Correa moves closer — down by 85 — but are his best ballots behind him?
Today was mostly a provisional ballot counting day, and Lou Correa accordingly edged closer to Andrew Do. His deficit has now dropped from 239 ballots down to 85. But, if past days are a guide, this may be as close as he comes. However, there’s a type of ballots out there that has literally never been counted before — “Timely Postmarked Late-Arriving Absentees” — and while we may think that we know what they’ll look like we don’t actually know.
And then, of course, there’s the possibility of a recount of some sort. Lou may not represent Vietnamese areas again, if he loses this election, and that gives him the freedom to investigate some questionable practices — if there’s any basis to look for them — that candidates usually do not get.
Here’s the table of new overall totals (with the changes in RED):
Time to visit the “What’s Left to Count?” pages on the OCROV site!
Here’s the total counted and known to be remaining after Election Day:
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 6,937 [+ 120]
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 6,172 [+ 1,256]
Total estimated number of ballots left to count: 765 [- 1,136]
From what categories were the newly counted ballots?
Later-arriving Vote By Mail ballots: The number of them to be counted increased from 562 to 682. Of these, 286 were counted today, while 396 remain. That uncounted number will probably still increase, but not by much.
Paper ballots: No change. Still at 141 turned in, 136 counted, meaning 5 are still left.
Absentee ballots returned at the polls: No change. Still at 4,850 turned in, 4,780 counted, and 70 remain uncounted.
Provisional ballots: This was the big category counted today. Of the 1,264 provisionals that had been waiting, 970 were counted today and 294 remain. (Of course, not all of those “counted” may have been deemed valid. It looks like 17 ballots from some category were disqualified.)
Provisionals tend to favor Democrats, and we learned yesterday that Later Arriving Absentees tend to favor Do. If absentees returned at the polls are pretty much the same as the late arrivals, then Do has 466 left favoring him (with more on the way) and — let’s give the Democrat the paper ballot advantage — Correa has a pile of 299 that should favor him (to the extent that they count.) That’s about a 60-40 advantage for Do, compared to today’s roughly 75-25 advantage for Correa.
I think that we’re probably looking at a Do win between 100 and 150. Normally, one would not go forward with that — heck, de facto Republican candidate Bruce Broadwater didn’t go ahead with the recount against Bao Nguyen in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race facing a deficit of only 15. But if Lou thinks that the Vietnamese vote is questionable — as well as now clearly being the major new force in Orange County — this is the best chance he (and perhaps any Democrat) will ever have to give it thorough scrutiny.
Being the “heavy” in the Vietnamese community that has long supported him, until this time, would be a huge sacrifice for the team — but if it would help either dispel or confirm the rumors of chicanery in Vietnamese absentee vote manufacturing machine, it would ultimately do that community a huge favor in the long term, but making it easier for the most upright Vietnamese candidates (like Chris Phan and Bao Nguyen) to prosper. Is Lou one to take one for the team? You probably can guess what I think, but I would be very happy to be wrong — and happier still if, where signatures didn’t match and such, the result of the election ended up being reversed and sending Correa to the dais.
This is the third in a series of non-Democrat participation in the voting process. At least that is what the turn out tells me, or is it just that “Democrats” are not just complacent, but rather “satisfied” with government and the candidates that get elected here in OC.
What to do?
CJ
Or maybe, also, very unexcited by a candidate like Lou, who is often indistinguishable from a Republican?
No, you’re right, next time we see a buncha Democrats come out’ll be Nov. 2016 when they’re all excited about Hillary. I don’t know what’s wrong with
themus.How, in a couple of sentences, would you summarize Correa’s pitch to Latino voters? “Public safety, more prisons, gang injunctions” … and what else?
I recall a Jose Solorio speech where he lampooned the idea of a “Latino agenda” by saying that Latinos wanted exactly what everyone else wanted — safe streets, good schools — as if there were no critical differences between the projects in west Santa Ana and the developments in Rancho Santa Margarita. And, what do you know — Santa Ana voters don’t come out, and pundits like Chumley wail on Facebook that there must be something wrong with them.
It’s more important to Democratic leaders here not to have a vibrant, challenging, economically populist flank of the party than it is to win elections. Don’t get me wrong: they’d love to win elections, but not at the price of giving economic reforms more than lip service. They lack “skin in the game.”
I could summarize it in two words GD: ‘Education & Jobs.”
Everything else falls in line. Everyone must be happy with what they get in this county.
Lord knows, some people have tried to make a difference.
CJ
*As they say: “Stand by to Stand by!” “It ain’t over till the skinny pop gets eaten or the fat lady pays for her liposuction!”
This reminds me of the 2008 Garden Grove City Council election. Robin Marcario was in the lead by over a thousand votes only to watch Andrew Do ultimately win after the absentee ballots were counted. He subsequently left in the middle of his term amid questions of his residency.
Absentees generally skew Republican here (and my sense is that this is generally truer of Little Saigon than most areas.) In other states, where Dems have much stronger ground games, they are notorious for skewing Democratic.
And then was replaced, not by the straight-arrow Marcario as was supposedly their policy, but by rubber-stamp Beard who they knew would continue to back the Broadwater agenda as he ran successfully later as an incumbent.
when it is all said and done, do by 127 votes, too many to justify a recount
Whether it is “too many to justify a recount” would depend on how many illegitimate absentees and provisionals there are. This (likely) result won’t be reversed based on numerical errors or coding problems; it would only be reversed on the basis of widespread disqualification of ballots. As a Democrat, I’m not supposed to believe in voter fraud, and I generally think that the notion is overblown — but if one were looking for signs of it, repeated instances massive turnout of voters in a tight-knit ethnic enclave where many have limited English skills has been fertile ground for it historically (as my Republican friends enjoy reminding me.)
Does Correa want to go that route? I doubt it; it would involve much burning of bridges. But if he does want to, it’s available to him. If he (and Dems generally, I suppose, as anyone can seek a recount) want to leave the Janet Nguyen turnout machine unexamined, then they can — and it will probably go on working splendidly for many years.
An actually functioning Democratic Party would grab this opportunity to check every last absentee and provisional ballot cast, but … well, you know ….
I cannot disagree with you that janet is a well oiled machine but then again so was LBJ’s Texas and Daley’s Chicago. Lou wont burn the bridges because the speculation is that he has a big bucks lobbying gig lined up
Its no mystery what happened to the Dem/Progressive voters in recent elections. They are simply the same voters who came out in droves for a progressive message inspired by Obama in 08 only to have buyers remorse in subsequent years. Take that into account when pondering why Andrew Do defeats Lou Corr’ea with minimal effort.
Placing a candidate like Lou Correa who is a misnomer when it comes to his Democratic Registration in front of a group who is seeking the Elizabeth warren/ Bernie Sanders et al and guess what?; They don’t show up to your super sale. They aint buyin that shit.
*So much trash……Lou will prevail in the end.
It is done!!!
CJ