National Election Results Liveblog and Open Thread — UPDATED MANY TIMES!

This post is for discussion of national election results as they filter in, starting in earnest at about 5:00.  It probably won’t be closely monitored until sometime between 7:30 and 8:30, though.

US map tattoo

Someone apparently misinformed this guy about the California flag being a warm-colored tie-die.

 5:05: Hopes of getting rid of Mitch McConnell reportedly dashed.  GOP also switches the Senate seat in West Virginia.

More Senate: Kay Hagen leading so far in N. Carolina, but Mark Warner TRAILING in Virginia.  That would be a disaster for Dems; wasn’t even on the radar!

Governors: Dems looking good in NH and VT; Kasich takes OH, and Charlie Crist ahead of Rick Scott, with 3.5 million votes counted, by about the population of Los Alamitos (a 0.3% lead.)

Senate: Independent Greg Orman leading by 3 in early tally in Kansas!  Dems Peters in MI and Hagan in NC both up by about 9 in early tally. Scott Brown losing in NH by 15% with 11% in.

5:35: Bad news for Dems in one big Governor’s race — with 62% in, Rick Scott is up by 2.5%, but the urban counties that go Dem may be coming up last.  Very early tallies have Republicans up in Illinois, Michigan, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island(!)  But those aren’t so significant; Pennsylvania has been called to switch to Dem based solely on the exit polls.

6:05: The story of the night so far is looking to be Mark Warner’s unexpected likely loss in the Virginia Senate race.   With 77% in, he’s still down by 5 points to political strategist Ed Gillespie.  But if Mary Landrieu holds on to her seat in Louisiana without a runoff, as she’s currently doing in the very early tally, that would oppose and balance that one.  If.

Texas Governor already called for Greg Abbott over Wendy Davis with just 3% in.  In Florida, with 81% in, or 5.2 million votes, Rick Scott leads by about the population of Fullerton.  “Safe” Democratic incumbent is trailing by 5 in Vermont; but “Endangered” one is leading by 5 in Colorado.  Dems also trailing with enough votes in to take the margins seriously in IL, MA, MI, and RI.

In the Senate, CO and KS look like squeakers.

6:35: Senate: With 1.8 million votes (48%) in, Kay Hagen leads in North Carolina by about the population of La Palma.  But with 1.9 million (90%) votes counted in Virginia, Mark Warner is now only down by about a Los Alamitos.  But incumbent Mark Udall looks like he will lose in Colorado; down about 9% with 42% counted.  Kansas is even.

Governor: With 42% counted in Colorado, incumbent John Hickenlooper is down 2.5%.  What his means for legal marijuana there, I do not know.  Dems now ahead by about 5% in KS, IL, MN, and RI; GOP ahead in MA (!), VT (!!), MI and WI, with Rick Scott still almost 100,000 up in FL.

7:05: Senate: Louisiana now looks to be headed to a runoff, which Democrat Mary Landrieu is expected to lose.  Mark Warner is now about 18,000 votes behind his opponent in VA, with 6% let to count; given the likelihood that those are urban areas, that’s doable.  Montana has now been called as the 4th state to switch to the GOP — they need a net gain of 6 to take control.  Kansas is trending Republican, so that would take away a hoped-for Dem gain.  Colorado now looks like it will be #5.  North Carolina is now even, with a slight GOP lead.   Nothing in yet from Iowa.  NH has been called for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen — but she’s only ahead by 1.5 points with 48% in, so it’s not clear why.

Governors: the only shift so far is Democrats trading Arkansas for Pennsylvania.  Shumlin is now up 2.5% in VT; Martha Coakley is up by 0.1% in MA.  It’s looking like holds in MN, WI, MI, and IL — the latter three of which are somewhat surprising.

7:35: Senate: Colorado has been called as the fifth state to switch to GOP.  Kansas no longer looks like it’s going to compensate for that.

With 99% in, Mark Warner is now up by a little over 2,400 votes out of 2.1 million cast.  If it holds, and the trend has been going Warner’s way, this is when whoever at the National Senate Republican Committee decided not to pour more money into the race gets to commit ritual suicide.

In North Carolina, with 82% counted, Kay Hagan now trails by 50,000 votes out of 2.5 million cast.  The trend has been against her.  Those voting restrictions that the Supreme Court left in place will surely have decided this race if she loses.  And that’s a vicious constitutional scandal.

With 12% in, Bruce Braley is up by 12% in Iowa.  His opponent Joni Ernst could be the “Oliver North” of this election.  North lost the Virginia Senate race in the 1994 GOP sweep, in which he’d otherwise have been the headliner of the entering class and by now probably a former President.  I had the pleasure of working on the independent campaign that plagued him until he went cuckoo and finally turned off the press.

Governor: Martha Coakley is literally up by 100 votes out of 1.5 million in the Massachsetts Governor’s race.  In Connecticut, the incumbent Democrat has slipped behind.  Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn is also now down 2% in Illinois with 71% in.  The incumbent Dem is losing in Colorado, and the incumbent Republican is closing in on the Dem in Kansas.

 


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)