The candidates’ fears in human form: Anna Bryson, at left, irritated the voters with too many flyers — as Don Wagner may have done. Dr. Jose Moreno simply got outgunned by his opponents’ money — which may happen to John Moorlach. Gary Kephart actually represents the hope, rather than the fear, of Louise Frederickson, but I couldn’t find a photo of Mark Lopez so he’ll have to do. Not pictured: whatever Naz Namazi has been thinking about.
Polls have just closed. This will be your Open Thread to discuss tonight’s SD-37 election results. (Remember, SD-37 is about the population of Delaware, so don’t expect miracles of absolutely instant tabulation.)
Each candidate has hopes and fears.
Don Wagner hopes that he’ll be like Kris Murray, riding an avalanche of contributions and independent expenditures to victory. But he may fear that he’ll be like Anna Bryson, whose continued pounding on their mailboxes (mostly by IE mailers) alienated voters led to her finishing last among Republicans in the AD-73 primary.
John Moorlach hopes that he’ll be like Tom Tait, crushing all opposition on a platform of decency and unselfish service to others. He fears that he’ll turn out like Dr. Jose Moreno an idealistic candidate simply outspent to destruction.
Louise Stewardson hopes that she’ll be like Gary Kephart, a write-in candidate who made good. She may fear that he’ll be like Santa Ana Mayoral write-in candidate Mark Lopez, although I expect that she’ll get more than his two votes.
I have no idea what Naz Namazi wants — other than, most likely, to list your house.
UPDATE 8:10 — VOTE-BY-MAIL RESULTS
HOLY COW! MOORLACH WITHIN REACH OF VICTORY!
I’ll admit — I thought a runoff was most likely, but I didn’t think that Moorlach would be in the lead. This is wonderful from a reporting viewpoint because now we can see whether the early votes differ from the Election Day poll results. And of course we’ll see whether the late absentees, paper ballots, provisionals, and even-later absentees (those still postmarked by today) change things as well. If they tilt towards Wagner, that means that maybe his mail onslaught did save his bacon. I’d also expect Namazi’s numbers to go up (because people who didn’t make up their mind before might have been more likely to ask for more time, i.e., a runoff) and probably Stewardson’s even more so (because fewer Democrats vote absentee.)
The next update is not scheduled until 9:30.
UPDATE 9:30 — VOTE-BY-MAIL RESULTS + 1/3 OF PRECINCTS
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Exciting though this is, this is not as much as it appears. (That’s why I’m including the entire table for each update; it makes it easy to check.) Of the first third of the precincts, which I’m guessing includes most of the “ghost” precincts with hardly any voters (because why not?), only 1,259 ballots were cast. I do not expect the total number of ballots cast at the polls when all three thirds of the votes have been counted to be less than 4,000, given that almost 60,000 vote-by-mail ballots were cast. Not inconceivable, just highly unlikely.
This is our first taste of the Election Day vote, though, so let’s look at how many votes each candidate actually picked up in the second tally as opposed to the first. Those figures are in bold:
MOORLACH: 29,729 – 28,868 = 861
WAGNER: 26,715 – 26,048 = 667
NAMAZI: 2,178 – 2,136 = 42
LOUISE: 1,084 – 1,078 = 6
Well, heck. If that keeps up for long, then this is over. But it probably depends on where the votes are from.
UPDATE 10:00 — VOTE-BY-MAIL RESULTS + 69% OF PRECINCTS
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OK, maybe precinct balloting really is going to be incredibly low! We’re now up to 5,337 ballots cast at the polls, and Moorlach pulls up another tenth of a percent. One tenth to go! He’s about 70 votes behind a winning margin.
THIS WILL NOT BE DECIDED TONIGHT, in case you’re wondering. Absentee ballots will trickle in through Friday and there may also be as-yet-uncounted votes to count — provisionals, absentees turned in at the polls — to count, on the assumption that they’re already not part of the above figures.
How much did they each pick up in this tranche?
MOORLACH: 31,856 – 29,729 = 2,127
WAGNER: 28,449 – 26,715 = 1,734
NAMAZI: 2,266 – 2,178 = 84
LOUISE: 1,218 – 1,084 = 134
So — in Trache 1 (VBM ballots), Moorlach got 52.57% of the two-person vote.
In Tranche 2, Moorlach got 56.35% of the two-person vote.
In Tranche 3, Moorlach got 55.09% of the two-person vote.
Moorlach did about 4% better on Election Day than before.
Either Election Day voters are naturally more pro-Moorlach than VBMers, or those mailers did not help Wagner.
And what’s left to count — primarily VBMs dropped off at the polls, will probably be more like Election Day votes than other VBMs.
UPDATE 10:30 — VOTE-BY-MAIL RESULTS + 100% OF PRECINCTS (NORMAL ON-TIME BALLOTS)
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All right, this MAY BE DECIDED TONIGHT after all — but there’s still the opportunity for Moorlach to drop back below 50.01%. (This is true regardless of whether Wagner concedes.) It’s just not the way to bet. And even if everyone wants to give up — Wagner’s not likely to beat Moorlach in a runoff, and his IEs are not likely to “help” him as much again — I don’t believe that the Registrar of Voters can stop counting votes just because the person trailing says “uncle.”
Counting, by the way, apparently continues. There will be an update tomorrow at — although it may not contain any new data.
How much did they each pick up in this tranche?
MOORLACH: 34,208 – 31,856 = 2,352
WAGNER: 29,967 – 28,449 = 1,518
NAMAZI: 2,359 – 2,266 = 93
LOUISE: 1.368 – 1,218 = 150
In Tranche 4, Moorlach got 60.77% of the two-person vote.
On Election Day, thus far, Moorlach received 5,340 (34,208 – 28,868) votes to Wagner’s 3,939 (29,987 – 26,048). That represents 57.55% of the two-person vote.
UPDATE 11:30 — WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT? (AN INCOMPLETE LIST)
The Registrar of Voters has the numbers of ballots left to count for everything but what is not yet countable — the number of absentee ballots with today’s postmark that arrive by Friday at 5:00 p.m. Here’s the breakdown:
550 — estimated total number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count
4,850 — estimated total number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count
788 — provisional ballots left to count
141 — paper ballots left to count
6,329 — total ballots left to count (the ROV says that this adds up to 6,937, but I think that something was lost in the translation)
Let’s add enough Vote-by-Mail ballots to make it an even 8,000 left (whichever number we start with), to make the math easier. And let’s assume that Moorlach underperforms the 49.7% he had with the absentees, getting only 49% of the vote. Where would that leave him?
Well, 49% of 8,000 would be 3,920 votes for him, and 51% of 8,000 would be 4,080 votes against him. So he’d lose 160 votes off of his margin. He currently has 34,208 of the 67,922 votes counted. The 50%+1 threshold is therefore one more than 33,961, meaning 33,962. He exceeds that number by 246 votes (34,208 – 33,982). So he’d have to get lose 247 votes to force a runoff. If there were 8,000 votes left uncounted — that’s after ballots that don’t qualify are discounted — he’s have to get less than 48.5% of the votes. That’s not impossible — but it’s pretty unlikely that he would run 2% less that he’s running now when it’s the early absentees that were his worst group, and they’re already pretty much gone.
So, no — it’s not over over. Nevertheless, barring the unexpected — it’s over. And you can call him Senator The Moorlach.
And as for Don Wagner, there’s this:
Interesting results so far.
If Moorlach pulls it off tonight, so many Sacrameto pundits will be eating crow.
Morlock inches closer. Almost hope he stays under fifty percent so those douches can all spend more money.
Suffice to say voters have had it with negative campaigns via mailers and blogs. Trust me, I know!
Sometimes. Not always, but sometimes. They can also, perhaps, smell flop sweat.
Everyone knew that this was Moorlachs to lose. His polling numbers were so high at the start of this. So I don’t think the Sacramento pundits will be eating crow, they were all just hoping for an upset and a runoff. Moorlach won’t change in Sacramento, he won’t accomplish a thing and he won’t care. He just wants to people to think he is as important as he thinks he really is. What a loss for the California GOP, have him and Deb Pauley representing us.
Well, if EVERYONE knew that it was Moorlach’s to lose, everyone lost a chance to win a lot of money on bets. And if it was his to lose, how much more could he have done to lose it than to get outspent (counting IE’s) by almost 4 to 1?
I wish that you’d spoken up with your “dead cinch” prediction before the polls closed. I’d have been impressed.
ah come on Greg, like Wagner supporters were going to talk like that a few weeks ago? You know political strategy better then that! Moorlach’s name ID is through the roof in OC, most everyone knows that. Now that it is over people who knew the actual polling numbers will most likely let the numbers out. I have heard in the mid to high teens as where Moorlach was over Wagner when this all started. He has to get dumped on for Wagner to have a chance. And of course, like me, it will be flavored with sour grapes.
I refer you to every published discussion you’ll find in the California media. The disparity in money and in establishment endorsements seemingly convinced every “neutral” media observer in the media from Sacramento to San Diego.
If Wagner’s people thought they were underdogs, then I understand that they wouldn’t say so — but at some point doesn’t the overwhelming public consensus that one is favored lean that one is no longer an underdog?
No. The most important rule to always remember is the the only thing that matters is the voters. That “overwhelming public consensus” was coming from political people who just really wanted Wagner to win. There are thousands of individual voters who never read a 460 form and have no idea how to log onto a political blog. They are the only people that matter on election day.
There will be no major difference in how Moorlach will vote from Wagner. What I believe you consider the “political establishment” supported Wagner because they believe he is a better legislator and candidly a nicer guy. Moorlach is self righteous and thinks he is smarter and better then the rest of us. He also isn’t as smart on policy matters. His record as a supervisor should stand as an example of how he will handle himself in Sacramento.
Well *I* called up our flawed and beloved Sasquatch and congratulated him, if that’s any kind of official. “Don’t forget your old friends now!”
Did he “declare victory” — or ask you not to jinx him? Staying above 50% is still a close call. Staying above Wagner is a given.
I have to admit I was off…I figured Moorlach in the mid 50s based on name ID alone. Maybe all the attacks helped?
It was a sure sign right off the bat that the Smash ‘N Grab Club was running scared. The thing that was really telling, desperation-wise, was the employment of some boob named Aaron Park to attack Moorlach relentlessly with all kinds of nonsense – on Art Pedroza’s blog!
Hopefully The Moorlach can scrape together a couple hundred votes and we can return Hairbag Sidhu to the cold storage room for a little more slow fermentation.
The biggest winner so far? TOM TAIT
P.S. can you please put a picture of Wagner’s mug on a Janet Nguyen body with Anna Bryson’s hair?
A pregnant Janet body?
Now you have gone too far. Because a pregnant Nguyen means that somebody had to…you, know, mental images. Damn you, Vern.
Speaking of images, has anyone noticed from this featured photo and the one on next post that, after seeing the horror Don Wagner’s face under her hairdo, the relief from seeing Anna Bryson’s face instead makes her look fantastic?
This is why sometimes I have to be careful with Photoshop.
According to Voice:
In the 10:30 p.m. update from the county Registrar of Voters, Moorlach was out in front with 50.4 percent in the contest for the 37th State Senate District. Wagner was behind with 44.1 percent.
Read my updates to the story from last night, David. They provide as complete a picture of where things stand as I believe has been published anywhere, though I haven’t seen today’s Register.
The photo of Wagner with Bryson’s hair is all you get for free. Anything else you have to commission.
Aaron Park is not a bad guy, but he really did outdo himself for Wagner. Pedroza has fired him, so I think we’ll invite him back here (where he’s written before) so you can have a clear shot at him. We have ways of making him refrain from going too nuts; you yourself are adept at many of them. Pedroza didn’t challenge him the way we tend to do here. I’d have had parodies of most oh his posts up within a day.
The avalanche of negative hit piece mailers generated by the law enforcement organizations (as in unions) was something to behold. About 2 weeks ago after receiving numerous such hit pieces I began to think that they would produce a backlash vote for Moorlach, not against him as these mailings advocated. Sure enough. Assuming tha Moorlach maintains his lead of more thatn 50%, it may be a loss for Wagner, but it is a huge loss for the public safety unions as well as the OC Business Council movers and shakers. A repudiation of back room power politics and the usual scramble of politicians to seek endorsements from each other. That is a bit refreshing regardless of what one thinks about Moorlach. Unfortunately he will now become another lost Orange County soul in the State Legislature who is ineffective because, after all, he is from Orange County and our legislators cannot author any legislation that will pass – almost never have.
“but it is a huge loss…as well as the OC Business Council movers and shakers”
Or, if you prefer, PringleCorp. Another hit to Der Pringle and another win for Tom Tait, whose popularity in Anaheim Hills no doubt gave Moorlach the win.
I think the biggest winner in this Moorlach victory is Moorlach.
Why do you squash and squeeze every political story and development into your “I hate Pringle and worship Tait” template”?
Just because I can.
P.S. When I wrote that “biggest winner” remark I was unaware that Moorlach had over 50%.
And so now Tait is the runner up winner.
P.P.S I don’t hate Pringle – just what he represents.
While of course Don Wagner unfortunately gets to continue to squander air in the assembly.
But let’s appreciate the failure of so many decent *choke* people who tried to help him ascend to the Senate: DAVE ELLIS. CURT PRINGLE. the OCBC. Who am I leaving out?
Nguyen, Do, Bates, Walters, Sidhu (no doubt!) and most likely Ackerman and Ackerwoman. I am off to Wagner’s campaign site to mine for more names of the righteous.
Here you go. Please note Harkey (!), Rackaukas (the good as no DA DA), PringleCorp, Steve Sheldon, Pringle’s OCBC auxiliary bozos Cavecche and Amante, the Irvine crowd, and a list of other small-time characters looking for a leg up to the big-time Main Chance. Let’s not forget Huff, the illegitimate child of Redevelopment and an unnamed traveling salesman.
U.S. Representative Dana Rohrabacher
U.S. Representative Ed Royce
U.S. Representative Mimi Walters
Board of Equalization Member Diane Harkey
Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas
Orange County Board of Supervisors Chairman Todd Spitzer
Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel
Orange County Sheriff Sandra Hutchens
Orange County Assessor Claude Parrish
Orange County Auditor/Controller Eric Woolery, CPA
Orange County Clerk/Recorder Hieu Nguyen
Former Mayor of Orange, Carolyn Cavecche
Aliso Viejo City Councilmember Dave Harrington
Anaheim Mayor Pro-Tem Kris Murray
Anaheim City Councilmember Lucille Kring
Former Anaheim Mayor Pro Tem Harry Sidhu
Former Anaheim Mayor Pro Tem Gail Eastman
Huntington Beach City Councilmember Barbara Delgeize
Huntington Beach City Councilmember Mike Posey
Huntington Beach City Attorney Michael Gates
Irvine Mayor Steven Choi
Irvine Mayor Pro-Tem Jeff Lalloway
Irvine City Councilmember Christina Shea
Irvine Ranch Water District Steve Lamar
Irvine Ranch Water District Mary Aileen Mathis
Irvine Ranch Water District John Withers
Irvine School Board Member Ira Glasky
Laguna Beach City Councilmember Steve Dicterow
Lake Forest Mayor Scott Voigts
Lake Forest City Councilmember Dwight Robinson
Newport Beach City Councilmember Duffy Duffield
Newport Beach City Councilmember Kevin Muldoon
Newport Beach City Councilmember Diane Dixon
Orange City Councilmember Mark Murphy
Orange County Water Board Steve Sheldon
Orange County Board of Education Member Robert Hammond
Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee Arianna P. Barrios
Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee Phil Yarborough
South Orange County Community College District Trustee Tim Jemal
Tustin Mayor Chuck Puckett
Mayor Pro-Tem City Councilman John Nielsen
Former Tustin Mayor Jerry Amante
Tustin City Councilmember Al Bernstein
Tustin City Councilmember Al Murray
Tustin Unified School Board Member Jonathan Abelove
Tustin Unified School Board Member Lynn Davis
Tustin Unified School Board Member Francine Scinto
Villa Park City Councilmember Greg Mills
Villa Park City Councilmember Diane Fascinelli
Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff
State Senator Janet Nguyen
State Senator Pat Bates
State Senator Jean Fuller
State Senator Mike Morrell
State Senator Joel Anderson
State Senator Jim Nielsen
Former Republican State Senate Leader Dick Ackerman
Former State Senator Marian Bergeson
Assembly Republican Leader Kristin Olsen
State Assembly Member Ling-Ling Chang
State Assembly Member Young Kim
State Assembly Member Travis Allen
State Assembly Member Bill Brough
State Assembly Member Brian Dahle
State Assembly Member Jim Patterson
State Assembly Member Shannon Grove
State Assembly Member Katcho Achadjian
State Assembly Member Frank Bigelow
State Assembly Member Melissa Melendez
State Assembly Member Beth Gaines
State Assembly Member Brian Jones
State Assembly Member Marie Waldron
State Assembly Member Rocky Chavez
State Assembly Caucus Chair Scott Wilk
Former Assembly Republican Leader Connie Conway
Former Assembly Republican Leader Martin Garrick
Former State Assembly Member Jim Silva
*We are proud to say…..we know five of that group that actually respond to
our e-mails. Evidently, that is enough!
And because the past Board of Supervisors was so great we reward them by sending a majority to represent us in Sacramento. What is wrong with this picture?
“We” reward them? “We” were outvoted (except arguably for this time.) Although the fact that Gary Kephart was only a nominal challenge to Pat Bates and Jose Solorio’s presence prevented any Dem who might actually stir up enthusiasm from the ballot is partly our doing.
from today’s register article:
“Write-in Democrat Louise Stewardson was named on 2 percent of the ballots tallied.”
So far, there have been 67,000 ballots counted, suggesting about 1300 votes for Louise.
Not far off from our readerhip. OJ blog had an impact!
I’m pretty sure that the DPOC and Chumley are the ones who will get all of the credit for that.
Looking at that list that Zenger posted, who wants to take on the job of connecting how many of them work for each other outside of their own offices? Who is whose aid in another office? Who is Executive Director of some quasi-governmental spend-tank (God knows they are not think-tanks) answering to someone else on the list? Anyone want to do the roll of butcher paper and a ball of yarn connections? I’ll buy the Sharpies and the first box of push pins.
Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee Arianna P. Barrios
Hmm?
KLEPTOMIKON
Ancient and mystical booke of thievery?
The same.
Do any of you morons work for a living? The same circle jerk of 6 commenters with too much time on your hands
Ain’t it the life!
What are YOU doing at 2 pm on a Wednesday writing semi-obscene anonymous comments on blogs? Keep propping up society now, pal!
Don’t run him off! If he stays, there will be seven of us!
(Note to the humor-impaired: Don’t even.)
Jose Solorio seems lost in the ozone – unfortunate that the dude, in his mind, has lost his identity.
Using the term “open thread” literally –
There is some weird angry shit goin’ down in Downtown Santa Ana – and this is just a sample –
Pocha Peña –
I think The Little Sparrow is using items from the Farmers Market in the $85 a plate fundraiser which benefits the market. The irony is that some folks who actually work at the Farmers Market, providing Arts & Crafts & face painting & bilingual marketing etc for local kids and their families, have not been paid or have had extremely long payment delays and as a result are experiencing extreme economic hardship.
In light of the fact that some Farmers Market workers can barely afford bread, and can’t even dream of attending an $85 a plate dinner (plus $25 for wine) —> it’s just left a bad taste. To have a luxury experience amidst so much poverty is creating a great deal of resentment with local artists and activists
Tristan Tzara –
Fuck you Little Sparrow! and the gentrification ass that you rode in on! Fuck the Downtown Santa Ana Farmer’s Market. Fuck all of the lies and propaganda and cowardly marketing gimmicks that people hide behind in order to celebrate commercial “change” and superficial healthy lifestyle progress for those that are too blind to see.
There are people that actually LABOR to make Santa Ana a healthy place and LABOR to make the farmers market a popular success story in order to sell this whole friendly concept to the consuming masses. Some of these people, and please understand what I mean by “some of these people” that work their hardest in Santa Ana are not even being paid and yet they have to have their minds violated consistently by this propaganda that some group are all ready to celebrate the success of a new styled Santa Ana! An $85.oo stylized Dinner for some class of paid professionals that either do not work on the grunt level or have any real honest appreciation for the base level of service that is needed to make a city thrive and function. Sick of the bullshit! Santa Ana needs a creative Economy! not a white washed, manipulated, gimmick economy!
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=427597967398863&set=a.367144236777570.1073741830.100004459907660&type=1&theater
I know Tristan Tzara. He drinks too much. Late at night. And then gets on the blogs & Facebook.
To the anonymous fellow who suddenly claims that “This was always Moorlach’s to lose…” Scott Lay, one of our state’s smartest observers, calls it “a pretty significant upset” to the OC establishment.
I respectfully disagree. The OC political establishment IS upset about the “upset,” but Moorlach has 20 years of generally positive ID behind him. Those who know him best are least impressed, but that’s not how it works. I figured him for 54-55 range – just like I figured Tom Tait.
I haven’t seen the precinct data but I’ll bet he did real well in CM, NB, HB and Anaheim Hills. Few republicans in those places has ever even heard of Richard Wagner, let alone Don Wagner.
The word was that polling had Moorlach up by 13- 15 points when he entered the race. Scott Lay observes the State. It always amazes me that those who are in Sacramento, elected or observers think the world revolves around them politically. Local electeds have MUCH better name ID then State legislators. And Moorlach has been repeating the same story (real or not) over and over again for decades. The voters believe him to be that man. It was always going to be hard to get that perception about him to change in such a short window of time with voters. A lot of people just wanted to try and make that happen because they have a more realistic view of the man, and hope for more time with a run off.
David, at first glance it looks like turn out was much better in his stronghold then up in central OC. I bet that is where the 175 or so that put him over 50% came from.
*If this stands….Moorlach is the first Republican in recent history that could serve two full terms in the CA Senate and then run easily for Statewide Office and WIN. If this stands, he jumped over the Assembly as did Lou Correa. We are still hopeful for Lou making a comeback someplace. At any rate, Moorlach has “the myth and image” working for him. Go Blue Devils!
Coach K and Duke!
Is he limited to two more terms? He’s serving less than half of this term for Walters; I’m wondering if he can serve three terms, once this one is over next year.
Correa did not “jump over the Assembly.”
I had to look that up in wiki…. I thought the *winships may have been right this time, pero no, Zenger’s right – Lou had two assembly terms in the late 90s before Supervisor.
That may have been when he developed the formula for structuring the OCTA, as Carolyn Cavecche patiently explained to me one night… before she went over to the Pringle Side and was Ordered Not To Talk To Vern Anymore.
Institutional memory — It’s what’s for breakfast here!
*Lou has been around and seen all the elephants. No wonder we got confused……who does the Assembly first…then Supervisor? Lou!!!
OK, you got us on that one….but you must agree……those years in
the Assembly are mere shadows compared to his Supervisor and Senate gigs?
*Correa accomplished nothing as a Supervisor. His efforts in the Senate were all based on the “law enforcement” agenda. he did vote to raise our taxes and got us a piddling fraction in return. Yay…WOW! Now he will pimp the HSR boondoggle disaster.