2016’s Unsettled Races, Thurs. Nov. 10’s Results: On Veteran’s Day, We Ask ‘Can OC Save Col. Doug Applegate?’

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On this Veteran's Day holiday, who better to feature on our post but Marine Colonel Doug Applegate, closely pursuing Darrell Issa? (Not doing so in this photo, of course -- so far as we know.)

On this Veteran’s Day holiday, who better to feature on our post but Marine Colonel Doug Applegate, closely pursuing Darrell Issa? (Not doing so in this photo, of course — so far as we know.)

This post covers ONLY THOSE RACES THAT WE COULD NOT CALL ON ELECTION NIGHT.  For races that we believe were settled on election night, refer to this earlier post — as well as to the most recently updated version of the Registrar of Voters results page.

Here is a list of the races covered in this post:

  1. CA-49
  2. SD-29
  3. AD-65
  4. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
  5. South OC CCS Seat 4
  6. Brea Olinda USD, third spot
  7. Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
  8. Santa Ana USD, third spot
  9. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
  10. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
  11. Ocean View Elementary, second spot
  12. Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
  13. County Supervisor, District 1
  14. Anaheim District 1
  15. Anaheim District 3
  16. Brea Treasurer
  17. Costa Mesa Council, third spot
  18. Fullerton Council, third spot
  19. Garden Grove, District 6
  20. Laguna Beach Council, second spot
  21. Lake Forest Council, second spot
  22. Los Alamitos Council, second spot
  23. Newport Beach, District 5
  24. Placentia Council, third spot
  25. San Clemente Council, second spot
  26. Seal Beach, District 2
  27. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
  28. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
  29. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
  30. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
  31. El Toro Water, third spot
  32. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
  33. MWDOC Division 4
  34. Measure GG
  35. Measure OO

We keep track of WHAT’s LEFT TO COUNT right here at the top so that we can be aware of how and when it changes.  All that changed for today was that 1265 Early Ballots were counted.  That category isn’t incuded in this list because I don’t think that it’s been nearly as a big deal before this year.

If you look at the results page — like this one — you’ll see this at the very top of the main data column:

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 1668 of 1668
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 1,535,967
Precinct Registration 1,535,967
Precinct Ballots Cast 389,948 25.4%
Early Ballots Cast 5,596 0.4%
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Cast 441,053 28.7%
Total Ballots Cast 836,597 54.5%

ALMOST EVERYTHING is either a precinct ballot or a vote-by-mail (“VBM”) ballot  — but not everything!

The numbers in the chart below are for “Ballots Counted after Election Day.”  Ballots counted BY ELECTION DAY includes VBM ballots that arrived early enough that they could be processed in time to be included in the Registrar’s big first data dump on Tuesday evening at 8:05 p.m.), and  — with the cutoff of when ballot arriving before Election Day, and which is what much of the rest of the categories below deal with)ALMOST EVERYTHING is either a precinct ballot or a vote-by-mail (“VBM”) ballot  — but not everything!

That leaves:

  • “VBM ballots left to count” (included in the “VBM Ballots” row above)
  • “Provisional ballots left to count” (included in the “Precinct Ballots” row above
  • “Vote-by-Mail ballots left at the polls” (I think that these are VBM Ballots, even though they are collected at precincts)
  • “Election Day Paper ballots left to count” (clearly these are “Precinct Ballots”)
  • “Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count” (again, probably VBM)

But the ballots at the Early Voting stations, at the Registrar’s Office and elsewhere (such as Anaheim City Hall) — WHICH ARE GREAT — are neither VBM ballots nor precinct ballots.  They are the “fungus” that is neither animal nor vegetable.  And so, like fungus, they get their own line.

And that’s what increased yesterday, as 1265 of them were counted, which is why you saw some change in the numbers but not a whole lot.  We learned something about early voters too: they are strongly pro-Hillary.  She got 911 Presidential votes out of those 1265 ballots and Trump got 282.  (Johnson got 23, Stein 23, and LaRiva 4.)  So when people try to get rid of early voting, you know EXACTLY who they are trying to Un-Help!

Here’s the Nov. 10 “Left to Count” posting:

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 10, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 421,064

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 10,015

Total Estimated Left to Count: 411,049

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 10,015

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 85,791

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 108,000

Total provisionals counted: 0

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 108,000

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 184,174

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 0

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 184,174

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500

Total election day paper ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,500

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 10,584

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 10,584

So much for the preliminaries — on with the show!

CA-49

Issa 34,140 62,630 96,770 51.1105%
Applegate 22,333 70,232 92,565 48.8895%

The numbers on the left are from Orange County; the column next to that is from San Diego.  Add them together and Darrell Issa has about a 2-1/4% lead.  This race was the “pearl of great price” for which local Democratic leaders chose not to forsake everything else this year — which (as predicted) was a mistake.  (DPOC could have fund-raised  for years off of playing a major role in taking Issa’s pelt.)  A sizable group of well-informed and decently compensated walkers for Doug Applegate, spending months knocking on doors in San Clemente, Capistrano, Dana Point, and Rancho Santa Margarita, could have more seriously dented Issa’s 60%-plus lead in the OC part of the district.  Applegate may or may not win — but with more help north of San Onofre he’d have been in a great position to do so.

SD-29

See the separate piece I just wrote on this.  Newman is trailing now, but better positioned to win.

AD-65

Young Kim picked up a few votes on Thursday, a net of 18 out of 1,140 added, but nothing to worry about (yet.)  So long as Kim burns through votes with that little advantage, she won’t come near the current 1,552 Sharon Quirk-Silva lead.

Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5

Claudia Alvarez picked up another 66, Steven Nguyen 58.  Margin is 267.  No change in the vote shares.

South OC CCS Seat 4

Terri Whitt added 895 and is at 35.0%.  John Alpay added 954 and is at 33.8%.   Jim Leach (who had had some momentum) added 809 and is at 31.2%.  Whitt’s margin over Alpay is 2,646 votes.  The new batches of votes will have to swing significantly towards Alpay if he’s to stay alive.

Brea Olinda USD, third spot

Paul Ruiz added 107 votes and Gail Lyons added 100.  That’s just for perspective.  Among the two incumbents battling it out for third place, Kevin Hobby added 82 (to 4,536) and Rod Todd added 69 (to 4,350).  Hobby leads Todd by 186.

Irvine USD, third spot

Betty Carroll leads by 2.2% over Mark Newgent, with Naz Hamid another 1.7% behind.  Each of those percentages are about 1,000 votes.  Newgent seems to be fading; Hamid is only keeping even with Carroll.  This one is still conceivably in doubt — but not in enough doubt for me to keep on paying attention to it.  I’m calling it for Carroll and taking this off of our list.  Maybe Chumley will start covering it; he claims to know a lot about everything.

Santa Ana USD, third spot

This one will end up being a cover story before too long.  Ceci Iglesias (+121 votes, at 13,398) and Rigo Rodriguez (+158 votes, at 11599) are both safe and are updated solely for context.  The story here is that Angie Cano is fading.  She gained only 85 votes and stands at 8,423.  Three others are gaining on her:  Mark McLoughlin gained 132 votes and is at 8,205.  Bruce Bauer gained 112 votes and is at 8,183.  Alfonzo Alvarez gained 111 and is at 8,127.  RR, MM, and AA are on a slate; BB is not part of it.  With Cano only 218 votes ahead of MM, 260 ahead of BB, and 296 ahead of AA, she has to hope that this result was an outlier — because if it wasn’t then she’s likely to end up behind at least one of them in a week or two.  But this could be a situation where the Art Pedroza “run Republican Latinas!” strategy works, as she may be more likely to pick up provisional ballots — IF they vote this far down the ballot!

Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4

Carol Jensen picked up 39 votes and Irene Castaneda picked up 29 votes, which was enough to move the margin from 1.0% to 1.8%.  Yikes!

Centralia Elementary, Seat 3

Liz Gonzalez picks up 22 votes, Irv Trinkle picks up 31, lead narrows from 5.4% to 5.0%.

Ocean View Elementary, second spot

Norm Westwell picks up 134; Patricia Singer picks up 97.

Westminster Elementary, second spot

We may come back to this one, but we’re going to stop following it for now, with Frances Nguyen 6.1% ahead of Karl Troung.

County Supervisor, District 1

Andrew Do adds 443 votes; Michele Martinez adds 435.  The percentage lead narrows slightly, but that does no good if the raw vote total expands.

Anaheim District 1

24 new votes counted, no significant changes.

Anaheim District 3

2 new votes counted, no significant changes.

Brea Treasurer

Rios adds 110; Ullrich adds 108.

Costa Mesa Council, third spot

Genis adds 300; Stephens adds 303.  Among the aspirants for the third spot: Mansoor adds 249; Mensinger adds 239; Humphrey adds 230.  Little changes.

Fullerton Council, third spot

Fitzgerald adds 155; Whitaker adds 120.  Among aspirants for the third seat: Silva adds 114; Bennett adds 101.

Garden Grove, District 6

Nguyen has added 20 and Montoya 8 since the last update on Election Night.

Laguna Beach Council, second spot

No votes added.

Lake Forest Council, second spot

No votes added.

Los Alamitos Council, second spot

4 votes added, spread out.

Newport Beach, District 5

Herdman adds 191; Lowery adds 204; Glenn adds 149

Placentia Council, third spot

No new votes added.

San Clemente Council, second spot

Swartz adds 106, Baker adds 105.  Bane trails.

Seal Beach, District 2

Moore adds 9; Winkler adds 15

Villa Park Council, first AND second spots

No new votes added

Yorba Linda Council, third spot

Almost no new votes added

Rossmoor Community Services, third spot

Maynard adds 66; Kalish adds 49

Midway City Sanitary, second spot

Neuberger adds 53; Nguyen adds 49

El Toro Water, third spot

Monin adds 24; Freshley adds 19.

Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement

Each candidate adds 3 votes.

MWDOC Division 4

Finnegan adds 564; Rowe adds 518

Measure GG

Yes adds 95; No adds 100

Measure OO

Yes adds 151; No adds 120

WOO-HOO!  We’re caught up!  And the site doesn’t update for another … 105 minutes.  (Groan)  Have a nice weekend!  Happy Veterans Day!


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)