Where Did Cunningham Get His Transcript of the SD-37 “Mystery Phone Survey”? A New Theory!

Artist conception of Matt Cunningham preparing a sacrifice to his angry and demanding god.

You all know how unclean it makes me feel to link to the Cunningblog, but when the disdain with which its proprietor treats his readers exceeds merely unpleasant levels and reaches into the actively comic — well, then sometimes I just gotta.  So here’s the link the Matt’s post from Sunday: “Mystery Phone Survey in the 37th Senate District Race“, wherein he intones in his best passive voice “There was a phone survey in the field this morning testing voter attitudes in the 37th Senate District about the upcoming special election for that seat.”  And indeed there was:

What would you say is the most important problem facing your area today that you would like the state senate to address?

Now I’m going to read you the names of some people and organizations in public life. Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven’t heard of them, please tell me and we’ll move on:

John Moorlach

Your local firefighters

Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs

Donald Wagner

Mimi Walters

Your local police

Naz Namazi

Orange County Business Council

If the March 17 special election were held today among Naz Namazi; Donald Wagner, Business Owner/Assemblyman; John Moorlach, Orange County Supervisor – for which candidate would you vote?

Now I’d like to tell you a little bit about the candidates for state Senate, and get your opinion on what you hear.

“John Moorlach will fight to end the unnecessary government spending, tax increases and debts that have driven California to 46 out of the 50 states in financial status. 20 years ago, Orange County was forced to declare bankruptcy and voters chose Moorlach to help turn the county around first as Treasurer-Tax Collector and then as supervisor. Today, Orange County’s budget is balanced, it’s economy is strong and its investments are healthy. Now it’s time to fix California, and we need a fiscally conservative accountant like Moorlach in Sacramento.  Moorlach has been endorsed by Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson and Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait.”

“Naz Namazi is a former aide to Congressman Dana Rohrabacher.”

“Donald Wagner is a state Assemblyman and small businessman. He has been a proven conservative voice in Sacramento.  Wagner has fought to eliminate the $500 billion debt that liberal politicians have created. And as a small business owner, Wagner has worked to get the government off the backs of businesses. As Senator, Wagner will fight for a balanced budget with no new taxes and will oppose amnesty for illegal immigrants. Wagner has been endorsed by Congressman Ed Royce and former Senator and current Congresswoman Mimi Walters, Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas, the OC Taxpayers Association, the California Small Business Association, and many other groups and community leaders recognize him as the right choice for Senate.”

If the March 17 special election were held today among Naz Namazi; Donald Wagner, Business Owner/Assemblyman; John Moorlach, Orange County Supervisor – for which candidate would you vote?

Now I’d like to read to you some statements made by opponents of the candidates for state Senate. After each statement, please tell me if it for you personally it raises major doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts. If you don’t think it is accurate, please say so.

“Naz Namazi is too extreme to represent us in Sacramento. Namazi works for a congressman who supports Russian President Vladimir Putin who is essentially trying to reassemble the Soviet Union.” Does this raise major doubts, minor doubts, no real doubts or not accurate?

“As a state Assemblyman, Donald Wagner has sided with those who promote sexual conversion therapy – a process whereby gays and lesbians are given various treatments to become heterosexuals, saying, quote, “I’m not a doctor.”” Does this raise major doubts, minor doubts, no real doubts or not accurate?

“As county Treasurer-Tax Collector, John Moorlach was accused of a conflict of interest when he invested $40 million of Orange County public school money in the utility market, even though some of his closest friends are utility executives.” Does this raise major doubts, minor doubts, no real doubts or not accurate?

“As Orange County supervisor, John Moorlach wanted to slash the pensions of police officers and firefighters, those on the front line who protect and serve Orange County residents every day.” Does this raise major doubts, minor doubts, no real doubts or not accurate?

“In the state Assembly, Donald Wagner voted against raising California’s minimum wage, and against giving one hour of paid sick leave to employees for every thirty hours worked. Does this raise major doubts, minor doubts, no real doubts or not accurate?”

“Donald Wagner says he opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants, but Wagner signed a letter asking Congress to call for a vote on its comprehensive immigration reform bill that would have given amnesty to illegal immigrants.” Does this raise major doubts, minor doubts, no real doubts or not accurate?

“John Moorlach is a career politician and opportunist who seems to run for every public office he can. He talked about running for governor, for an open congressional seat and has now settled on running for state Senate, even though he had suggested he was done with politics.” Will he represent us in the state Senate or simply pass the time until a better political office opens up?

One final time: if the March 17 special election were held today among Naz Namazi; Donald Wagner, Business Owner/Assemblyman; John Moorlach, Orange County Supervisor – for which candidate would you vote?

Thinking about something else – are you planning on voting in this election by mail, or early voting as it is known? Or do you plan on voting on election day at your polling booth?

Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only:

In what year were you born?

What is the last grade of school or level of education that you completed?

To ensure we have a representative sample, can you please tell me your race?

Do you consider yourself an Hispanic, Latino or Spanish-speaking American?

Have I reached you on a cel phone or regular land-line phone?

Thinking about all the phone calls you receive, are they 1) mostly or all on a cel phone? 2) some on a cel phone and some on a regular land-line phone? 3) mostly or all on a regular land-line phone?

Matt explains that the mystery of who put out this survey is … mysterious!

It doesn’t read like a candidate campaign-sponsored survey, but sounds more like an independent expenditure committee testing the comparative strengths and weaknesses of Wagner and Moorlach to find the messages to advance its chosen candidate – or possibly to determine if it is worthwhile to spend money on the race.

So let’s review:

1. The survey came out Sunday morning.
2. The blog post appeared on Sunday.
3. The survey was pretty extensive.
4. Matt printed a transcript of it.
5. Either Matt (or a borrowed flying monkey) taped an unexpected phone call in real time and then transcribed the conversation almost immediately or … someone provided (or more likely emailed) Matt the survey script in text form.

I hate to go out on a limb here, but it seems reasonable to me that we can provisionally hypothesize that the person who sent Matt the transcript is affiliated with whoever did the survey!

And that means that:

1. Either Matt is inclined to print unverified claims from anonymous sources that a survey had taken place that morning, or
2. Matt verified the claim of the survey’s existence by his own random call of people, hoping that one or more or them did receive a call, or
3. Matt knows who put out this survey, chose not to inform his readers of it, and apparently hopes that we can’t figure out that it’s probably not really a mystery at all!

The second possibility is statistically unlikely.  (Yes, someone could have contacted Matt to say “I’ve just been surveyed, have you by any chance recently received an anonymous email with the survey text?” but that seems logistically unlikely.

The third possibility  is the sort of contempt for readers of which I’d hate to accuse a fellow political blogger.

Therefore, the likeliest possibility is: #1!  To test this, OJB encourages readers to email surveys that they would like to see printed in the CunningBlog and let him know that you have the script of another survey that was out in the field today.  I’ll suggest a few sample questions you can include:

Now I’d like to read to you some statements made by opponents of the candidates for state Senate. After each statement, please tell me if it for you personally it raises major doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts. If you don’t think it is accurate, please say so.

John Moorlach not only shot a man in Reno just to see him die, but he then billed the County for the round-trip travel expenses to Nevada.

Naz Namazi is far too intelligent and creative to ever be satisfied with a State Senate position, and besides it would cut into her filmmaking career, possibly depriving the world of an important independent woman’s voice.

On at least two-dozen occasions, a masked Don Wagner used Mimi Walters’s unoccupied “apartment in Irvine” to engage in filmed sexual trysts with minors, goats, chickens, sea creatures, pastries, and melons.  His porn name is “Farmer Dan.”

If Matt prints your survey, it will pretty much prove that he is innocent of trying to bamboozle his readers — this time.