonda Shader]
  20. San Clemente Council, second spot
  21. Seal Beach, District 2
  22. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
  23. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
  24. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
  25. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
  26. El Toro Water, third spot
  27. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
  28. MWDOC Division 4
  29. Measure GG
  30. Measure OO

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 23, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 412,180 (had been 412,180 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 363,644 (had been 350,531 in Tuesday’s report)

Total Estimated Left to Count: 48,836 (had been 61,649 in Tuesday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806 (that’s after the election, presumably)

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 95,890 (was 95,384)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 16 (was 422)

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 130,000 in Tuesday’s report)

Total provisionals counted: 81,589 (had been 69,718 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 48,411 (had been 60,282 in Tuesday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 145,374 (had been 145,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 145,283 (had been 144,547 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 91 (had been 627 in Tuesday’s report)

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 27,000)

Total election day paper ballots counted: unchanged  (had been 26,944)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: unchanged (had been 56)

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Tuesday’s report) 

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 13,938 (unchanged)

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 262 (unchanged)

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 48,836  ballots remain to be counted

16 early VBMs + 91 VBMs returned at polls + 262 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
56 paper ballots + 48,411 provisional ballots

AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!

406 early VBMs + 536 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
0 paper ballots + 11,871 provisional ballots

So, in other words:

  • OVER 90% PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY
  • OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, 425 ARE NOT PROVISIONALS AND 48,411 ARE PROVISIONALS
  • THE PROPORTION OF  PROVISIONALS IN THE REMAINING DAYS WILL KEEP RISING
  • IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE FOUR DAYS LEFT OF COUNTING (WITH ABOUT 12,000 PROVISIONALS PER DAY) PRIOR TO THE MANDATORY 1% CANVAS OF BALLOTS, BUT IF THEY START SENDING HOME SOME OF THE TEMPORARY STAFF THEN IT MAY TAKE LONGER.  OR IT COULD BE SHORTER, BECAUSE NEAL KELLEY CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE  MY INFORMATION IS THAT THEY WILL BE COUNTING THIS WEEKEND!

 


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)