2016’s Unsettled Races, Mon. Nov. 21’s Results: You Knew That This Was Coming…

.

.

.

Headlines first:

  1. Anaheim District 3:  Dr. Jose Moreno up 44 over Jordan Brandman
  2. SD 29: Josh Newman now leads by 2000 votes in OC (Los Angeles’s next update is tomorrow, during Anaheim’s City Council meeting.)
Mexican Soccer Team Celebrates Achieving a Goal (vs Panama)

All right, it’s just one goal, and it’s against Panama … but still!

That up there is what you really need to know; now let’s go to our normal procedures for these (week)daily election updates, starting with … What’s Left to Count!:

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 21, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 412,180 (had been 408,180 in Friday’s report)

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 340,675 (had been 315,696 in Friday’s report)

Total Estimated Left to Count: 71,505 (had been 122,028 in Friday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806 (that’s after the election, presumably)

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 94,529  (was 93,529)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 1,277 (was 2,277)

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 130,000 in Friday’s report)

Total provisionals counted: 62,003 (had been 46,624 in Friday’s report)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 67,997 (had been 83,376 in Friday’s report)

Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 145,174 (had been 141,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 144,547 (had been 135,947 in Friday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 627 (had been 5,227 in Friday’s report)

Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 22,500)

Total election day paper ballots counted: 25,658  (had been 245)  [no changes here]

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 1,342

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: _____ (had been 14,200 in Friday’s report) 

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 13,938  [no changes here]

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count:  262 (unchanged)

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 71,505 ballots remain to be counted

1,277 early VBMs + 627 VBMs returned at polls + 262 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
1,342 paper ballots + 67,997 provisional ballots

NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT there are unconfirmed rumors that, while the above figures are believed to be current, the ROV’s office may be at least one full day behind in reporting the results of counted ballots.  In other words, the above may be good estimates of what was counted by 5:00 today, but it does not follow that all of the data derived from those counted ballots are reflected in these number.  It may be that ballots that were counted today will not appear until tomorrow’s count — or conceivably even later.  I would consider asking Neal Kelley to clarify this, but he has enough problems with his office now having become a raucous and packed “Politics Central” for anyone interested in this year’s races — particularly AD-55, SD-29, CA-49, and Anaheim City Council.

AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!

1,000 early VBMs + 9,500 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
0 paper ballots + 15,373 provisional ballots

So, in other words:

  • THIS WAS A HIGHER PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY, BUT STILL NOT HUGE — ALMOST 60% WERE PROVISIONALS
  • OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, ABOUT 2,600 ARE NOT PROVISIONALS (ABOUT HALF OF THEM PAPER) AND 68,000 ARE PROVISIONALS
  • THE PROPORTION OF  PROVISIONALS IN THE REMAINING DAYS WILL KEEP RISING
  • (Of course in specific elections, like SD-29 and Anaheim Districts 1 & 3, it might have been much more heavily provisional ballots — but it’s not clear who among people talking knows for sure!)
  • IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE FOUR OR FIVE DAYS LEFT OF COUNTING (WITH ABOUT 16,000 PROVISIONALS PER DAY) PRIOR TO THE MANDATORY 1% CANVAS OF BALLOTS, BUT IF THEY START SENDING HOME SOME OF THE TEMPORARY STAFF THEN IT MAY TAKE LONGER.  OR IT COULD BE SHORTER, BECAUSE NEAL KELLEY CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE AND

And one more thing:

I, at least, do not know whether ballots that have been challenged were opened, tabulated, and included in today’s totals, or whether they are still being set aside and waiting to be counted, or something in between!  This is CRUCIAL to know when it comes to races like Anaheim’s District 3!  UPDATE: Unconfirmed rumors are that challenged ballots have been opened and tabulated.

(WHEW!  Confused?  We sure are!)

NEXT:  Here’s a reminder of what 22 races we’re still following (and, in some cases, will call today) and those 13 initially unsettled races that we have already called:

  1. CA-49
  2. SD-29
  3. AD-65   [outcome called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]
  4. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
  5. South OC CCD Seat 4  [outcome called for Terri Whitt]
  6. Brea Olinda USD, third spot [outcome called for Kevin Hobby]
  7. Irvine USD, third spot
  8. Santa Ana USD, third spot
  9. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [outcome called for Irene Castaneda]
  10. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
  11. Ocean View Elementary, second spot  [outcome called for Norm Westwell]
  12. Westminster Elementary, second spot
  13. County Supervisor, District 1
  14. Anaheim District 1
  15. Anaheim District 3
  16. Brea Treasurer
  17. Costa Mesa Council, third spot
  18. Fullerton Council, third spot [outcome called for Jesús Silva]
  19. Garden Grove, District 6
  20. Laguna Beach Council, second spot
  21. Lake Forest Council, second spot
  22. Los Alamitos Council, second spot
  23. Newport Beach, District 5 [outcome called for Jeff Herdman]
  24. Placentia Council, third spot [outcome called for Rhonda Shader]
  25. San Clemente Council, second spot
  26. Seal Beach, District 2
  27. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
  28. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
  29. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
  30. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
  31. El Toro Water, third spot
  32. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
  33. MWDOC Division 4
  34. Measure GG
  35. Measure OO

And away we go!

CA-49

Issa 47,046 97,017 144,063 50.7732%
Applegate 30,715 108,960 139,675 49.2268%

Applegate gains about 1,000 net votes, cutting the margin from about 5,300 to about 4,300.  Issa’s margin in OC increased by about 1,000, but Applegate’s margin in San Diego increased by about 2,000.  OC will finish its votes well before San Diego — we have 71,000 to count and they have 164,000 — and this race is a a substantially smaller share of OC’s total vote than it is of San Diego’s.  Between those and provisional ballots favoring the Democratic candidate, it looks like a very close race.  Issa’s declaring victory a week ago was dumb, but that is only to be expected.

SD-29

Josh Newman had been ahead by 1,012 in OC — now it’s 2,028, a gain of 1,016.  (How’s that for consistency?)

STATE SENATOR 29th District
Completed Precincts: 400 of 400
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 117,656 50.4%
LING LING CHANG (REP) 115,628 49.6%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Neither LA County nor San Bernardino updated today — LA will tomorrow, I’m not sure when SB will or whether it is already done — but at any rate here are how things stand:

Chang 115,628 14,750 20,169 150,547 49.8627%
Newman 117,656 12,456 21,264 151,376 50.1373%

Sure, he’s only up by 829 votes, but (except for Friday’s 140-vote hiccup in LA) Newman has been winning each update in both LA and OC for a week.  This is already about 10,000 more votes than were cast in my race against Huff in 2012; at the rate things are coming we could see Newman add another 4-5,000 votes to his margin in OC, which would render what happens north of the Puente Hills moot.

We are NOT calling this race yet — but we won’t promise not to do so tomorrow!

AD-65  [outcome called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]

Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5 [outcome called for Claudia Alvarez]

South OC CCD Seat 4 [outcome called for Terri Whitt]

Brea Olinda USD, third spot [outcome called for Kevin Hobby]

Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]

Santa Ana USD, third spot

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 64 of 64
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 20,975 20.9%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 18,863 18.8%
ALFONSO ALVAREZ 13,137 13.1%
ANGIE CANO 12,991 12.9%
MARK MCLOUGHLIN 12,348 12.3%
BRUCE THOMAS BAUER 12,091 12.0%
BEATRIZ “BEA” MENDOZA 10,145 10.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Cano cuts Alvarez’s lead by 37, from 183 to 146.  Not entirely over yet!

Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [outcome called for Irene Castaneda]

Centralia Elementary, Seat 3 [outcome called for Liz Gonzalez]

Ocean View Elementary, second spot  [outcome called for Norm Westwell]

Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]

County Supervisor, District 1 [outcome called for Andrew Do]

Anaheim District 1 [we’ve called it for Barnes but we’re going to continue reporting on it]

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
DENISE BARNES 3,597 27.3%
STEVEN CHAVEZ LODGE 3,306 25.1%
LEONARD “LEN” LAHTINEN 2,811 21.4%
MARK RICHARD DANIELS 1,863 14.2%
ORLANDO PEREZ 795 6.0%
ANGEL VANSTARK 391 3.0%
FREDDY FITZGERALD CARVAJAL 389 3.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Barnes lead goes from 270 to 291.  We’ve private called this, because Lodge’s campaign gives the impression of having fallen to a sidewalk and been beaten senseless with a baton — whoa, where did THAT metaphor suddenly come from?! — but we’re still going to follow it, given the immense stakes.  Maybe tomorrow.

Anaheim District 3

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 20 of 20
Vote Count Percentage
JOSE F. MORENO 4,551 35.9%
JORDAN BRANDMAN 4,507 35.5%
ROBERT R. NELSON 1,881 14.8%
JENNIFER RIVERA 958 7.5%
LINDA LOBATOS 794 6.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

If the number 4,370 is burned into your brain — the number of votes shared by the two leading candidates — you can unburn it now.  Your new number to remember is 44: the margin by which Jose Moreno leads Jordan Brandman.  We’re still not calling this race — but we are feeling good about Matt Cunningham no longer having to worry about a coin flip — nor about his being in league with the Council majority.

Brea Treasurer [outcome called for Rick Rios]

Costa Mesa Council, third spot

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 66 of 66
Vote Count Percentage
* SANDRA L. “SANDY” GENIS 16,886 19.0%
JOHN STEPHENS 16,659 18.7%
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 14,135 15.9%
* STEVE MENSINGER 13,633 15.3%
JAY HUMPHREY 13,577 15.3%
LEE RAMOS 9,474 10.7%
AL MELONE 4,513 5.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Mansoor adds 78, Mensinger adds 78, and Humphrey adds 63. Under 500 ballots added overall.  This one may just be petering out.  Not calling it, though.

Fullerton Council, third spot [outcome called for Jesús Silva]

Garden Grove, District 6 [outcome called for Kim Bernice Nguyen

Laguna Beach Council, second spot [outcome called for Steve Dicterow]

Lake Forest Council, second spot

CITY OF LAKE FOREST Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 39 of 39
Vote Count Percentage
LEAH BASILE 13,131 27.1%
* DWIGHT ROBINSON 9,452 19.5%
* ADAM NICK 9,237 19.1%
FRANCISCO BARAJAS 7,459 15.4%
FRANK WAGONER 6,353 13.1%
FARH SEMNANI 2,763 5.7%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Nick gains ten votes, trails by 215.

Los Alamitos Council, second spot

CITY OF LOS ALAMITOS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 10 of 10
Vote Count Percentage
JOSH WILSON 2,495 37.8%
* RICHARD D. MURPHY 2,109 31.9%
* DEAN GROSE 2,004 30.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Murphy leads Grose by 105.  Biggest lead of the race.  Will we call it — and stop watching?  Nah.

Newport Beach, District 5 [outcome called for Jeff Herdman]

Placentia Council, third spot  [outcome called for Rhonda Shader]

San Clemente Council, second spot

CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
* CHRIS HAMM 14,151 28.8%
STEVEN SWARTZ 11,314 23.1%
DAN BANE 10,950 22.3%
* ROBERT “BOB” BAKER 10,782 22.0%
PAMELA JOY GLASS 1,866 3.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Lead stays almost exactly stable.

Seal Beach, District 2 [outcome called for Thomas Moore]

Villa Park Council, first AND second spots

CITY OF VILLA PARK Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 5 of 5
Vote Count Percentage
VINCE ROSSINI 1,685 34.4%
ROBERT (ROBBIE) PITTS 1,640 33.5%
HOWARD KIRSCHNER 1,573 32.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Kirschner has now cut his deficit from 91 to 75 to 67.

Yorba Linda Council, third spot

CITY OF YORBA LINDA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
TARA CAMPBELL 15,102 19.7%
* EUGENE J. “GENE” HERNANDEZ 13,204 17.2%
BETH HANEY 11,853 15.5%
* CRAIG YOUNG 11,550 15.1%
CRISTY LOMENZO PARKER 9,814 12.8%
RYAN SMITH 8,669 11.3%
PAUL E. DIPPOLITO 6,381 8.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Haney’s lead increases from 260 to 303; she received about 480 votes.

Rossmoor Community Services, third spot [outcome called for Michael Maynard]

Midway City Sanitary, second spot

MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 39 of 39
Vote Count Percentage
* AL KRIPPNER 11,561 25.9%
CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN 10,495 23.5%
* JOY L. NEUGEBAUER 10,270 23.0%
ANITA A. RICE 6,462 14.5%
SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN 5,786 13.0%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Chi Charlie extends his lead with a 214-to-120 haul!

El Toro Water, third spot

EL TORO WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
* JOSE VERGARA 11,088 27.1%
* SCOTT GOLDMAN 10,432 25.5%
* MARK MONIN 9,783 23.9%
KATHRYN FRESHLEY 9,617 23.5%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Monin’s lead drops by 4, to 166!

Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement [outcome called for Al Nederhood]

MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]

Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]

Measure OO

OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax
Completed Precincts: 29 of 29
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 14,887 50.1%
No 14,847 49.9%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Friday: “Yow!  Big day for ‘NO’!  YES adds 692, but NO adds 899, cutting the lead from 320 to 113!”

Today: “NO” continued to steam ahead, adding 291 votes to 218 for “YES”, cutting the lead to 40!  Is this the work of provisionals?  Late voters?  This is why we hesitate to call some of these close races, even in ones where there’s no clear momentum (as was clearly present with Newman and Moreno): late runs do happen, some of them even coming out of nowhere!

And that’s why you read all of the way to the bottom!


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)