Political observers seem to have agreed that Correa has moved out of the picture — with OJB’s writer being an exception
The OC Registrar of Voters office has finished counting the ballots and has certified the results, stating that Andrew Do has won the election over Lou Correa by 43 votes out of 48,626 cast, 37,767 of which were case for the two leaders. That an election’s results are certified does not actually mean that the election is over; as we saw from the Garden Grove Mayor’s race and the battle over Measure J, which is still ongoing since November, certification isn’t necessarily the end; sometimes it is simply the step preceding a recount or a ballot inspection that prepares for a court challenge.
I find myself in the peculiar position of, having been the sole Democrat in the party hierarchy who did not want the party to endorse him — largely because it would leave Central Committee members free to promote Chris Phan in Little Saigon, which would not likely hurt Correa but would likely take votes away from Andrew Do — I now find myself to be the only one I can find who is publicly saying that Correa should go ahead and ask for a recount of provisional ballots, with an eye towards a court challenge. And, in fact, if he doesn’t do it, then the Democratic Party of Orange County — which didn’t actually do anything noticeable beyond its endorsement except exhorting people to support Correa — should do it instead.
We’re in a bizarre situation here where many people seem to believe that underhanded tricks — yes, the “voter fraud” that we Democrats are not supposed to believe in and that Republicans supposedly think is rampant enough to justify Voter ID laws — are playing a substantial role in the massive turnout achievements of the “Jannies” in the Vietnamese community, yet nobody seems to want to, you know, GO AND CHECK IT OUT. The path for doing so has already been plowed by the opponents of Measure J, who did not call for a recount but who instead went and gathered evidence that they apparently still believe that voter fraud made a decisive difference in that election. I haven’t been following the Measure J saga (which I understand is now in court) for the past month because of the press of work, but what they did — which was actually pretty cheap — was exactly what Correa, or the DPOC, or the OCEA, or someone somewhere in the district should be doing now: copying many many provisional ballots and late — including very late — absentees and seeing, primarily, whether the signatures match.
While (with some misgivings) I would like to see a different result in this election, that’s not even the primary reason that I’d want to see such an effort go forward. The problem we have right now — in which (1) a lot of people think that the political process was corrupt, and (2) the degree of corruption would have easily been sufficient to affect the outcome of this race, but (3) no one tries to determine the truth — is simply intolerable. If there weren’t so many people muttering about the prospect of absentee ballots being filled out in the name of (and without the knowledge of) voters in Vietnamese areas, I wouldn’t feel strongly about pursuing it. But there have been, there still are, and (given what is going on right now) there will be even more in the future.
Whichever way it turns out is fine. If it turns out that there is no sign of voter fraud — that the signatures match and the voters on record as having voted acknowledge having done so — then that’s fine! In that case, the mutterers should stop muttering about Little Saigon being the contemporary equivalent of Mayor Richard M. Daley’s Chicago. As someone who would be very happy to learn that voter fraud really is a myth, I’d be perfectly happy with the cloud being removed over Little Saigon.
But, if there are major “irregularities” in the votes, then it has got to stop. The court system will only get involved where there is a live and serious controversy, such as the one that we have (if we choose to recognize it) now. Who knows when or if the next opportunity to x-ray Little Saigon’s ballots — and give it either a clean bill of health or drastic emergency surgery — will come in a race close enough where the amount of potentially identifiable irregularities might be decisive? Not “testing the system” in this circumstance would constitute simply through up one’s hands — and if Democrats do so then we will rightly be ignored when we insinuate possible wrongdoing in future elections involving Little Saigon.
OK, let do what we did last time and display the table of new overall totals (with the changes from Thursday’s final numbers in RED):
| Registration and Turnout |
| Completed Precincts: 101 of 101 |
| Reg/Turnout | Percentage | |
| Total Registered Voters | 215,503 | |
| Precinct Registration | 215,503 | |
| Precinct Ballots Cast | 7,610 [+ 167] | 3.5% |
| Early Ballots Cast | 0 | 0.0% |
| Absentee Ballots Cast | 41,016 [+ 414] | 19.0% |
| Total Ballots Cast | 48,626 [+ 581] | 22.6% |
| County Supervisor First District, Short Term |
| Completed Precincts: 101 of 101 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| ANDREW DO | 18,905 [+ 207] | 39.1% |
| LOU CORREA | 18,862 [+ 249] | 39.0% |
| CHRIS PHAN | 7,857 [+ 72] | 16.3% |
| CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN | 1,879 [+ 29] | 3.9% |
| LUPE MORFIN-MORENO | 834 [+16] | 1.7% |
| MARK I. LOPEZ (W) | 2 [+ 2] | 0.0% |
I don’t think I’ve noticed another election outside of “all mail ballots” Oregon where no more than 15.65% of votes were cast at the polls.
The “What’s Left to Count?” pages on the OCROV site now break down how many of each ballot type occurred.
Here’s the total counted after Election Day:
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 6,937 [+0] — in other words, this appears to indicate that no ballots came in on the third day after the election!
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 6,937 [+ 765]
Total estimated number of ballots left to count: 0 [- 765]
From what categories were the newly counted ballots?
Later-arriving Vote By Mail ballots: The number of them to be counted increased from remained at 682. The final 396 were counted on Friday.
Paper ballots: Still at 141 turned in; the final 5 were counted Friday.
Absentee ballots returned at the polls: Still at 4,850 turned in; the final 70 were counted Friday.
Provisional ballots: Still at 1,264 provisionals turned in; the final 294 were counted Friday. (It appears that none were disqualified.)
Both I and Chris Nguyen had expected Do to pick up ground on Friday, so Correa’s cutting his deficit in half despite the much smaller proportion of provisionals was actually pretty impressive. (It also argues against fraud in the most belatedly arriving absentees.)
As I’ve predicted for much of the week, Correa is not likely to pursue a recount despite how very much he’d like to return to this office. I also doubt that Democrats will do it, despite that it is the best chance ever to take a whack at the Jannie machine. (Many Vietnamese appear to have favored Broadwater over Bao in the Garden Grove election, and of course the 2007 special was led by two Vietnamese candidates.) Democrats can feel pretty secure that there’s no commensurate fraud going on in Santa Ana to benefit Lou Correa — because Correa just didn’t do all that well. (And if such voter fraud took place, I as a Democrat would like to see the perpetrators hanged by their thumbs.)
If someone doesn’t step forward and assess the votes now, I don’t think that they’re ever going to do it.
In other words — I don’t think that they’re ever going to do it. And they may never have another chance like this one.
yet, three months ago, Diamond stated this concerning another race:
“Broadwater’s best chance to win might well be not only in people not showing up to confirm their signatures, but in demonstrating the probability of voter fraud — generally believed to be quite rare, but rarely in such a good position to be discovered as this — regarding either absentees, provisionals, or both. His pursuing the sort of aggressive ballot disqualification strategy that one might normally employ in a recount could lead to significant damage to the Vietnamese community if it leads to dragging individual voters into the spotlight — as this is the sort of thing that may discourage future voting. If any improprieties were revealed, that damage would become severe.”
Not inconsistent, although I’m glad that you brought this up.
I wasn’t talking about what Broadwater should do, but about what I thought that he as a population would do. And, in fact, my prediction came true. His team did, as I understand it, find more than 15 mismatches in signatures — but he decided not to pursue it. If I were in his position, and I knew that my own hands were clean, I would have tried to pursue it to the very end.
Why didn’t he do so? Maybe he just didn’t have his heart in the battle anymore. Maybe it was the money. Or maybe — as someone who probably had as much Vietnamese support from over the years as Bao did — he was concerned that whatever improprieties showed up were too likely to come in substantial (even if not majority) part from his supporters as from his opponents.
Neither I nor anyone who would sponsor such a case would likely come from within the Vietnamese community; I just think that that would be too much to ask of someone. Could a court case damage the Vietnamese community? It might — but I hope that it wouldn’t. If corruption were investigated and found to be not just unproven, but solidly absent, then I don’t think it would hurt them. If there were corruption, then it would damage it — but that’s the price one pays for justice.
What you overlook, though, is that if there IS corruption, its being allowed to continue without challenge DEFINITELY damages the Vietnamese community, to the extent that it would mean that even politicians who want to be honest would tend to do better if they were ethically compromised.
That’s not the sort of problem that Broadwater would be interested in solving. It is definitely the sort of problem that I WOULD BE interested in solving.
If a Republican had written this he would be accused of racism.
Nope. I’ve heard the same thing from MANY Viets, about vote fraud & corruption in Little Saigon. First the Trannies and then the Jannies who learned from them.
Greg,
what is the budget for this kind of thing? How many people and how many dollars would you need to for the opening “scan” to establish if it was worth pursing this further?
I’d need to talk to the Registrar and to the attorneys involved in the Measure J recount. If I recall correctly, that “supervised inspection opportunity” (that’s just a guess at the real name) was less than $1000 — I want to say maybe $600.) Presumably, this would involve someone going there with some fluent Vietnamese readers who could assess whether signatures do or don’t match; I presume that the ballots and envelopes (or other material) would be photographed to present to court for an order that would require further inspection pursuant to a court case without cost.
This isn’t something that I’ve done personally and there may be others better equipped to do it — but I’d certainly want to take a swipe at it if that made the difference between it happening or not happening.
*We think Lou will go for the recount…….
I’m gonna bet he’s already out shopping for lobbyist clothes.
So cynical for one so young…
lou’s fallback deal was cut two weeks ago
You think he might be headed for a gig with our friend Pringle?
Lou’s a little old to be “groomed” but we know Pringle’s been grooming latinos and DINOs of all shapes and sizes: Roberto Baeza, Ernesto Medrano, Steven Albert Chavez Lodge, Diane Quezada Singer… and who or what is a Connor Traut? Call Pringle what you like, but don’t call him behind the curve on demographic change!
The only color he cares about is green.
I keep hearing stories confirming the Chicagoness of this last election in Little Saigon, and i don’t even live in the district. Anecdote after dirty anecdote of this past week. I totally agree with Greg, no matter how much you may dislike Lou, this is the time to look into this all. By the way there is no Trannie v. Jannie any more, they have morphed into one corrupt Jannie-shirttail machine, Tyler Diep is one of the most virulent, and Andrew Do is a totally empty vessel who first wanted to work for Lou before Janet gave him different orders.
We need some of the UNIONS who backed Lou to step up with a little recount/investigation cash, cuz Lou is broke now. (Still recovering from Kinde Durkee.)
The shoe is on the other foot now – funny as hell.
I beg your pardon? how is that? What shoe? What foot?
“the shoe is on the other foot”
(idiomatic) The roles of people in a situation have been reversed
Yes. Of course. What roles of whom? Trannies. Jannies. Correa lovers. Reeps. Dems. Asians. Whites. Latinos. Who is doing the shoe trading?
You dems are making accusations of voter fraud on a racial basis – an offense which dems delight in making against reeps.
Oh. Well I know Orange County is full of honest Vietnamese-Americans. And many of THEM have complained to me about their corrupt politicians and the machines they build around them and the tricks they play and the lies they tell on Viet radio. It has sometimes made it a challenge for me to convince my Viet friends that SOME of them are different – that Phu Nguyen, Bao Nguyen, Chris Phan, are not like that.
California is the land of provisional ballots, which are now an open invitation for fraud!
Provisional voting is increasing in California, partly due to the indiscriminate and illegal issuance of these ballots to “anyone” who wants to vote. Governor Brown enables fraudsters by removing the critical validation step that ensures these 1+ million votes are lawfully cast and counted.
https://www.electionintegrityproject.com/2013/09/california-suspends-a-critical-method-to-prevent-voter-fraud/
They’re not an “open invitation for fraud.” But there is a possibility that a well-organized group might gain entry.
For those who don’t click the link, here’s what skally is talking about:
Here’s why I presume that bill was passed: because checking those signatures in real time at those polling stations where provisional ballots predominate — mostly areas with poorer, younger, and renting voters — will tend to increase the time it takes for people there to vote. If there aren’t enough poll workers, then requiring such verification makes already long lines even longer — and that discourages voting. (One might suspect that that’s the actual purpose of such a requirement.) Put enough poll workers and polling stations out where they’re needed and my objection is muted.
As more people lose their homes, switch among apartments, etc. in hard economic times, provisional ballots become even more important. The key is that they can always be checked later, when they have potentially decided an election and when there’s some reason for suspicion (especially of large concerted actions.)
Guess what? That’s all that I’m saying ought to be done here. If you want to pay for it in an election where Loretta crushes an opponent by ten thousand votes, they you should feel free to go ahead.
“Here’s why I presume that bill was passed: because checking those signatures in real time at those polling stations where provisional ballots predominate … will tend to increase the time it takes for people there to vote.”
Not likely as polling stations do not have access to the original voter registration signatures. But this could, and should, be done at the ROV.
I completely agree with Vern here. And: if Janet’s Balloting machine is as rotten as people expect, it needs to be investigated; if it isn’t, it ought to be vindicated.
The “ethnic” (not “racial”) basis of the suspicion comes (1) from the community itself and (2) from its being such an outlier. Other absentee-based GOTV efforts just have not had comparable success. Maybe they truly have a secret recipe that no one else has. Or, maybe there’s something to the persistent rumors.
I take it that you don’t really care, right?
I would agree that you and Nelson should be more correctly called out for your ethnic bigotry in this case.
somebody somewhere made a very good point
if this was an accusation coming from the republicans
asserting the the hispanics in santa and were corrupt. all
you liberal progressives would be shouting racism
The accusations are out there — and, as Vern has said, largely originating from within the Vietnamese community. And, the effectiveness of the Little Saigon voting machine has been shown to be repeatedly and sometimes unexpectedly effective.
Now compare that to Santa Ana. So far as I know, allegations are not being made about coordinated efforts at voter fraud there. If there were allegations, it would be sort of funny, because Santa Ana is doing such a notoriously bad job of turning out its voters. (Mayor Pulido is an exception — although I can’t recall allegations of voting improprieties being made against him. Lots of other things, but not that. But I easily could have missed some.)
The argument is apparently that Vietnamese ethnicity should insulate one from being investigated for fraud. I’ve never believed that — and Democrats within the party who have made such arguments about legitimate investigations into their ethnic/racial communities being racist are people to whom I’m usually opposed.
What I oppose is cherry-picking ballots based on ethnicity without probable cause — which is what the sort of attack you’re contemplating would be doing. In this case, I’d like to see all provisionals checked out and (to the extent to which the law allows) at least a decent-sized random sample of absentee ballots — especially late-mailed absentees — checked. If such a suit were to find corruption among Santa Ana Latinos — or non-Latino whites in the district, for that matter — I would want to see that come to light as well. There just isn’t much rumbling commentary suggesting that one should expect it.
*Provisional Ballots? None get counted. You want to find out how many
Provisional Ballots were actually counted in this election, have the balls
to call the Registrar and ask Neal……..he will tell you straight out.
*Perhaps we should have added: Counted and Documented Approved.. that is.
The Viet machine was out in force and the Latino machine was at siesta.
What I would check is who the telephones of Correa ended up being routed to Janet?
Or how excited can your average Juan or Juanita get about Lou?
During the observation of provisional ballots last week, Correa said that his lawyers found several questionable occurrences, including “provisional ballots being counted even though they were not signed by the voter; ballots cast by voters who appeared to have attempted to vote more than once; and voters who claimed to have moved into the First Supervisorial District just prior to the election without actually re-registering at their supposed new address.”
Correa added that a “recount will allow us to investigate and determine the scope of these and any other irregularities, to analyze whether they might have affected the outcome of the election, and to decide whether further action is warranted, either in the form of a judicial action or the District Attorney’s investigation.”
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/recount-650001-reports-seeks.html
Sounds like about what’s needed. The Voice too: http://voiceofoc.org/2015/02/correa-calls-for-recount-in-county-supervisor-election/
“Correa added that a ‘recount will allow us to investigate and determine the scope of these and any other irregularities, to analyze whether they might have affected the outcome of the election, and to decide whether further action is warranted, either in the form of a judicial action or the District Attorney’s investigation.’”
Yes, Correa is one guy who MAY be able to expect such an investigation, as tight as he is with T-Rack.
This is going to get real ugly real quick.
http://www.evolve-research.com/sites/default/files/imce/horrified_look.jpg