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Did Hillary repel Bernie’s challenge for good last night? Maybe — but probably not.
Old friends reunite at Nancy Reagan’s funeral.
A 320-odd pledged delegate margin, you say?
“It’s over,” you say?
Nah. Hillary had a good night (unless you compare the outcomes to the polls that had her winning four of these states by far more), but it’s far from over. You’ll know that it’s not over because, as the race tightens, Hillary will probably panic and start lying about Bernie’s record again. (It’s what she does.) And the race will tighten.
(This is going to get a little data-intensive, although the math isn’t hard, so prepare yourself for that.)
What’s Next for Democrats?
Here’s what’s left for Democrats on the primary calendar — with the South almost entirely gone:
3/22: 85 delegates in Arizona
3/22: 27 delegates in Idaho (caucus)
3/22: 37 delegates in Utah
3/26: 20 delegates in Alaska (caucus)
3/26: 34 delegates in Hawaii (caucus)
3/26: 118 delegates in Washington state (caucus)
4/2: 96 delegates in Wisconsin
4/9: 18 delegates in Wyoming (caucus)
4/19: 291 delegates in New York
4/26: 70 delegates in Connecticut
4/26: 31 delegates in Delaware
4/26: 118 delegates in Maryland
4/26: 210 delegates in Pennsylvania
4/26: 33 delegates in Rhode Island
5/3: 92 delegates in Indiana
5/7: 12 delegates in Guam (caucus)
5/10: 37 delegates in West Virginia
5/17: 61 delegates in Kentucky
5/17: 74 delegates in Oregon
6/4: 12 delegates in Virgin Islands (caucus)
6/5: 67 delegates in Puerto Rico (caucus)
6/7: 546 delegates in California
6/7: 27 delegates in Montana
6/7: 142 delegates in New Jersey
6/7: 43 delegates in New Mexico
6/7: 23 delegates in North Dakota (caucus)
6/7: 25 delegates in South Dakota
6/14: 45 delegates in District of Columbia
Okay, I See a Bunch of States’ Names — but What Does That Mean?
It means that Bernie — maybe not next Tuesday, but no later than a week from Saturday — is going to start catching up. And it’s just not that unlikely that he’ll be able to gain more than a 320-delegate margin in the 28 remaining contests. That’s no guarantee that he will — but it doesn’t look too bad! Let’s see how we ended up in our present position, by reducing each state down to its margin of victory by number of delegates — how much impact it has had on who’s winning.
First, how did Hillary build her approximately 320 pledged-delegate lead? Let’s look at her big wins in rank order:
72 from Texas
64 from Florida
44 from Georgia
35 from Alabama
29 from Virginia
26 from Mississippi
25 from South Carolina
23 from Louisiana
That’s 318 pledged delegates right there — roughly her entire lead. And the only Southern State left is Kentucky. (You can make a case for DC, Maryland, and West Virginia falling into that category, but not a great one.)
Now let’s look at the rest of the states that have had elections, for those that favored Hillary and those that favored Bernie.
Hillary: 87 more delegates
21 from Tennessee
21 from Ohio
17 from North Carolina
12 from Arkansas
5 from Nevada
2 from Iowa
2 from Illinois
2 from Missouri (or so — this is a projection)
2 from American Samoa
2 from Northern Mariana Islands
1 from Massachusetts
Bernie: 85 more
16 from Vermont
15 from Minnesota
15 from Kansas
10 from Colorado
7 from Michigan
7 from Maine
6 from New Hampshire
5 from Nebraska
4 from Oklahoma
The remaining contests and their pledged-delegate totals, ranked by size, are:
California: 546
New York: 291
Pennsylvania: 210
New Jersey: 142
Maryland: 118
Washington: 118
Wisconsin: 96
Indiana: 92
Arizona: 85
Oregon: 74
Connecticut: 70
Puerto Rico: 67
Kentucky: 61
District of Columbia: 45
New Mexico: 43
Utah: 37
West Virginia: 37
Hawaii: 34
Rhode Island: 33
Delaware: 31
Idaho: 27
Montana: 27
South Dakota: 25
North Dakota: 23
Alaska: 20
Wyoming: 18
Democrats Abroad: 13
Guam: 12
Virgin Islands: 12
Whose best states look more like the ones in this last list? Bernie’s been sweeping the western plains — Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma — so he’ll likely do well in Utah, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Alaska, and Wyoming. Those are small contests — mostly caucuses — but together they are 177 delegates. Bernie’s been getting about 60% of the delegates in the most comparable states — 144 to 95 — so let’s allocate 20% (that is, 60-40%) of that 177 to him. That’s about a 35 point delegate lead.
We don’t have great estimates yet for Arizona and New Mexico (Nevada isn’t really like either in nominating contests,, nor is Texas in the context of Super Tuesday), so we’ll skip them. Connecticut and Rhode Island (103 delegates combined) would tend to follow the rest of New England. I’ll cut Bernie’s margin in Vermont in half (Hillary was skunked there because she was below 15%, which won’t happen elsewhere) and we get about a 56% to 44% split in delegates. So we take 12% of 103 and give Bernie another 12 delegates. Now we’re up to making up 47 of the 320 margin from the first 280 delegates we’ve examined.
Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii have 226 delegates combined. With all but Oregon being caucuses, these liberal states might be expected to give Bernie a 25% delegate edge, so that would be another 56 delegates. Now he’s estimated to cut down the lead by 103 delegates out of the first 506 that we’ve examined.
We could continue on — Hillary will probably do well in Maryland and DC, Bernie in New Jersey and Kentucky, and so on — but the message is clear. With about 2400 pledged delegates left to be chosen in a far superior set of states than what he’s faced so far, Bernie has hard work ahead of him but no reason for pessimism. And — now running a 10K race instead of an 800 meter spring — he has time to focus on many of the isolated states in the schedule.
After Wisconsin, he’ll have almost three weeks with nothing on his mind (other than Wyoming) except for New York, Pennsylvania, and the smaller states around them. After Indiana, West Virginia, and then Kentucky and Indiana on May 17th, the candidates will have three weeks to cover three small states (Montana and the Dakotas), one slightly larger one (New Mexico), one fairly big one (New Jersey) — and the biggest prize of all.
California, that prize, is very likely to have a decisive say this year. (So might DC the following week!) Bernie will probably need to do quite well here, but it’s a good state for him. And there’s a lot that can happen to both of their campaigns in the 12 weeks between then and now.
You may not be hearing much about this from the establishment media, which seems desperate not to cover the campaign of the democratic socialist who poses such a threat to Wall Street and other owners of the major media itself. You will hear a lot about people patting Bernie on the head, thanking him for making Hillary a better candidate, and telling him that now, however, he’s done.
That’s all bullshit. He can raise plenty of money and do so without compromising himself. There’s no reason for him to leave the race before California, where a strong campaign could put him in the driver’s seat. The odds may now slightly favor Hillary — but she’s already blown bigger advantages than this.
We on Bernie’s side will not take a dive because we’re not nervous about Bernie winning at all. We will fight tooth and nail until Bernie tells us it’s over. This ain’t some kind of kabuki — it’s a real contest, and we’re going to see it through — including all the way to Orange County.
I’m on Florida Congressman Alan Grayson’s e-mail list, since I’ve donated to that hell-raising progressive a few times. He’s running for Senate right now, and just like Bernie, has been betrayed by Dem establishment leadership for a candidate who was until recently a Republican, and has a lot of money. Also, he’s been polling his supporters to see if, as a superdelegate, he should back Hillary or Bernie; his supporters overwhelmingly told him Bernie. Today he writes:
Dear Vern,
There are two Democratic Presidential Primaries. One is almost over. The other is about to begin.
The first Democratic Presidential Primary runs from Feb. 1 to March 15. All 11 “Old South” states vote in that primary. We have two states left to go, but Hillary Clinton has won every one of the other nine, by an average of 43 points.
Outside those “Old South” states, 12 other states also have voted. Bernie Sanders has won nine of those races, Hillary Clinton has won only two, and there has been one tie (Iowa). The average result in those 12 states has been a Sanders win by just under 20 points.
The net effect of this (Hillary winning the “Old South” by 43 points, Bernie winning everywhere else by 20 points) is a Clinton lead among pledged delegates of 223 (specifically, 775 to 552).
Which brings us to the second Democratic Presidential Primary: Democratic Presidential Primary 2.0. It runs from March 16 through June 7. It includes none of the “Old South” states, because they all will have already voted. It includes all of the Pacific states, and all of the “Mountain” states except Colorado and Nevada (which already voted). The biggest prizes are California (545 delegates), New York (291) and Pennsylvania (210).
Democratic Presidential Primary 2.0 elects a total of 2033 pledged delegates. If Bernie Sanders wins those races (and delegates) by the same 60-40 margin that he has amassed in primaries and caucuses outside the “Old South” to date, then that will give him an advantage of 407 pledged delegates. That is more — far more — than the current Clinton margin of 223.
Almost 700 pledged delegates are chosen on June 7 alone. It seems unlikely that either candidate will accumulate a margin of 700 pledged delegates before then. So this one may come down to the wire.
Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a wild ride.
Remember – if our next President is a Democrat, then that President will need a strong progressive ally like me in the Senate. And if not, then our country will desperately need that. Support our Senate campaign today >>
Courage,
Rep. Alan Grayson
Ah come on. Bernie’s history. From now on it’s just for sport. Bernie knows it’s over. There’s a better chance for the sun to set in the east tonight than for Bernie to win the dem nomination. He can probably still milk some campaign funds from his diehard fans. But for all practical purposes it’s lights out for Bernie. Maybe he cut a deal with the media to allow them to milk some higher advertising fees.
For the first 75% of the dem campaign Bernie went very soft on Hillary. He made her look good when there was a tremendous amount of toxic material to sink his teeth into. FInally he started talking tough after he was 700 delegates down and it was obvious Bernie had no chance to catch up. My guess is that it was a rigged campaign and Bernie had no intention to win from the start. It appeared to me that Bernie was the appointed stumblebum opponent.
I may be wrong. But that’s how it appeared to me.
If I were a Trump fan like you, I’d certainly want to think he was no longer still able to become the Democratic nominee. Sucks for you, but you may still have to face it.
Z has said his second choice is Bernie.
Against the status quo, seems to be his main criterion.
“Against the status quo, seems to be his main criterion.”
And nothing else matters. Like, literally, nothing.
^^^ Agreed.
“Z has said his second choice is Bernie.”
I like Bernie. I was on his email list. I had tremendous respect for his stance against Wall Street. It takes balls for anyone running for high political office to resist Wall Street.
If the general election came down to a choice between Bernie and any GOP candidate other than Trump or Rand Paul, Bernie would get my vote knowing what I know today.
I’ve seen conservative bloggers applaud Bernie for not always following his Party leaders in lock step.
That’s why I like Trump. He’s willing to make enemies within his own Party and put principles over politics.
I thought some of Bernie’s proposals were unrealistic and would never fly – like free college tuition and forgiving student debt.
I only wish he would have given Hillary a better fight.
The media steafastly refuses to describe what is really happening, focusing on irrlelvant stuff like who got the plurality vote or even a close majority in states where delegates are distributed pro rata. I guess they fell the public is too stupid to do the math. And maybe they are right.
The true story of the Clinton “victories” in the South is that for some reason African-American folks are still held under some Clintonian spell; and she has the diehard support of oldsters trembling about the reliability of their SS check: hence a mammoth margin in Florida.
In the progressive Western states from Colorado, Oregon, Washington and California it is indeed up for grabs. In the Northwest and Rustbelt I don’t think she will do as well, either.
Kasich needs to win all of Pennsylvania’s delegates and do well in Wisconsin, Indiana, and New York. It is still very possible to keep Trump from winning in the first ballot (although if such an event were to happen Trump says rioting would occur!). Cruz can’t do it by himself and better hope Kasich does well.
“The media steafastly(sic) refuses to describe what is really happening, focusing on irrlelvant(sic) stuff like who got the plurality vote or even a close majority in states where delegates are distributed pro rata. I guess they fell(sic) the public is too stupid to do the math. And maybe they are right.”
Not on MSNBC they are doing a great job of pointing out and explaining the math.
California will be interesting, 53 congressional districts with 3 delegates each, we might actually have a say in the outcome of the primaries for a change.
P.S. I love the photo of Jr. and Hil.”
A war criminal and his enabler.
I thought the picture was weak sauce. Anyone who knows about the real Washington knows petty partisanship is mostly an act. How else do you explain Obama’s weekly calls to Jim Coburn?
Your support of Bernie is admirable, but nonetheless similar to a Cleveland Browns fan.
Ziegfried- “I’ve seen conservative bloggers applaud Bernie for not always following his Party leaders in lock step.” A telling bit of lore, since Bernie has never belonged to the Democratic party. I’m glad conservative bloggers are so aware. I am sure that his caucusing with dems will be proof enough for True Believers! Nuance was once a conservative trait…fallen, the lot of them.
Oh, I get it now. Had he been a dem it would’ve confirmed the whole thing was rigged. Being an Independent it left some wiggle room for doubt. Clever. Hat tip to the DNC, King Bill and Queen Hillary.
My bad.
“Nuance was once a conservative trait.”
How old are you, again? Do we have a supercentennial here?
I read in the news today that the head of a Bernie Sanders SuperPac was arrested by the FBI for fraud. Apparently the SuperPac was a front for fraudulent business deals.
Now to be completely fair, Bernie had no knowledge of the activities surrounding this SuperPac since political candidates are forbidden by law to coordinate activities with SuperPacs found in their names.
However, I thought that Bernie previously told us that there were no Pro-Bernie SuperPacs operating with the intent to help fund his campaign?
Apparently, according the news, there was one.
What disturbs me even more is that the FBI was ruthless in tracking down the alleged fraudster who ran the Pro-Bernie SuperPac – but do nothing about all the apparent transgressions tied to Hillary.
I’m really concerned about the state of affairs in America that we’re passing down to our children.
From The Hill:
“Brad Deutschland, counsel of Sanders’s presidential campaign, told the Center for Public Integrity that he was “not at all surprised” about Peterson’s arrest
The Vermont senator’s campaign last year said in cease-and-desist letters that Peterson’s group was illegal and “causing harmful confusion for supports of Senator Sanders’ campaign,” according to the Center for Public Integrity.
Peterson originally launched the super-PAC in February 2015, calling it “Ready for Bernie Sanders 2016” but renamed it “Americans Socially United” because of federal rules that don’t allow political committees to use a candidate’s name without authorization. “
Would you mind linking the report that you quoted? I can’t seem to find it.
But if there was a SuperPac operating in support of Bernie why did he say there were none during his public debates?
It might have been better to say that there was one but that is was operating illegally (according to the gist of your comment).
If he wouldn’t reasonably know about it I don’t think that he has responsibility for denying it. If someone asked you whether any of your family members was involved in sex slavery, would you just say “I don’t know”?
The Pro-Bernie SuperPac was created with the nominal intent to support his campaign. While he tried to distance himself from it – apparently he knew it existed yet repeatedly told the public that he was the only candidate without a SuperPac. That was untrue.
My main point here is that Hillary is made of teflon. Regardless of her transgressions the FBI leave her alone. Her husband Bill violated election laws in Mass. No consequences. A Pro-Bernie SuperPac manager steps over the forbidden line and ZAP – they take him down.
If the Establishment had dirt on Trump it would have already been exposed. No wonder the GOP is tearing their hair out over him.
Once Trump is elected the gravy train stops for many of those who have been nursing on the government’s teat.
Trump would be like Dorothy in OZ throwing water on the wicked witch.
So the vitriol makes perfect sense.
“The Vermont senator’s campaign last year said in cease-and-desist letters that Peterson’s group was illegal and “causing harmful confusion for supporters of Senator Sanders’ campaign.”
The pac didn’t support Bernie’s message. That’s pretty simple.
But it existed.
Claiming one didn’t exist was untrue.
It existed, in Peterson’s mind, and apparently yours too.
You and your savior are like test dummies for the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Zieg Heil !
Were you one of those blocking the highway in Arizona?
“If the Establishment had dirt on Trump it would have already been exposed. No wonder the GOP is tearing their hair out over him.”
Yeah, how rich is that? There’s tons of shit on “The Dumpf”, I’ve posted it here myself, but you and the rubes like you IGNORE it.
The Dumpf is right on one thing, he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his lemming-like followers would still support him.
What didn’t you get about his comment that his supporters were “losers and haters”?
What does it say about you Ziegfried, that no amount of dirt or even HIS OWN DAMNING WORDS penetrates your skull?
Make your reservations now to get a front row seat at Hitlery’s So Cal fundraiser. Maybe she’ll slobber on you when she coughs.
You always use the same “physics.” When confronted with facts that destroy your position, you make some juvenile joke that nobody laughs at, and then punctuate it with a smiley face so that we know it’s supposed to be funny.