When Obama Speaks, Who Listens?

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Let me say first I am looking forward to hearing President Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress. The “not quite state of the union” speech should be interesting. And, hopefully, it will provide a good roadmap of where the President intends to go for the next four years.

Whats not so good is what he is likely to say. See, no matter what the “spin” is, whether its “landslide” (no, fewer electoral votes than Bill Clinton is no landslide) or “bi-partisan”, Barack Obama is speaking to his constituency that gives him his authority. Specifically, the unions, the government workers, those who have come to believe they are dependent on the government for their stability, and those who think that tax refund is something the government is “giving” you. Without their generous support, we could all live our lives free of government intereference. But I digress…

In fact, this President has LESS SUPPORT across party lines than any President since they started keeping track in Eisenhowers day.

After a month in the hot seat, 90 percent of Democrats approve of his work, dropping to 67 percent of independents and 37 percent of Republicans. The 53-point difference between Democrats and Republicans in assessing Obama is numerically the biggest in data back to Eisenhower

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Reagan started with 89 percent approval among Republicans, 71 percent among independents and 56 percent among Democrats. Bush’s first-month approval ratings from these groups were 90, 74 and 64 percent, respectively. Those are 18- and 33-point gaps for Reagan, 16- and 26-point gaps for Bush.

That changed with Bill Clinton: He started with 86 percent approval from Democrats, but just 59 percent from independents and 40 percent from Republicans – gaps of 27 and 46 points, respectively. Then George W. Bush – 86 percent in his party, but dropping to 54 percent among independents (-32 points) and 37 percent among Democrats, 49 points lower than in his political base.

Now, you can argue that there is some similiarity between George W’s numbers and Obamas. But if we are the “hey, the polarity is the same” argument, then those who trumpet Obama as bipartisan have already lost.

He isn’t. He won’t be tonight.

Also, I am precognitive in the chime I will hear from the armadillo crowd. “It has to do with the number of independents or decline to state!”

Answer: No, it doesn’t.

As this chart will teach those who trumpet the “third way” as anything other than belonging to the path of oblivion, the group is made up equally of those who have failed to register as Republican or Democrat. And they DO NOT vote third party when it matters.

So please don’t bother going there.

Later tonight: The robust and erudite RESPONSE to the “Not Quite the State of the Union” speech by Bobby Jindahl.

About Terry Crowley